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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:30 AM ET · 16 to play
San Francisco 49ers 30 at Los Angeles Rams 23. Final.
49ers -7.5 no coverO 45 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 2
San Francisco 49ers 30, Rams 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:17, 2nd and 10, on Brock Purdy — 11.6 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:17 · 2nd and 10
Brock Purdy
49ers
(:17) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep left to 19-D.Samuel [91-K.Turner]. PENALTY on LA-1-D.Kendrick, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at LA 20 - No Play.
Dome
49ers closed -7.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
San Francisco 49ers 30–23. Biggest swing: Q2 0:17, 49ers +11.6% win probability on one snap.
11.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kyren WilliamsRamsQ2 9:55(9:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.4pts
Jake Moody49ersQ3 1:26(1:26) 4-J.Moody 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
10.3pts
What separated them
Third down
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 14 on third down, against 49ers at 2 of 10 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Rams at 2 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Rams at 2 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.04 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on 49ers168 of 182 plays carry both curves
(:17) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep left to 19-D.Samuel [91-K.Turner]. PENALTY on LA-1-D.Kendrick, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at LA 20 - No Play.
Swing −11.6 for RamsExpected points −2.14 for RamsThe model had Rams 30 points higher than the market did.play 79
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:17LA +12% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete deep left to 19-D.Samuel [91-K.Turner]. PENALTY on LA-1-D.Kendrick, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at LA 20 - No Play.
3rd · 1:26LA +10% win prob(1:26) 4-J.Moody 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
2nd · 9:55LA +8% win prob(9:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:46LA +7% win prob(3:46) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-P.Nacua to SF 23 for 13 yards (29-T.Hufanga).
2nd · 1:45LA +6% win prob(1:45) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 19-D.Samuel to SF 48 for 23 yards (53-E.Jones).
2nd · 1:50LA +6% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:58
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Moody's 57-yard field goal with 1:26 left in the 3rd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
4th7:18Brett Maher·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+327–20
4th3:02Jake Moody·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+330–20
4th0:04Brett Maher·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+330–23
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryRams
49ers5–3Rams
365Total yards386
6.8Yards per play5.0
48%Success rate47%
20%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays2
19First downs26
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers2
The read
49ers ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.1449ers: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.04Rams: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.1349ers: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.10Rams: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.1549ers: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.14Rams: +0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 54 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Rams’s 77 at 77%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 5, Rams 4.
NoteRams outgained 49ers 386-365 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LA's early-down pass rate, 77.0%, sat 23.6 points above their season number of 53.4% — they passed early by 2.1 times their own 11.5-point weekly swing.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 1.
61 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 59 dropbacks
Rams11.5%
right on their number · −1.9 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
NoteLA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.0%, 23.6 points above their season mean of 53.4% and 2.1 times their own 11.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Jake Moody+13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:26) 4-J.Moody 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Q3 1:26 · 49ers · 4th & 7 at LA 39 · gained nothing · +2.27 EP · +13.4% win probability
166 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 88 yards from the LA 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
44%
Yards
751
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR74-0.0473%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.1354%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20-0.0250%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
49ers6Rams0
49ers7Rams0
Touchdown14 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Rams 14
49ers7Rams3
Field goal14 plays, from the Rams 25 to the 49ers 25
The period ended5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 36
2nd quarter51 plays
49ers10Rams3
Field goal4 plays, from the Rams 13 to the Rams 9
49ers10Rams9
49ers10Rams10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 40 to the 49ers 6
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Rams 45
49ers10Rams16
49ers10Rams17
Touchdown17 plays, from the Rams 12 to the 49ers 4
49ers16Rams17
49ers17Rams17
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Rams 1
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Rams 21 to the 49ers 49
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 18 to the 49ers 21
Intercepted8 plays, from the Rams 28 to the 49ers 25
49ers20Rams17
Field goal6 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the Rams 39
Punt5 plays
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter62 plays
49ers26Rams17
49ers27Rams17
Touchdown7 plays, from the 49ers 29 to the Rams 11
49ers27Rams20
Field goal15 plays, from the Rams 25 to the 49ers 19
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 33
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 25
49ers30Rams20
Field goal5 plays, from the Rams 15 to the Rams 8
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 39
The period ended8 plays, from the Rams 38 to the Rams 32
49ers30Rams23
Field goal12 plays, from the Rams 30 to the 49ers 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -7.5
Closing total
45
49ers moneyline
-340
Rams moneyline
+270
49ers closed -7.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 45; the game landed 53 — over by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
49ers 7 days · Rams 7 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Sean McVay
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
SF +6% win prob
(4:58) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 12-V.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Lenoir at LA 36. 2-D.Lenoir ran ob at LA 15 for 21 yards (65-C.Shelton).
3rd · 6:43LA +6% win prob(6:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-P.Nacua to SF 36 for 14 yards (2-D.Lenoir).
