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Arizona Cardinals 28, Cowboys 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 9:28, 1st and 10, on Michael Wilson — 13.6 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:28 · 1st and 10
Michael Wilson
Cardinals
(9:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson pushed ob at DAL 7 for 69 yards (28-M.Hooker, 33-D.Clark).
O 43.5 ✓
96°F
Cowboys closed -11.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Arizona Cardinals 28–16. Biggest swing: Q4 9:28, Cardinals +13.6% win probability on one snap.
13.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetCardinalsQ3 7:34(7:34) 16-N.Cooney punts 52 yards to DAL 26, Center-46-A.Brewer. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at ARI 23 for 51 yards (0-Z.Pascal). PENALTY on DAL-50-D.Harper, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 26.
10.3pts
Kyzir WhiteCardinalsQ4 3:05(3:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 3-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 7-K.White at ARI -4. Touchback.
10.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Cardinals won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Cowboys at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cardinals won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cowboys at 48% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cardinals won this one — no giveaways, against Cowboys at 1 giveaway.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at +0.06 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 27.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 43 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Cowboys173 of 184 plays carry both curves
(9:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson pushed ob at DAL 7 for 69 yards (28-M.Hooker, 33-D.Clark).
Swing +13.6 for CardinalsExpected points +4.37 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 11 points higher than the market did.play 153
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 9:28ARI +14% win prob(9:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson pushed ob at DAL 7 for 69 yards (28-M.Hooker, 33-D.Clark).
4th · 3:05DAL +11% win prob(3:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 3-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 7-K.White at ARI -4. Touchback.
3rd · 7:34ARI +10% win prob(7:34) 16-N.Cooney punts 52 yards to DAL 26, Center-46-A.Brewer. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at ARI 23 for 51 yards (0-Z.Pascal). PENALTY on DAL-50-D.Harper, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 26.
2nd · 0:04ARI +10% win prob(:04) 5-M.Prater 62 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.
3rd · 12:12ARI +10% win prob(12:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at ARI 22 for 32 yards (13-K.Clark).
1st · 1:52ARI +9% win prob(1:52) 17-B.Aubrey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Prater's 39-yard field goal with 12:35 left in the 1st put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:35Matt Prater·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder N.Cooney · snap A.BrewerLead never changed again+30–3
1st6:16James Conner·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+60–9
1st1:52Brandon Aubrey·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+33–9
2nd12:38Rondale Moore·45-yd TD run45-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+63–15
2nd5:40Rico Dowdle·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+710–15
2nd1:31Matt Prater·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder N.Cooney · snap A.Brewer+310–18
2nd0:04Matt Prater·62-yd field goal62-yard field goalholder N.Cooney · snap A.Brewer+310–21
3rd9:30Brandon Aubrey·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+313–21
4th9:36Brandon Aubrey·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+316–21
Cardinals ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Cowboys: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.22Cardinals: +0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Cowboys: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.15Cardinals: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.21Cowboys: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.28Cardinals: +0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 75 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 53 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 5, Cardinals 3.
NoteCowboys outgained Cardinals 416-402 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's play-action rate turned over: 31.3% in week 2 against 8.3% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · +0.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Cardinals8.9%
right on their number · −1.0 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteDAL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 58.3%, 29.2 points above their season mean of 29.1% and 2.5 times their own 11.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Dobbs left+12% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs left end to DAL 29 for 44 yards (26-D.Bland).
Q1 14:36 · Cardinals · 2nd & 8 at ARI 27 · gained 44 · +3.33 EP · +11.9% win probability
171 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 179. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 82 yards from the ARI 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
46%
Yards
816
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.0969%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.2252%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.1147%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.0950%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9-0.1333%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.1814%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.210%
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Cardinals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Cowboys0Cardinals3
Field goal7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cowboys 21
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 29
Cowboys0Cardinals9
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cardinals 18 to the Cowboys 5
Cowboys3Cardinals9
Field goal12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cardinals 31
The period ended5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 31
2nd quarter59 plays
Cowboys3Cardinals15
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 43 to the Cowboys 45
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Cowboys9Cardinals15
Cowboys10Cardinals15
Touchdown17 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cardinals 11
Cowboys10Cardinals18
Field goal15 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cowboys 24
The period ended11 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 40
Cowboys10Cardinals21
Field goal8 plays, from the Cardinals 29 to the Cowboys 44
3rd quarter36 plays
Cowboys13Cardinals21
Field goal14 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cardinals 8
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 27
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Cardinals 4
The period ended7 plays, from the Cardinals 5 to the Cardinals 32
4th quarter47 plays
Punt1 play
Cowboys16Cardinals21
Field goal13 plays, from the Cowboys 36 to the Cardinals 8
Cowboys16Cardinals27
Cowboys16Cardinals28
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 24 to the Cowboys 2
Intercepted15 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cardinals 5
The period ended12 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cowboys 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -11.5
Closing total
43.5
Cowboys moneyline
-650
Cardinals moneyline
+470
Cowboys closed -11.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 44 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
open · grass
Kickoff weather
Hot, 96°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Cowboys 7 days · Cardinals 7 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Jonathan Gannon
2nd · 2:00
ARI +9% win prob
(2:00) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney. PENALTY on DAL-30-J.Thomas, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 32 - No Play.
3rd · 0:17DAL +9% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs sacked at ARI 22 for -10 yards (11-M.Parsons).
