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Miami Dolphins 24 at New England Patriots 17. Final.
Dolphins -2 ✓U 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 2
Miami Dolphins 24, Patriots 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:19, 4th and 3, on Jason Sanders — 7.1 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:19 · 4th and 3
Jason Sanders
Patriots
(2:19) 7-J.Sanders 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Dolphins closed -2 and covered, winning by 7.
Miami Dolphins 24–17. Biggest swing: Q4 2:19, Patriots +7.1% win probability on one snap.
7.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chad RylandPatriotsQ2 1:53(1:53) 37-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
6.4pts
Hunter HenryPatriotsQ4 11:27(11:27) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 85-H.Henry for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Patriots at 2 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Dolphins at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.35 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.09 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Dolphins won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.08 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Dolphins166 of 174 plays carry both curves
(2:19) 7-J.Sanders 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Swing +7.1 for PatriotsExpected points +2.97 for PatriotsModel and market agree here.play 163
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:19MIA +7% win prob(2:19) 7-J.Sanders 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
4th · 11:27NE +6% win prob(11:27) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 85-H.Henry for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:53NE +6% win prob(1:53) 37-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
4th · 1:39MIA +6% win prob(1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at MIA 47 for -8 yards (2-B.Chubb).
2nd · 11:15NE +6% win prob(11:15) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 17-J.Waddle to NE 15 for 28 yards (25-Ma.Jones). NE-25-Ma.Jones was injured during the play.
4th · 1:00MIA +6% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki to MIA 34 for -1 yards [2-B.Chubb]. Lateral to 69-C.Strange to MIA 29 for 5 yards (8-J.Holland; 43-A.Van Ginkel). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki to MIA 34 for -1 yards [2-B.Chubb]. Lateral to 69-C.Strange to MIA 30 for 4 yards (8-J.Holland; 43-A.Van Ginkel).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Sanders's 23-yard field goal with 3:04 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:04Jason Sanders·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap B.FergusonLead never changed again+33–0
Dolphins ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.20Dolphins: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.08Patriots: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.35Dolphins: +0.35 expected points added per play
−0.09Patriots: −0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Dolphins: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.06Patriots: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 60 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Patriots’s 70 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 4, Patriots 2.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −2.9 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Patriots6.3%
inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteNE's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 35.4 points above their season mean of 31.2% and 1.5 times their own 24.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Jones pass−9% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right intended for 1-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at MIA 3. 25-X.Howard pushed ob at MIA 3 for no gain (1-D.Parker).
Q3 0:57 · Patriots · 1st & 10 at MIA 22 · gained nothing · -4.42 EP · −9.5% win probability
164 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 81 yards from the MIA 15 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
51%
Yards
677
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR41+0.0173%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR33+0.3939%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.1877%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21-0.5157%
Patriots1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Dolphins 43
Dolphins3Patriots0
Field goal13 plays, from the Dolphins 15 to the Patriots 3
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Dolphins 39
2nd quarter52 plays
Dolphins9Patriots0
Dolphins10Patriots0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Dolphins 27 to the Patriots 8
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 35
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 16 to the Dolphins 19
Dolphins10Patriots3
Field goal13 plays, from the Patriots 34 to the Dolphins 30
Dolphins16Patriots3
Dolphins17Patriots3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Patriots 2
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 28
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 36 to the Dolphins 42
No good12 plays, from the Dolphins 8 to the Patriots 25
Intercepted8 plays, from the Dolphins 49 to the Dolphins 22
The period ended4 plays, from the Dolphins 3 to the Dolphins 6
4th quarter53 plays
Punt1 play
Dolphins17Patriots9
Dolphins17Patriots10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 42 to the Dolphins 6
Intercepted4 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 45
Punt4 plays
Dolphins23Patriots10
Dolphins24Patriots10
Touchdown2 plays
Dolphins24Patriots16
Dolphins24Patriots17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Dolphins 2
The period ended10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Patriots 35
The period ended7 plays, from the Patriots 45 to the Dolphins 33
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Dolphins -2
Closing total
46.5
Dolphins moneyline
-130
Patriots moneyline
+110
Dolphins closed -2 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 41 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors
Kickoff weather
Mild, 65°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south-west; partly cloudy.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Dolphins 7 days · Patriots 7 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Bill Belichick
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 11:36MIA +5% win prob(11:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at NE 46 for -9 yards (51-D.Long).
3rd · 0:57MIA +5% win prob(:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right intended for 1-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at MIA 3. 25-X.Howard pushed ob at MIA 3 for no gain (1-D.Parker).
