2023 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 17, 2023 · Gillette Stadium

Miami DolphinsWinner

New England Patriots

MIA -2 ✓U 46.5 ✓Dolphins closed -2 and covered, winning by 7.

Miami Dolphins 24–17. Biggest swing: Q4 2:19, MIA +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:19MIA 24 — NE 17MIA ball · 4th & 3MIA 94%

(2:19) 7-J.Sanders 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:19MIA +7% win prob(2:19) 7-J.Sanders 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Q4 · 11:27NE +6% win prob(11:27) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 85-H.Henry for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:53NE +6% win prob(1:53) 37-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Q4 · 1:39MIA +6% win prob(1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at MIA 47 for -8 yards (2-B.Chubb).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 3:04MIA Field goal
(3:04) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: MIA 3 — NE 0
Q2 · 9:43MIA Touchdown
(9:43) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 10 — NE 0
Q2 · 1:53NE Field goal
(1:53) 37-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: MIA 10 — NE 3
Q2 · 0:15MIA Touchdown
(:15) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 17 — NE 3
Q4 · 11:27NE Touchdown
(11:27) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 85-H.Henry for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 17 — NE 10
Q4 · 8:51MIA Touchdown
(8:51) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left guard for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 24 — NE 10
Q4 · 5:29NE Touchdown
(5:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 24 — NE 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Patriots
Offensive plays	60	70
Total yards	390 (edge)	289
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	4.1
Expected points added / play	0.20 (edge)	-0.08
Success rate	53% (edge)	53%
Dropback rate	53%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.35 (edge)	-0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.06
Third downs	4/10	8/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	21	21
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

21/30, 249 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

11.3 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

31/42, 231 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-2.4 expected points added · +7.4% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

18 att, 121 yds, 2 TD

5.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

15 att, 50 yds, 1 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

4/6 for 86 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Receiving · NE

DeVante ParkerWR

6/8 for 57 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 0.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	10	21	4:47	Punt
2	MIA	MIA 15	13	81	7:13	Field goal +3
3	NE	NE 25	9	46	3:00	Fumble
4	MIA	MIA 27	12	78	5:21	Touchdown +7
5	NE	NE 25	8	10	2:57	Punt
6	MIA	MIA 16	4	3	0:58	Punt
7	NE	NE 34	10	40	3:55	Field goal +3
8	MIA	MIA 25	10	75	1:38	Touchdown +7
9	NE	NE 25	2	0	0:11	End of half
10	MIA	MIA 25	5	-4	2:08	Punt
11	NE	NE 36	6	18	2:57	Punt
12	MIA	MIA 8	11	71	6:23	Missed field goal
13	NE	MIA 49	8	27	2:40	Interception
14	MIA	MIA 3	4	3	1:05	Punt
15	NE	NE 42	9	53	3:26	Touchdown +7
16	MIA	MIA 30	4	15	1:25	Interception
17	NE	NE 14	4	-10	1:05	Punt
18	MIA	NE 43	2	43	0:06	Touchdown +7
19	NE	NE 25	11	59	3:20	Touchdown +7
20	MIA	MIA 25	7	25	3:11	Missed field goal
21	NE	NE 45	6	25	1:23	Turnover on downs
22	MIA	MIA 30	2	0	0:51	End of game

7 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 81 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	21/30	249	1	1	1	11.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Raheem Mostert	18	121	6.7	2	5.4
Salvon Ahmed	3	13	4.3	0	0.2
Devon Achane	1	5	5.0	0	0.1
Erik Ezukanma	3	5	1.7	0	-1.9
Tua Tagovailoa	4	3	0.8	0	-2.4
Jaylen Waddle	1	-2	-2.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jaylen Waddle	4	6	86	0	21%	6.0
Tyreek Hill	5	9	40	1	31%	1.6
River Cracraft	2	2	34	0	7%	1.9
Salvon Ahmed	3	3	28	0	10%	1.8
Braxton Berrios	2	3	28	0	10%	2.6
Durham Smythe	3	3	23	0	10%	1.6
Raheem Mostert	1	1	6	0	3%	0.3
Devon Achane	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.2
Erik Ezukanma	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jevon Holland	5	5	0.0	0	1
Christian Wilkins	5	2	1.0	0	0
Bradley Chubb	5	2	1.0	0	0
David Long Jr.	3	3	1.0	0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	1	4	1.0	0	1
Raekwon Davis	3	2	0.0	0	0
Eli Apple	4	1	0.0	0	2
Xavien Howard	5	0	0.0	1	1
Jerome Baker	2	3	0.0	0	0
Kader Kohou	3	1	0.0	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	31/42	231	1	1	4	-2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	15	50	3.3	1	-1.1
Mac Jones	5	25	5.0	0	5.1
Ezekiel Elliott	5	13	2.6	0	-2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVante Parker	6	8	57	0	19%	0.3
Hunter Henry	6	7	52	1	17%	5.0
Mike Gesicki	5	6	33	0	14%	-1.5
Kendrick Bourne	4	9	29	0	21%	-1.9
JuJu Smith-Schuster	5	6	28	0	14%	0.9
Demario Douglas	2	2	19	0	5%	-2.8
Rhamondre Stevenson	3	3	10	0	7%	-0.5
Ty Montgomery	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ja'Whaun Bentley	3	3	0.0	0	0
Christian Gonzalez	6	0	0.0	1	1
Jabrill Peppers	3	3	0.0	0	0
Jahlani Tavai	3	2	0.0	0	0
Myles Bryant	5	0	0.0	0	1
Matt Judon	4	0	1.0	0	0
Kyle Dugger	2	1	0.0	0	1
Marcus Jones	3	0	0.0	0	0
Davon Godchaux	1	2	0.0	0	0
Shaun Wade	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -2
Closing total: 46.5
MIA moneyline: -130
NE moneyline: +110

Dolphins closed -2 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 41 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: MIA 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Mike McDaniel vs Bill Belichick

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.