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2023 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 17, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Green Bay Packers

24

Atlanta FalconsWinner

25

ATL -3 no coverO 40.5 ✓

Atlanta Falcons 25–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:42, GB +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ATL ↑GB ↓
Q4 · 0:42GB 24 — ATL 25GB ball · 4th & 10ATL 82%

(:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 83-S.Toure to GB 38 for 13 yards (33-T.Flowers). PENALTY on GB-83-S.Toure, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at GB 25 - No Play. The Replay Official reviewed the pass complet

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:42GB +16% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 83-S.Toure to GB 38 for 13 yards (33-T.Flowers). PENALTY on GB-83-S.Toure, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at GB 25 - No Play. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 83-S.Toure (33-T.Flowers). Penalty on GB-83-S.Toure, Illegal Shift, declined.
  2. Q4 · 2:08ATL +16% win prob(2:08) 7-B.Robinson right end to GB 16 for 7 yards (20-R.Ford).
  3. Q4 · 9:02ATL +14% win prob(9:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right to 7-B.Robinson pushed ob at GB 24 for 29 yards (20-R.Ford).
  4. Q1 · 0:47ATL +11% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love scrambles right end to ATL 19 for 24 yards (27-R.Grant).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 3:53ATL Field goal

    (3:53) 6-Y.Koo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: GB 0 — ATL 3
  2. Q2 · 13:40GB Touchdown

    (13:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 11-J.Reed for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 7 — ATL 3
  3. Q2 · 3:10GB Field goal

    (3:10) 17-A.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 10 — ATL 3
  4. Q2 · 0:16ATL Touchdown

    (:16) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 5-D.London for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [7-Q.Walker].

    Score after this play: GB 10 — ATL 9
  5. Q3 · 10:39GB Touchdown

    (10:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 13-D.Wicks for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 17 — ATL 9
  6. Q3 · 3:12ATL Field goal

    (3:12) 6-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Defensive Offside, declined.

    Score after this play: GB 17 — ATL 12
  7. Q3 · 1:01GB Touchdown

    (1:01) 63-R.Walker reported in as eligible. 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 24 — ATL 12
  8. Q4 · 11:54ATL Touchdown

    (11:54) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 24 — ATL 19
  9. Q4 · 8:13ATL Field goal

    (8:13) 6-Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: GB 24 — ATL 22
  10. Q4 · 1:01ATL Field goal

    (1:01) 6-Y.Koo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: GB 24 — ATL 25

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersFalcons
Offensive plays4677
Total yards225447 (edge)
Yards per play4.95.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.050.12 (edge)
Success rate48%49% (edge)
Dropback rate59%49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.21 (edge)0.11
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.180.12 (edge)
Third downs3/96/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)210 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1425 (edge)
Sacks taken11
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Desmond RidderQB

19/32, 237 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

3.1 expected points added · -4.1% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

14/25, 151 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

2.6 expected points added · -11.9% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

19 att, 124 yds, 0 TD

5.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

A.J. DillonRB

15 att, 55 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

6/8 for 67 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Mack HollinsWR

3/6 for 60 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 25531:06Punt
2ATLATL 203161:24Interception
3GBGB 404-121:57Punt
4ATLATL 2715716:43Field goal +3
5GBGB 1613845:17Touchdown +7
6ATLATL 179504:42Turnover on downs
7GBGB 4110445:45Field goal +3
8ATLATL 2513752:54Touchdown +6
9GBGB 25200:12End of half
10ATLATL 25500:31Punt
11GBGB 357603:58Touchdown +7
12ATLATL 2514607:24Field goal +3
13GBGB 226352:11Touchdown +7
14ATLATL 2510654:08Touchdown +7
15GBGB 25520:57Punt
16ATLATL 358442:41Field goal +3
17GBGB 25592:03Punt
18ATLATL 2712665:10Field goal +3
19GBGB 25500:19Turnover on downs
20ATLGB 25100:38End of game

10 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 84 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love14/251513012.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
A.J. Dillon15553.70-1.4
Jordan Love22311.503.1
Emanuel Wilson351.70-1.3
Patrick Taylor111.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Dontayvion Wicks2440116%2.0
Jayden Reed4837232%2.3
Romeo Doubs2330012%2.1
Luke Musgrave2325012%1.2
A.J. Dillon11804%0.6
Samori Toure12608%-1.7
Josiah Deguara22508%-0.3
Patrick Taylor01004%-0.5
Malik Heath01004%-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Quay Walker690.001
De'Vondre Campbell570.000
Darnell Savage620.000
Kenny Clark150.500
Rudy Ford320.000
Jaire Alexander500.001
Tedarrell Slaton130.000
Kingsley Enagbare310.000
Preston Smith220.000
Rasul Douglas300.012

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Desmond Ridder19/322371113.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bijan Robinson191246.505.7
Tyler Allgeier16483.00-4.3
Desmond Ridder10393.911.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Drake London6867127%3.5
Mack Hollins3660020%1.6
Bijan Robinson4548017%2.1
Jonnu Smith4647020%-1.2
Kyle Pitts2515017%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kaden Elliss501.000
Richie Grant310.000
Nate Landman310.000
Tre Flowers300.001
Zach Harrison120.000
Grady Jarrett120.000
Jessie Bates200.000
A.J. Terrell200.002
Arnold Ebiketie110.000
David Onyemata020.002

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
ATL -3
Closing total
40.5
GB moneyline
+124
ATL moneyline
-148

Falcons closed -3, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 49 — over by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
open
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
GB 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Arthur Smith