2023 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 17, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Jacksonville Jaguars

KC -3.5 ✓U 50.5 ✓Chiefs closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Kansas City Chiefs 17–9. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, JAX +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 15:00KC 0 — JAX 0JAX ball · 4th & 1KC 65%

(15:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to KC 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-R.James MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-15-T.Jones at KC 17.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 15:00JAX +12% win prob(15:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to KC 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-R.James MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-15-T.Jones at KC 17.
Q3 · 13:35JAX +11% win prob(13:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 84-Ju.Watson to JAX 16 for 34 yards (37-T.Herndon).
Q2 · 0:30JAX +10% win prob(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 24-S.Moore for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-32-Ty.Campbell, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
Q2 · 10:57KC +9% win prob(10:57) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 39-J.Agnew. Kansas City challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 43, touched at KC 42, RECOVERED by KC-38-L.Sneed at KC 43. 38-L.Sneed to KC 43 for no gain (39-J.Agnew).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 13:03JAX Field goal
(13:03) 10-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: KC 0 — JAX 3
Q2 · 0:30KC Touchdown
(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 24-S.Moore for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-32-Ty.Campbell, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 7 — JAX 3
Q2 · 0:03JAX Field goal
(:03) 10-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: KC 7 — JAX 6
Q3 · 11:36KC Touchdown
(11:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 14 — JAX 6
Q4 · 13:48JAX Field goal
(13:48) 10-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: KC 14 — JAX 9
Q4 · 8:15KC Field goal
(8:15) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 17 — JAX 9

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Jaguars
Offensive plays	61	64
Total yards	405 (edge)	271
Yards per play	6.6 (edge)	4.2
Expected points added / play	0.14 (edge)	-0.34
Success rate	39% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	74%	77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.17 (edge)	-0.28
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.53
Third downs	5/12 (edge)	3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

29/41, 305 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

10.6 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

22/41, 216 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-12.6 expected points added · -12.7% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

12 att, 70 yds, 0 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

12 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Christian KirkWR

11/14 for 110 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · 1.2 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Skyy MooreWR

3/4 for 70 yds, 1 TD

10% of team targets · 5.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	9	29	4:08	Punt
2	KC	KC 10	4	9	1:40	Punt
3	JAX	JAX 31	4	0	0:26	Punt
4	KC	KC 14	10	59	4:30	Punt
5	JAX	JAX 2	8	21	4:25	Punt
6	JAX	KC 17	4	8	1:52	Field goal +3
7	KC	KC 25	6	27	2:02	Fumble
8	JAX	KC 37	1	0	0:03	Fumble
9	KC	KC 43	2	1	1:13	Interception
10	JAX	JAX 12	11	33	5:37	Turnover on downs
11	KC	50	8	55	3:37	Touchdown +7
12	JAX	JAX 25	6	44	0:27	Field goal +3
13	KC	KC 19	9	81	3:30	Touchdown +7
14	JAX	JAX 25	7	13	3:05	Punt
15	KC	KC 9	7	31	3:40	Punt
16	JAX	JAX 35	4	1	1:00	Punt
17	KC	KC 23	4	-6	1:46	Punt
18	JAX	JAX 23	9	63	3:16	Field goal +3
19	KC	KC 25	14	65	5:33	Field goal +3
20	JAX	JAX 25	13	59	3:52	Turnover on downs
21	KC	KC 16	10	83	4:18	End of game

6 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 83 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a end of game.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	29/41	305	2	1	1	10.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Isiah Pacheco	12	70	5.8	3.4
Patrick Mahomes	7	30	4.3	-3.0
Kadarius Toney	1	3	3.0	-0.2
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	1	0	0.0	-0.5
Jerick McKinnon	1	-2	-2.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Skyy Moore	3	4	70	1	10%	5.8
Justin Watson	3	5	62	0	13%	-1.6
Noah Gray	3	3	38	0	8%	1.8
Kadarius Toney	5	5	35	0	13%	2.1
Travis Kelce	4	9	26	1	23%	-0.3
Jerick McKinnon	3	3	24	0	8%	-1.1
Rashee Rice	2	2	20	0	5%	1.2
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	2	2	17	0	5%	2.6
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	2	3	13	0	8%	-0.5
Isiah Pacheco	1	2	0	0	5%	-1.5
Donovan Smith	1	1	0	0	3%	-1.6
Richie James	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nick Bolton	5	3	0.0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	5	1	0.0	2
Justin Reid	4	1	0.0	0
Drue Tranquill	4	1	0.0	0
George Karlaftis	1	3	1.5	0
Leo Chenal	3	1	0.0	0
Trent McDuffie	0	3	0.0	1
Mike Edwards	2	1	0.0	0
Derrick Nnadi	0	3	0.0	1
Bryan Cook	1	1	0.0	1

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	22/41	216	0	0	4	-12.6
Christian Kirk	1/1	-1	0	0	0	-1.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Travis Etienne	12	40	3.3	-1.8
Trevor Lawrence	5	26	5.2	-6.3
D'Ernest Johnson	1	8	8.0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Christian Kirk	11	14	110	34%	1.2
Evan Engram	6	8	57	20%	3.0
Calvin Ridley	2	8	32	20%	-4.8
D'Ernest Johnson	1	1	9	2%	0.9
Jamal Agnew	1	1	5	2%	1.2
Travis Etienne	2	3	2	7%	-2.2
Zay Jones	0	6	0	15%	-5.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	5	4	0.0	0	0
Devin Lloyd	3	6	0.0	0	2
Rayshawn Jenkins	6	2	0.0	0	2
Tre Herndon	4	3	0.0	0	1
Tyson Campbell	1	5	0.0	0	0
Darious Williams	3	1	0.0	0	1
K'Lavon Chaisson	1	1	1.0	0	0
Andre Cisco	1	1	0.0	1	2
Angelo Blackson	1	1	0.0	0	0
Adam Gotsis	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -3.5
Closing total: 50.5
KC moneyline: -170
JAX moneyline: +142

Chiefs closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 26 — under by 24.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: KC 10 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Doug Pederson