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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:54 AM ET · 16 to play
Seattle Seahawks 37, Lions 31 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 8:14, 2nd and 15, on Tre Brown — 26.4 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:14 · 2nd and 15
Tre Brown
Seahawks
(8:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 26-J.Gibbs INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Brown [10-U.Nwosu] at DET 40. 22-T.Brown for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Lions closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Seattle Seahawks 37–31. Biggest swing: Q4 8:14, Seahawks +26.4% win probability on one snap.
26.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Geno SmithLionsQ4 2:11(2:11) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 3 for -17 yards (34-A.Anzalone).
16.1pts
DK MetcalfSeahawksOT 8:35(8:35) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 14-D.Metcalf to DET 38 for 16 yards (23-J.Jacobs; 31-K.Joseph).
23.0pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — no giveaways, against Lions at 3 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.10 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.32 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Seahawks won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Lions at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.24 expected points per snap, against Lions at -0.04 expected points per snap.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Seahawks171 of 181 plays carry both curves
(8:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 26-J.Gibbs INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Brown [10-U.Nwosu] at DET 40. 22-T.Brown for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −26.4 for LionsExpected points −8.18 for LionsModel and market agree here.play 142
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 8:14SEA +26% win prob(8:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 26-J.Gibbs INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Brown [10-U.Nwosu] at DET 40. 22-T.Brown for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 8:35DET +23% win prob(8:35) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 14-D.Metcalf to DET 38 for 16 yards (23-J.Jacobs; 31-K.Joseph).
4th · 2:11SEA +16% win prob(2:11) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 3 for -17 yards (34-A.Anzalone).
Overtime · 7:33DET +15% win prob(7:33) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 84-C.Parkinson to DET 14 for 21 yards (23-J.Jacobs).
1st · 9:28DET +12% win prob(9:28) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf to DET 1 for 16 yards (23-J.Jacobs, 31-K.Joseph).
3rd · 15:00SEA +10% win prob(15:00) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle to DET 22 for -3 yards (10-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (10-U.Nwosu), RECOVERED by SEA-90-Ja.Reed at DET 23.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Lockett's 6-yard touchdown catch with 5:48 left in overtime put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Seahawks ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.24Seahawks: +0.24 expected points added per play
−0.04Lions: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.31Seahawks: +0.31 expected points added per play
+0.16Lions: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.10Seahawks: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.32Lions: −0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 66 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Lions’s 64 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 5, Lions 5.
NoteLions outgained Seahawks 418-393 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DET's sack or hit rate, 2.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 0.2 points clear of the next team along.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
SEA's pass rate over expected turned over: −0.7 pts in week 1 against +8.7 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points.
SEA's play-action rate turned over: 13.8% in week 1 against 38.6% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · +1.5 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Lions2.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −15.3 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.78× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteSEA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.7 pts, 8.7 points above their season mean of 0.0 pts and 1.9 times their own 4.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
60Phil HaynesG · Every snap100%72 snaps
78Stone ForsytheT · Every snap100%72 snaps
68Damien LewisG · Every snap100%72 snaps
74Jake CurhanT · Every snap100%72 snaps
7Geno SmithQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
63Evan BrownC · Full-time92%66 snaps
16Tyler LockettWR · Full-time86%62 snaps
14DK MetcalfWR · Full-time83%60 snaps
9Kenneth WalkerRB · Heavy rotation61%44 snaps
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Heavy rotation56%40 snaps
89Will DisslyTE · Heavy rotation51%37 snaps
84Colby ParkinsonTE · Heavy rotation50%36 snaps
87Noah FantTE · Rotational47%34 snaps
26Zach CharbonnetRB · Rotational26%19 snaps
19Jake BoboWR · Rotational25%18 snaps
31DeeJay DallasRB · Situational13%9 snaps
51Olusegun OluwatimiC · Situational8%6 snaps
13Cody ThompsonWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Mike MorrisDEBen BrownGMcClendon CurtisGDevin BushILBBoye MafeOLBJamal AdamsSSCharles CrossT
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Drew LockQB
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
58Penei SewellT · Every snap100%66 snaps
67Matt NelsonT · Every snap100%66 snaps
73Jonah JacksonG · Every snap100%66 snaps
77Frank RagnowC · Every snap100%66 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
87Sam LaPortaTE · Full-time82%54 snaps
8Josh ReynoldsWR · Full-time80%53 snaps
14Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Heavy rotation74%49 snaps
72Halapoulivaati VaitaiG · Heavy rotation71%47 snaps
0Marvin JonesWR · Heavy rotation52%34 snaps
26Jahmyr GibbsRB · Rotational48%32 snaps
5David MontgomeryRB · Rotational45%30 snaps
11Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational42%28 snaps
89Brock WrightTE · Rotational39%26 snaps
60Graham GlasgowG · Rotational29%19 snaps
13Craig ReynoldsRB · Situational15%10 snaps
80Antoine GreenWR · Situational11%7 snaps
45Jason CabindaFB · Situational8%5 snaps
82James MitchellTE · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 5
Steven GilmoreCBEmmanuel MoseleyCBIsaiah BuggsDTBrodric MartinDTTaylor DeckerT
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
J.Goff pass−27% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 26-J.Gibbs INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Brown [10-U.Nwosu] at DET 40. 22-T.Brown for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 8:14 · Lions · 2nd & 15 at DET 35 · gained nothing · -8.18 EP · −27.2% win probability
169 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 75 yards from the SEA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
47%
Yards
811
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.0461%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.1768%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR13+0.3854%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.4555%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.1250%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.3267%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Seahawks6Lions0
Seahawks7Lions0
Touchdown18 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Lions 1
Seahawks7Lions6
Seahawks7Lions7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Seahawks 22
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Seahawks 37
The period ended3 plays, from the Lions 12 to the Lions 17
2nd quarter46 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Seahawks 28
No good6 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Lions 27
Seahawks7Lions13
Seahawks7Lions14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Seahawks 36
The period ended9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Lions 43
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 6 to the Lions 11
No good8 plays, from the Seahawks 36 to the Lions 38
Fumble lost1 play
3rd quarter41 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
Seahawks13Lions14
Seahawks14Lions14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Lions 23 to the Lions 3
Seahawks14Lions20
Seahawks14Lions21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Seahawks 4
Seahawks17Lions21
Field goal14 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Lions 7
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 45
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter45 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Seahawks23Lions21
Seahawks24Lions21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 41 to the Lions 3
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Seahawks30Lions21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 40
Seahawks31Lions21
Seahawks31Lions27
Seahawks31Lions28
Touchdown12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Seahawks 4
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Seahawks 30
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Seahawks31Lions31
Field goal8 plays, from midfield to the Seahawks 20
Overtime11 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Seahawks37Lions31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Lions 6
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -4.5
Closing total
47.5
Seahawks moneyline
+180
Lions moneyline
-218
Lions closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 68 — over by 20.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Seahawks 7 days · Lions 10 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Dan Campbell
4th · 2:17
SEA +10% win prob
(2:17) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 84-C.Parkinson to SEA 46 for 16 yards (2-C.Gardner-Johnson). PENALTY on SEA-84-C.Parkinson, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 30 - No Play.
4th · 1:44DET +10% win prob(1:44) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds to SEA 38 for 12 yards (20-J.Love) [90-Ja.Reed].
