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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 24, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 3
It turned at Q1 11:11, 2nd and 5, on Khalil Herbert — 3.9 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Kansas City Chiefs 41–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:11, Chiefs +3.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:11 · 2nd and 5
Khalil Herbert
Chiefs
(11:11) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert right guard to CHI 24 for 1 yard (23-D.Tranquill; 22-T.McDuffie).
3.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.64 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Bears at 4 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 10 of 14 on third down, against Bears at 4 of 12 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.24 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.30 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
(11:11) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert right guard to CHI 24 for 1 yard (23-D.Tranquill; 22-T.McDuffie).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jerick McKinnon's 6-yard touchdown catch with 6:55 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Jerick McKinnon6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+70–79 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Bearscategory by categoryChiefs
Chiefs ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.64 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 51 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 73 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Bears 2, Chiefs 6.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's blitz rate sent, 7.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 5.5 points clear of the next team along.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.5 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
KC's early-down pass rate turned over: 68.1% in week 2 against 49.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
KC's pass rate over expected turned over: +17.1 pts in week 2 against +1.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
73 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points. · −0.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 23 pts
Over Expected room →Bears-8.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.2 vs their -5.1 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 51 snaps
Chiefs1.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 6.8 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 73 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 84%
Tendencies room →Bears54.1%right on their number · +3.0 vs their 51.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 37 early downs
Chiefs49.2%leaned — ran early · −13.4 vs their 62.5%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−1.70× that swing) · 59 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 42%
Tendencies room →Bears27.6%inside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Chiefs22.0%inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 97%
Fourth Down room →Bears50.0%inside their normal wobble · +10.1 vs their 39.9%, and they swing ±19.9 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Chiefs—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 65%
Tendencies room →Bears7.3%leaned — sat back · −14.0 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Chiefs31.0%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 36%
Tendencies room →Bears12.2%right on their number · −0.2 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Chiefs13.8%inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
KC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 49.2%, 13.4 points below their season mean of 62.5% and 1.7 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
24/33, 272 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
20.9 expected points added · +8.2% completion over expected
Passing · CHI
11/22, 99 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-13.2 expected points added · +0.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jerick McKinnon banked 8.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 25.7 | −2.4 | 73% | — | 0% | — | 24/33, 272 yd, 3 TD · 3 car, 28 yd |
| Travis KelceTE · Featured Receiver | 19.9 | +2.4 | 61% | 73% | 22% | 22% | 7/8, 69 yd, 1 TD |
| Jerick McKinnonRB | 17.8 | +8.0 | 29% | 39% | 8% | 0% | 2 car, 9 yd · 3/3, 19 yd, 2 TD |
| Isiah PachecoRB · Committee Back | 15.8 | −9.3 | 42% | 41% | 8% | 0% | 15 car, 62 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 16 yd |
| D.J. MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.1 | +2.1 | 100% | 100% | 30% | 43% | 3/6, 41 yd, 1 TD |
| Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Committee Back | 12.7 | −0.1 | 30% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 15 car, 55 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Rashee RiceWR · Featured Receiver | 10.9 | −1.2 | 51% | 51% | 19% | 18% | 5/7, 59 yd |
| Justin FieldsQB · Starter QB | 10.7 | −11.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 11/22, 99 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 11 car, 47 yd |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | −1.6 | 65% | 59% | 16% | 23% | 4/6, 42 yd |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +0.2 | 40% | 54% | 8% | 20% | 2/3, 51 yd |
| Roschon JohnsonRB · Committee Back | 6.9 | +0.4 | 45% | 45% | 10% | 1% | 8 car, 38 yd · 2/2, 11 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −0.6 | 53% | 63% | 5% | 16% | 1/2, 37 yd |
| Cole KmetTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +1.4 | 76% | 83% | 10% | 4% | 2/2, 22 yd |
| Khalil HerbertRB · Receiving Back | 3.5 | −3.5 | 55% | 52% | 10% | 0% | 7 car, 31 yd · 2/2, 4 yd |
| Chase ClaypoolWR · Featured Receiver | 2.5 | −5.3 | 86% | 90% | 20% | 30% | 1/4, 15 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −1.5 | 61% | 63% | 5% | 6% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Tyler ScottWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −4.0 | 20% | 21% | 15% | 14% | 1/3, 6 yd |
| Kadarius ToneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Velus JonesRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 71% | 72% | 5% | 8% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Justyn RossWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 38% | 27% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Montrell WashingtonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Blaine GabbertQB | -2.9 | −4.2 | 27% | — | 0% | — | 3/5, 31 yd, 2 INT · 2 car, -1 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to KC 37 for 10 yards (27-G.Stroman). Penalty on CHI-29-T.Stevenson, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q1 14:22 · Chiefs · 3rd & 8 at KC 27 · gained 10 · +2.07 EP · +7.4% win probability
157 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 88 yards from the KC 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bears0
Chiefs6Bears0Chiefs7Bears0Chiefs13Bears0Chiefs14Bears0Chiefs20Bears0Chiefs21Bears0Chiefs24Bears0Chiefs30Bears0Chiefs31Bears0Chiefs34Bears0Chiefs40Bears0Chiefs41Bears3Chiefs41Bears9Chiefs41Bears10Chiefs41Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bears at Chiefs, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 11/22 | 99 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −13.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Roschon Johnson | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Khalil Herbert |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Moore | 3 | 6 | 41 | 1 | 30% | +3.0 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 10% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Edwards | 4 | 11 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terell Smith | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tremaine Edmunds |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 24/33 | 272 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +20.9 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 3/5 | 31 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_03_CHI_KC
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -13 and covered, winning by 31.
Total closed 48; the game landed 51 — over by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
| 7 |
| 31 |
| 4.4 |
| 0 |
| +0.0 |
| +1.8 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 20% | −3.9 |
| Roschon Johnson | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 10% | +0.1 |
| Tyler Scott | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 15% | −2.1 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10% | −5.7 |
| Darnell Mooney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −2.8 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jaylon Jones | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaquan Brisker | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noah Sewell | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Stroman | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Hicks | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jack Sanborn | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| −6.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 1 | −1.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 8 | 69 | 1 | 22% | +7.1 |
| Rashee Rice | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 | 19% | +1.0 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 | 8% | +3.0 |
| Skyy Moore | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 | 16% | −4.0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 5% | +3.2 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 3 | 19 | 2 | 8% | +4.8 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 8% | +0.9 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 5% | +0.7 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Justyn Ross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drue Tranquill | 3 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent McDuffie | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Nnadi | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Herring | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Cochrane | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Felix Anudike-Uzomah | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashee Rice | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Willie Gay | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
