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2023 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 24, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

37

Jacksonville Jaguars

17

JAX -7.5 upsetO 43.5 ✓

Houston Texans 37–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 4:35, JAX +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑HOU ↓
Q3 · 4:35HOU 23 — JAX 10HOU ballHOU 66%

10-B.McManus kicks 55 yards from JAX 35 to HOU 10. 47-A.Beck MUFFS catch, and recovers at HOU 15. 47-A.Beck for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 4:35JAX +18% win prob10-B.McManus kicks 55 yards from JAX 35 to HOU 10. 47-A.Beck MUFFS catch, and recovers at HOU 15. 47-A.Beck for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 8:47JAX +14% win prob(8:47) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 3-N.Dell to JAX 2 for 46 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
  3. Q2 · 1:13HOU +11% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 39-J.Agnew to HOU 30 for 15 yards (23-E.Murray; 39-H.To'oTo'o). FUMBLES (23-E.Murray), RECOVERED by HOU-53-B.Cashman at HOU 32. 53-B.Cashman to HOU 34 for 2 yards (39-J.Agnew).
  4. Q3 · 11:27JAX +10% win prob(11:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep left to 0-C.Ridley. PENALTY on HOU-1-J.Ward, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at HOU 26 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:39HOU Touchdown

    (7:39) 31-D.Pierce left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 7 — JAX 0
  2. Q2 · 7:30HOU Touchdown

    (7:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 9-B.Jordan for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 14 — JAX 0
  3. Q2 · 0:03HOU Field goal

    (:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

    Score after this play: HOU 17 — JAX 0
  4. Q3 · 11:20JAX Touchdown

    (11:20) (Shotgun) 4-T.Bigsby up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 17 — JAX 7
  5. Q3 · 4:39JAX Field goal

    (4:39) 10-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: HOU 17 — JAX 10
  6. Q3 · 4:35HOU Touchdown

    10-B.McManus kicks 55 yards from JAX 35 to HOU 10. 47-A.Beck MUFFS catch, and recovers at HOU 15. 47-A.Beck for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 24 — JAX 10
  7. Q4 · 12:39HOU Field goal

    (12:39) 15-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

    Score after this play: HOU 27 — JAX 10
  8. Q4 · 10:45JAX Touchdown

    (10:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 13-C.Kirk for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 27 — JAX 17
  9. Q4 · 9:08HOU Touchdown

    (9:08) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 3-N.Dell for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 34 — JAX 17
  10. Q4 · 2:14HOU Field goal

    (2:14) 15-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

    Score after this play: HOU 37 — JAX 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansJaguars
Offensive plays5669
Total yards366404 (edge)
Yards per play6.5 (edge)5.9
Expected points added / play0.22 (edge)-0.05
Success rate48% (edge)46%
Dropback rate55%65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.49 (edge)-0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.12-0.03 (edge)
Third downs9/15 (edge)6/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps1522 (edge)
Sacks taken00
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Jaguars outgained Texans 404–366 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

20/30, 280 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

14.3 expected points added · +6.1% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

27/40, 279 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.2 expected points added · +1.5% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

19 att, 88 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Devin SingletaryRB

9 att, 41 yds, 0 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Tank DellWR

5/7 for 145 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 13.4 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Evan EngramTE

7/8 for 67 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 3.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1HOUHOU 13551:35Punt
2JAXHOU 486181:53Missed field goal
3HOUHOU 388623:57Touchdown +7
4JAXJAX 257263:10Punt
5HOUHOU 207352:42Punt
6JAXJAX 1711504:52Missed field goal
7HOUJAX 418464:24Touchdown +7
8JAXJAX 236272:32Punt
9HOUHOU 15451:01Punt
10JAXJAX 317372:50Fumble
11HOUHOU 349561:04Field goal +3
12JAXJAX 339523:43Touchdown +7
13HOUHOU 256121:58Punt
14JAXJAX 328534:44Field goal +3
15HOU—200:16Defensive touchdown +7
16JAXJAX 256131:59Interception
17HOUJAX 4910414:44Field goal +3
18JAXJAX 258751:56Touchdown +7
19HOUHOU 255751:41Touchdown +7
20JAXJAX 259382:14Turnover on downs
21HOUJAX 447294:35Field goal +3
22JAXJAX 136152:10End of game

10 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 75 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud20/3028020014.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Devin Singletary9414.60-0.6
Dameon Pierce14312.21-2.6
C.J. Stroud3144.701.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tank Dell57145124%13.4
Robert Woods3634021%1.0
Nico Collins2334010%0.1
Dameon Pierce3328010%1.9
John Metchie221307%-0.2
Brevin Jordan221317%2.9
Dalton Schultz139010%-2.0
Devin Singletary22407%-0.9
Teagan Quitoriano01003%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Henry To'oTo'o640.001
Shaquill Griffin730.000
Jimmie Ward430.000
Blake Cashman230.012
Eric Murray320.000
Grayland Arnold220.000
Steven Nelson400.001
Kurt Hinish120.000
Christian Harris300.000
Will Anderson210.000

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence27/402791102.2
C.J. Beathard2/290000.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne19884.60-1.3
Trevor Lawrence3124.00-1.0
Tank Bigsby2105.011.4
D'Ernest Johnson362.00-0.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Evan Engram7867020%3.4
Christian Kirk4654115%0.9
Travis Etienne4550013%3.6
Jamal Agnew4549013%-2.7
Calvin Ridley3740018%-0.4
Tim Jones231108%-1.6
Brenton Strange22705%-1.1
D'Ernest Johnson22605%-0.2
Luke Farrell11403%-0.2
Tank Bigsby01003%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foyesade Oluokun460.000
Rayshawn Jenkins610.000
Andre Cisco130.000
Devin Lloyd130.001
Roy Robertson-Harris130.000
Tyson Campbell210.000
Travon Walker210.000
Jeremiah Ledbetter210.000
Jamal Agnew200.000
Darious Williams110.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
JAX -7.5
Closing total
43.5
HOU moneyline
+300
JAX moneyline
-380

Jaguars closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 54 — over by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
84°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
HOU 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Doug Pederson

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.