2023 Week 2 · Mon, Sep 18, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium
New Orleans SaintsWinner
20
Carolina Panthers
17
New Orleans Saints 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 1:52, NO +13% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(1:52) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at NO 23 for -5 yards (96-C.Granderson). FUMBLES (96-C.Granderson) [96-C.Granderson], touched at NO 21, RECOVERED by NO-29-P.Adebo at NO 41.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q2 · 1:52NO +13% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at NO 23 for -5 yards (96-C.Granderson). FUMBLES (96-C.Granderson) [96-C.Granderson], touched at NO 21, RECOVERED by NO-29-P.Adebo at NO 41.
- Q3 · 7:22CAR +13% win prob(7:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to CAR 30 for 42 yards (23-C.Henderson).
- Q1 · 12:45NO +10% win prob(12:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at NO 36 for -7 yards (49-F.Luvu).
- Q4 · 4:52CAR +10% win prob(4:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed to CAR 35 for 45 yards (26-D.Jackson).
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 7:10CAR Field goal
(7:10) 4-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: NO 0 — CAR 3 - Q1 · 0:39NO Field goal
(:39) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 3 — CAR 3 - Q2 · 9:55NO Field goal
(9:55) 19-B.Grupe 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 6 — CAR 3 - Q3 · 9:15CAR Field goal
(9:15) 4-E.Pineiro 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: NO 6 — CAR 6 - Q3 · 3:03NO Touchdown
(3:03) 34-T.Jones right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 13 — CAR 6 - Q4 · 5:34CAR Field goal
(5:34) 4-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: NO 13 — CAR 9 - Q4 · 3:18NO Touchdown
(3:18) 34-T.Jones up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 20 — CAR 9 - Q4 · 1:21CAR Touchdown
(1:21) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: NO 20 — CAR 17
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Saints | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 71 | 57 |
| Total yards | 345 (edge) | 241 |
| Yards per play | 4.9 (edge) | 4.2 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.04 (edge) | -0.15 |
| Success rate | 48% (edge) | 44% |
| Dropback rate | 58% | 70% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.04 (edge) | -0.21 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.15 (edge) | -0.01 |
| Third downs | 7/15 (edge) | 4/14 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 (edge) | 4 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 21 (edge) | 13 |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 4 |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 2 |
Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · NO
21/36, 228 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-2.2 expected points added · -2.0% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
22/33, 153 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-11.3 expected points added · +3.4% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | NO 25 | 8 | 11 | 3:03 | Punt | |
| 2 | CAR | CAR 35 | 9 | 36 | 4:53 | Field goal +3 | |
| 3 | NO | NO 25 | 16 | 59 | 6:28 | Field goal +3 | |
| 4 | CAR | CAR 25 | 5 | 14 | 1:21 | Punt | |
| 5 | NO | NO 44 | 12 | 46 | 4:23 | Field goal +3 | |
| 6 | CAR | CAR 25 | 5 | -3 | 1:31 | Punt | |
| 7 | NO | NO 31 | 5 | 19 | 2:03 | Punt | |
| 8 | CAR | CAR 10 | 5 | 22 | 2:15 | Punt | |
| 9 | NO | NO 21 | 3 | 6 | 0:57 | Interception | |
| 10 | CAR | NO 37 | 4 | 16 | 1:25 | Fumble | |
| 11 | NO | NO 41 | 7 | -2 | 1:13 | Punt | |
| 12 | CAR | CAR 19 | 1 | 3 | 0:28 | End of half | |
| 13 | CAR | CAR 25 | 8 | 19 | 3:17 | Fumble | |
| 14 | NO | NO 3 | 4 | 3 | 1:18 | Punt | |
| 15 | CAR | NO 41 | 4 | 9 | 1:15 | Field goal +3 | |
| 16 | NO | NO 25 | 12 | 80 | 6:14 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 17 | CAR | CAR 25 | 5 | 3 | 1:31 | Punt | |
| 18 | NO | NO 18 | 8 | 33 | 3:38 | Punt | |
| 19 | CAR | CAR 20 | 11 | 45 | 7:17 | Field goal +3 | |
| 20 | NO | NO 21 | 8 | 79 | 2:16 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 21 | CAR | CAR 25 | 13 | 77 | 1:58 | Touchdown +8 | |
| 22 | NO | CAR 45 | 5 | 11 | 1:16 | End of game |
8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
New Orleans Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 21/36 | 228 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -2.2 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 9 | 75 | 8.3 | 0 | 4.6 |
| Tony Jones | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 2 | 1.3 |
| Jamaal Williams | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Derek Carr | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 | -2.7 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 6 | 11 | 86 | 0 | 32% | 2.1 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 4 | 63 | 0 | 12% | 3.9 |
| Michael Thomas | 7 | 9 | 55 | 0 | 26% | 2.7 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 6% | 1.8 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 9% | 0.2 |
| Tony Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -1.8 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.6 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 6% | -1.1 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Werner | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Maye | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshon Lattimore | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Khalen Saunders | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paulson Adebo | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nathan Shepherd | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
Carolina Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 22/33 | 153 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -11.3 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 0 | -2.2 |
| Bryce Young | 2 | 34 | 17.0 | 0 | 3.0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | 2.1 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 7 | 9 | 54 | 1 | 29% | 3.2 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 5 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 16% | 0.9 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 3 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 26% | -4.7 |
| Hayden Hurst | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 10% | 1.1 |
| D.J. Chark | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | 0.9 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 16% | -2.5 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Woods | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Frankie Luvu | 2 | 5 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Henderson | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donte Jackson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamu Grugier-Hill | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vonn Bell | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Shaq Thompson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Houston | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NO -3
- Closing total
- 39.5
- NO moneyline
- -175
- CAR moneyline
- +145
Saints closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 37 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Bank of America Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors
- Kickoff weather
- —
- Referee
- Scott Novak
- Rest
- NO 8 days · CAR 8 days
- Coaches
- Dennis Allen vs Frank Reich
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.