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2023 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 24, 2023 · Lumen Field

Carolina Panthers

27

Seattle SeahawksWinner

37

SEA -5 ✓O 42.5 ✓

Seattle Seahawks 37–27. Biggest swing: Q2 5:03, SEA +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SEA ↑CAR ↓
Q2 · 5:03CAR 9 — SEA 9CAR ball · 3rd & 10SEA 76%

(5:03) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 17-D.Chark for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 5:03SEA +21% win prob(5:03) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 17-D.Chark for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q3 · 8:14CAR +11% win prob(8:14) 4-E.Pineiro 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
  3. Q2 · 4:23CAR +9% win prob(4:23) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 40-D.Jones at SEA 28. 40-D.Jones to SEA 28 for no gain (14-D.Metcalf).
  4. Q3 · 0:05SEA +9% win prob(:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 19-A.Thielen to SEA 1 for 25 yards (6-Q.Diggs).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:51CAR Field goal

    (7:51) 4-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: CAR 3 — SEA 0
  2. Q1 · 3:37SEA Field goal

    (3:37) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: CAR 3 — SEA 3
  3. Q2 · 12:10SEA Field goal

    (12:10) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: CAR 3 — SEA 6
  4. Q2 · 8:48SEA Field goal

    (8:48) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: CAR 3 — SEA 9
  5. Q2 · 5:03CAR Touchdown

    (5:03) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 17-D.Chark for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 10 — SEA 9
  6. Q2 · 2:44CAR Field goal

    (2:44) 4-E.Pineiro 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: CAR 13 — SEA 9
  7. Q2 · 0:48SEA Field goal

    (:48) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: CAR 13 — SEA 12
  8. Q3 · 9:49SEA Field goal

    (9:49) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: CAR 13 — SEA 15
  9. Q3 · 3:55SEA Touchdown

    (3:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA-75-A.Bradford was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 13 — SEA 22
  10. Q4 · 15:00CAR Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 6-M.Sanders left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 20 — SEA 22
  11. Q4 · 11:45SEA Touchdown

    (11:45) 9-K.Walker right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 20 — SEA 29
  12. Q4 · 4:22SEA Touchdown

    (4:22) (Shotgun) 79-R.O'Neal reported in as eligible. 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 19-J.Bobo for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-Der.Brown]. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: CAR 20 — SEA 37
  13. Q4 · 1:45CAR Touchdown

    (1:45) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 27 — SEA 37

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPanthersSeahawks
Offensive plays7568
Total yards378431 (edge)
Yards per play5.06.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.050.21 (edge)
Success rate39%54% (edge)
Dropback rate83%57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.090.16 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.180.27 (edge)
Third downs10/20 (edge)3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)79 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2025 (edge)
Sacks taken32 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Andy DaltonQB

34/58, 361 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

4.5 expected points added · -5.5% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

23/36, 296 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

6.3 expected points added · +3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth WalkerRB

18 att, 97 yds, 2 TD

5.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Zach CharbonnetRB

9 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Adam ThielenWR

11/14 for 145 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 13.1 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

DK MetcalfWR

6/8 for 112 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1SEASEA 25501:35Punt
2CARCAR 2111405:38Field goal +3
3SEASEA 2511404:14Field goal +3
4CARCAR 25672:23Punt
5SEASEA 198744:03Field goal +3
6CARCAR 25541:22Punt
7SEASEA 396462:00Field goal +3
8CARCAR 2510853:51Touchdown +7
9SEASEA 254-60:38Interception
10CARSEA 28471:37Field goal +3
11SEASEA 2712541:55Field goal +3
12CARCAR 257270:43Punt
13SEASEA 3100:01End of half
14CARCAR 31511:07Punt
15SEASEA 249504:08Field goal +3
16CARCAR 258381:36Missed field goal
17SEASEA 459754:17Touchdown +7
18CARCAR 2511733:57Touchdown +7
19SEASEA 318623:15Touchdown +7
20CARCAR 2511363:38Punt
21SEASEA 19472:12Punt
22CARCAR 32401:03Turnover on downs
23SEACAR 276290:30Touchdown +8
24CARCAR 2513602:37Touchdown +7
25SEACAR 42401:40End of game

13 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Andy Dalton34/583612034.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Miles Sanders9242.71-1.2
Andy Dalton2115.501.1
Laviska Shenault Jr.273.50-0.5
Chuba Hubbard122.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Adam Thielen1114145125%13.1
D.J. Chark41186119%2.9
Miles Sanders5938016%-1.7
Terrace Marshall5835014%0.7
Jonathan Mingo3621011%-1.6
Tommy Tremble111502%1.2
Hayden Hurst131105%0.5
Ian Thomas11802%-0.5
Chuba Hubbard23205%-1.6
Laviska Shenault Jr.11002%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kamu Grugier-Hill530.000
Sam Franklin230.001
Derrick Brown320.000
Jeremy Chinn230.000
Vonn Bell500.000
DeShawn Williams310.000
Troy Hill220.000
Frankie Luvu300.000
Brian Burns211.000
Yetur Gross-Matos211.000

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Geno Smith23/362961126.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenneth Walker18975.425.4
Zach Charbonnet9465.102.7
DeeJay Dallas273.50-0.3
Geno Smith4-4-1.00-1.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DK Metcalf68112023%6.3
Kenneth Walker335909%3.7
Noah Fant4541014%3.2
Colby Parkinson3438011%2.7
Tyler Lockett3734020%0.2
Jaxon Smith-Njigba131009%-3.7
Jake Bobo12516%1.8
Zach Charbonnet12-106%-1.9
DeeJay Dallas11-203%-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Devon Witherspoon730.002
Jarran Reed532.001
Jordyn Brooks430.000
Michael Jackson500.001
Julian Love410.002
Bobby Wagner220.000
Artie Burns220.001
Jerrick Reed210.000
Quandre Diggs200.000
Uchenna Nwosu200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SEA -5
Closing total
42.5
CAR moneyline
+185
SEA moneyline
-225

Seahawks closed -5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 64 — over by 21.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
61°F, wind 2 mph
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
CAR 6 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches
Frank Reich vs Pete Carroll