For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2023 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 17, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
BearsChicago17
BY 10final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay27
Chicago Bears 17 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27. Final.
Buccaneers -2.5 ✓O 41 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, Bears 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:12, 1st and 11, on Shaquil Barrett — 19.7 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:12 · 1st and 11
Shaquil Barrett
Buccaneers
(2:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle intended for 24-K.Herbert INTERCEPTED by 7-S.Barrett at CHI 4. 7-S.Barrett for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
92°F
Buccaneers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27–17. Biggest swing: Q4 2:12, Buccaneers +19.7% win probability on one snap.
19.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chase McLaughlinBearsQ2 14:56(14:56) 4-C.McLaughlin 40 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-R.Green), Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda, recovered by TB-5-J.Camarda at 50.
13.5pts
Mike EvansBuccaneersQ2 13:15(13:15) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at CHI 7 for 70 yards (33-J.Johnson).
15.4pts
What separated them
Red zone
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Buccaneers at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — no giveaways, against Bears at 3 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.16 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.37 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.22 expected points per dropback.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Bears157 of 165 plays carry both curves
(2:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle intended for 24-K.Herbert INTERCEPTED by 7-S.Barrett at CHI 4. 7-S.Barrett for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +19.7 for BuccaneersExpected points +7.09 for BuccaneersModel and market agree here.play 157
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:12CHI +20% win prob(2:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle intended for 24-K.Herbert INTERCEPTED by 7-S.Barrett at CHI 4. 7-S.Barrett for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:15TB +15% win prob(13:15) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at CHI 7 for 70 yards (33-J.Johnson).
2nd · 14:56CHI +13% win prob(14:56) 4-C.McLaughlin 40 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-R.Green), Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda, recovered by TB-5-J.Camarda at 50.
3rd · 4:14TB +12% win prob(4:14) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:36TB +10% win prob(7:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 2-D.Moore ran ob at TB 6 for 31 yards (31-A.Winfield) [9-J.Tryon].
2nd · 0:31TB +9% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 10-T.Palmer ran ob at CHI 23 for 20 yards (22-E.Hicks).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chase McLaughlin's 25-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 2nd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:06Chase McLaughlin·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+30–3
Buccaneers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.16Bears: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.23Buccaneers: +0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.22Bears: −0.22 expected points added per play
+0.37Buccaneers: +0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Bears: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.05Buccaneers: +0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 51 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 66 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Bears 2, Buccaneers 5.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 14 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.8 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.52× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Buccaneers25.0%
leaned — got home · +11.8 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.53× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteCHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 65.8%, 14.7 points above their season mean of 51.1% and 1.7 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
58Darnell WrightT · Every snap100%53 snaps
65Cody WhitehairG · Every snap100%53 snaps
70Braxton JonesT · Every snap100%53 snaps
69Ja'Tyre CarterG · Every snap100%53 snaps
1Justin FieldsQB · Every snap100%53 snaps
62Lucas PatrickC · Full-time96%51 snaps
2D.J. MooreWR · Full-time91%48 snaps
10Chase ClaypoolWR · Heavy rotation79%42 snaps
85Cole KmetTE · Heavy rotation68%36 snaps
24Khalil HerbertRB · Heavy rotation60%32 snaps
15Trent TaylorWR · Rotational43%23 snaps
23Roschon JohnsonRB · Rotational42%22 snaps
18Robert TonyanTE · Rotational34%18 snaps
11Darnell MooneyWR · Rotational28%15 snaps
13Tyler ScottWR · Situational23%12 snaps
84Marcedes LewisTE · Situational15%8 snaps
35Khari BlasingameFB · Situational9%5 snaps
12Velus JonesWR · Situational8%4 snaps
67Dan FeeneyC · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Josh BlackwellCBKhalid KareemDENate DavisGTyson BagentQBD'Onta ForemanRBEquanimeous St. BrownWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Fields pass−18% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle intended for 24-K.Herbert INTERCEPTED by 7-S.Barrett at CHI 4. 7-S.Barrett for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:12 · Bears · 1st & 11 at CHI 6 · gained nothing · -7.09 EP · −18.4% win probability
155 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 90 yards from the CHI 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
40%
Yards
673
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.3756%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.2881%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.0148%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.0250%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.4420%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Bears0Buccaneers3
Field goal14 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Bears 8
Bears6Buccaneers3
Bears7Buccaneers3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Buccaneers 1
The period ended12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Bears 17
2nd quarter49 plays
No good2 plays
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Bears7Buccaneers9
Bears7Buccaneers10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Bears 4
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 27
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Buccaneers 28
Bears10Buccaneers10
Field goal11 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Buccaneers 24
Bears10Buccaneers13
Field goal16 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Bears 6
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 39
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Bears10Buccaneers19
Bears10Buccaneers20
Touchdown14 plays, from the Buccaneers 11 to the Bears 21
Punt11 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 46
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter45 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Buccaneers 29
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Buccaneers 42
Bears16Buccaneers20
Bears17Buccaneers20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bears 10 to the Buccaneers 20
The period ended13 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Bears 43
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Bears17Buccaneers26
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bears 7 to the Bears 12
Bears17Buccaneers27
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 27
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
