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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:23 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Falcons167 of 179 plays carry both curves
(10:12) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 87-S.LaPorta for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell].
Swing +13.2 for LionsExpected points +3.76 for LionsModel and market agree here.play 48
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 10:12DET +13% win prob(10:12) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 87-S.LaPorta for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell].
2nd · 11:37DET +12% win prob(11:37) 6-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
2nd · 10:45DET +7% win prob(10:45) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown pushed ob at DET 46 for 19 yards (3-J.Bates).
1st · 11:07DET +6% win prob(11:07) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep left to 5-D.London to ATL 43 for 28 yards (1-C.Sutton).
1st · 9:07ATL +6% win prob(9:07) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder sacked at ATL 25 for -12 yards (55-D.Barnes).
1st · 7:48ATL +5% win prob(7:48) (No Huddle) 26-J.Gibbs left end to 50 for 5 yards (27-R.Grant). PENALTY on DET-67-M.Nelson, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at DET 45 - No Play.
2nd · 14:21
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Sam LaPorta's 45-yard touchdown catch with 10:12 left in the 2nd put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:50Riley Patterson·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+30–3
2nd11:37Younghoe Koo·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+33–3
2nd10:12Sam LaPorta·45-yd TD catch45-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared GoffLead never changed again+73–10
2nd1:56Riley Patterson·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+33–13
4th4:22Younghoe Koo·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+36–20
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryLions
Falcons0–8Lions
183Total yards361
2.8Yards per play5.9
31%Success rate39%
29%Third-down rate31%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays6
12First downs16
7Sacks taken0
1Turnovers1
The read
Lions ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.34Falcons: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.02Lions: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.33Falcons: −0.33 expected points added per play
+0.08Lions: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.35Falcons: −0.35 expected points added per play
−0.13Lions: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 65 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Lions’s 61 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 1, Lions 5.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's early-down pass rate turned over: 43.1% in week 2 against 66.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.5 points.
DET's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.3% in week 2 against 19.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +10.7 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+1.21× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Lions19.6%
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteATL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 66.0%, 16.6 points above their season mean of 49.4% and 1.7 times their own 9.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
65Matthew BergeronG · Every snap100%67 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%67 snaps
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%67 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%67 snaps
9Desmond RidderQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
67Drew DalmanC · Every snap100%67 snaps
5Drake LondonWR · Full-time93%62 snaps
7Bijan RobinsonRB · Full-time81%54 snaps
8Kyle PittsTE · Heavy rotation78%52 snaps
18Mack HollinsWR · Heavy rotation72%48 snaps
81Jonnu SmithTE · Heavy rotation72%48 snaps
25Tyler AllgeierRB · Rotational30%20 snaps
85MyCole PruittTE · Rotational27%18 snaps
12KhaDarel HodgeWR · Situational19%13 snaps
40Keith SmithFB · Situational15%10 snaps
16Scott MillerWR · Situational15%10 snaps
Inactive · 7
Clark PhillipsCBJoe GazianoDEAlbert HugginsDTJovaughn GwynGLogan WoodsideQBCordarrelle PattersonRBIsaiah PrinceT
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass+12% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(10:12) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 87-S.LaPorta for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-C.Campbell].
Q2 10:12 · Lions · 1st & 10 at ATL 45 · gained 45 · +3.76 EP · +11.6% win probability
165 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 76 yards from the ATL 18 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.18
Success rate
32%
Yards
541
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.1048%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR35-0.3780%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.6340%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR10+0.2160%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.4370%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.1767%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.4860%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Lions0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the Falcons 29
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 14 to the Lions 18
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 12 to the Falcons 45
Falcons0Lions3
Field goal12 plays, from the Lions 34 to the Falcons 18
The period ended5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 38
2nd quarter53 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Falcons3Lions3
Field goal7 plays, from the Falcons 48 to the Lions 26
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Falcons3Lions9
Falcons3Lions10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Falcons 45
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 26
Falcons3Lions13
Field goal16 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Falcons 4
Punt6 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 17 to the Lions 37
The period ended6 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Falcons 46
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 34
No good8 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Lions 28
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 37 to the Falcons 42
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Falcons 29
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 28
Punt4 plays
Intercepted3 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Lions 43 to the Lions 37
Falcons3Lions19
Falcons3Lions20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 38 to the Falcons 3
Falcons6Lions20
Field goal20 plays, from the Falcons 18 to the Lions 6
The period ended12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 41
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Falcons 8 to the Falcons 26
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
