2023 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 24, 2023 · FedExField

Buffalo BillsWinner

Washington Commanders

BUF -5.5 ✓U 44 ✓Bills closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 34.

Buffalo Bills 37–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:41, WAS +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 11:41BUF 0 — WAS 0BUF ball · 3rd & 8BUF 67%

(11:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs to WAS 30 for 30 yards (13-E.Forbes) [90-M.Sweat].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 11:41WAS +9% win prob(11:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs to WAS 30 for 30 yards (13-E.Forbes) [90-M.Sweat].
Q1 · 0:47WAS +7% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 6:52WAS +6% win prob(6:52) 14-S.Howell pass deep right to 85-C.Turner to BUF 25 for 21 yards (21-J.Poyer).
Q1 · 4:45BUF +5% win prob(4:45) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep middle intended for 2-D.Brown INTERCEPTED by 43-T.Bernard at BUF 16. 43-T.Bernard to BUF 16 for no gain (2-D.Brown).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:32BUF Field goal
(9:32) 2-T.Bass 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 3 — WAS 0
Q1 · 0:47BUF Touchdown
(:47) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 10 — WAS 0
Q2 · 2:00BUF Field goal
(2:00) 2-T.Bass 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 13 — WAS 0
Q2 · 0:22BUF Field goal
(:22) 2-T.Bass 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 16 — WAS 0
Q4 · 10:43BUF Touchdown
(10:43) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 23 — WAS 0
Q4 · 10:12BUF Touchdown
(10:12) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left intended for 1-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 57-A.Epenesa at WAS 32. 57-A.Epenesa for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 30 — WAS 0
Q4 · 2:19BUF Touchdown
(2:19) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 37 — WAS 0
Q4 · 0:50WAS Field goal
(:50) 6-J.Slye 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: BUF 37 — WAS 3

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Commanders
Offensive plays	63	51
Total yards	388 (edge)	230
Yards per play	6.2 (edge)	4.5
Expected points added / play	0.22 (edge)	-0.60
Success rate	44% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	56%	76%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.35 (edge)	-0.77
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.03
Third downs	9/15 (edge)	1/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	9
Turnovers	1 (edge)	5

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.60.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

20/32, 218 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

5.2 expected points added · -3.1% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Sam HowellQB

19/29, 170 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT

-26.5 expected points added · +0.0% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

15 att, 98 yds, 0 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

10 att, 70 yds, 0 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

8/12 for 111 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 3.0 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Curtis SamuelWR

2/4 for 54 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · -1.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 25	12	57	5:31	Field goal +3
2	WAS	WAS 27	9	39	4:50	Interception
3	BUF	BUF 16	7	14	2:12	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 20	4	-9	1:40	Punt
5	BUF	WAS 35	2	35	0:06	Touchdown +7
6	WAS	WAS 25	8	68	3:59	Turnover on downs
7	BUF	BUF 2	15	87	9:47	Field goal +3
8	WAS	WAS 25	4	9	0:40	Interception
9	BUF	WAS 33	6	19	0:56	Field goal +3
10	WAS	WAS 25	2	10	0:19	End of half
11	WAS	WAS 17	11	63	5:49	Interception
12	BUF	BUF 1	6	49	2:44	Interception
13	WAS	WAS 19	6	11	3:59	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 31	6	32	3:12	Turnover on downs
15	WAS	WAS 37	1	-2	0:11	Fumble
16	BUF	WAS 31	7	31	3:28	Touchdown +7
17	WAS	WAS 25	4	5	0:36	Defensive touchdown
18	WAS	WAS 25	5	-6	1:49	Punt
19	BUF	BUF 36	10	64	5:57	Touchdown +7
20	WAS	WAS 25	9	42	1:29	Field goal +3
21	BUF	BUF 25	3	0	0:46	End of game

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 87 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	20/32	218	1	1	0	5.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	15	98	6.5	0	2.2
Josh Allen	3	46	15.3	1	7.1
Latavius Murray	5	15	3.0	1	2.8
Damien Harris	5	15	3.0	0	-1.4
Gabe Davis	1	-2	-2.0	0	-0.9
Deonte Harty	2	-2	-1.0	0	-1.4
Kyle Allen	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	8	12	111	0	38%	3.0
Gabe Davis	1	4	35	1	13%	1.6
Trent Sherfield	2	3	18	0	9%	0.7
Deonte Harty	2	3	15	0	9%	-0.3
James Cook	2	3	14	0	9%	0.2
Dawson Knox	1	3	11	0	9%	-0.7
Latavius Murray	1	1	6	0	3%	0.9
Khalil Shakir	1	1	5	0	3%	1.1
Dalton Kincaid	2	2	3	0	6%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Terrel Bernard	5	2	2.0	1	1
DaQuan Jones	1	4	1.5	0	0
Matt Milano	1	4	0.0	0	0
Taron Johnson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jordan Poyer	4	0	0.0	0	0
Christian Benford	2	2	0.0	0	0
Tre'Davious White	3	0	0.0	1	1
Ed Oliver	1	2	1.5	0	0
Leonard Floyd	2	1	2.0	0	0
Micah Hyde	1	1	0.0	1	1

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Howell	19/29	170	0	4	9	-26.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Brian Robinson	10	70	7.0	-0.8
Sam Howell	1	18	18.0	1.0
Antonio Gibson	2	17	8.5	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Curtis Samuel	2	4	54	14%	-1.0
Terry McLaurin	6	6	41	21%	2.2
Cole Turner	4	7	35	24%	-2.4
Jahan Dotson	2	4	21	14%	-7.1
John Bates	2	2	12	7%	0.2
Antonio Gibson	3	5	7	17%	-9.8
Dyami Brown	0	1	0	3%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Cody Barton	5	6	0	0
Kendall Fuller	2	6	1	3
Jamin Davis	2	5	0	1
Benjamin St-Juste	5	2	0	1
Kamren Curl	4	2	0	0
Darrick Forrest	2	2	0	0
Chase Young	3	0	0	0
Emmanuel Forbes	3	0	0	0
Percy Butler	1	1	0	1
Daron Payne	2	0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -5.5
Closing total: 44
BUF moneyline: -245
WAS moneyline: +200

Bills closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 34.

Total closed 44; the game landed 40 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 65°F, wind 1 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: BUF 7 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Ron Rivera