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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:41 AM ET · 16 to play
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Broncos176 of 184 plays carry both curves
(13:48) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +8.4 for DolphinsExpected points +4.11 for DolphinsThe model had Broncos 15 points higher than the market did.play 5
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:48MIA +8% win prob(13:48) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:21MIA +6% win prob(1:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Wilkins].
2nd · 4:52DEN +5% win prob(4:52) 30-A.Ingold up the middle to MIA 34 for no gain (49-A.Singleton, 42-N.Bonitto).
2nd · 10:21MIA +4% win prob(10:21) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 28-D.Achane for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:46MIA +3% win prob(10:46) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left end to DEN 35 for 26 yards (22-K.Jackson).
1st · 12:16MIA +3% win prob(12:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 61 yards to MIA 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 19 for 10 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell, 0-J.Cooper).
2nd · 1:45
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyreek Hill's 54-yard touchdown catch with 13:48 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 13 scores that followed.
Lead
1st13:48Tyreek Hill·54-yd TD catch54-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+70–7
Dolphins ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.11 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.27Broncos: −0.27 expected points added per play
+0.66Dolphins: +0.66 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.25Broncos: −0.25 expected points added per play
+1.11Dolphins: +1.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.30Broncos: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.36Dolphins: +0.36 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 59 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 70 at 40%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 5, Dolphins 10.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.66 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 22 team-games charted in week 3 — 20.0 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 2.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.1 points.
DEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 20.0% in week 2 against 3.6% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
MIA's sack or hit rate turned over: 17.0% in week 2 against 33.3% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
MIA's play-action rate turned over: 18.8% in week 2 against 35.7% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.5 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.76× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Dolphins33.3%
leaned — got home · +13.4 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.74× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteDEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.6%, 11.5 points below their season mean of 15.0% and 1.8 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%62 snaps
74Ben PowersG · Every snap100%62 snaps
79Lloyd CushenberryC · Every snap100%62 snaps
77Quinn MeinerzG · Every snap100%62 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
69Mike McGlincheyT · Full-time97%60 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Full-time95%59 snaps
82Adam TrautmanTE · Full-time87%54 snaps
10Jerry JeudyWR · Heavy rotation76%47 snaps
89Brandon JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation60%37 snaps
33Javonte WilliamsRB · Rotational42%26 snaps
25Samaje PerineRB · Rotational31%19 snaps
19Marvin MimsWR · Situational24%15 snaps
84Chris ManhertzTE · Situational21%13 snaps
38Jaleel McLaughlinRB · Situational21%13 snaps
17Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Situational21%13 snaps
20Michael BurtonFB · Situational11%7 snaps
45Nate AdkinsTE · Situational10%6 snaps
73Cameron FlemingT · Situational3%2 snaps
75Quinn BaileyG · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Alex ForsythCRonnie PerkinsDEElijah GarciaDEJustin SimmonsFSFrank ClarkOLBJ.L. SkinnerSS
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Tagovailoa pass+12% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:48) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 13:48 · Dolphins · 1st & 10 at MIA 46 · gained 54 · +4.11 EP · +11.8% win probability
174 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 179. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
14 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 90 yards from the MIA 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
47%
Yards
1089
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.5366%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+1.1642%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR29+0.5541%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.0329%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.1967%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.1160%
Broncos0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Broncos0Dolphins6
Broncos0Dolphins7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 46
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 30
Broncos0Dolphins13
Broncos0Dolphins14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 19 to the Broncos 8
Broncos6Dolphins14
Broncos7Dolphins14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Dolphins 12
The period ended5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 38
2nd quarter63 plays
Broncos7Dolphins20
Broncos7Dolphins21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 43 to the Broncos 4
Broncos10Dolphins21
Field goal11 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Dolphins 7
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 34
Punt5 plays
Broncos10Dolphins27
Broncos10Dolphins28
Touchdown9 plays, from the Dolphins 14 to the Broncos 20
Fumble lost3 plays
Broncos10Dolphins34
Broncos10Dolphins35
Touchdown2 plays
Broncos13Dolphins35
Field goal13 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Dolphins 4
The period ended3 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 46
Broncos13Dolphins41
Broncos13Dolphins42
Touchdown12 plays, from the Dolphins 10 to the Broncos 1
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Dolphins 48
Broncos13Dolphins48
Broncos13Dolphins49
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Broncos 19
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter43 plays
Broncos13Dolphins55
Broncos13Dolphins56
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 28
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 19 to the Dolphins 28
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 32
Broncos13Dolphins62
Broncos13Dolphins63
Touchdown4 plays, from the Dolphins 32 to the Dolphins 35
Broncos19Dolphins63
Broncos20Dolphins63
Touchdown2 plays
Broncos20Dolphins69
Broncos20Dolphins70
Touchdown4 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 33
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Dolphins 9
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Dolphins 21 to the Broncos 23
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Dolphins -6
Closing total
47.5
Broncos moneyline
+205
Dolphins moneyline
-250
Dolphins closed -6 and covered, winning by 50.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 90 — over by 42.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 86°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the east; 0.11 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Broncos 7 days · Dolphins 7 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Mike McDaniel
DEN +3% win prob
(1:45) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 30 for 5 yards (8-J.Holland) [94-C.Wilkins]. FUMBLES (8-J.Holland), RECOVERED by MIA-43-A.Van Ginkel at DEN 32. 43-A.Van Ginkel to DEN 3 for 29 yards (3-R.Wilson).
2nd · 12:48MIA +3% win prob(12:48) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 0-B.Berrios pushed ob at DEN 23 for 11 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell). DEN-47-J.Jewell was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
