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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Bills147 of 156 plays carry both curves
(11:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs to WAS 30 for 30 yards (13-E.Forbes) [90-M.Sweat].
Swing −9.1 for CommandersExpected points −3.43 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 27 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:41WAS +9% win prob(11:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs to WAS 30 for 30 yards (13-E.Forbes) [90-M.Sweat].
1st · 0:47WAS +7% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:52WAS +6% win prob(6:52) 14-S.Howell pass deep right to 85-C.Turner to BUF 25 for 21 yards (21-J.Poyer).
1st · 4:45BUF +5% win prob(4:45) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep middle intended for 2-D.Brown INTERCEPTED by 43-T.Bernard at BUF 16. 43-T.Bernard to BUF 16 for no gain (2-D.Brown).
1st · 1:45BUF +5% win prob(1:45) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell sacked at WAS 11 for -10 yards (43-T.Bernard).
1st · 13:41WAS +5% win prob(13:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle to BUF 38 for 13 yards (22-D.Forrest).
2nd · 1:19
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Bass's 36-yard field goal with 9:32 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:32Tyler Bass·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.FergusonLead never changed again+33–0
4th0:50Joey Slye·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.Cheeseman+337–3
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryCommanders
Bills9–0Commanders
388Total yards230
6.2Yards per play4.5
44%Success rate39%
60%Third-down rate11%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
10Explosive plays7
20First downs13
0Sacks taken9
1Turnovers5
The read
Bills ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.77 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Bills: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.60Commanders: −0.60 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.35Bills: +0.35 expected points added per play
−0.77Commanders: −0.77 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Bills: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.03Commanders: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 63 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Commanders’s 51 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Bills 5, Commanders 2.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.60.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BUF's sack or hit rate, 35.9%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 2.6 points clear of the next team along.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.7-swing turn from week 2.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
WAS's sack or hit rate, 2.9%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 0.7 points clear of the next team along.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 2.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 25 pts
off script — got home · +18.7 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+2.50× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Commanders2.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.7 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteBUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 35.9%, 18.7 points above their season mean of 17.2% and 2.5 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass+13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs to WAS 30 for 30 yards (13-E.Forbes) [90-M.Sweat].
Q1 11:41 · Bills · 3rd & 8 at BUF 40 · gained 30 · +3.43 EP · +12.7% win probability
145 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 156 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 145 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 73 yards from the WAS 25 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
156 of 156 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
156
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
40%
Yards
616
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.6981%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.4342%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22-0.3073%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.1038%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+1.0457%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.3520%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.9 seconds
Bills3Commanders0
Field goal12 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Commanders 18
Intercepted9 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Bills 25
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 16 to the Bills 30
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 21
Bills9Commanders0
Bills10Commanders0
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter41 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Bills 38 to the Bills 1
Bills13Commanders0
Field goal19 plays, from the Bills 2 to the Commanders 30
Intercepted4 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 34
Bills16Commanders0
Field goal8 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Commanders 14
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter31 plays
Intercepted12 plays, from the Commanders 17 to the Bills 15
Intercepted7 plays, from the Bills 1 to midfield
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 19 to the Commanders 38
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 31 to the Commanders 41
4th quarter46 plays
Turnover on downs2 plays, from the Commanders 38 to the Commanders 37
Fumble lost1 play
Bills22Commanders0
Bills23Commanders0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Commanders 31 to the Commanders 7
Bills29Commanders0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 30
Bills30Commanders0
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 29
Bills36Commanders0
Bills37Commanders0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 36 to the Commanders 2
Bills37Commanders3
Field goal11 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Bills 24
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -5.5
Closing total
44
Bills moneyline
-245
Commanders moneyline
+200
Bills closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 34.
Total closed 44; the game landed 40 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 66°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the south-east; 0.03 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Bills 7 days · Commanders 7 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Ron Rivera
BUF +4% win prob
(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left intended for 24-A.Gibson INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Hyde at WAS 34. 23-M.Hyde to WAS 33 for 1 yard (24-A.Gibson).
1st · 15:00BUF +4% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid to BUF 24 for -1 yards (31-K.Curl).
