2023 Week 2 · Mon, Sep 18, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium

Cleveland Browns

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

CLE -2.5 upsetO 39 ✓Browns closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 26–22. Biggest swing: Q4 7:06, CLE +41% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 7:06CLE 22 — PIT 25CLE ball · 2nd & 9CLE 77%

(7:06) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 13 for -7 yards (56-A.Highsmith). FUMBLES (56-A.Highsmith) [56-A.Highsmith], RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at CLE 16. 90-T.Watt for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 7:06CLE +41% win prob(7:06) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 13 for -7 yards (56-A.Highsmith). FUMBLES (56-A.Highsmith) [56-A.Highsmith], RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at CLE 16. 90-T.Watt for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 11:07PIT +23% win prob(11:07) (Shotgun) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 34-J.Ford right end to PIT 1 for 69 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q2 · 6:16PIT +21% win prob(6:16) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 14-G.Pickens for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Tomlinson].
Q4 · 1:05CLE +20% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 15:00PIT Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left intended for 88-H.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 56-A.Highsmith (39-M.Fitzpatrick) at CLE 30. 56-A.Highsmith for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 0 — PIT 7
Q1 · 8:50CLE Field goal
(8:50) 7-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: CLE 3 — PIT 7
Q2 · 14:09CLE Touchdown
(14:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 34-J.Ford for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: CLE 11 — PIT 7
Q2 · 9:14PIT Field goal
(9:14) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: CLE 11 — PIT 10
Q2 · 6:16PIT Touchdown
(6:16) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 14-G.Pickens for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Tomlinson].
Score after this play: CLE 11 — PIT 16
Q2 · 0:27CLE Field goal
(:27) 7-D.Hopkins 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: CLE 14 — PIT 16
Q3 · 11:51PIT Field goal
(11:51) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: CLE 14 — PIT 19
Q3 · 10:05CLE Touchdown
(10:05) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 20-P.Strong left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: CLE 22 — PIT 19
Q4 · 7:06PIT Touchdown
(7:06) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 13 for -7 yards (56-A.Highsmith). FUMBLES (56-A.Highsmith) [56-A.Highsmith], RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at CLE 16. 90-T.Watt for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 22 — PIT 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Steelers
Offensive plays	83	51
Total yards	412 (edge)	258
Yards per play	5.0	5.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.21 (edge)	-0.39
Success rate	41% (edge)	27%
Dropback rate	59%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.34 (edge)	-0.42
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.34
Third downs	5/17 (edge)	4/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	10
Sacks taken	6	2 (edge)
Turnovers	4	2 (edge)

Browns outgained Steelers 412–258 but lost the turnover battle 4–2. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Deshaun WatsonQB

22/40, 235 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-16.0 expected points added · -7.5% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Kenny PickettQB

15/30, 222 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-7.8 expected points added · -15.3% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Jerome FordRB

16 att, 106 yds, 0 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

10 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

George PickensWR

4/10 for 127 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · -0.2 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Amari CooperWR

7/10 for 90 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 25	2	0	0:09	Defensive touchdown
2	CLE	CLE 25	12	60	6:05	Field goal +3
3	PIT	PIT 9	4	7	0:39	Interception
4	CLE	PIT 19	4	-6	1:29	Missed field goal
5	PIT	PIT 33	4	12	2:24	Punt
6	CLE	CLE 5	8	53	3:52	Fumble
7	PIT	PIT 42	1	0	0:14	Fumble
8	CLE	PIT 23	5	25	1:06	Touchdown +8
9	PIT	PIT 25	8	35	2:47	Punt
10	CLE	CLE 9	4	-2	0:44	Punt
11	PIT	CLE 39	4	5	1:20	Field goal +3
12	CLE	CLE 25	5	3	1:30	Punt
13	PIT	PIT 18	5	82	1:36	Touchdown +6
14	CLE	CLE 25	5	-1	0:57	Punt
15	PIT	PIT 47	7	12	2:22	Punt
16	CLE	CLE 25	7	33	2:24	Field goal +3
17	PIT	PIT 25	2	0	0:22	End of half
18	PIT	PIT 25	10	44	3:13	Field goal +3
19	CLE	CLE 25	6	77	1:46	Touchdown +8
20	PIT	PIT 25	7	27	2:31	Punt
21	CLE	CLE 20	9	43	3:31	Punt
22	PIT	PIT 20	6	39	2:48	Punt
23	CLE	CLE 1	11	78	5:36	Fumble
24	PIT	PIT 44	4	-11	1:34	Punt
25	CLE	CLE 6	5	10	2:03	Defensive touchdown
26	CLE	CLE 25	7	8	2:21	Punt
27	PIT	PIT 25	4	6	1:42	Punt
28	CLE	CLE 25	7	31	1:55	Turnover on downs
29	PIT	50	2	0	1:00	End of game

7 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 82 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	22/40	235	1	1	6	-16.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jerome Ford	16	106	6.6	0	1.9
Nick Chubb	10	64	6.4	0	1.6
Deshaun Watson	6	22	3.7	0	-3.5
Elijah Moore	1	5	5.0	0	0.2
Pierre Strong	2	1	0.5	1	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amari Cooper	7	10	90	0	25%	7.8
David Njoku	4	4	48	0	10%	-1.3
Elijah Moore	3	9	36	0	23%	-0.9
David Bell	3	3	27	0	8%	2.5
Jerome Ford	3	4	25	1	10%	0.8
Donovan Peoples-Jones	1	4	7	0	10%	-2.7
Jordan Akins	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.3
Pierre Strong	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4
Harrison Bryant	0	2	0	0	5%	-8.3
Marquise Goodwin	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Grant Delpit	3	2	0.0	1	1
Denzel Ward	4	0	0.0	0	2
Shelby Harris	1	3	0.5	0	1
Anthony Walker	3	1	0.0	0	0
Maurice Hurst	0	3	0.5	0	1
Juan Thornhill	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	3	0	0.0	0	0
Greg Newsome	3	0	0.0	0	0
Sione Takitaki	2	0	1.0	0	0
Pierre Strong	1	0	0.0	0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kenny Pickett	15/30	222	1	1	2	-7.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Najee Harris	10	43	4.3	-3.3
Jaylen Warren	6	20	3.3	-0.5
Calvin Austin	1	-2	-2.0	-1.0
Kenny Pickett	4	-6	-1.5	-3.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Pickens	4	10	127	1	34%	-0.2
Jaylen Warren	4	6	66	0	21%	1.9
Allen Robinson	2	3	12	0	10%	-0.5
Calvin Austin	1	4	10	0	14%	-1.4
Miles Boykin	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.7
Pat Freiermuth	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.6
Najee Harris	1	3	0	0	10%	-2.0
Gunner Olszewski	1	1	0	0	3%	-6.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kwon Alexander	8	1	0.0	0	0
Cole Holcomb	2	5	0.0	0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	4	1	0.0	0	2
Alex Highsmith	3	2	1.0	1	1
Keanu Neal	3	2	0.0	0	1
T.J. Watt	2	2	1.0	0	1
Chandon Sullivan	2	2	0.0	0	1
Levi Wallace	4	0	0.0	0	0
Damontae Kazee	4	0	0.0	0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	1	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -2.5
Closing total: 39
CLE moneyline: -148
PIT moneyline: +124

Browns closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 39; the game landed 48 — over by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: CLE 8 days · PIT 8 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Mike Tomlin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.