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2023 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 17, 2023 · NRG Stadium

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

31

Houston Texans

20

IND -1 ✓O 40 ✓

Indianapolis Colts 31–20. Biggest swing: Q1 3:19, HOU +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3HOU ↑IND ↓
Q1 · 3:19IND 14 — HOU 6HOU ball · 3rd & 6IND 82%

(3:19) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 3:19HOU +9% win prob(3:19) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 10:38HOU +9% win prob(10:38) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 86-W.Mallory pushed ob at HOU 18 for 43 yards (30-D.Houston-Carson).
  3. Q1 · 9:23IND +9% win prob(9:23) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 14 for -9 yards (52-S.Ebukam). Indianapolis challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 14 for -9 yards (52-S.Ebukam). FUMBLES (52-S.Ebukam) [52-S.Ebukam], RECOVERED by IND-51-K.Paye at HOU 15. Fumble Forced by IND-54-D.Odeyingbo.
  4. Q2 · 14:03HOU +8% win prob(14:03) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 2-R.Woods to HOU 28 for 7 yards (83-K.Granson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:49IND Touchdown

    (10:49) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — HOU 0
  2. Q1 · 9:18IND Touchdown

    (9:18) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 14 — HOU 0
  3. Q1 · 3:19HOU Touchdown

    (3:19) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 14 — HOU 7
  4. Q2 · 9:47IND Touchdown

    (9:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-Z.Moss right tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 21 — HOU 7
  5. Q2 · 4:28HOU Field goal

    (4:28) 15-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

    Score after this play: IND 21 — HOU 10
  6. Q2 · 0:15IND Touchdown

    (:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 83-K.Granson pushed ob at HOU 1 for 3 yards (30-D.Houston-Carson). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 83-K.Granson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 28 — HOU 10
  7. Q3 · 5:54IND Field goal

    (5:54) 7-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 31 — HOU 10
  8. Q4 · 13:28HOU Field goal

    (13:28) 15-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

    Score after this play: IND 31 — HOU 13
  9. Q4 · 9:54HOU Touchdown

    (9:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 3-N.Dell for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 31 — HOU 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsTexans
Offensive plays5676
Total yards353390 (edge)
Yards per play6.3 (edge)5.1
Expected points added / play0.26 (edge)-0.02
Success rate52% (edge)39%
Dropback rate63%68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.28 (edge)0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.22 (edge)-0.33
Third downs6/12 (edge)9/19
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)68 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1921 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)6
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Texans outgained Colts 390–353 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

30/47, 384 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.3 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Gardner MinshewQB

19/23, 171 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.9 expected points added · +13.9% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Zack MossRB

18 att, 88 yds, 1 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Dameon PierceRB

15 att, 31 yds, 0 TD

-6.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

7/9 for 146 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 14.4 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Robert WoodsWR

6/9 for 74 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 2512754:16Touchdown +7
2HOUHOU 184-31:26Fumble
3INDHOU 152150:05Touchdown +7
4HOUHOU 3215635:59Touchdown +7
5INDIND 25531:03Punt
6HOUHOU 344-61:33Punt
7INDIND 324111:46Punt
8HOUHOU 285121:07Punt
9INDIND 247813:02Touchdown +7
10HOUHOU 2510645:18Field goal +3
11INDIND 2516754:15Touchdown +7
12HOUHOU 25200:10End of half
13HOUHOU 2511285:52Defensive touchdown
14INDIND 209563:18Field goal +3
15HOUHOU 2514607:26Field goal +3
16INDIND 25581:55Punt
17HOUHOU 336671:41Touchdown +7
18INDIND 257223:48Punt
19HOUHOU 1212603:19Missed field goal
20INDIND 41471:34Punt
21HOUHOU 910451:07End of game

9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 81 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Gardner Minshew19/231711008.9
Anthony Richardson6/10560001.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Zack Moss18884.911.1
Anthony Richardson33511.723.5
Gardner Minshew231.50-0.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Michael Pittman81256039%0.1
Will Mallory224906%4.1
Josh Downs4537016%3.3
Alec Pierce222806%2.5
Zack Moss4419013%-1.5
Kylen Granson3416113%1.5
Mo Alie-Cox111503%1.6
Isaiah McKenzie11703%0.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Zaire Franklin850.000
Julian Blackmon630.000
E.J. Speed601.000
Kenny Moore510.000
Kwity Paye321.000
Grover Stewart230.000
Rodney Thomas400.000
Shaquille Leonard210.000
Darrell Baker300.001
DeForest Buckner201.000

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud30/473842067.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Dameon Pierce15312.10-6.7
Devin Singletary4143.50-0.3
Dare Ogunbowale242.001.0
Andrew Beck221.00-0.2
C.J. Stroud310.30-2.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Nico Collins79146121%14.4
Robert Woods6974021%6.2
Tank Dell71072123%0.9
Dalton Schultz4734016%-1.2
Brevin Jordan222705%1.9
John Metchie111702%0.9
Devin Singletary111002%0.2
Dameon Pierce23407%-1.4
Xavier Hutchinson01002%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
M.J. Stewart640.000
Derek Stingley510.000
Henry To'oTo'o330.000
Denzel Perryman420.000
Tavierre Thomas310.000
Jonathan Greenard120.000
Will Anderson210.000
Steven Nelson200.001
Sheldon Rankins200.000
DeAndre Houston-Carson110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
IND -1
Closing total
40
IND moneyline
-110
HOU moneyline
-110

Colts closed -1 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 40; the game landed 51 — over by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
open
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
IND 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs DeMeco Ryans

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.