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Baltimore Ravens 27 at Cincinnati Bengals 24. Final.
Bengals -3.5 upsetO 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 2
Baltimore Ravens 27, Bengals 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q3 10:48, 2nd and 8, on Geno Stone — 21.8 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:48 · 2nd and 8
Geno Stone
Ravens
(10:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 26-G.Stone at BAL 2. 26-G.Stone ran ob at BAL 38 for 36 yards (9-J.Burrow).
Bengals closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Baltimore Ravens 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 10:48, Ravens +21.8% win probability on one snap.
21.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBengalsQ2 13:31(13:31) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to CIN 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-C.Jones for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.7pts
Lamar JacksonRavensQ4 2:35(2:35) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right end to BAL 44 for 12 yards (59-A.Davis-Gaither).
12.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Bengals at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Bengals at 3 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 49% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.32 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at +0.04 expected points per dropback.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Ravens163 of 175 plays carry both curves
(10:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 26-G.Stone at BAL 2. 26-G.Stone ran ob at BAL 38 for 36 yards (9-J.Burrow).
Swing −21.8 for BengalsExpected points −6.63 for BengalsThe model had Ravens 5 points higher than the market did.play 100
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 10:48BAL +22% win prob(10:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 26-G.Stone at BAL 2. 26-G.Stone ran ob at BAL 38 for 36 yards (9-J.Burrow).
2nd · 13:31BAL +14% win prob(13:31) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to CIN 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-C.Jones for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:35CIN +12% win prob(2:35) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right end to BAL 44 for 12 yards (59-A.Davis-Gaither).
4th · 3:32CIN +12% win prob(3:32) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:39CIN +11% win prob(10:39) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers to CIN 10 for 52 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
1st · 3:23BAL +9% win prob(3:23) 9-J.Tucker 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Tucker's 40-yard field goal with 0:05 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
4th3:32Tee Higgins·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+727–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryBengals
Ravens7–1Bengals
416Total yards282
6.0Yards per play4.9
58%Success rate49%
64%Third-down rate67%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays3
23First downs17
0Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Ravens ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.24Ravens: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.06Bengals: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.32Ravens: +0.32 expected points added per play
+0.04Bengals: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Ravens: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.13Bengals: +0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 69 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Bengals’s 57 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 3, Bengals 4.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 25 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Bengals2.5%
leaned — stayed blocked · −14.0 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.91× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteCIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.5%, 14.0 points below their season mean of 16.5% and 1.9 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass−17% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(10:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 26-G.Stone at BAL 2. 26-G.Stone ran ob at BAL 38 for 36 yards (9-J.Burrow).
Q3 10:48 · Bengals · 2nd & 8 at BAL 17 · gained nothing · -6.63 EP · −17.2% win probability
161 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 80 yards from the CIN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
47%
Yards
697
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.1671%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.2463%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.4136%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.1833%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.0640%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Ravens6Bengals0
Ravens7Bengals0
Touchdown16 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bengals 1
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 31
No good7 plays, from the Ravens 33 to the Bengals 41
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 49 to the Ravens 49
The period ended3 plays, from the Ravens 10 to the Ravens 15
2nd quarter52 plays
Ravens7Bengals6
Touchdown5 plays, from the Ravens 17 to the Ravens 27
Ravens7Bengals7
Ravens10Bengals7
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bengals 26
Ravens10Bengals10
Field goal14 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Ravens 9
Ravens13Bengals10
Field goal20 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bengals 13
3rd quarter38 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Ravens 17
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Ravens19Bengals10
Ravens20Bengals10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Ravens 38 to the Bengals 3
Ravens20Bengals16
Ravens20Bengals17
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Ravens 3
The period ended7 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bengals 44
4th quarter48 plays
Ravens26Bengals17
Ravens27Bengals17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 43 to the Bengals 17
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 30
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Ravens 37
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Ravens27Bengals23
Ravens27Bengals24
Touchdown17 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Ravens 4
The period ended11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bengals 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
