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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 2 · Mon, Sep 18, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 2
It turned at Q4 7:06, 2nd and 9, on Deshaun Watson — 40.6 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:06 · 2nd and 9
Deshaun Watson
Steelers
(7:06) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 13 for -7 yards (56-A.Highsmith). FUMBLES (56-A.Highsmith) [56-A.Highsmith], RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at CLE 16. 90-T.Watt for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Pittsburgh Steelers 26–22. Biggest swing: Q4 7:06, Steelers +40.6% win probability on one snap.
40.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Steelers at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 27% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 2 giveaways, against Browns at 4 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns owned this one and still lost it — -0.02 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.34 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(7:06) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 13 for -7 yards (56-A.Highsmith). FUMBLES (56-A.Highsmith) [56-A.Highsmith], RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at CLE 16. 90-T.Watt for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
T.J. Watt's 16-yard touchdown with 7:06 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
George Pickens71-yd TD catch71-yard touchdown catchfrom Kenny Pickett · two-point no good+611–16
T.J. Watt16-yd defence TD16-yard touchdownthe defence scored itLead never changed again+722–269 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categorySteelers
Browns ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 83 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Steelers’s 51 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Steelers 1.
Browns outgained Steelers 412-258 but lost the turnover battle 4-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 75.0% in week 1 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.3 points.
CLE's play-action rate turned over: 45.7% in week 1 against 14.3% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Browns-0.9 ptsright on their number · +2.9 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 81 snaps
Steelers1.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · +7.3 vs their -6.1 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 50 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 84%
Tendencies room →Browns51.6%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 53.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 62 early downs
Steelers52.8%right on their number · +4.7 vs their 48.1%, and they swing ±14.1 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 36 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 49%
Tendencies room →Browns14.3%inside their normal wobble · −8.5 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Steelers18.8%right on their number · +2.7 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -39% to 103%
Fourth Down room →Browns—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 36.8%.
Steelers0.0%leaned — took the kick · −28.2 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±26.3 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 62%
Tendencies room →Browns18.8%inside their normal wobble · −10.8 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Steelers18.4%inside their normal wobble · −10.3 vs their 28.6%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 37%
Tendencies room →Browns25.0%inside their normal wobble · +7.0 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Steelers22.4%leaned — got home · +6.5 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+1.32× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
PIT's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 22.4%, 6.5 points above their season mean of 15.9% and 1.3 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
22/40, 235 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-16.0 expected points added · -7.5% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
15/30, 222 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-7.8 expected points added · -15.3% completion over expected
Receiving · PIT
4/10 for 127 yds, 1 TD
34% of team targets · -0.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jerome Ford banked 9.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome FordRB · Committee Back | 24.1 | +9.2 | 49% | 45% | 10% | 2% | 16 car, 106 yd · 3/4, 25 yd, 1 TD |
| George PickensWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.7 | +8.7 | 85% | 94% | 34% | 59% | 4/10, 127 yd, 1 TD |
| Amari CooperWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.0 | +1.2 | 72% | 80% | 25% | 34% | 7/10, 90 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Committee Back | 12.6 | +2.0 | 43% | 47% | 21% | 0% | 6 car, 20 yd · 4/6, 66 yd |
| Deshaun WatsonQB · Starter QB | 11.6 | −5.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/40, 235 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 22 yd |
| Kenny PickettQB · Starter QB | 10.3 | +2.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/30, 222 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, -6 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Featured Receiver | 7.1 | −5.2 | 77% | 78% | 23% | 30% | 1 car, 5 yd · 3/9, 36 yd |
| David NjokuTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | +1.0 | 85% | 88% | 10% | 2% | 4/4, 48 yd |
| Nick ChubbRB | 6.4 | +1.5 | 21% | 12% | 0% | — | 10 car, 64 yd |
| Pierre StrongRB | 6.1 | −1.2 | 15% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 2 car, 1 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| David BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | +1.9 | 13% | 16% | 8% | 2% | 3/3, 27 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 5.3 | −4.1 | 57% | 53% | 10% | 0% | 10 car, 43 yd · 1/3, 0 yd |
| Allen RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −1.3 | 87% | 81% | 10% | 10% | 2/3, 12 yd |
| Calvin AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −4.3 | 76% | 88% | 14% | 37% | 1 car, -2 yd · 1/4, 10 yd |
| Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −3.9 | 87% | 80% | 10% | 4% | 1/4, 7 yd |
| Miles BoykinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | 0.0 | 10% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.2 | 76% | 94% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Harrison BryantTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.9 | 30% | 22% | 5% | 2% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Marquise GoodwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.7 | 17% | 14% | 5% | 21% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Connor HeywardTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | 6% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational Receiver | -1.0 | −2.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:06) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 13 for -7 yards (56-A.Highsmith). FUMBLES (56-A.Highsmith) [56-A.Highsmith], RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at CLE 16. 90-T.Watt for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 7:06 · Browns · 2nd & 9 at CLE 20 · lost 4 · -7.21 EP · −41.9% win probability
176 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 185 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 180. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 82 yards from the PIT 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
Browns0
Steelers6Browns0Steelers7Browns3Steelers7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
Browns9Steelers7Browns11Steelers7Browns11Steelers10How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Browns11Steelers16Browns14Steelers16Browns14Steelers19How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Browns20Steelers19Browns22Steelers19How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Browns22Steelers25Browns22Steelers26How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Steelers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 22/40 | 235 | 1 | 1 | 6 | −16.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | 16 | 106 | 6.6 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Nick Chubb | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Deshaun Watson | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 | −3.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 7 | 10 | 90 | 0 | 25% | +7.8 |
| David Njoku | 4 | 4 | 48 | 0 | 10% | −1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Delpit | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Denzel Ward | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Shelby Harris | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Anthony Walker |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 15/30 | 222 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −7.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_02_CLE_PIT
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Browns closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 39; the game landed 48 — over by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Pierre Strong | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | +0.6 |
| Elijah Moore | 3 | 9 | 36 | 0 | 23% | −0.9 |
| David Bell | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 8% | +2.5 |
| Jerome Ford | 3 | 4 | 25 | 1 | 10% | +0.8 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 10% | −2.7 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Pierre Strong | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Harrison Bryant | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −8.3 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.3 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Maurice Hurst | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Juan Thornhill | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Newsome | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sione Takitaki | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 |
| 43 |
| 4.3 |
| 0 |
| −3.3 |
| Jaylen Warren | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Calvin Austin | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 4 | -6 | -1.5 | 0 | −3.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 4 | 10 | 127 | 1 | 34% | −0.2 |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 6 | 66 | 0 | 21% | +1.9 |
| Allen Robinson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10% | −0.5 |
| Calvin Austin | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 14% | −1.4 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Najee Harris | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −2.0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −6.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kwon Alexander | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Holcomb | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Alex Highsmith | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Keanu Neal | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| T.J. Watt | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chandon Sullivan | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Levi Wallace | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damontae Kazee | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
