For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Colts199 of 213 plays carry both curves
(1:14) 7-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Swing −39.4 for RavensExpected points −1.62 for RavensModel and market agree here.play 211
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 1:14BAL +39% win prob(1:14) 7-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Overtime · 3:25BAL +29% win prob(3:25) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 4-Z.Flowers.
Overtime · 7:06BAL +26% win prob(7:06) 11-J.Stout punts 33 yards to IND 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.
Overtime · 6:17BAL +26% win prob(6:17) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep left to 11-M.Pittman to IND 45 for 34 yards (26-G.Stone; 21-B.Stephens). BAL-26-G.Stone was injured during the play.
4th · 0:06IND +25% win prob(:06) 9-J.Tucker 61 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Overtime · 3:28IND +19% win prob(3:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 80-I.Likely.
Overtime · 7:09
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Gay's 53-yard field goal with 1:14 left in overtime put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th11:27Matt Gay·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+316–14
4th7:38Justin Tucker·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap T.Ott+316–17
4th2:03Ravens·2 pts2 pointsthe league feed did not file the play that scored themthe league feed did not file the play that scored them+216–19
4th1:02Matt Gay·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+319–19
Overtime1:14Matt Gay·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.RhodesLead never changed again+322–19
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryRavens
Colts1–8Ravens
327Total yards364
3.9Yards per play5.1
39%Success rate49%
36%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays12
19First downs20
5Sacks taken4
0Turnovers2
The read
Ravens ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Colts: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.14Ravens: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.17Colts: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.21Ravens: −0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Colts: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.06Ravens: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 84 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Ravens’s 72 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Colts 2, Ravens 3.
NoteRavens outgained Colts 364-327 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
IND's blitz rate sent, 42.5%, sat 25.9 points above their season number of 16.6% — they sent pressure by 2.6 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 2.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.6 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Ravens14.3%
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
NoteBAL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 63.3%, 39.5 points above their season mean of 23.7% and 3.1 times their own 12.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
72Braden SmithT · Every snap100%84 snaps
79Bernhard RaimannT · Every snap100%84 snaps
10Gardner MinshewQB · Every snap100%84 snaps
62Wesley FrenchC · Every snap100%84 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Every snap100%84 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Every snap100%84 snaps
14Alec PierceWR · Full-time96%81 snaps
1Josh DownsWR · Full-time80%67 snaps
75Will FriesG · Heavy rotation79%66 snaps
21Zack MossRB · Heavy rotation76%64 snaps
83Kylen GransonTE · Heavy rotation52%44 snaps
85Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational33%28 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational30%25 snaps
65Josh SillsG · Situational21%18 snaps
27Trey SermonRB · Situational21%18 snaps
6Isaiah McKenzieWR · Situational11%9 snaps
Inactive · 7
Ryan KellyCDarrell BakerCBAdetomiwa AdebaworeDEArlington HambrightGIsaiah LandOLBAnthony RichardsonQBWill MalloryTE
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
Matt Gay+39% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:14) 7-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
OT 1:14 · Colts · 4th & 5 at BAL 35 · gained nothing · +1.62 EP · +39.4% win probability
197 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 213 plays across 32 drives, personnel groupings on 197 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 207. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 32 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 81 yards from the BAL 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
213 of 213 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
213
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
40%
Yards
691
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR69-0.1957%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.0673%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.1262%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.0231%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.7311%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR6+0.2917%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Colts0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
213 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
213 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Ravens 49
Colts0Ravens6
Colts0Ravens7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Colts 8
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 38
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Colts 46
The period ended6 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 38
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 49 to the Ravens 46
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 7 to the Ravens 13
Colts6Ravens7
Colts7Ravens7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 27 to the Ravens 17
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays
Colts10Ravens7
Field goal9 plays, from the Ravens 19 to the Ravens 7
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 30
Punt9 plays, from the Colts 46 to the Ravens 42
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 45
Colts13Ravens7
Field goal6 plays, from the Colts 45 to the Ravens 36
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 29
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 12 to the Colts 29
Colts13Ravens13
Colts13Ravens14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 19 to the Colts 10
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter63 plays
Colts16Ravens14
Field goal7 plays, from the Colts 49 to the Ravens 34
Colts16Ravens17
Field goal9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Colts 32
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 40
The period ended9 plays, from the Ravens 21 to the Ravens 49
Colts16Ravens19
How the play was built
Shotgun, nobody in motion.
Four rushed the passer, six in the box.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Offense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 28
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Colts19Ravens19
Field goal7 plays, from the Colts 38 to the Ravens 29
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Colts 43
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, thrown away.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
The period ended2 plays
Overtime27 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 29
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 48 to the Colts 44
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
How the play was built
A run-pass option, no huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Colts 11 to the Ravens 46
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
The period ended5 plays, from the Ravens 46 to the Colts 47
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Colts22Ravens19
Field goal6 plays, from the Colts 47 to the Ravens 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -7.5
Closing total
43.5
Colts moneyline
+300
Ravens moneyline
-380
Ravens closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 41 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 65°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the south-east; 0.07 in of precipitation; dense drizzle.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Colts 7 days · Ravens 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs John Harbaugh
IND +18% win prob
(7:09) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 4-Z.Flowers.
2nd · 6:03IND +17% win prob(6:03) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 17 for -7 yards (96-T.Bryan). FUMBLES (96-T.Bryan), RECOVERED by IND-51-K.Paye at BAL 19.
