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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Houston Texans 37 at Jacksonville Jaguars 17. Final.
Jaguars -7.5 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 3
Houston Texans 37, Jaguars 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 4:35 — 18.0 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:35
Unnamed on the sheet
Texans
10-B.McManus kicks 55 yards from JAX 35 to HOU 10. 47-A.Beck MUFFS catch, and recovers at HOU 15. 47-A.Beck for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.0
O 43.5 ✓
Jaguars closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Houston Texans 37–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 4:35, Texans +18.0% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tank DellTexansQ1 8:47(8:47) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 3-N.Dell to JAX 2 for 46 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
14.1pts
Jamal AgnewTexansQ2 1:13(1:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 39-J.Agnew to HOU 30 for 15 yards (23-E.Murray; 39-H.To'oTo'o). FUMBLES (23-E.Murray), RECOVERED by HOU-53-B.Cashman at HOU 32. 53-B.Cashman to HOU 34 for 2 yards (39-J.Agnew).
10.8pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.49 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.06 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Jaguars at 2 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Texans won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.05 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Texans won this one — 9 of 15 on third down, against Jaguars at 6 of 13 on third down.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Texans167 of 176 plays carry both curves
Q3 · 4:35Texans 23 — Jaguars 10HOU ballHOU 66%
Texans 66%Jaguars 34%
10-B.McManus kicks 55 yards from JAX 35 to HOU 10. 47-A.Beck MUFFS catch, and recovers at HOU 15. 47-A.Beck for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −18.0 for JaguarsExpected points −6.11 for JaguarsThe model had Texans 11 points higher than the market did.play 120
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 4:35JAX +18% win prob10-B.McManus kicks 55 yards from JAX 35 to HOU 10. 47-A.Beck MUFFS catch, and recovers at HOU 15. 47-A.Beck for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:47JAX +14% win prob(8:47) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 3-N.Dell to JAX 2 for 46 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
2nd · 1:13HOU +11% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 39-J.Agnew to HOU 30 for 15 yards (23-E.Murray; 39-H.To'oTo'o). FUMBLES (23-E.Murray), RECOVERED by HOU-53-B.Cashman at HOU 32. 53-B.Cashman to HOU 34 for 2 yards (39-J.Agnew).
3rd · 11:27JAX +10% win prob(11:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep left to 0-C.Ridley. PENALTY on HOU-1-J.Ward, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at HOU 26 - No Play.
3rd · 2:28HOU +10% win prob(2:28) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle intended for 39-J.Agnew INTERCEPTED by 53-B.Cashman at JAX 49. 53-B.Cashman to JAX 49 for no gain (39-J.Agnew).
4th · 10:45JAX +9% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dameon Pierce's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 7:39 left in the 1st put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:39Dameon Pierce·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
4th2:14Ka'imi Fairbairn·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder T.Zentner · snap J.Weeks+337–17
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryJaguars
Texans6–2Jaguars
366Total yards404
6.5Yards per play5.9
48%Success rate46%
60%Third-down rate46%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays5
15First downs22
0Sacks taken0
0Turnovers2
The read
Texans ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Texans: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.05Jaguars: −0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.49Texans: +0.49 expected points added per play
−0.06Jaguars: −0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Texans: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.03Jaguars: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 56 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 69 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Texans 7, Jaguars 3.
NoteJaguars outgained Texans 404-366 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's play-action rate turned over: 13.5% in week 2 against 35.5% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
JAX's pass rate over expected turned over: +11.2 pts in week 2 against −4.1 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
HOU's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 2 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.2 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Jaguars12.9%
right on their number · −3.0 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteHOU's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 35.5%, 12.1 points above their season mean of 23.3% and 1.4 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Stroud pass+14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:47) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 3-N.Dell to JAX 2 for 46 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
Q1 8:47 · Texans · 2nd & 7 at JAX 48 · gained 46 · +4.08 EP · +13.9% win probability
165 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 75 yards from the JAX 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
44%
Yards
770
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.0867%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.2780%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19+0.1647%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.0247%
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.180%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Texans2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 13 to the Texans 18
No good6 plays, from the Texans 48 to the Texans 30
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Texans6Jaguars0
Texans7Jaguars0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 38 to the Jaguars 1
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 46
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 20 to midfield
The period ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 17 to the Jaguars 34
2nd quarter52 plays
No good7 plays, from the Jaguars 43 to the Texans 33
Texans13Jaguars0
Texans14Jaguars0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 41 to the Jaguars 4
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Texans 45
Punt5 plays
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Jaguars 31 to the Texans 45
Texans17Jaguars0
Field goal13 plays, from the Texans 34 to the Jaguars 10
3rd quarter39 plays
Texans17Jaguars6
Texans17Jaguars7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jaguars 33 to the Texans 1
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 27
Texans17Jaguars10
Field goal8 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Texans 15
Texans23Jaguars10
Texans24Jaguars10
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 38
The period ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 49 to the Jaguars 22
4th quarter44 plays
Texans27Jaguars10
Field goal7 plays, from the Jaguars 13 to the Jaguars 8
Texans27Jaguars16
Texans27Jaguars17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Texans 26
Texans33Jaguars17
Texans34Jaguars17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 32
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Texans 37
Texans37Jaguars17
Field goal8 plays, from the Jaguars 44 to the Jaguars 15
The period ended7 plays, from the Jaguars 13 to the Jaguars 27
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
