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Carolina Panthers 27 at Seattle Seahawks 37. Final.
Seahawks -5 ✓O 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 3
Seattle Seahawks 37, Panthers 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 5:03, 3rd and 10, on D.J. Chark — 20.6 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 5:03 · 3rd and 10
D.J. Chark
Panthers
(5:03) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 17-D.Chark for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Seahawks closed -5 and covered, winning by 10.
Seattle Seahawks 37–27. Biggest swing: Q2 5:03, Panthers +20.6% win probability on one snap.
20.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.JonesPanthersQ2 4:23(4:23) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 40-D.Jones at SEA 28. 40-D.Jones to SEA 28 for no gain (14-D.Metcalf).
9.4pts
Eddy PineiroSeahawksQ3 8:14(8:14) 4-E.Pineiro 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
10.5pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.27 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.18 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 10 of 20 on third down, against Seahawks at 3 of 12 on third down.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Seahawks at 1 giveaway.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Panthers200 of 210 plays carry both curves
(5:03) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 17-D.Chark for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −20.6 for SeahawksExpected points −5.21 for SeahawksThe model had Panthers 9 points higher than the market did.play 69
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 5:03SEA +21% win prob(5:03) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 17-D.Chark for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:14CAR +11% win prob(8:14) 4-E.Pineiro 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
2nd · 4:23CAR +9% win prob(4:23) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 40-D.Jones at SEA 28. 40-D.Jones to SEA 28 for no gain (14-D.Metcalf).
3rd · 0:05SEA +9% win prob(:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 19-A.Thielen to SEA 1 for 25 yards (6-Q.Diggs).
1st · 12:44SEA +8% win prob(12:44) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen ran ob at CAR 48 for 23 yards. PENALTY on SEA-20-J.Love, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 48.
2nd · 1:29SEA +8% win prob(1:29) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf to CAR 19 for 22 yards (24-V.Bell, 21-J.Chinn).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Myers's 39-yard field goal with 9:49 left in the 3rd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:51Eddy Pineiro·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+33–0
1st3:37Jason Myers·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+33–3
2nd12:10Jason Myers·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+33–6
2nd8:48Jason Myers·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+33–9
2nd5:03D.J. Chark·47-yd TD catch47-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+710–9
2nd2:44Eddy Pineiro·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+313–9
2nd0:48Jason Myers·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+313–12
3rd9:49Jason Myers·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.StollLead never changed again+313–15
4th1:45Adam Thielen·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+727–37
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categorySeahawks
Panthers2–7Seahawks
378Total yards431
5.0Yards per play6.3
39%Success rate54%
50%Third-down rate25%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays9
20First downs25
3Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Seahawks ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Panthers: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.21Seahawks: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Panthers: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.16Seahawks: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Panthers: −0.18 expected points added per play
+0.27Seahawks: +0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 75 snaps at a 83% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 68 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 4, Seahawks 7.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CAR's play-action rate, 4.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 0.4 points clear of the next team along.
62 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.3 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Seahawks16.1%
right on their number · +1.5 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 62 dropbacks
NoteCAR's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.9%, 21.0 points above their season mean of 55.0% and 1.9 times their own 11.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
62Chandler ZavalaG · Every snap100%79 snaps
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap100%79 snaps
79Ikem EkwonuT · Every snap100%79 snaps
76Calvin ThrockmortonG · Every snap100%79 snaps
14Andy DaltonQB · Every snap100%79 snaps
56Bradley BozemanC · Every snap100%79 snaps
17D.J. CharkWR · Full-time94%74 snaps
19Adam ThielenWR · Full-time92%73 snaps
6Miles SandersRB · Heavy rotation65%51 snaps
81Hayden HurstTE · Heavy rotation61%48 snaps
88Terrace MarshallWR · Heavy rotation59%47 snaps
30Chuba HubbardRB · Rotational34%27 snaps
15Jonathan MingoWR · Rotational33%26 snaps
82Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational28%22 snaps
80Ian ThomasTE · Situational16%13 snaps
5Laviska ShenaultWR · Situational14%11 snaps
11Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 6
Sam WebbCBD.J. JohnsonOLBBryce YoungQBRaheem BlackshearRBJammie RobinsonSSDavid SharpeT
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Dalton pass+16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:03) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 17-D.Chark for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 5:03 · Panthers · 3rd & 10 at SEA 47 · gained 47 · +5.21 EP · +15.8% win probability
198 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 210 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 198 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 205. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 75 yards from the CAR 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
210 of 210 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
210
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
43%
Yards
805
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR70+0.0486%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.0669%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26+0.4842%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
210 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
210 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 27
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.0 seconds
Panthers3Seahawks0
Field goal13 plays, from the Panthers 21 to the Seahawks 20
Panthers3Seahawks3
Field goal12 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Panthers 25
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 40
The period ended4 plays, from the Seahawks 19 to the Seahawks 44
2nd quarter61 plays
Panthers3Seahawks6
Field goal6 plays, from the Panthers 49 to the Panthers 15
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 29
Panthers3Seahawks9
Field goal6 plays, from the Seahawks 39 to the Panthers 15
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Panthers9Seahawks9
Panthers10Seahawks9
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Seahawks 42
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and four receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted4 plays
Panthers13Seahawks9
Field goal5 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Seahawks 26
Panthers13Seahawks12
Field goal12 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Panthers 19
Punt9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Seahawks 48
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter46 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 31 to the Panthers 32
Panthers13Seahawks15
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 24 to the Panthers 20
No good8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Seahawks 36
Panthers13Seahawks21
Panthers13Seahawks22
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 45 to the Panthers 1
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
The period ended13 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Seahawks 26
4th quarter62 plays
Panthers19Seahawks22
Panthers20Seahawks22
Touchdown2 plays
Panthers20Seahawks28
Panthers20Seahawks29
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Panthers 7
Punt14 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Seahawks 39
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 19 to the Seahawks 27
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Panthers 40
Panthers20Seahawks35
Panthers20Seahawks37
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 27 to the Panthers 2
Panthers26Seahawks37
Panthers27Seahawks37
Touchdown14 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Seahawks 15
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
