2023 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 24, 2023 · State Farm Stadium

Dallas Cowboys

Arizona CardinalsWinner

DAL -11.5 upsetO 43.5 ✓Cowboys closed -11.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Arizona Cardinals 28–16. Biggest swing: Q4 9:28, ARI +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 9:28DAL 16 — ARI 21ARI ball · 1st & 10ARI 68%

(9:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson pushed ob at DAL 7 for 69 yards (28-M.Hooker, 33-D.Clark).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 9:28ARI +14% win prob(9:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson pushed ob at DAL 7 for 69 yards (28-M.Hooker, 33-D.Clark).
Q4 · 3:05DAL +11% win prob(3:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 3-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 7-K.White at ARI -4. Touchback.
Q3 · 7:34ARI +10% win prob(7:34) 16-N.Cooney punts 52 yards to DAL 26, Center-46-A.Brewer. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at ARI 23 for 51 yards (0-Z.Pascal). PENALTY on DAL-50-D.Harper, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 26.
Q2 · 0:04ARI +10% win prob(:04) 5-M.Prater 62 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:35ARI Field goal
(12:35) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.
Score after this play: DAL 0 — ARI 3
Q1 · 6:16ARI Touchdown
(6:16) 6-J.Conner right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: DAL 0 — ARI 9
Q1 · 1:52DAL Field goal
(1:52) 17-B.Aubrey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: DAL 3 — ARI 9
Q2 · 12:38ARI Touchdown
(12:38) (Shotgun) 4-R.Moore left tackle for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: DAL 3 — ARI 15
Q2 · 5:40DAL Touchdown
(5:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 23-R.Dowdle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DAL 10 — ARI 15
Q2 · 1:31ARI Field goal
(1:31) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.
Score after this play: DAL 10 — ARI 18
Q2 · 0:04ARI Field goal
(:04) 5-M.Prater 62 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.
Score after this play: DAL 10 — ARI 21
Q3 · 9:30DAL Field goal
(9:30) 17-B.Aubrey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: DAL 13 — ARI 21
Q4 · 9:36DAL Field goal
(9:36) 17-B.Aubrey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: DAL 16 — ARI 21
Q4 · 7:27ARI Touchdown
(7:27) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short right to 2-M.Brown for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-D.Lawrence]. (kick good)
Score after this play: DAL 16 — ARI 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	Cardinals
Offensive plays	75	53
Total yards	416 (edge)	402
Yards per play	5.5	7.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.06	0.22 (edge)
Success rate	48%	55% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	45%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04	0.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.21	0.28 (edge)
Third downs	9/16 (edge)	5/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	7
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Cowboys outgained Cardinals 416–402 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

25/40, 249 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-3.7 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Joshua DobbsQB

17/21, 189 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.6 expected points added · +10.5% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Tony PollardRB

23 att, 122 yds, 0 TD

4.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

14 att, 98 yds, 1 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

Michael GallupWR

6/7 for 92 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Marquise BrownWR

5/7 for 61 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 25	7	54	2:29	Field goal +3
2	DAL	DAL 25	5	5	2:30	Punt
3	ARI	ARI 18	8	60	3:49	Touchdown +6
4	DAL	DAL 25	11	34	4:24	Field goal +3
5	ARI	ARI 25	9	80	4:17	Touchdown +6
6	DAL	DAL 25	15	89	6:59	Touchdown +7
7	ARI	ARI 25	11	60	4:04	Field goal +3
8	DAL	DAL 25	8	25	1:03	Punt
9	ARI	ARI 29	5	22	0:25	Field goal +3
10	DAL	DAL 25	14	67	5:33	Field goal +3
11	ARI	ARI 25	5	2	2:08	Punt
12	DAL	DAL 16	8	90	4:22	Turnover on downs
13	ARI	ARI 5	7	17	3:04	Punt
14	DAL	DAL 36	12	42	5:20	Field goal +3
15	ARI	ARI 24	6	76	2:11	Touchdown +7
16	DAL	DAL 25	14	64	4:22	Interception
17	ARI	ARI 20	8	31	3:00	End of game

10 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 90 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	25/40	249	1	1	2	-3.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Tony Pollard	23	122	5.3	4.8
Dak Prescott	3	24	8.0	2.1
Rico Dowdle	4	21	5.3	0.6
CeeDee Lamb	2	9	4.5	-0.0
Hunter Luepke	1	9	9.0	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Gallup	6	7	92	0	19%	5.9
CeeDee Lamb	4	7	53	0	19%	-1.5
Jake Ferguson	5	7	48	0	19%	1.1
Rico Dowdle	3	3	25	1	8%	2.8
Brandin Cooks	2	7	17	0	19%	-5.3
Hunter Luepke	1	1	12	0	3%	0.8
Peyton Hendershot	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.4
Luke Schoonmaker	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8
Tony Pollard	3	3	-1	0	8%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Damone Clark	7	3	0.0	0
Daron Bland	5	1	0.0	0
Jayron Kearse	4	1	0.0	0
Donovan Wilson	3	1	0.0	0
Micah Parsons	1	3	1.0	0
Demarcus Lawrence	3	1	1.0	0
Malik Hooker	2	2	0.0	0
Jourdan Lewis	2	1	0.0	0
Stephon Gilmore	1	1	0.0	1
Osa Odighizuwa	1	1	0.0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joshua Dobbs	17/21	189	1	0	2	3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	14	98	7.0	1	2.9
Joshua Dobbs	6	55	9.2	0	2.0
Rondale Moore	3	54	18.0	1	3.4
Keaontay Ingram	5	13	2.6	0	-1.5
Emari Demercado	2	2	1.0	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Wilson	2	2	86	0	10%	5.5
Marquise Brown	5	7	61	1	33%	5.5
James Conner	2	2	18	0	10%	1.6
Rondale Moore	4	6	8	0	29%	-2.5
Keaontay Ingram	1	1	8	0	5%	-0.3
Zach Ertz	2	2	6	0	10%	-1.8
Trey McBride	1	1	2	0	5%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kyzir White	7	6	0.0	1	1
Kei'Trel Clark	7	2	0.0	0	2
Jalen Thompson	5	3	0.0	0	1
Krys Barnes	6	1	0.0	0	2
K'Von Wallace	3	3	0.0	0	1
Jonathan Ledbetter	3	1	0.0	0	0
Marco Wilson	2	1	0.0	0	2
Victor Dimukeje	3	0	1.0	0	0
Zaven Collins	2	0	1.0	0	0
Ben Stille	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -11.5
Closing total: 43.5
DAL moneyline: -650
ARI moneyline: +470

Cowboys closed -11.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 44 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: open · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: DAL 7 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches: Mike McCarthy vs Jonathan Gannon