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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:25 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Indianapolis Colts 31 at Houston Texans 20. Final.
Colts -1 ✓O 40 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 2
Indianapolis Colts 31, Texans 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 3:19, 3rd and 6, on Nico Collins — 9.3 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Colts closed -1 and covered, winning by 11.
Indianapolis Colts 31–20. Biggest swing: Q1 3:19, Texans +9.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:19 · 3rd and 6
Nico Collins
Texans
(3:19) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
C.J. StroudColtsQ1 9:23(9:23) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 14 for -9 yards (52-S.Ebukam). Indianapolis challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 14 for -9 yards (52-S.Ebukam). FUMBLES (52-S.Ebukam) [52-S.Ebukam], RECOVERED by IND-51-K.Paye at HOU 15. Fumble Forced by IND-54-D.Odeyingbo.
8.6pts
Will MalloryColtsQ2 10:38(10:38) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 86-W.Mallory pushed ob at HOU 18 for 43 yards (30-D.Houston-Carson).
8.7pts
What separated them
Red zone
Colts won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Texans at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Colts won this one — +0.22 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.33 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Colts won this one — no giveaways, against Texans at 2 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Colts won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Colts177 of 188 plays carry both curves
(3:19) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +9.3 for TexansExpected points +2.61 for TexansThe model had Texans 6 points higher than the market did.play 34
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 3:19HOU +9% win prob(3:19) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:38HOU +9% win prob(10:38) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 86-W.Mallory pushed ob at HOU 18 for 43 yards (30-D.Houston-Carson).
1st · 9:23IND +9% win prob(9:23) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 14 for -9 yards (52-S.Ebukam). Indianapolis challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 14 for -9 yards (52-S.Ebukam). FUMBLES (52-S.Ebukam) [52-S.Ebukam], RECOVERED by IND-51-K.Paye at HOU 15. Fumble Forced by IND-54-D.Odeyingbo.
2nd · 14:03HOU +8% win prob(14:03) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 2-R.Woods to HOU 28 for 7 yards (83-K.Granson).
1st · 1:26IND +6% win prob(1:26) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 28 for -9 yards (45-E.Speed).
1st · 13:58HOU +6% win prob(13:58) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short middle to 83-K.Granson to HOU 45 for 11 yards (23-E.Murray).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Anthony Richardson's 18-yard rushing touchdown with 10:49 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:49Anthony Richardson·18-yd TD run18-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
Colts ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.26Colts: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.02Texans: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.28Colts: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.13Texans: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.22Colts: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.33Texans: −0.33 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 56 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Texans’s 76 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Colts 4, Texans 5.
NoteTexans outgained Colts 390-353 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
HOU's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.8% in week 1 against 2.9% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
IND's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 83.3% in week 1 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 30.8 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +1.2 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Texans2.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −14.5 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.74× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteHOU's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.9%, 14.5 points below their season mean of 17.3% and 1.7 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive
79Bernhard RaimannT · Every snap100%57 snaps
75Will FriesG · Every snap100%57 snaps
72Braden SmithT · Every snap100%57 snaps
14Alec PierceWR · Every snap100%57 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Every snap100%57 snaps
21Zack MossRB · Full-time98%56 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Full-time98%56 snaps
1Josh DownsWR · Heavy rotation75%43 snaps
10Gardner MinshewQB · Heavy rotation68%39 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Heavy rotation67%38 snaps
83Kylen GransonTE · Heavy rotation65%37 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational40%23 snaps
62Wesley FrenchC · Rotational33%19 snaps
5Anthony RichardsonQB · Rotational32%18 snaps
86Will MalloryTE · Situational19%11 snaps
6Isaiah McKenzieWR · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Julius BrentsCBAdetomiwa AdebaworeDEArlington HambrightGIsaiah LandOLBSam EhlingerQBRyan HayesTAndrew OgletreeTE
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
74Josh JonesG · Every snap100%84 snaps
50Kendrick GreenC · Every snap100%84 snaps
77George FantT · Every snap100%84 snaps
69Shaquille MasonG · Every snap100%84 snaps
68Jarrett PattersonG · Every snap100%84 snaps
7C.J. StroudQB · Every snap100%84 snaps
2Robert WoodsWR · Full-time86%72 snaps
3Nathaniel DellWR · Heavy rotation79%66 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Heavy rotation71%60 snaps
12Nico CollinsWR · Heavy rotation62%52 snaps
31Dameon PierceRB · Rotational45%38 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Rotational36%30 snaps
84Teagan QuitorianoTE · Rotational26%22 snaps
19Xavier HutchinsonWR · Situational21%18 snaps
47Andrew BeckFB · Situational20%17 snaps
33Dare OgunbowaleRB · Situational19%16 snaps
9Brevin JordanTE · Situational18%15 snaps
8John MetchieWR · Situational17%14 snaps
Inactive · 7
Alex AustinCBJalen PitreFSJimmie WardFSNeville HewittILBCase KeenumQBMike BooneRBLaremy TunsilT
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Stroud sacked−11% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:23) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 14 for -9 yards (52-S.Ebukam). Indianapolis challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 14 for -9 yards (52-S.Ebukam). FUMBLES (52-S.Ebukam) [52-S.Ebukam], RECOVERED by IND-51-K.Paye at HOU 15. Fumble Forced by IND-54-D.Odeyingbo.
Q1 9:23 · Texans · 3rd & 5 at HOU 23 · lost 8 · -5.06 EP · −11.1% win probability
175 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 183. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 76 yards from the IND 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
40%
Yards
742
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56+0.1180%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.3256%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1064%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.2440%
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Colts0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter47 plays
Colts6Texans0
Colts7Texans0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Texans 18
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Texans 18 to the Texans 23
Colts13Texans0
Colts14Texans0
Touchdown2 plays
Colts14Texans6
Colts14Texans7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Texans 32 to the Colts 8
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 28
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 34 to the Texans 37
The period ended3 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Colts 37
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Texans 40
Colts20Texans7
Colts21Texans7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Texans 11
Colts21Texans10
Field goal12 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Colts 11
Colts27Texans10
Colts28Texans10
Touchdown18 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Texans 4
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Colts 44
Colts31Texans10
Field goal10 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Texans 24
The period ended14 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Colts 2
4th quarter55 plays
Colts31Texans13
Field goal4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 33
Colts31Texans19
Colts31Texans20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 33 to the Colts 23
The period ended8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 47
No good14 plays, from the Texans 12 to the Colts 17
The period ended6 plays, from the Colts 41 to the Colts 48
The period ended12 plays, from the Texans 9 to the Colts 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Coltscategory by categoryTexans
Colts6
Texans0
