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2023 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 17, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium

Chicago Bears

17

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

27

TB -2.5 ✓O 41 ✓

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27–17. Biggest swing: Q4 2:12, CHI +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TB ↑CHI ↓
Q4 · 2:12CHI 17 — TB 26CHI ball · 1st & 11TB 78%

(2:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle intended for 24-K.Herbert INTERCEPTED by 7-S.Barrett at CHI 4. 7-S.Barrett for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 2:12CHI +20% win prob(2:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle intended for 24-K.Herbert INTERCEPTED by 7-S.Barrett at CHI 4. 7-S.Barrett for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 13:15TB +15% win prob(13:15) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at CHI 7 for 70 yards (33-J.Johnson).
  3. Q2 · 14:56CHI +13% win prob(14:56) 4-C.McLaughlin 40 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-R.Green), Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda, recovered by TB-5-J.Camarda at 50.
  4. Q3 · 4:14TB +12% win prob(4:14) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:06TB Field goal

    (9:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: CHI 0 — TB 3
  2. Q1 · 6:23CHI Touchdown

    (6:23) 1-J.Fields scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 7 — TB 3
  3. Q2 · 10:58TB Touchdown

    (10:58) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 7 — TB 10
  4. Q2 · 2:00CHI Field goal

    (2:00) 8-C.Santos 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

    Score after this play: CHI 10 — TB 10
  5. Q2 · 0:03TB Field goal

    (:03) 4-C.McLaughlin 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    Score after this play: CHI 10 — TB 13
  6. Q3 · 4:14TB Touchdown

    (4:14) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 10 — TB 20
  7. Q4 · 6:23CHI Touchdown

    (6:23) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep middle to 10-C.Claypool for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 17 — TB 20
  8. Q4 · 2:12TB Touchdown

    (2:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle intended for 24-K.Herbert INTERCEPTED by 7-S.Barrett at CHI 4. 7-S.Barrett for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 17 — TB 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBearsBuccaneers
Offensive plays5166
Total yards236439 (edge)
Yards per play4.66.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.160.23 (edge)
Success rate41%44% (edge)
Dropback rate71%58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.220.37 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.040.05 (edge)
Third downs6/138/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)69 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1418 (edge)
Sacks taken60 (edge)
Turnovers30 (edge)

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

26/34, 317 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

13.3 expected points added · +15.6% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

16/29, 211 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-8.6 expected points added · -10.5% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

17 att, 73 yds, 1 TD

4.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Khalil HerbertRB

7 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

6/8 for 171 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 13.5 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

D.J. MooreWR

6/7 for 104 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TBTB 2513775:57Field goal +3
2CHICHI 258752:46Touchdown +7
3TBTB 2512586:28Missed field goal
4CHI504-141:34Punt
5TBTB 235772:22Touchdown +7
6CHICHI 25521:34Punt
7TBTB 194182:30Punt
8CHICHI 2010514:54Field goal +3
9TBTB 2513621:55Field goal +3
10CHICHI 258123:29Punt
11TBTB 1113847:25Touchdown +7
12CHICHI 2511213:34Fumble
13TBTB 20491:58Punt
14CHICHI 16401:03Punt
15TBTB 355172:21Punt
16CHICHI 109983:53Touchdown +7
17TBTB 2510373:53Punt
18CHICHI 7100:21Defensive touchdown
19CHICHI 254-90:56Interception
20TBCHI 25201:07End of game

7 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 98 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Fields16/29211126-8.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Khalil Herbert7355.003.4
Roschon Johnson4328.000.1
Justin Fields430.81-1.9
Velus Jones1-3-3.00-1.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
D.J. Moore67104025%6.8
Cole Kmet4638021%2.6
Chase Claypool3836129%-2.6
Khalil Herbert1323011%-6.1
Roschon Johnson221007%-0.8
Robert Tonyan02007%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tremaine Edmunds570.000
T.J. Edwards370.000
Tyrique Stevenson330.000
Greg Stroman420.000
Elijah Hicks240.000
Jaquan Brisker140.001
Jaylon Johnson310.000
Jack Sanborn220.000
Gervon Dexter400.000
Justin Jones210.000

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield26/3431710013.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rachaad White17734.314.6
Baker Mayfield6172.80-2.5
Chase Edmonds2126.00-0.1
Deven Thompkins11111.000.6
Sean Tucker870.90-3.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mike Evans68171125%13.5
Chris Godwin5858025%0.4
Cade Otton6641019%0.9
Rachaad White5530016%1.0
Trey Palmer122006%0.3
Rakim Jarrett11703%0.4
David Wells22-1006%-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ryan Neal340.000
Jamel Dean610.000
Antoine Winfield210.002
Joe Tryon302.000
Christian Izien120.011
Vita Vea211.500
Shaquil Barrett201.011
Greg Gaines110.000
Devin White020.001
Lavonte David110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TB -2.5
Closing total
41
CHI moneyline
+114
TB moneyline
-135

Buccaneers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 41; the game landed 44 — over by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
CHI 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches
Matt Eberflus vs Todd Bowles