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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Bears159 of 165 plays carry both curves
(11:11) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert right guard to CHI 24 for 1 yard (23-D.Tranquill; 22-T.McDuffie).
Swing +3.9 for ChiefsExpected points +0.61 for ChiefsThe model had Bears 31 points higher than the market did.play 12
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:11CHI +4% win prob(11:11) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert right guard to CHI 24 for 1 yard (23-D.Tranquill; 22-T.McDuffie).
1st · 8:54KC +4% win prob(8:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 24-S.Moore to CHI 14 for 21 yards (49-T.Edmunds).
1st · 9:36KC +4% win prob(9:36) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to CHI 35 for 24 yards (9-J.Brisker).
1st · 9:50KC +4% win prob(9:50) 16-T.Gill punts 58 yards to KC 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 12-M.Washington pushed ob at KC 41 for 23 yards (57-J.Sanborn; 53-T.Edwards).
1st · 13:54CHI +3% win prob(13:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 19-K.Toney to KC 36 for -1 yards (33-J.Johnson).
1st · 12:34KC +2% win prob(12:34) 5-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to CHI 3, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.
1st · 6:51
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jerick McKinnon's 6-yard touchdown catch with 6:55 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:55Jerick McKinnon·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+70–7
Chiefs ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.64 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.30Bears: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.24Chiefs: +0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.64Bears: −0.64 expected points added per play
+0.38Chiefs: +0.38 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Bears: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.05Chiefs: +0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 51 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 73 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Bears 2, Chiefs 6.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CHI's blitz rate sent, 7.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 5.5 points clear of the next team along.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.5 points.
KC's early-down pass rate turned over: 68.1% in week 2 against 49.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points.
KC's pass rate over expected turned over: +17.1 pts in week 2 against +1.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
73 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −0.2 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Chiefs13.8%
inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteKC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 49.2%, 13.4 points below their season mean of 62.5% and 1.7 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
58Darnell WrightT · Every snap100%51 snaps
75Larry BoromT · Every snap100%51 snaps
62Lucas PatrickC · Every snap100%51 snaps
69Ja'Tyre CarterG · Every snap100%51 snaps
65Cody WhitehairG · Every snap100%51 snaps
2D.J. MooreWR · Every snap100%51 snaps
1Justin FieldsQB · Every snap100%51 snaps
10Chase ClaypoolWR · Full-time86%44 snaps
85Cole KmetTE · Heavy rotation76%39 snaps
11Darnell MooneyWR · Heavy rotation71%36 snaps
24Khalil HerbertRB · Heavy rotation55%28 snaps
23Roschon JohnsonRB · Rotational45%23 snaps
13Tyler ScottWR · Situational20%10 snaps
84Marcedes LewisTE · Situational18%9 snaps
18Robert TonyanTE · Situational16%8 snaps
35Khari BlasingameFB · Situational10%5 snaps
20Travis HomerRB · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
A.J. ThomasFSEddie JacksonFSDaniel HardyOLBTyson BagentQBD'Onta ForemanRBEquanimeous St. BrownWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Nate DavisGNathan PetermanQBAviante CollinsT
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%77 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%77 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Full-time91%70 snaps
79Donovan SmithT · Full-time90%69 snaps
74Jawaan TaylorT · Full-time83%64 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Heavy rotation73%56 snaps
24Skyy MooreWR · Heavy rotation65%50 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Heavy rotation61%47 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Heavy rotation61%47 snaps
11Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation53%41 snaps
4Rashee RiceWR · Heavy rotation51%39 snaps
10Isiah PachecoRB · Rotational42%32 snaps
84Justin WatsonWR · Rotational40%31 snaps
8Justyn RossWR · Rotational38%29 snaps
25Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Rotational30%23 snaps
81Blake BellTE · Rotational29%22 snaps
1Jerick McKinnonRB · Rotational29%22 snaps
9Blaine GabbertQB · Rotational27%21 snaps
76Prince Tega WanoghoT · Situational18%14 snaps
73Nick AllegrettiG · Situational9%7 snaps
66Mike CaliendoG · Situational9%7 snaps
19Kadarius ToneyWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Nic JonesCBB.J. ThompsonDENick BoltonILBKeondre CoburnNTWanya MorrisTLucas NiangT
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass+7% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to KC 37 for 10 yards (27-G.Stroman). Penalty on CHI-29-T.Stevenson, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q1 14:22 · Chiefs · 3rd & 8 at KC 27 · gained 10 · +2.07 EP · +7.4% win probability
157 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 88 yards from the KC 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
42%
Yards
659
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.2460%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.2958%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR29+0.2845%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.0517%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.7233%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Bears2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 42
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 3 to the Bears 24
Bears0Chiefs6
Bears0Chiefs7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 41 to the Bears 1
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Chiefs 36
The period ended5 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Chiefs 33
2nd quarter57 plays
Bears0Chiefs13
Bears0Chiefs14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 39 to the Bears 1
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 47
Bears0Chiefs20
Bears0Chiefs21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 12 to the Bears 3
Fumble lost3 plays
Bears0Chiefs24
Field goal4 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Bears 23
Intercepted3 plays
Bears0Chiefs30
Bears0Chiefs31
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Bears 1
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 31
Bears0Chiefs34
Field goal7 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Bears 20
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 32
Bears0Chiefs40
Bears0Chiefs41
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 36 to the Bears 1
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 41
Intercepted3 plays, from the Bears 41 to the Bears 35
The period ended8 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Chiefs 8
4th quarter36 plays
Bears3Chiefs41
Field goal4 plays, from the Chiefs 7 to the Chiefs 3
Intercepted13 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Bears 29
Bears9Chiefs41
Bears10Chiefs41
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Chiefs 9
The period ended9 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Bears 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
