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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 17, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 2
It turned at Q4 0:42, 4th and 10, on Samori Toure — 16.0 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:42 · 4th and 10
Samori Toure
Falcons
(:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 83-S.Toure to GB 38 for 13 yards (33-T.Flowers). PENALTY on GB-83-S.Toure, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at GB 25 - No Play. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 83-S.Toure (33-T.Flowers). Penalty on GB-83-S.Toure, Illegal Shift, declined.
Atlanta Falcons 25–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:42, Falcons +16.0% win probability on one snap.
16.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Packers at 2 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.12 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.18 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Packers owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Falcons at 1 giveaway.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Falcons won this one — 6 of 15 on third down, against Packers at 3 of 9 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
(:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 83-S.Toure to GB 38 for 13 yards (33-T.Flowers). PENALTY on GB-83-S.Toure, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at GB 25 - No Play. The Replay Official reviewed the pass complet
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Younghoe Koo's 25-yard field goal with 1:01 left in the 4th put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Drake London3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Desmond Ridder · kick no good, wide left+610–9
Younghoe Koo25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCulloughLead never changed again+324–2510 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryFalcons
Falcons ahead 6–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Packers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 46 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Falcons’s 77 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Falcons 5.
Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 1 against 80.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Packers2.8 ptsright on their number · +2.4 vs their 0.4 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 46 snaps
Falcons-15.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their -9.9 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 77 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 84%
Tendencies room →Packers52.8%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 55.4%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 36 early downs
Falcons43.1%inside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their 49.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 58 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 60%
Tendencies room →Packers33.3%leaned — faked the run · +10.2 vs their 23.2%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+1.21× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Falcons26.3%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 27.7%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Packers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 41.7%.
Falcons80.0%leaned — went for it · +46.0 vs their 34.0%, and they swing ±27.4 week to week (+1.68× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 51%
Tendencies room →Packers13.2%inside their normal wobble · −9.2 vs their 22.3%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Falcons33.3%inside their normal wobble · +8.3 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (+0.84× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 38%
Tendencies room →Packers13.2%inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Falcons11.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
ATL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 80.0%, 46.0 points above their season mean of 34.0% and 1.7 times their own 27.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · ATL
19/32, 237 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
3.1 expected points added · -4.1% completion over expected
Passing · GB
14/25, 151 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
2.6 expected points added · -11.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jordan Love banked 9.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond RidderQB · Starter QB | 21.4 | −4.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/32, 237 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 10 car, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 21.2 | −0.4 | 72% | 71% | 17% | 2% | 19 car, 124 yd · 4/5, 48 yd |
| Jordan LoveQB · Starter QB | 20.3 | +9.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/25, 151 yd, 3 TD · 2 car, 23 yd |
| Jayden ReedWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.7 | +6.3 | 56% | 63% | 32% | 28% | 4/8, 37 yd, 2 TD |
| Drake LondonWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.7 | +6.0 | 82% | 71% | 27% | 28% | 6/8, 67 yd, 1 TD |
| Dontayvion WicksWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.0 | +4.0 | 50% | 56% | 16% | 27% | 2/4, 40 yd, 1 TD |
| Mack HollinsWR · Featured Receiver | 9.0 | −1.5 | 71% | 53% | 20% | 32% | 3/6, 60 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Featured Receiver | 8.7 | −3.0 | 67% | 71% | 20% | 16% | 4/6, 47 yd |
| A.J. DillonRB · Bell Cow Back | 7.3 | −1.2 | 68% | 59% | 4% | 2% | 15 car, 55 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | +0.7 | 76% | 74% | 12% | 24% | 2/3, 30 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB · Committee Back | 4.8 | −3.7 | 44% | 32% | 0% | — | 16 car, 48 yd |
| Luke MusgraveTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | −0.4 | 88% | 85% | 12% | 11% | 2/3, 25 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −7.3 | 70% | 79% | 17% | 17% | 2/5, 15 yd |
| Josiah DeguaraTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −0.2 | 38% | 30% | 8% | 0% | 2/2, 5 yd |
| Samori ToureWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −1.6 | 46% | 37% | 8% | 9% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Emanuel WilsonRB | 0.5 | −1.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Patrick TaylorRB | 0.1 | −2.1 | 22% | 33% | 4% | 0% | 1 car, 1 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Keith SmithRB | 0.0 | — | 21% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Malik HeathWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 20% | 19% | 4% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 83-S.Toure to GB 38 for 13 yards (33-T.Flowers). PENALTY on GB-83-S.Toure, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at GB 25 - No Play. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 83-S.Toure (33-T.Flowers). Penalty on GB-83-S.Toure, Illegal Shift, declined.
Q4 0:42 · Packers · 4th & 10 at GB 25 · gained nothing · -2.45 EP · −17.8% win probability
164 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 178 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 84 yards from the GB 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Packers0
Falcons3Packers6Falcons3Packers7Falcons3Packers10Falcons3Packers10Falcons9How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Packers16Falcons9Packers17Falcons9Packers17Falcons12Packers23Falcons12Packers24Falcons12How the play was built
A man in motion.
Packers24Falcons18Packers24Falcons19How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Packers24Falcons22How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Packers24Falcons25Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Falcons, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 14/25 | 151 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Dillon | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Jordan Love | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 | +3.1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2 | 4 | 40 | 1 | 16% | +2.0 |
| Jayden Reed | 4 | 8 | 37 | 2 | 32% | +2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quay Walker | 6 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| De'Vondre Campbell | 5 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Savage | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Clark |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 19/32 | 237 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_02_GB_ATL
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Falcons closed -3, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 49 — over by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
| Patrick Taylor | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Romeo Doubs | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 12% | +2.1 |
| Luke Musgrave | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 12% | +1.2 |
| A.J. Dillon | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| Samori Toure | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8% | −1.7 |
| Josiah Deguara | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8% | −0.3 |
| Patrick Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Malik Heath | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.3 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Rudy Ford | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaire Alexander | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tedarrell Slaton | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kingsley Enagbare | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston Smith | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| 19 |
| 124 |
| 6.5 |
| 0 |
| +5.7 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | 0 | −4.3 |
| Desmond Ridder | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 1 | +1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 6 | 8 | 67 | 1 | 27% | +3.5 |
| Mack Hollins | 3 | 6 | 60 | 0 | 20% | +1.6 |
| Bijan Robinson | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 17% | +2.1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 | 20% | −1.2 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 17% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden Elliss | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richie Grant | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Landman | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Flowers | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Harrison | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grady Jarrett | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Terrell | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Arnold Ebiketie | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Onyemata | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
