2023 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 24, 2023 · Ford Field

Atlanta Falcons

Detroit LionsWinner

DET -3 ✓U 47.5 ✓DomeLions closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.

Detroit Lions 20–6. Biggest swing: Q2 10:12, DET +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 10:12ATL 3 — DET 9DET ball · 1st & 10DET 65%

(10:12) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 87-S.LaPorta for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 10:12DET +13% win prob(10:12) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 87-S.LaPorta for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell].
Q2 · 11:37DET +12% win prob(11:37) 6-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q2 · 10:45DET +7% win prob(10:45) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown pushed ob at DET 46 for 19 yards (3-J.Bates).
Q1 · 11:07DET +6% win prob(11:07) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep left to 5-D.London to ATL 43 for 28 yards (1-C.Sutton).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 1:50DET Field goal
(1:50) 36-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: ATL 0 — DET 3
Q2 · 11:37ATL Field goal
(11:37) 6-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 3 — DET 3
Q2 · 10:12DET Touchdown
(10:12) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 87-S.LaPorta for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell]. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 3 — DET 10
Q2 · 1:56DET Field goal
(1:56) 36-R.Patterson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: ATL 3 — DET 13
Q4 · 9:54DET Touchdown
(9:54) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 3 — DET 20
Q4 · 4:22ATL Field goal
(4:22) 6-Y.Koo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 6 — DET 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Lions
Offensive plays	65	61
Total yards	183	361 (edge)
Yards per play	2.8	5.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.34	-0.02 (edge)
Success rate	31%	39% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.33	0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.35	-0.13 (edge)
Third downs	4/14	4/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	7	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

22/33, 243 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.7 expected points added · +3.3% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Desmond RidderQB

21/38, 201 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-14.7 expected points added · -14.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

17 att, 80 yds, 0 TD

-3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

10 att, 33 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

9/12 for 102 yds, 0 TD

39% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Sam LaPortaTE

8/11 for 84 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 21	5	8	1:37	Punt
2	DET	DET 14	4	4	1:33	Punt
3	ATL	ATL 12	7	13	3:33	Punt
4	DET	DET 34	11	63	6:31	Field goal +3
5	ATL	ATL 25	11	45	5:14	Field goal +3
6	DET	DET 25	7	70	1:27	Touchdown +7
7	ATL	ATL 25	5	1	1:03	Punt
8	DET	DET 27	13	73	7:09	Field goal +3
9	ATL	ATL 25	5	-4	1:02	Punt
10	DET	DET 17	5	20	0:32	Punt
11	ATL	ATL 20	4	21	0:19	End of half
12	DET	DET 25	5	9	2:01	Punt
13	ATL	ATL 19	8	38	4:34	Missed field goal
14	DET	DET 37	7	31	3:08	Punt
15	ATL	ATL 17	5	4	1:38	Punt
16	DET	DET 25	4	13	1:49	Punt
17	ATL	ATL 35	4	-7	0:56	Punt
18	DET	DET 18	3	0	0:54	Interception
19	ATL	DET 43	4	6	1:18	Turnover on downs
20	DET	DET 38	8	62	3:52	Touchdown +7
21	ATL	ATL 18	18	70	5:31	Field goal +3
22	DET	DET 25	7	16	2:02	Punt
23	ATL	ATL 8	3	-12	0:18	Fumble
24	DET	ATL 11	3	0	1:59	End of game

6 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 73 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Desmond Ridder	21/38	201	0	0	7	-14.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Bijan Robinson	10	33	3.3	-1.8
Tyler Allgeier	7	12	1.7	-2.6
Desmond Ridder	2	3	1.5	-1.1
Kyle Pitts	1	-4	-4.0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Kyle Pitts	5	9	41	24%	-0.3
Jonnu Smith	5	8	37	21%	-0.8
Drake London	2	6	31	16%	-3.1
Bijan Robinson	4	6	27	16%	-0.2
Mack Hollins	1	4	23	11%	-0.2
Tyler Allgeier	2	3	17	8%	-0.7
KhaDarel Hodge	1	1	15	3%	1.9
MyCole Pruitt	1	1	10	3%	1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Jessie Bates	5	5	1	1
Kaden Elliss	4	5	0	0
Troy Andersen	4	5	0	0
Richie Grant	1	4	0	0
Tre Flowers	3	0	0	1
A.J. Terrell	2	1	0	0
Grady Jarrett	1	2	0	0
Calais Campbell	1	2	0	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	1	1	0	0
Dee Alford	1	1	0	1

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	22/33	243	1	1	0	2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jahmyr Gibbs	17	80	4.7	0	-3.1
Craig Reynolds	4	15	3.8	0	0.5
Zonovan Knight	3	13	4.3	0	-0.2
Amon-Ra St. Brown	1	4	4.0	0	-1.2
Jared Goff	5	3	0.6	1	-2.0
Jason Cabinda	1	0	0.0	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown	9	12	102	0	39%	1.5
Sam LaPorta	8	11	84	1	35%	0.1
Kalif Raymond	4	6	55	0	19%	2.6
Jahmyr Gibbs	1	2	2	0	6%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Brian Branch	9	0	0.0	2
Alex Anzalone	3	3	0.0	0
Jack Campbell	3	3	1.0	0
Jerry Jacobs	5	0	0.0	0
Tracy Walker III	2	2	0.0	1
Aidan Hutchinson	3	1	2.0	2
Cameron Sutton	2	1	0.0	0
Alim McNeill	2	1	1.0	0
Ifeatu Melifonwu	3	0	0.0	1
Benito Jones	1	1	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DET -3
Closing total: 47.5
ATL moneyline: +140
DET moneyline: -166

Lions closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 26 — under by 21.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: ATL 7 days · DET 7 days
Coaches: Arthur Smith vs Dan Campbell