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Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 2 · Thu, Sep 14, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 2
It turned at Q2 0:41, 2nd and 10, on Justin Jefferson — 14.0 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:41 · 2nd and 10
Justin Jefferson
Eagles
(:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson to PHI 1 for 30 yards (26-T.Edmunds). FUMBLES (26-T.Edmunds), ball out of bounds at PHI 1. The Replay Official reviewed the ball was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson to PHI 1 for 30 yards (26-T.Edmunds). FUMBLES (26-T.Edmunds), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.
Philadelphia Eagles 34–28. Biggest swing: Q2 0:41, Eagles +14.0% win probability on one snap.
14.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.22 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.73 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — 1 giveaway, against Vikings at 3 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 10 on third down, against Eagles at 6 of 14 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
(:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson to PHI 1 for 30 yards (26-T.Edmunds). FUMBLES (26-T.Edmunds), ball out of bounds at PHI 1. The Replay Official reviewed the ball was out of bounds ruling, and
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jalen Hurts's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 2:46 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Vikingscategory by categoryEagles
Eagles ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.73 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 55 snaps at a 84% dropback rate against Eagles’s 75 at 41%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 4, Eagles 5.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's early-down pass rate, 38.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 0.4 points clear of the next team along.
60 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
MIN's early-down pass rate, 79.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
PHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 10.2% in week 1 against 21.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
PHI's pass rate over expected turned over: +5.4 pts in week 1 against −13.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
75 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Vikings8.9 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +6.7 vs their 2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+1.43× that swing) · 55 snaps
Eagles-13.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −11.9 vs their -1.5 pts, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.56× that swing) · 75 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 89%
Tendencies room →Vikings79.5%leaned — passed early · +19.7 vs their 59.8%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+1.73× that swing) · 44 early downs
Eagles38.3%leaned — ran early · −18.4 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−1.89× that swing) · 60 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 50%
Tendencies room →Vikings23.9%inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 29.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Eagles19.4%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 21.9%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 108%
Fourth Down room →Vikings—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 36.9%.
Eagles—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 59.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 97%
Tendencies room →Vikings51.6%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 52.5%, and they swing ±17.1 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Eagles17.4%inside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 27%
Tendencies room →Vikings12.9%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Eagles21.7%leaned — got home · +8.2 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+1.59× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
PHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 38.3%, 18.4 points below their season mean of 56.8% and 1.9 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
31/44, 364 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
17.5 expected points added · +8.2% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
18/23, 193 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
1.1 expected points added · +13.3% completion over expected
Receiving · MIN
11/13 for 159 yds, 0 TD
30% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
DeVonta Smith banked 12.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 28.6 | +9.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 31/44, 364 yd, 4 TD |
| D'Andre SwiftRB · Committee Back | 27.1 | +4.0 | 75% | 68% | 14% | 0% | 28 car, 175 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 6 yd |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Featured Receiver | 25.6 | +7.5 | 86% | 87% | 19% | 14% | 7/8, 66 yd, 2 TD |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 25.2 | −1.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/23, 193 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 12 car, 35 yd, 2 TD |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 24.9 | +4.4 | 100% | 100% | 30% | 34% | 11/13, 159 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Featured Receiver | 23.1 | +12.8 | 100% | 87% | 23% | 59% | 4/5, 131 yd, 1 TD |
| Jordan AddisonWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.2 | +8.0 | 69% | 78% | 12% | 25% | 3/5, 72 yd, 1 TD |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.4 | +2.2 | 97% | 96% | 14% | 15% | 3/6, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Alpha Receiver | 8.2 | −3.0 | 96% | 84% | 32% | 17% | 6/7, 22 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.9 | −4.3 | 96% | 84% | 27% | 26% | 4/6, 29 yd |
| Alexander MattisonRB · Bell Cow Back | 4.9 | −6.8 | 76% | 72% | 14% | 1% | 8 car, 28 yd · 3/6, 11 yd |
| Boston ScottRB | 4.0 | +1.4 | 13% | 6% | 0% | — | 5 car, 40 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −0.9 | 34% | 26% | 7% | 0% | 2/3, 13 yd |
| Ty ChandlerRB | 2.9 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Rashaad PennyRB | 2.4 | −0.6 | 12% | 13% | 5% | 0% | 3 car, 9 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Brandon PowellWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Britain CoveyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson to PHI 1 for 30 yards (26-T.Edmunds). FUMBLES (26-T.Edmunds), ball out of bounds at PHI 1. The Replay Official reviewed the ball was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson to PHI 1 for 30 yards (26-T.Edmunds). FUMBLES (26-T.Edmunds), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.
Q2 0:41 · Vikings · 2nd & 10 at PHI 31 · gained 30 · -3.13 EP · −15.3% win probability
168 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 184 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 179. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 86 yards from the MIN 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Vikings0
Eagles3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Vikings6Eagles3Vikings7Eagles3Vikings7Eagles9Vikings7Eagles10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Vikings7Eagles13How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Vikings7Eagles19Vikings7Eagles20Vikings7Eagles26Vikings7Eagles27Vikings13Eagles27Vikings14Eagles27Vikings20Eagles27Vikings21Eagles27Vikings21Eagles33Vikings21Eagles34Vikings27Eagles34Vikings28Eagles34Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Vikings at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 31/44 | 364 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +17.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 | −6.0 |
| Ty Chandler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 11 | 13 | 159 | 0 | 30% | +6.1 |
| Jordan Addison | 3 | 5 | 72 | 1 | 12% | +5.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camryn Bynum | 5 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 5 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Metellus | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ivan Pace |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 18/23 | 193 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_02_MIN_PHI
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -6 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 49; the game landed 62 — over by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
| T.J. Hockenson | 7 | 8 | 66 | 2 | 19% | +7.9 |
| K.J. Osborn | 3 | 6 | 34 | 1 | 14% | +2.1 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 7% | −0.2 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 14% | −2.9 |
| Ty Chandler | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 5% | −0.2 |
| 5 |
| 3 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Danielle Hunter | 4 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Hicks | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Smith | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akayleb Evans | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Byron Murphy | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Patrick Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 |
| 175 |
| 6.3 |
| 1 |
| +8.5 |
| Boston Scott | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Jalen Hurts | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 2 | +0.4 |
| Rashaad Penny | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 5 | 131 | 1 | 23% | +7.9 |
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 | 27% | +1.2 |
| Dallas Goedert | 6 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 32% | −2.3 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 14% | −0.4 |
| Rashaad Penny | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | −0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Cunningham | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrell Edmunds | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Slay | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Jobe | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mario Goodrich | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Evans | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Avonte Maddox | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nicholas Morrow | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Davis | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Carter | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
