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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 2 · Mon, Sep 18, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
SaintsNew Orleans20
BY 3final margin
PanthersCarolina17
New Orleans Saints 20 at Carolina Panthers 17. Final.
Saints -3 pushU 39.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 2
New Orleans Saints 20, Panthers 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 1:52, 3rd and 6, on Bryce Young — 13.4 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:52 · 3rd and 6
Bryce Young
Saints
(1:52) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at NO 23 for -5 yards (96-C.Granderson). FUMBLES (96-C.Granderson) [96-C.Granderson], touched at NO 21, RECOVERED by NO-29-P.Adebo at NO 41.
Saints closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
New Orleans Saints 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 1:52, Saints +13.4% win probability on one snap.
13.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Derek CarrPanthersQ1 12:45(12:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at NO 36 for -7 yards (49-F.Luvu).
10.2pts
Chris OlaveSaintsQ3 7:22(7:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to CAR 30 for 42 yards (23-C.Henderson).
12.8pts
What separated them
Third down
Saints won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Panthers at 4 of 14 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.04 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.15 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Saints won this one — 1 giveaway, against Panthers at 2 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Saints won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Panthers at 4 chunk plays.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Saints169 of 182 plays carry both curves
(1:52) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at NO 23 for -5 yards (96-C.Granderson). FUMBLES (96-C.Granderson) [96-C.Granderson], touched at NO 21, RECOVERED by NO-29-P.Adebo at NO 41.
Swing −13.4 for PanthersExpected points −4.77 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 17 points higher than the market did.play 80
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:52NO +13% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at NO 23 for -5 yards (96-C.Granderson). FUMBLES (96-C.Granderson) [96-C.Granderson], touched at NO 21, RECOVERED by NO-29-P.Adebo at NO 41.
3rd · 7:22CAR +13% win prob(7:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to CAR 30 for 42 yards (23-C.Henderson).
1st · 12:45NO +10% win prob(12:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at NO 36 for -7 yards (49-F.Luvu).
4th · 4:52CAR +10% win prob(4:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed to CAR 35 for 45 yards (26-D.Jackson).
4th · 6:20NO +9% win prob(6:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at NO 18 for -5 yards (56-D.Davis).
3rd · 9:15CAR +9% win prob(9:15) 4-E.Pineiro 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
2nd · 3:16
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tony Jones's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 3:03 left in the 3rd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:10Eddy Pineiro·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+30–3
1st0:39Blake Grupe·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder L.Hedley · snap Z.Wood+33–3
2nd9:55Blake Grupe·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder L.Hedley · snap Z.Wood+36–3
3rd9:15Eddy Pineiro·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+36–6
3rd3:03Tony Jones·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+713–6
4th5:34Eddy Pineiro·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+313–9
Saints ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Saints: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.15Panthers: −0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Saints: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.21Panthers: −0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.15Saints: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.01Panthers: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 71 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Panthers’s 57 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Panthers 3.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +8.8 vs their 11.2%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+1.59× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Panthers12.2%
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteNO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 20.0%, 8.8 points above their season mean of 11.2% and 1.6 times their own 5.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Young sacked−17% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:52) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at NO 23 for -5 yards (96-C.Granderson). FUMBLES (96-C.Granderson) [96-C.Granderson], touched at NO 21, RECOVERED by NO-29-P.Adebo at NO 41.
Q2 1:52 · Panthers · 3rd & 6 at NO 18 · lost 3 · -4.77 EP · −16.6% win probability
168 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 79 yards from the NO 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
43%
Yards
582
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.1465%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.1979%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.2133%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.1282%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 43
Saints0Panthers3
Field goal10 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Saints 34
Saints3Panthers3
Field goal18 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Panthers 8
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 22 to the Panthers 29
Saints6Panthers3
Field goal13 plays, from the Saints 44 to the Panthers 4
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 26
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 31 to midfield
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Panthers 32
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Saints 27
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended5 plays, from the Saints 37 to the Saints 18
The period ended8 plays, from the Saints 41 to the Panthers 46
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter1 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 49
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 3 to the Saints 6
Saints6Panthers6
Field goal5 plays, from the Saints 41 to the Saints 32
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Saints12Panthers6
Saints13Panthers6
Touchdown14 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Panthers 2
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 28
The period ended5 plays, from the Saints 18 to the Saints 39
4th quarter48 plays
Punt5 plays, from midfield to the Panthers 42
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Saints13Panthers9
Field goal13 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Saints 13
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Saints19Panthers9
Saints20Panthers9
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Panthers 2
Saints20Panthers15
Saints20Panthers17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Saints 3
The period ended8 plays, from the Panthers 45 to the Panthers 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
