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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:05 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 17, 2023 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 2
It turned at Q4 2:25, 3rd and 4, on Nick Westbrook-Ikhine — 19.9 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tennessee Titans 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:25, Titans +19.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:25 · 3rd and 4
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Titans
(2:25) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Titans won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Chargers at 2 of 14 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Chargers at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Titans won this one — -0.02 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — +0.23 expected points per dropback, against Titans at +0.05 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(2:25) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Nick Folk's 41-yard field goal with 5:06 left in overtime put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Nick Folk41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.CoxLead never changed again+324–2710 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chargerscategory by categoryTitans
Titans ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 66 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Titans’s 63 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 5, Titans 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's pass rate over expected turned over: +3.6 pts in week 1 against −13.9 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
TEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 59.6% in week 1 against 38.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
LAC's sack or hit rate turned over: 4.3% in week 1 against 20.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
LAC's early-down pass rate turned over: 46.7% in week 1 against 66.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points. · +0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Chargers3.7 ptsright on their number · +2.9 vs their 0.7 pts, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 65 snaps
Titans-13.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.6 vs their -5.2 pts, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−1.73× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 32% to 84%
Tendencies room →Chargers66.7%inside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their 60.3%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 48 early downs
Titans38.8%leaned — ran early · −12.7 vs their 51.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.73× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 52%
Tendencies room →Chargers22.2%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 20.3%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Titans34.5%inside their normal wobble · +8.0 vs their 26.4%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32% to 107%
Fourth Down room →Chargers60.0%inside their normal wobble · +21.8 vs their 38.2%, and they swing ±25.0 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Titans—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.6%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 56%
Tendencies room →Chargers37.9%inside their normal wobble · +8.1 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Titans20.0%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 31%
Tendencies room →Chargers20.7%leaned — got home · +7.2 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+1.04× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Titans11.1%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
TEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -13.9 pts, 8.6 points below their season mean of -5.2 pts and 1.7 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
27/41, 305 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
10.3 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
20/24, 246 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
1.5 expected points added · +16.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Keenan Allen banked 11.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan AllenWR · Alpha Receiver | 31.1 | +11.0 | 94% | 96% | 26% | 26% | 8/10, 111 yd, 2 TD |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 22.2 | −3.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/41, 305 yd, 2 TD · 1 car, 0 yd |
| Ryan TannehillQB · Starter QB | 21.0 | +9.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/24, 246 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 12 yd, 1 TD |
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.5 | −5.1 | 71% | 62% | 17% | 0% | 25 car, 80 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 15 yd |
| Mike WilliamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.6 | −7.8 | 90% | 87% | 33% | 39% | 1 car, 3 yd · 8/13, 83 yd |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.5 | +4.6 | 68% | 76% | 13% | 11% | 3/3, 25 yd, 1 TD |
| Treylon BurksWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | +1.8 | 65% | 62% | 17% | 40% | 3/4, 76 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Featured Receiver | 8.0 | +0.7 | 60% | 72% | 21% | 21% | 4/5, 40 yd |
| Gerald EverettTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +3.0 | 41% | 40% | 8% | 5% | 3/3, 47 yd |
| Tyjae SpearsRB | 7.5 | +0.7 | 37% | 45% | 8% | 2% | 8 car, 49 yd · 2/2, 6 yd |
| Chigoziem OkonkwoTE | 7.5 | +1.4 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Chris MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | +3.2 | 46% | 45% | 4% | 23% | 1/1, 49 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | −5.6 | 54% | 62% | 13% | 11% | 3/5, 13 yd |
| Joshua KelleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 3.9 | −4.3 | 79% | 82% | 3% | 1% | 13 car, 39 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Elijah DotsonRB | 3.9 | −1.1 | 13% | 9% | 5% | 0% | 4 car, 6 yd · 2/2, 13 yd |
| Stone SmarttTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +2.2 | 32% | 27% | 3% | 5% | 1/1, 24 yd |
| Donald ParhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −2.3 | 50% | 51% | 5% | 8% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Quentin JohnstonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −2.8 | 15% | 20% | 5% | 5% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Derius DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | +0.1 | 16% | 11% | 0% | — | 1 car, 10 yd |
| Isaiah SpillerRB | 0.3 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Julius ChestnutRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Trevon WescoTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 62% | 45% | 4% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Josh WhyleTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 22% | 14% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kearis JacksonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:55) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins to LAC 13 for 14 yards (3-D.James). PENALTY on LAC-9-K.Murray, Roughing the Passer, 7 yards, enforced at LAC 13.
Q4 3:55 · Titans · 3rd & 4 at LAC 27 · gained 14 · +2.28 EP · +18.5% win probability
167 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 179 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 82 yards from the TEN 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chargers3
Titans0How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
Chargers9Titans0Chargers11Titans0Chargers11Titans6Chargers11Titans7How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Chargers14Titans7Chargers14Titans10Chargers14Titans16Chargers14Titans17How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chargers20Titans17Chargers21Titans17How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chargers21Titans23Chargers21Titans24How the play was built
A man in motion.
Chargers24Titans24How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket, thrown away.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Chargers24Titans27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chargers at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 27/41 | 305 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +10.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Kelley | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | +3.5 |
| Elijah Dotson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 8 | 10 | 111 | 2 | 26% | +11.2 |
| Mike Williams | 8 | 13 | 83 | 0 | 33% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Murray | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Niemann | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derwin James |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 20/24 | 246 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +1.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_02_LAC_TEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 51 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 6 |
| 1.5 |
| 0 |
| −3.2 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Justin Herbert | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| +3.6 |
| Gerald Everett | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 8% | +3.6 |
| Stone Smartt | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 3% | +2.1 |
| Elijah Dotson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 5% | +0.4 |
| Josh Palmer | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 13% | −3.3 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Donald Parham | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5% | +0.1 |
| Joshua Kelley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| 5 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Tuli Tuipulotu | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Mack | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alohi Gilman | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asante Samuel | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Bosa | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Johnson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.C. Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 25 | 80 | 3.2 | 1 | −4.0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 8 | 49 | 6.1 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 1 | +1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treylon Burks | 3 | 4 | 76 | 0 | 17% | +3.2 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 49 | 0 | 4% | +3.3 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 21% | +3.6 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 17% | +1.1 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 3 | 3 | 25 | 1 | 13% | +3.7 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 17% | −0.2 |
| Tyjae Spears | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8% | −0.6 |
| Trevon Wesco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Byard | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Avery | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Molden | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roger McCreary | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jack Gibbens | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denico Autry | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
