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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 24, 2023 · FedExField
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 3
It turned at Q1 11:41, 3rd and 8, on Stefon Diggs — 9.1 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 37–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:41, Bills +9.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:41 · 3rd and 8
Stefon Diggs
Bills
(11:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs to WAS 30 for 30 yards (13-E.Forbes) [90-M.Sweat].
9.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.60 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.35 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.77 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bills won this one — 1 giveaway, against Commanders at 5 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 9 of 15 on third down, against Commanders at 1 of 9 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(11:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs to WAS 30 for 30 yards (13-E.Forbes) [90-M.Sweat].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tyler Bass's 36-yard field goal with 9:32 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Tyler Bass36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.FergusonLead never changed again+33–08 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Billscategory by categoryCommanders
Bills ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.77 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 63 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Commanders’s 51 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Bills 5, Commanders 2.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.60.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
BUF's sack or hit rate, 35.9%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 2.6 points clear of the next team along.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points. · +2.5σ from their own normal
WAS's sack or hit rate, 2.9%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 0.7 points clear of the next team along.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Bills-2.3 ptsright on their number · −2.6 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 63 snaps
Commanders10.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 5.4 pts, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 51 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 19% to 93%
Tendencies room →Bills48.9%right on their number · −6.9 vs their 55.8%, and they swing ±14.5 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 47 early downs
Commanders73.2%inside their normal wobble · +8.6 vs their 64.6%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 46%
Tendencies room →Bills25.7%inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 20.1%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Commanders12.8%inside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -65% to 161%
Fourth Down room →Bills—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 48.3%.
Commanders—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 35.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 56%
Tendencies room →Bills15.4%inside their normal wobble · −8.4 vs their 23.8%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Commanders17.1%leaned — sat back · −11.3 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 39%
Tendencies room →Bills35.9%off script — got home · +18.7 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+2.50× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Commanders2.9%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.7 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
BUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 35.9%, 18.7 points above their season mean of 17.2% and 2.5 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
20/32, 218 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
5.2 expected points added · -3.1% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
19/29, 170 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT
-26.5 expected points added · +0.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Terry McLaurin banked 1.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 21.3 | +1.2 | 84% | — | 0% | — | 20/32, 218 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 46 yd, 1 TD |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.1 | −0.9 | 66% | 91% | 38% | 40% | 8/12, 111 yd |
| James CookRB · Committee Back | 13.2 | −1.3 | 62% | 63% | 9% | 1% | 15 car, 98 yd · 2/3, 14 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 10.3 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Featured Receiver | 10.1 | +1.8 | 81% | 77% | 21% | 20% | 6/6, 41 yd |
| Latavius MurrayRB | 9.1 | +1.5 | 25% | 31% | 3% | 0% | 5 car, 15 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Cole TurnerTE · Featured Receiver | 7.5 | −10.4 | 57% | 56% | 24% | 25% | 4/7, 35 yd |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.4 | +0.9 | 74% | 79% | 14% | 31% | 2/4, 54 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 7.0 | −1.6 | 37% | 23% | 0% | — | 10 car, 70 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | −1.8 | 94% | 97% | 14% | 13% | 2/4, 21 yd |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | −1.4 | 46% | 20% | 9% | 8% | 2/3, 18 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB · Receiving Back | 3.4 | −4.5 | 61% | 77% | 17% | 0% | 2 car, 17 yd · 3/5, 7 yd |
| Deonte HartyWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −3.9 | 19% | 26% | 9% | 5% | 2 car, -2 yd · 2/3, 15 yd |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +0.5 | 57% | 51% | 7% | 5% | 2/2, 12 yd |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −0.5 | 51% | 69% | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 3 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −6.8 | 60% | 77% | 9% | 12% | 1/3, 11 yd |
| Damien HarrisRB | 1.5 | −1.4 | 13% | 6% | 0% | — | 5 car, 15 yd |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.3 | 24% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Sam HowellQB · Starter QB | 0.6 | −14.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/29, 170 yd, 4 INT · 1 car, 18 yd |
| Reggie GilliamRB | 0.0 | — | 15% | 3% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.2 | 22% | 26% | 3% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kyle AllenQB | -0.2 | 0.0 | 16% | — | 0% | — | 2 car, -2 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs to WAS 30 for 30 yards (13-E.Forbes) [90-M.Sweat].
Q1 11:41 · Bills · 3rd & 8 at BUF 40 · gained 30 · +3.43 EP · +12.7% win probability
145 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 156 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 145 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 73 yards from the WAS 25 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
Bills3
Commanders0Bills9Commanders0Bills10Commanders0Bills13Commanders0Bills16Commanders0Bills22Commanders0Bills23Commanders0Bills29Commanders0Bills30Commanders0Bills36Commanders0Bills37Commanders0Bills37Commanders3Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bills at Commanders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 20/32 | 218 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +5.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 15 | 98 | 6.5 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Josh Allen | 3 | 46 | 15.3 | 1 | +7.1 |
| Latavius Murray |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 8 | 12 | 111 | 0 | 38% | +3.0 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrel Bernard | 5 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 | 1 |
| DaQuan Jones | 1 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 19/29 | 170 | 0 | 4 | 9 | −26.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_03_BUF_WAS
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 34.
Total closed 44; the game landed 40 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
| 5 |
| 15 |
| 3.0 |
| 1 |
| +2.8 |
| Damien Harris | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Deonte Harty | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Kyle Allen | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| +1.6 |
| Trent Sherfield | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 9% | +0.7 |
| Deonte Harty | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 9% | −0.3 |
| James Cook | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 9% | +0.2 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 9% | −0.7 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +1.1 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6% | −1.4 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Benford | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'Davious White | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ed Oliver | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Floyd | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Hyde | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Brian Robinson | 10 | 70 | 7.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Sam Howell | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 4 | 54 | 0 | 14% | −1.0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 21% | +2.2 |
| Cole Turner | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 | 24% | −2.4 |
| Jahan Dotson | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 14% | −7.1 |
| John Bates | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 7% | +0.2 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 17% | −9.8 |
| Dyami Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Barton | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Fuller | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Jamin Davis | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Benjamin St-Juste | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kamren Curl | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrick Forrest | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Young | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Forbes | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Percy Butler | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daron Payne | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
