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2023 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 17, 2023 · Paycor Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

27

Cincinnati Bengals

24

CIN -3.5 upsetO 45.5 ✓

Baltimore Ravens 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 10:48, BAL +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CIN ↑BAL ↓
Q3 · 10:48BAL 13 — CIN 10CIN ball · 2nd & 8CIN 60%

(10:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 26-G.Stone at BAL 2. 26-G.Stone ran ob at BAL 38 for 36 yards (9-J.Burrow).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 10:48BAL +22% win prob(10:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 26-G.Stone at BAL 2. 26-G.Stone ran ob at BAL 38 for 36 yards (9-J.Burrow).
  2. Q2 · 13:31BAL +14% win prob(13:31) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to CIN 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-C.Jones for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 2:35CIN +12% win prob(2:35) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right end to BAL 44 for 12 yards (59-A.Davis-Gaither).
  4. Q4 · 3:32CIN +12% win prob(3:32) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:15BAL Touchdown

    (7:15) 77-D.Faalele reported in as eligible. 35-G.Edwards left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 7 — CIN 0
  2. Q2 · 13:31CIN Touchdown

    (13:31) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to CIN 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-C.Jones for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 7 — CIN 7
  3. Q2 · 9:19BAL Field goal

    (9:19) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 10 — CIN 7
  4. Q2 · 3:05CIN Field goal

    (3:05) 2-E.McPherson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

    Score after this play: BAL 10 — CIN 10
  5. Q2 · 0:05BAL Field goal

    (:05) 9-J.Tucker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 13 — CIN 10
  6. Q3 · 8:44BAL Touchdown

    (8:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 20 — CIN 10
  7. Q3 · 2:38CIN Touchdown

    (2:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 20 — CIN 17
  8. Q4 · 11:42BAL Touchdown

    (11:42) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 27 — CIN 17
  9. Q4 · 3:32CIN Touchdown

    (3:32) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 27 — CIN 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRavensBengals
Offensive plays6957
Total yards416 (edge)282
Yards per play6.0 (edge)4.9
Expected points added / play0.24 (edge)0.06
Success rate58% (edge)49%
Dropback rate58%75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.32 (edge)0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.14 (edge)0.13
Third downs9/1410/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps23 (edge)17
Sacks taken0 (edge)1
Turnovers11

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

24/33, 237 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

12.4 expected points added · +5.8% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

27/41, 222 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

1.6 expected points added · +2.4% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

10 att, 62 yds, 1 TD

5.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

13 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

8/12 for 89 yds, 2 TD

31% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Nelson AgholorWR

5/6 for 63 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BALBAL 2515707:48Touchdown +7
2CINCIN 255121:56Punt
3BALBAL 337261:58Missed field goal
4CINCIN 49422:06Punt
5BALBAL 106122:58Defensive touchdown
6BALBAL 2511493:59Field goal +3
7CINCIN 2513496:14Field goal +3
8BALBAL 2513683:01Field goal +3
9CINCIN 259634:21Interception
10BALBAL 385622:00Touchdown +7
11CINCIN 2515716:05Touchdown +7
12BALBAL 2514855:56Touchdown +7
13CINCIN 25552:02Punt
14BALBAL 314111:56Punt
15CINCIN 2017804:12Touchdown +7
16BALBAL 258333:28End of game

8 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 85 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson24/3323720012.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Gus Edwards10626.215.0
Lamar Jackson12544.50-1.3
Justice Hill11413.70-1.2
Devin Duvernay3155.00-0.2
Zay Flowers166.000.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Nelson Agholor5663118%5.9
Zay Flowers4562015%0.3
Mark Andrews5845124%3.6
Odell Beckham3429012%2.7
Rashod Bateman331809%1.2
Justice Hill331209%0.1
Isaiah Likely11803%0.6
Devin Duvernay03009%-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Patrick Queen530.000
Geno Stone420.011
Ar'Darius Washington320.001
Roquan Smith230.000
Kyle Hamilton310.000
Brandon Stephens120.000
Jadeveon Clowney211.001
Travis Jones110.000
David Ojabo200.000
Ronald Darby110.001

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Burrow27/412222111.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Joe Mixon13594.502.2
Joe Burrow155.000.0
Chase Brown122.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tee Higgins81289231%2.7
Tyler Boyd6852021%4.7
Joe Mixon4536013%0.2
Ja'Marr Chase5831021%-0.1
Irv Smith2410010%-1.5
Trayveon Williams22405%-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Dax Hill830.001
Nick Scott450.000
Germaine Pratt720.000
Logan Wilson330.000
Cam Taylor-Britt500.000
Mike Hilton410.001
B.J. Hill210.000
Sam Hubbard120.000
Chidobe Awuzie300.001
Akeem Davis-Gaither200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CIN -3.5
Closing total
45.5
BAL moneyline
+145
CIN moneyline
-175

Bengals closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 51 — over by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
BAL 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Zac Taylor

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.