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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:44 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Chargers168 of 179 plays carry both curves
(2:25) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +19.9 for TitansExpected points +2.58 for TitansThe model had Titans 13 points higher than the market did.play 147
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:25TEN +20% win prob(2:25) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:21LAC +19% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at TEN 15 for -8 yards (58-H.Landry).
4th · 6:00TEN +16% win prob(6:00) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 11-C.Moore to LAC 33 for 49 yards (43-M.Davis).
4th · 3:55TEN +15% win prob(3:55) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins to LAC 13 for 14 yards (3-D.James). PENALTY on LAC-9-K.Murray, Roughing the Passer, 7 yards, enforced at LAC 13.
Overtime · 5:06TEN +13% win prob(5:06) 6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Overtime · 9:43TEN +12% win prob(9:43) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to TEN 28, Center-47-J.Harris. 5-K.Jackson to TEN 39 for 11 yards (47-J.Harris).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Folk's 41-yard field goal with 5:06 left in overtime put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st3:49Cameron Dicker·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+33–0
4th2:25Nick Westbrook-Ikhine·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+721–24
4th0:03Cameron Dicker·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+324–24
Overtime5:06Nick Folk·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.CoxLead never changed again+324–27
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryTitans
Chargers2–5Titans
344Total yards341
5.2Yards per play5.4
42%Success rate43%
14%Third-down rate46%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays7
19First downs19
3Sacks taken5
0Turnovers0
The read
Titans ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Chargers: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.01Titans: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Chargers: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.05Titans: +0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Chargers: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.02Titans: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 66 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Titans’s 63 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 5, Titans 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's pass rate over expected turned over: +3.6 pts in week 1 against −13.9 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
TEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 59.6% in week 1 against 38.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
LAC's sack or hit rate turned over: 4.3% in week 1 against 20.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points.
LAC's early-down pass rate turned over: 46.7% in week 1 against 66.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
leaned — got home · +7.2 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+1.04× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Titans11.1%
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteTEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -13.9 pts, 8.6 points below their season mean of -5.2 pts and 1.7 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
77Zion JohnsonG · Every snap100%68 snaps
79Trey PipkinsT · Every snap100%68 snaps
68Jamaree SalyerG · Every snap100%68 snaps
70Rashawn SlaterT · Every snap100%68 snaps
63Corey LinsleyC · Every snap100%68 snaps
10Justin HerbertQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
13Keenan AllenWR · Full-time94%64 snaps
81Mike WilliamsWR · Full-time90%61 snaps
25Joshua KelleyRB · Heavy rotation79%54 snaps
5Josh PalmerWR · Heavy rotation54%37 snaps
89Donald ParhamTE · Heavy rotation50%34 snaps
7Gerald EverettTE · Rotational41%28 snaps
84Stone SmarttTE · Rotational32%22 snaps
12Derius DavisWR · Situational16%11 snaps
1Quentin JohnstonWR · Situational15%10 snaps
42Elijah DotsonRB · Situational13%9 snaps
88Tre' McKittyTE · Situational7%5 snaps
28Isaiah SpillerRB · Situational6%4 snaps
76Will ClappC · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Chris RumphDEChristopher HintonDTA.J. FinleyFSBrenden JaimesGEric KendricksILBDaiyan HenleyILBAustin EkelerRB
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Jordan McFaddenGEaston StickQB
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
66Christopher HubbardT · Every snap100%65 snaps
60Daniel BrunskillC · Every snap100%65 snaps
71Andre DillardT · Every snap100%65 snaps
55Aaron BrewerG · Every snap100%65 snaps
17Ryan TannehillQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
75Dillon RadunzT · Full-time82%53 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation71%46 snaps
85Chigoziem OkonkwoTE · Heavy rotation69%45 snaps
15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Heavy rotation68%44 snaps
16Treylon BurksWR · Heavy rotation65%42 snaps
88Trevon WescoTE · Heavy rotation62%40 snaps
10DeAndre HopkinsWR · Heavy rotation60%39 snaps
11Chris MooreWR · Rotational46%30 snaps
32Tyjae SpearsRB · Rotational37%24 snaps
81Josh WhyleTE · Situational22%14 snaps
67Xavier Newman-JohnsonG · Situational18%12 snaps
36Julius ChestnutRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Kristian FultonCBAmani HookerFSCaleb MurphyOLBTrevis GipsonOLBWill LevisQBPeter SkoronskiTColton DowellWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
R.Tannehill pass+19% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(3:55) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins to LAC 13 for 14 yards (3-D.James). PENALTY on LAC-9-K.Murray, Roughing the Passer, 7 yards, enforced at LAC 13.
Q4 3:55 · Titans · 3rd & 4 at LAC 27 · gained 14 · +2.28 EP · +18.5% win probability
167 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 82 yards from the TEN 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
42%
Yards
685
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.0276%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.2659%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25+0.2636%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.2750%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.2420%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.5840%
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Chargers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 32
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Chargers 46
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Chargers3Titans0
Field goal11 plays, from the Titans 48 to the Titans 7
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 30
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 36 to the Chargers 47
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt3 plays, from midfield to the Titans 44
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Titans 16
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.3 seconds
Chargers9Titans0
Chargers11Titans0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Titans 47 to the Titans 8
Chargers11Titans6
Chargers11Titans7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Chargers 1
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Chargers14Titans7
Field goal8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Titans 12
Chargers14Titans10
Field goal13 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Chargers 15
3rd quarter36 plays
Chargers14Titans16
Chargers14Titans17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Chargers 12
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Titans 49
Punt9 plays, from the Titans 13 to midfield
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Drive ended6 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Titans 45
4th quarter1 plays
3rd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
4th quarter47 plays
Chargers20Titans17
Chargers21Titans17
Touchdown2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 31
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 34 to the Chargers 42
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 14 to the Titans 20
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Titans 47
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Chargers21Titans23
Chargers21Titans24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Titans 18 to the Chargers 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Chargers24Titans24
Field goal15 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Titans 7
Overtime15 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket, thrown away.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.4 seconds
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Chargers24Titans27
Field goal9 plays, from the Titans 39 to the Chargers 23
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
