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2023 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 17, 2023 · New Era Field

Las Vegas Raiders

10

Buffalo BillsWinner

38

BUF -7.5 ✓O 47 ✓

Buffalo Bills 38–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:22, LV +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BUFLV
Q1 · 8:22LV 7BUF 0LV ball · 2nd & 8BUF 58%

(8:22) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle intended for 22-A.Abdullah INTERCEPTED by 43-T.Bernard (50-G.Rousseau) [92-D.Jones] at LV 28. 43-T.Bernard to LV 28 for no gain (22-A.Abdullah).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 8:22LV +11% win prob(8:22) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle intended for 22-A.Abdullah INTERCEPTED by 43-T.Bernard (50-G.Rousseau) [92-D.Jones] at LV 28. 43-T.Bernard to LV 28 for no gain (22-A.Abdullah).
  2. Q1 · 12:22BUF +9% win prob(12:22) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 13:03BUF +8% win prob(13:03) 11-T.Tucker left end to BUF 16 for 34 yards (27-T.White; 23-M.Hyde).
  4. Q2 · 3:01LV +7% win prob(3:01) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Knox (39-N.Hobbs).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:22LV Touchdown

    (12:22) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 7BUF 0
  2. Q1 · 4:23BUF Touchdown

    (4:23) 28-L.Murray up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 7BUF 7
  3. Q2 · 12:16BUF Touchdown

    (12:16) 76-D.Edwards reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 7BUF 14
  4. Q2 · 6:53LV Field goal

    (6:53) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LV 10BUF 14
  5. Q2 · 0:24BUF Touchdown

    (:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 10BUF 21
  6. Q3 · 6:06BUF Touchdown

    (6:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 10BUF 28
  7. Q4 · 15:00BUF Field goal

    (15:00) 2-T.Bass 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: LV 10BUF 31
  8. Q4 · 5:11BUF Touchdown

    (5:11) (Shotgun) 22-D.Harris up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 10BUF 38

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRaidersBills
Offensive plays3972
Total yards240452 (edge)
Yards per play6.26.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.260.31 (edge)
Success rate44%60% (edge)
Dropback rate64%54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.100.34 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.550.27 (edge)
Third downs3/77/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)36 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1227 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)2
Turnovers30 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs -0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

31/37, 274 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

13.2 expected points added · +15.1% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

16/24, 185 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-2.0 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

17 att, 123 yds, 0 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Damien HarrisRB

7 att, 33 yds, 1 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Gabe DavisWR

6/7 for 92 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 11.5 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Davante AdamsWR

6/8 for 84 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LVLV 257752:44Touchdown +7
2BUFBUF 25551:54Punt
3LVLV 164142:05Interception
4BUFLV 288283:58Touchdown +7
5LVLV 31551:03Punt
6BUFBUF 1612596:06Touchdown +7
7LVLV 2511465:22Field goal +3
8BUFBUF 478523:52Turnover on downs
9LVLV 2471:09Punt
10BUFBUF 439571:29Touchdown +7
11LVLV 253130:18End of half
12BUFBUF 2517759:01Touchdown +7
13LVLV 255232:10Interception
14BUFLV 489423:53Field goal +3
15LVLV 256122:16Punt
16BUFBUF 512957:32Touchdown +7
17LVLV 256452:49Fumble
18BUFBUF 194392:19End of game

8 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 95 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jimmy Garoppolo16/24185120-2.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tre Tucker13434.002.2
Zamir White4225.50-3.6
Jimmy Garoppolo111.00-0.4
Josh Jacobs9-2-0.20-6.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Davante Adams6884135%6.5
Josh Jacobs5651026%-2.4
Hunter Renfrow112304%0.7
Austin Hooper222009%1.9
Ameer Abdullah135013%-6.2
Michael Mayer11204%-0.1
Tre Tucker01004%-0.5
DeAndre Carter01004%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Robert Spillane861.000
Divine Deablo541.000
Jakorian Bennett540.000
Nate Hobbs430.001
Maxx Crosby410.000
Marcus Epps410.000
Trevon Moehrig310.001
Marcus Peters210.000
Bilal Nichols210.000
Roderic Teamer200.000

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen31/3727430213.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Cook171237.202.0
Damien Harris7334.713.5
Latavius Murray6223.71-0.4
Josh Allen372.303.7
Kyle Allen2-2-1.00-2.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Gabe Davis6792119%11.5
Stefon Diggs7766019%4.2
Dalton Kincaid5643017%1.6
James Cook4436011%1.1
Khalil Shakir111113%2.8
Dawson Knox3510114%-2.5
Latavius Murray22906%-0.4
Deonte Harty23408%-1.1
Reggie Gilliam11303%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Terrel Bernard130.011
Gregory Rousseau210.001
Jordan Poyer210.000
Matt Milano210.011
Tre'Davious White210.000
Taron Johnson120.000
Dane Jackson200.000
Dorian Williams200.000
Ed Oliver110.000
Christian Benford010.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BUF -7.5
Closing total
47
LV moneyline
+280
BUF moneyline
-355

Bills closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 28.

Total closed 47; the game landed 48 — over by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors
Kickoff weather
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
LV 7 days · BUF 6 days
Coaches
Josh McDaniels vs Sean McDermott