2023 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 17, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High

Washington CommandersWinner

Denver Broncos

DEN -4 upsetO 38.5 ✓Broncos closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Washington Commanders 35–33 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:00, WAS +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:00WAS 35 — DEN 33DEN ballWAS 74%

TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-R.Wilson pass to 14-C.Sutton is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:00WAS +26% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-R.Wilson pass to 14-C.Sutton is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q4 · 0:03DEN +25% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 89-B.Johnson for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-C.Barton].
Q4 · 15:00DEN +16% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 24-A.Gibson to DEN 14 for 36 yards (31-J.Simmons).
Q3 · 11:53DEN +12% win prob(11:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:19DEN Touchdown
(6:19) 38-J.McLaughlin left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 0 — DEN 7
Q1 · 0:28WAS Field goal
(:28) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: WAS 3 — DEN 7
Q1 · 0:20DEN Touchdown
(:20) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 19-M.Mims for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 3 — DEN 14
Q2 · 9:07DEN Touchdown
(9:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 89-B.Johnson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 3 — DEN 21
Q2 · 1:52WAS Touchdown
(1:52) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 82-L.Thomas for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-82-L.Thomas was injured during the play. PENALTY on DEN-22-K.Jackson, Disqualification, 1 yard, enforced between downs. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: WAS 11 — DEN 21
Q2 · 0:02WAS Field goal
(:02) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: WAS 14 — DEN 21
Q3 · 11:53WAS Touchdown
(11:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 21 — DEN 21
Q3 · 2:14DEN Field goal
(2:14) 16-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: WAS 21 — DEN 24
Q4 · 13:29WAS Touchdown
(13:29) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 28 — DEN 24
Q4 · 7:18WAS Touchdown
(7:18) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 35 — DEN 24
Q4 · 1:53DEN Field goal
(1:53) 16-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: WAS 35 — DEN 27
Q4 · 0:03DEN Touchdown
(:03) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 89-B.Johnson for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-C.Barton].
Score after this play: WAS 35 — DEN 33

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Broncos
Offensive plays	67	62
Total yards	390	399 (edge)
Yards per play	5.8	6.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.20 (edge)	0.13
Success rate	48% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	67%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.21 (edge)	0.12
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19 (edge)	0.16
Third downs	3/10	4/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	8
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	4 (edge)	7
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Broncos outgained Commanders 399–390 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

18/32, 308 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

2.4 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Sam HowellQB

27/39, 299 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.2 expected points added · +8.9% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

18 att, 87 yds, 2 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

6 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

6.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Brandon JohnsonWR

2/3 for 66 yds, 2 TD

11% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

5/7 for 66 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · -1.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 25	10	45	4:41	Missed field goal
2	DEN	DEN 39	8	61	4:05	Touchdown +7
3	WAS	WAS 25	12	45	5:50	Field goal +3
4	DEN	DEN 25	3	60	0:12	Touchdown +7
5	WAS	WAS 25	5	-1	1:10	Punt
6	DEN	DEN 10	10	90	5:01	Touchdown +7
7	WAS	WAS 25	5	1	1:04	Punt
8	DEN	WAS 40	2	4	1:23	Fumble
9	WAS	DEN 49	10	46	4:47	Touchdown +8
10	DEN	DEN 25	5	8	0:27	Punt
11	WAS	WAS 23	8	56	1:20	Field goal +3
12	DEN	DEN 25	5	-11	1:12	Punt
13	WAS	WAS 43	6	57	2:01	Touchdown +7
14	DEN	DEN 25	6	11	1:22	Interception
15	WAS	DEN 44	5	3	2:53	Missed field goal
16	DEN	DEN 49	9	38	5:21	Field goal +3
17	WAS	WAS 25	8	78	3:46	Touchdown +7
18	DEN	DEN 25	5	1	1:03	Punt
19	WAS	WAS 36	9	59	5:11	Touchdown +7
20	DEN	DEN 25	16	45	5:21	Field goal +3
21	WAS	WAS 43	5	1	1:02	Punt
22	DEN	DEN 13	8	92	0:48	Touchdown +6

12 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 92 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Howell	27/39	299	2	0	4	7.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Brian Robinson	18	87	4.8	2	2.3
Sam Howell	2	13	6.5	0	2.1
Curtis Samuel	1	13	13.0	0	1.5
Antonio Gibson	2	9	4.5	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	5	6	54	1	18%	1.7
John Bates	3	5	46	0	15%	0.2
Antonio Gibson	3	3	44	0	9%	3.4
Brian Robinson	2	3	42	0	9%	3.0
Dyami Brown	3	3	25	0	9%	2.1
Logan Thomas	2	3	22	1	9%	5.1
Jahan Dotson	3	5	22	0	15%	0.2
Cole Turner	2	2	21	0	6%	1.5
Curtis Samuel	3	3	19	0	9%	-0.2
Byron Pringle	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kamren Curl	4	5	0.0	0	0
Cody Barton	3	6	0.0	0	0
Kendall Fuller	2	2	0.0	0	1
Daron Payne	4	0	1.0	0	1
Montez Sweat	2	2	1.5	0	0
Chase Young	2	1	1.5	0	0
Jamin Davis	2	1	1.0	0	0
Benjamin St-Juste	1	2	0.0	0	0
Darrick Forrest	2	1	0.0	0	0
Emmanuel Forbes	3	0	0.0	1	2

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	18/32	308	3	1	7	2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Russell Wilson	6	56	9.3	0	6.5
Javonte Williams	12	44	3.7	0	-1.9
Marvin Mims	2	10	5.0	0	0.0
Jaleel McLaughlin	1	5	5.0	1	1.3
Samaje Perine	1	4	4.0	0	-0.0
Michael Burton	1	3	3.0	0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marvin Mims	2	2	113	1	7%	9.4
Brandon Johnson	2	3	66	2	11%	9.3
Courtland Sutton	5	7	66	0	26%	-1.4
Jerry Jeudy	3	5	25	0	19%	-0.1
Samaje Perine	3	4	20	0	15%	0.7
Javonte Williams	2	3	14	0	11%	1.5
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	1	2	4	0	7%	-0.6
Adam Trautman	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Justin Simmons	7	3	0.0	0
Jonathon Cooper	3	5	2.0	0
Josey Jewell	5	2	0.0	1
Damarri Mathis	6	0	0.0	0
Jonathan Harris	1	3	0.0	0
Alex Singleton	3	1	0.0	0
Randy Gregory	2	2	1.0	1
Essang Bassey	2	1	0.0	0
Patrick Surtain	3	0	0.0	0
Kareem Jackson	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -4
Closing total: 38.5
WAS moneyline: +164
DEN moneyline: -198

Broncos closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 38.5; the game landed 68 — over by 29.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: WAS 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Sean Payton