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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:38 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 17, 2023 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 2
It turned at Q1 8:22, 2nd and 8, on Terrel Bernard — 11.0 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:22 · 2nd and 8
Terrel Bernard
Bills
(8:22) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle intended for 22-A.Abdullah INTERCEPTED by 43-T.Bernard (50-G.Rousseau) [92-D.Jones] at LV 28. 43-T.Bernard to LV 28 for no gain (22-A.Abdullah).
Buffalo Bills 38–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:22, Bills +11.0% win probability on one snap.
11.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.27 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.55 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.31 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.26 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Raiders at 3 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 60% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(8:22) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle intended for 22-A.Abdullah INTERCEPTED by 43-T.Bernard (50-G.Rousseau) [92-D.Jones] at LV 28. 43-T.Bernard to LV 28 for no gain (22-A.Abdullah).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Dawson Knox's 2-yard touchdown catch with 12:16 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Raiderscategory by categoryBills
Bills ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Raiders, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 39 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Bills’s 72 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 2, Bills 7.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's sack or hit rate turned over: 26.9% in week 1 against 8.0% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Raiders-1.9 ptsright on their number · +0.3 vs their -2.2 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 39 snaps
Bills1.2 ptsright on their number · +0.9 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 72 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 19% to 93%
Tendencies room →Raiders56.3%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 32 early downs
Bills50.9%right on their number · −4.9 vs their 55.8%, and they swing ±14.5 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 46%
Tendencies room →Raiders12.0%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.6 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Bills20.5%right on their number · +0.4 vs their 20.1%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -65% to 161%
Fourth Down room →Raiders0.0%leaned — took the kick · −26.0 vs their 26.0%, and they swing ±17.9 week to week (−1.45× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Bills80.0%inside their normal wobble · +31.7 vs their 48.3%, and they swing ±44.3 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 49%
Tendencies room →Raiders33.3%leaned — sent pressure · +11.1 vs their 22.2%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+1.23× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bills12.0%leaned — sat back · −11.8 vs their 23.8%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 36%
Tendencies room →Raiders7.7%inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bills8.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.2 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
LV's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 26.0 points below their season mean of 26.0% and 1.5 times their own 17.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
31/37, 274 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
13.2 expected points added · +15.1% completion over expected
Passing · LV
16/24, 185 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-2.0 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Davante Adams banked 7.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 23.7 | −3.5 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 31/37, 274 yd, 3 TD · 3 car, 7 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 21.2 | +6.3 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.4 | +7.7 | 93% | 96% | 35% | 47% | 6/8, 84 yd, 1 TD |
| James CookRB · Committee Back | 19.9 | +3.9 | 59% | 64% | 11% | 0% | 17 car, 123 yd · 4/4, 36 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Featured Receiver | 13.6 | +2.7 | 87% | 95% | 19% | 20% | 7/7, 66 yd |
| Latavius MurrayRB | 11.1 | −4.2 | 23% | 26% | 6% | 0% | 6 car, 22 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 9 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.0 | −3.3 | 71% | 69% | 14% | 2% | 3/5, 10 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.9 | −3.1 | 73% | 72% | 26% | 9% | 9 car, -2 yd · 5/6, 51 yd |
| Damien HarrisRB | 9.3 | −1.6 | 18% | 10% | 0% | — | 7 car, 33 yd, 1 TD |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.3 | −2.4 | 60% | 59% | 17% | 22% | 5/6, 43 yd |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | +5.7 | 15% | 18% | 3% | 5% | 1/1, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Starter QB | 7.5 | −0.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/24, 185 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 1 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +1.0 | 43% | 52% | 9% | 8% | 2/2, 20 yd |
| Tre TuckerWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +0.5 | 23% | 20% | 4% | 22% | 1 car, 34 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +1.3 | 65% | 72% | 4% | 12% | 1/1, 23 yd |
| Deonte HartyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −3.0 | 19% | 23% | 8% | 5% | 2/3, 4 yd |
| Ameer AbdullahRB · Receiving Back | 1.5 | −2.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Reggie GilliamRB | 1.3 | −0.2 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Michael MayerTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.1 | 40% | 40% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Zamir WhiteRB | 0.2 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 23% | 20% | 4% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kyle AllenQB | -0.2 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:22) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle intended for 22-A.Abdullah INTERCEPTED by 43-T.Bernard (50-G.Rousseau) [92-D.Jones] at LV 28. 43-T.Bernard to LV 28 for no gain (22-A.Abdullah).
Q1 8:22 · Raiders · 2nd & 8 at LV 30 · gained nothing · -4.98 EP · −10.2% win probability
142 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 152 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 142 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 147. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 95 yards from the BUF 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
152 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
152 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Raiders6
Bills0Raiders7Bills0How the play was built
A screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
Raiders7Bills6Raiders7Bills7Raiders7Bills13Raiders7Bills14Raiders10Bills14Raiders10Bills20Raiders10Bills21Raiders10Bills27Raiders10Bills28Raiders10Bills31Raiders10Bills37Raiders10Bills38Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Raiders at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 16/24 | 185 | 1 | 2 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 34 | 34.0 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Zamir White | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 | −3.6 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 6 | 8 | 84 | 1 | 35% | +6.5 |
| Josh Jacobs | 5 | 6 | 51 | 0 | 26% | −2.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Spillane | 8 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Divine Deablo | 5 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jakorian Bennett | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Hobbs |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 31/37 | 274 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +13.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_02_LV_BUF
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 28.
Total closed 47; the game landed 48 — over by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
| Josh Jacobs | 9 | -2 | -0.2 | 0 | −6.4 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 9% | +1.9 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 13% | −6.2 |
| Michael Mayer | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.1 |
| Tre Tucker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| DeAndre Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Maxx Crosby | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Epps | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Moehrig | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marcus Peters | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bilal Nichols | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roderic Teamer | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 |
| 123 |
| 7.2 |
| 0 |
| +2.0 |
| Damien Harris | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 1 | +3.5 |
| Latavius Murray | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 1 | −0.4 |
| Josh Allen | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | +3.7 |
| Kyle Allen | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Davis | 6 | 7 | 92 | 1 | 19% | +11.5 |
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 7 | 66 | 0 | 19% | +4.2 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 17% | +1.6 |
| James Cook | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 11% | +1.1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 3% | +2.8 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 14% | −2.5 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | −0.4 |
| Deonte Harty | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 8% | −1.1 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrel Bernard | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Poyer | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tre'Davious White | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Jackson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorian Williams | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ed Oliver | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Benford | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
