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2023 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 17, 2023 · SoFi Stadium

San Francisco 49ersWinner

30

Los Angeles Rams

23

SF -7.5 no coverO 45 ✓Dome

San Francisco 49ers 30–23. Biggest swing: Q2 0:17, LA +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LA ↑SF ↓
Q2 · 0:17SF 10 — LA 17SF ball · 2nd & 10SF 58%

(:17) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep left to 19-D.Samuel [91-K.Turner]. PENALTY on LA-1-D.Kendrick, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at LA 20 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 0:17LA +12% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep left to 19-D.Samuel [91-K.Turner]. PENALTY on LA-1-D.Kendrick, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at LA 20 - No Play.
  2. Q3 · 1:26LA +10% win prob(1:26) 4-J.Moody 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
  3. Q2 · 9:55LA +8% win prob(9:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q2 · 3:46LA +7% win prob(3:46) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-P.Nacua to SF 23 for 13 yards (29-T.Hufanga).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:31SF Touchdown

    (8:31) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 7 — LA 0
  2. Q1 · 2:00LA Field goal

    (2:00) 8-B.Maher 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: SF 7 — LA 3
  3. Q2 · 13:35SF Field goal

    (13:35) 4-J.Moody 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: SF 10 — LA 3
  4. Q2 · 9:55LA Touchdown

    (9:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 10 — LA 10
  5. Q2 · 1:50LA Touchdown

    (1:50) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 10 — LA 17
  6. Q2 · 0:01SF Touchdown

    (:01) 13-B.Purdy up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 17 — LA 17
  7. Q3 · 1:26SF Field goal

    (1:26) 4-J.Moody 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: SF 20 — LA 17
  8. Q4 · 11:37SF Touchdown

    (11:37) 19-D.Samuel left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 27 — LA 17
  9. Q4 · 7:18LA Field goal

    (7:18) 8-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: SF 27 — LA 20
  10. Q4 · 3:02SF Field goal

    (3:02) 4-J.Moody 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: SF 30 — LA 20
  11. Q4 · 0:04LA Field goal

    (:04) 8-B.Maher 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: SF 30 — LA 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric49ersRams
Offensive plays5477
Total yards365386 (edge)
Yards per play6.8 (edge)5.0
Expected points added / play0.14 (edge)-0.04
Success rate48% (edge)47%
Dropback rate48%77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.13 (edge)-0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.15 (edge)0.14
Third downs2/107/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)2
First downs gained on snaps1926 (edge)
Sacks taken11
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Rams outgained 49ers 386–365 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

34/55, 307 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-5.1 expected points added · -9.8% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

17/25, 206 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

3.3 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

20 att, 116 yds, 1 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

14 att, 52 yds, 1 TD

0.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Puka NacuaWR

15/20 for 147 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Tutu AtwellWR

7/9 for 77 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1SFSF 2513756:35Touchdown +7
2LALA 2512606:31Field goal +3
3SFSF 258663:22Field goal +3
4LALA 4010533:43Touchdown +7
5SFSF 257302:47Punt
6LALA 1214835:17Touchdown +7
7SFSF 259561:45Touchdown +7
8LALA 219304:58Punt
9SFSF 18431:17Punt
10LALA 287514:35Interception
11SFSF 286332:49Field goal +3
12LALA 255-101:01Punt
13SFSF 268743:52Touchdown +7
14LALA 2515564:15Field goal +3
15SFSF 25581:44Punt
16LALA 20350:41Interception
17SFLA 15471:49Field goal +3
18LALA 30580:36Turnover on downs
19SFLA 385130:49Punt
20LALA 3011501:34Field goal +3

11 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 83 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy17/252060013.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Christian McCaffrey201165.81-0.4
Deebo Samuel5387.612.0
Brock Purdy351.712.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Deebo Samuel6963038%-1.1
Jauan Jennings2351013%1.6
Brandon Aiyuk3643025%2.6
George Kittle3330013%1.7
Christian McCaffrey3319013%0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Dre Greenlaw640.001
Charvarius Ward720.001
Fred Warner721.001
Deommodore Lenoir720.011
Isaiah Oliver240.011
Talanoa Hufanga230.000
Ambry Thomas300.000
Tashaun Gipson120.000
Arik Armstead210.000
Nick Bosa110.000

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matthew Stafford34/55307121-5.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kyren Williams14523.710.0
Matthew Stafford4174.30-0.4
Ben Skowronek11111.000.7
Tutu Atwell155.000.6
Puka Nacua242.001.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Puka Nacua1520147038%6.6
Tutu Atwell7977017%4.0
Kyren Williams61048119%-4.3
Tyler Higbee3712013%-2.6
Ben Skowronek111002%1.1
Van Jefferson14908%-5.5
Ronnie Rivers11402%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ernest Jones450.000
Jordan Fuller340.000
Russ Yeast240.000
Jonah Williams230.000
Michael Hoecht320.000
Christian Rozeboom140.000
Cobie Durant120.001
Byron Young121.000
Quentin Lake200.000
Derion Kendrick110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -7.5
Closing total
45
SF moneyline
-340
LA moneyline
+270

49ers closed -7.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45; the game landed 53 — over by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
SF 7 days · LA 7 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Sean McVay

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.