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New York Giants 31 at Arizona Cardinals 28. Final.
Giants -5 no coverO 40 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 2
New York Giants 31, Cardinals 28 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 6:52, 1st and 10, on Jalin Hyatt — 13.3 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:52 · 1st and 10
Jalin Hyatt
Giants
(6:52) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 13-J.Hyatt to ARI 18 for 31 yards (13-K.Clark).
Dome
Giants closed -5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
New York Giants 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 6:52, Giants +13.3% win probability on one snap.
13.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jalen ThompsonCardinalsQ2 4:30(4:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 26-S.Barkley INTERCEPTED by 34-J.Thompson at ARI 31. 34-J.Thompson ran ob at NYG 34 for 35 yards (8-D.Jones).
11.0pts
Isaiah HodginsGiantsQ4 4:29(4:29) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 18-I.Hodgins for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.4pts
What separated them
Third down
Giants won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Cardinals at 4 of 10 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Giants won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Giants won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Cardinals at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Giants at 1 giveaway.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Giants171 of 182 plays carry both curves
(6:52) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 13-J.Hyatt to ARI 18 for 31 yards (13-K.Clark).
Swing −13.3 for CardinalsExpected points −1.89 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 9 points higher than the market did.play 148
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 6:52ARI +13% win prob(6:52) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 13-J.Hyatt to ARI 18 for 31 yards (13-K.Clark).
2nd · 4:30NYG +11% win prob(4:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 26-S.Barkley INTERCEPTED by 34-J.Thompson at ARI 31. 34-J.Thompson ran ob at NYG 34 for 35 yards (8-D.Jones).
4th · 4:29ARI +10% win prob(4:29) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 18-I.Hodgins for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:00ARI +10% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep right to 86-D.Slayton to ARI 36 for 18 yards (20-Ma.Wilson).
3rd · 15:00ARI +9% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 13-J.Hyatt to ARI 17 for 58 yards (20-Ma.Wilson).
4th · 2:39ARI +9% win prob(2:39) 16-N.Cooney punts 48 yards to NYG 28, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 20-E.Gray.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Graham Gano's 34-yard field goal with 0:23 left in the 4th put New York Giants ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th8:57Saquon Barkley·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+721–28
4th4:29Isaiah Hodgins·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+728–28
4th0:23Graham Gano·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.KreiterLead never changed again+331–28
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryCardinals
Giants6–2Cardinals
439Total yards381
6.6Yards per play6.2
54%Success rate44%
58%Third-down rate40%
4Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays9
25First downs22
3Sacks taken0
1Turnovers0
The read
Giants ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cardinals, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Giants: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.18Cardinals: +0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Giants: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.31Cardinals: +0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.16Giants: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.04Cardinals: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 67 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 61 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Giants 5, Cardinals 4.
NoteGiants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYG's play-action rate, 48.9%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 10.3 points clear of the next team along.
2.9 times their own weekly swing above their number.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 21 pts
leaned — got home · +7.0 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.17× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Cardinals8.9%
right on their number · −1.0 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteNYG's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 48.9%, 29.0 points above their season mean of 19.9% and 2.9 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Graham Gano+19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:23) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Q4 0:23 · Giants · 4th & 6 at ARI 16 · gained nothing · +0.24 EP · +18.6% win probability
169 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 86 yards from the ARI 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
43%
Yards
820
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.0364%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.2050%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.8760%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR14-0.0257%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.4250%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
No good8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Giants 37
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 45 to the Cardinals 47
Giants0Cardinals6
Giants0Cardinals7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 14 to the Giants 4
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 45
The period ended7 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Giants 37
2nd quarter44 plays
Giants0Cardinals13
Giants0Cardinals14
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays
Giants0Cardinals17
Field goal10 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to the Giants 19
Intercepted11 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cardinals 36
Giants0Cardinals20
Field goal8 plays, from the Giants 34 to the Giants 20
The period ended8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 44
3rd quarter38 plays
Giants6Cardinals20
Giants7Cardinals20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cardinals 14
Giants7Cardinals26
Giants7Cardinals28
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Giants 3
Giants13Cardinals28
Giants14Cardinals28
Touchdown14 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cardinals 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Giants 43
4th quarter61 plays
Punt3 plays
Giants20Cardinals28
Giants21Cardinals28
Touchdown16 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Cardinals 4
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 26
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Giants27Cardinals28
Giants28Cardinals28
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 36 to the Cardinals 6
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 29
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Giants31Cardinals28
Field goal12 plays, from the Giants 28 to the Cardinals 16
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerOnePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.0 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 39
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
