For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2023 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 24, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium

Denver Broncos

20

Miami DolphinsWinner

70

MIA -6 ✓O 47.5 ✓

Miami Dolphins 70–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:48, MIA +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIA ↑DEN ↓
Q1 · 13:48DEN 0 — MIA 6MIA ball · 1st & 10MIA 73%

(13:48) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 13:48MIA +8% win prob(13:48) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 1:21MIA +6% win prob(1:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Wilkins].
  3. Q2 · 4:52DEN +5% win prob(4:52) 30-A.Ingold up the middle to MIA 34 for no gain (49-A.Singleton, 42-N.Bonitto).
  4. Q2 · 10:21MIA +4% win prob(10:21) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 28-D.Achane for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 13:48MIA Touchdown

    (13:48) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 0 — MIA 7
  2. Q1 · 6:36MIA Touchdown

    (6:36) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 0 — MIA 14
  3. Q1 · 1:21DEN Touchdown

    (1:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Wilkins]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — MIA 14
  4. Q2 · 10:21MIA Touchdown

    (10:21) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 28-D.Achane for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — MIA 21
  5. Q2 · 6:41DEN Field goal

    (6:41) 16-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: DEN 10 — MIA 21
  6. Q2 · 1:55MIA Touchdown

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert up the middle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 10 — MIA 28
  7. Q2 · 1:33MIA Touchdown

    (1:33) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 10 — MIA 35
  8. Q2 · 0:07DEN Field goal

    (:07) 16-W.Lutz 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: DEN 13 — MIA 35
  9. Q3 · 7:52MIA Touchdown

    (7:52) 31-R.Mostert up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 13 — MIA 42
  10. Q3 · 0:38MIA Touchdown

    (:38) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 31-R.Mostert for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 13 — MIA 49
  11. Q4 · 15:00MIA Touchdown

    (15:00) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 28-D.Achane for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 13 — MIA 56
  12. Q4 · 9:17MIA Touchdown

    (9:17) (Shotgun) 14-M.White pass deep right to 3-R.Chosen for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 13 — MIA 63
  13. Q4 · 9:05DEN Touchdown

    7-J.Sanders kicks 64 yards from MIA 35 to DEN 1. 19-M.Mims for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 20 — MIA 63
  14. Q4 · 8:12MIA Touchdown

    (8:12) 28-D.Achane left tackle for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 20 — MIA 70

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBroncosDolphins
Offensive plays5970
Total yards363727 (edge)
Yards per play6.210.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.270.66 (edge)
Success rate34%63% (edge)
Dropback rate66%40%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.251.11 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.300.36 (edge)
Third downs4/125/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)611 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1628 (edge)
Sacks taken10 (edge)
Turnovers30 (edge)

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.66 expected points added per play vs -0.27.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

23/26, 309 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

26.4 expected points added · +16.5% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

23/38, 306 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.2 expected points added · +3.9% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Devon AchaneRB

18 att, 203 yds, 2 TD

12.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

13 att, 82 yds, 3 TD

6.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

9/11 for 157 yds, 1 TD

39% of team targets · 11.6 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

8/11 for 91 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · -8.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 255751:23Touchdown +7
2DENDEN 25551:33Punt
3MIAMIA 1910815:33Touchdown +7
4DENDEN 2512755:19Touchdown +7
5MIAMIA 2513905:56Touchdown +7
6DENDEN 259723:40Field goal +3
7MIAMIA 25591:49Turnover on downs
8DENMIA 334-21:38Punt
9MIAMIA 147801:20Touchdown +7
10DENDEN 25350:16Fumble
11MIADEN 3230:04Touchdown +7
12DENDEN 2510731:26Field goal +3
13MIAMIA 25260:03End of half
14DENDEN 256172:43Punt
15MIAMIA 1012904:29Touchdown +7
16DENDEN 258522:35Fumble
17MIAMIA 2310774:44Touchdown +7
18DENDEN 18200:14Interception
19MIADEN 8380:20Touchdown +7
20DENDEN 25531:00Punt
21MIAMIA 19481:58Punt
22DENDEN 25471:29Punt
23MIAMIA 324681:23Touchdown +7
24DEN—200:15Defensive touchdown +7
25MIAMIA 254750:49Touchdown +7
26DENDEN 258494:01Turnover on downs
27MIAMIA 216573:30Turnover on downs
28DENDEN 28170:30End of game

14 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 90 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Russell Wilson23/383061112.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Javonte Williams11423.80-1.7
Jaleel McLaughlin5153.00-2.9
Samaje Perine393.00-1.1
Marvin Mims133.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Courtland Sutton81191131%-8.6
Jerry Jeudy5781019%3.4
Marvin Mims3573014%3.9
Javonte Williams232308%1.3
Samaje Perine231508%0.3
Brandon Johnson231208%0.5
Nate Adkins111103%0.6
Adam Trautman02006%-6.4
Chris Manhertz01003%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Delarrin Turner-Yell830.000
Kareem Jackson440.000
Jonathon Cooper340.000
Zach Allen240.000
Alex Singleton330.000
Patrick Surtain410.000
Damarri Mathis410.000
Jonathan Harris220.000
Nik Bonitto220.000
Josey Jewell120.000

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa23/2630940026.4
Mike White2/2671004.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Devon Achane1820311.3212.5
Raheem Mostert13826.336.1
Christopher Brooks9667.301.2
Alec Ingold200.00-4.8
Mike White1-1-1.00-2.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyreek Hill911157139%11.6
Robbie Chosen116814%6.6
Raheem Mostert7760125%4.3
Braxton Berrios223307%4.0
Devon Achane4430214%3.0
Durham Smythe111504%1.2
River Cracraft111304%0.7
Julian Hill01004%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
David Long Jr.440.000
Jevon Holland610.001
DeShon Elliott320.002
Emmanuel Ogbah121.011
Xavien Howard300.000
Andrew Van Ginkel210.000
Brandon Jones120.000
Kader Kohou120.002
Christian Wilkins020.001
Justin Bethel200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIA -6
Closing total
47.5
DEN moneyline
+205
MIA moneyline
-250

Dolphins closed -6 and covered, winning by 50.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 90 — over by 42.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
86°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
DEN 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Mike McDaniel