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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Kansas City Chiefs 17 at Jacksonville Jaguars 9. Final.
Chiefs -3.5 ✓U 50.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 2
Kansas City Chiefs 17, Jaguars 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 15:00, 4th and 1 — 12.0 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 15:00 · 4th and 1
Unnamed on the sheet
Jaguars
(15:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to KC 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-R.James MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-15-T.Jones at KC 17.
Chiefs closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Kansas City Chiefs 17–9. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, Jaguars +12.0% win probability on one snap.
12.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Skyy MooreChiefsQ2 0:30(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 24-S.Moore for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-32-Ty.Campbell, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
9.9pts
Justin WatsonChiefsQ3 13:35(13:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 84-Ju.Watson to JAX 16 for 34 yards (37-T.Herndon).
11.0pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.53 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Jaguars at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 3 chunk plays.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Chiefs164 of 173 plays carry both curves
(15:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to KC 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-R.James MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-15-T.Jones at KC 17.
Swing +12.0 for JaguarsExpected points +5.04 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 16 points higher than the market did.play 40
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 15:00JAX +12% win prob(15:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to KC 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-R.James MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-15-T.Jones at KC 17.
3rd · 13:35JAX +11% win prob(13:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 84-Ju.Watson to JAX 16 for 34 yards (37-T.Herndon).
2nd · 0:30JAX +10% win prob(:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 24-S.Moore for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-32-Ty.Campbell, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
2nd · 10:57KC +9% win prob(10:57) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 39-J.Agnew. Kansas City challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 43, touched at KC 42, RECOVERED by KC-38-L.Sneed at KC 43. 38-L.Sneed to KC 43 for no gain (39-J.Agnew).
2nd · 2:00JAX +9% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire to JAX 32 for 10 yards (33-D.Lloyd; 32-Ty.Campbell).
4th · 14:53JAX +8% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Skyy Moore's 9-yard touchdown catch with 0:30 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd13:03Brandon McManus·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+30–3
2nd0:30Skyy Moore·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+77–3
2nd0:03Brandon McManus·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+37–6
3rd11:36Travis Kelce·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+714–6
4th13:48Brandon McManus·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+314–9
4th8:15Harrison Butker·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+317–9
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryJaguars
Chiefs8–1Jaguars
405Total yards271
6.6Yards per play4.2
39%Success rate38%
42%Third-down rate25%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
7Explosive plays3
20First downs15
1Sacks taken4
2Turnovers1
The read
Chiefs ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Chiefs: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.34Jaguars: −0.34 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.17Chiefs: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.28Jaguars: −0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Chiefs: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.53Jaguars: −0.53 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 61 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 64 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Jaguars 3.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
KC's pass rate over expected, +17.1 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 5.7 points clear of the next team along.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
JAX's pass rate over expected turned over: −3.1 pts in week 1 against +11.2 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
KC's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 1 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12 pts to 23 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.5 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Jaguars8.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.0 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteJAX's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 34.7%, 15.3 points above their season mean of 19.4% and 2.0 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Cooke punts+15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(15:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to KC 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 17-R.James MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-15-T.Jones at KC 17.
Q2 15:00 · Jaguars · 4th & 1 at JAX 34 · gained nothing · +5.04 EP · +14.7% win probability
162 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 81 yards from the KC 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
39%
Yards
670
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.3678%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.2584%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.5345%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.5856%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.300%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Chiefs 42
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Chiefs 19
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 31 to the Jaguars 36
Punt11 plays, from the Chiefs 14 to the Jaguars 37
The period ended9 plays, from the Jaguars 2 to the Jaguars 33
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt1 play
Chiefs0Jaguars3
Field goal5 plays, from the Chiefs 17 to the Chiefs 14
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 41
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Intercepted3 plays, from the Chiefs 43 to the Chiefs 44
The period ended13 plays, from the Jaguars 12 to the Chiefs 45
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Chiefs6Jaguars3
Chiefs7Jaguars3
Touchdown9 plays, from midfield to the Jaguars 9
Chiefs7Jaguars6
Field goal8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Chiefs 31
3rd quarter38 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Chiefs13Jaguars6
Chiefs14Jaguars6
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 19 to the Jaguars 9
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 38
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 9 to the Chiefs 23
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 35 to the Jaguars 36
Punt4 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Chiefs 16
4th quarter49 plays
Chiefs14Jaguars9
Field goal6 plays, from the Chiefs 11 to the Chiefs 1
Chiefs17Jaguars9
Field goal16 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Jaguars 10
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Chiefs 14
The period ended14 plays, from the Chiefs 16 to the Jaguars 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -3.5
Closing total
50.5
Chiefs moneyline
-170
Jaguars moneyline
+142
Chiefs closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 26 — under by 24.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors
Kickoff weather
Warm, 85°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the south; 0.63 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Chiefs 10 days · Jaguars 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Doug Pederson
(14:53) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 17-E.Engram [95-C.Jones]. PENALTY on KC-20-J.Reid, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at KC 11 - No Play.
2nd · 4:10KC +8% win prob(4:10) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at 50 for -5 yards (95-C.Jones).
3rd · 11:36JAX +8% win prob(11:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
