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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:43 AM ET · 16 to play
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Commanders175 of 189 plays carry both curves
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-R.Wilson pass to 14-C.Sutton is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Swing −25.8 for BroncosExpected points −0.95 for BroncosModel and market agree here.play 188
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:00WAS +26% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-R.Wilson pass to 14-C.Sutton is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
4th · 0:03DEN +25% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 89-B.Johnson for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-C.Barton].
4th · 15:00DEN +16% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 24-A.Gibson to DEN 14 for 36 yards (31-J.Simmons).
3rd · 11:53DEN +12% win prob(11:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:19WAS +11% win prob(8:19) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell sacked at DEN 35 for -11 yards (0-J.Cooper). FUMBLES (0-J.Cooper), recovered by WAS-71-A.Wylie at DEN 41.
3rd · 10:33WAS +9% win prob(10:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Forbes at DEN 47. 13-E.Forbes to DEN 44 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at DEN 44. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brian Robinson's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 13:29 left in the 4th put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
4th1:53Wil Lutz·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+335–27
4th0:03Brandon Johnson·50-yd TD catch50-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson · two-point no good+635–33
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryBroncos
Commanders6–3Broncos
390Total yards399
5.8Yards per play6.4
48%Success rate45%
30%Third-down rate33%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
11Explosive plays8
23First downs19
4Sacks taken7
0Turnovers2
The read
Commanders ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.20Commanders: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.13Broncos: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Commanders: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.12Broncos: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.19Commanders: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.16Broncos: +0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 67 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Broncos’s 62 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 4, Broncos 6.
NoteBroncos outgained Commanders 399-390 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
WAS's sack or hit rate, 31.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 6.0 points clear of the next team along.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 1 against 50.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 24 pts
off script — got home · +18.4 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+2.09× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Broncos20.0%
inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteWAS's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 31.0%, 18.4 points above their season mean of 12.6% and 2.1 times their own 8.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass−27% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-R.Wilson pass to 14-C.Sutton is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q4 0:00 · Broncos · — at WAS 2 · gained nothing · -0.95 EP · −27.1% win probability
174 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 184. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 92 yards from the DEN 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
43%
Yards
789
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.1773%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.1164%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.2447%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0964%
Broncos1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR6+1.0183%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.2833%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.4560%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
No good10 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Broncos 25
Commanders0Broncos6
Commanders0Broncos7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 39 to the Commanders 5
Commanders3Broncos7
Field goal13 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Broncos 22
Commanders3Broncos13
Commanders3Broncos14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 40
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt3 plays
Commanders3Broncos20
Commanders3Broncos21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Broncos 10 to the Commanders 16
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 26
The period ended4 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Commanders 35
Commanders9Broncos21
Commanders11Broncos21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Broncos 49 to the Broncos 4
The period ended7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 33
Commanders14Broncos21
Field goal10 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Broncos 31
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Commanders20Broncos21
Commanders21Broncos21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Commanders 43 to the Broncos 30
Intercepted6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 36
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
No good5 plays, from the Broncos 44 to the Broncos 24
Commanders21Broncos24
Field goal9 plays, from the Broncos 49 to the Commanders 10
The period ended7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Broncos 46
4th quarter57 plays
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Commanders27Broncos24
Commanders28Broncos24
Touchdown4 plays, from midfield to the Broncos 2
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 31
Commanders34Broncos24
Commanders35Broncos24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Commanders 36 to the Broncos 15
Commanders35Broncos27
Field goal18 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Commanders 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Commanders 43 to the Commanders 45
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.5 seconds
Commanders35Broncos33
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Touchdown10 plays, from the Broncos 13 to midfield
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
