2023 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 24, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

Baltimore Ravens

BAL -7.5 upsetU 43.5 ✓Ravens closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Indianapolis Colts 22–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 1:14, BAL +39% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 1:14IND 22 — BAL 19IND ball · 4th & 5IND 61%

(1:14) 7-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 1:14BAL +39% win prob(1:14) 7-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
OT · 3:25BAL +29% win prob(3:25) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 4-Z.Flowers.
OT · 7:06BAL +26% win prob(7:06) 11-J.Stout punts 33 yards to IND 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.
OT · 6:17BAL +26% win prob(6:17) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep left to 11-M.Pittman to IND 45 for 34 yards (26-G.Stone; 21-B.Stephens). BAL-26-G.Stone was injured during the play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:42BAL Touchdown
(6:42) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 0 — BAL 7
Q2 · 6:13IND Touchdown
(6:13) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 21-Z.Moss for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 7 — BAL 7
Q2 · 3:30IND Field goal
(3:30) 7-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: IND 10 — BAL 7
Q3 · 8:38IND Field goal
(8:38) 7-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: IND 13 — BAL 7
Q3 · 0:19BAL Touchdown
(:19) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 13 — BAL 14
Q4 · 11:27IND Field goal
(11:27) 7-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: IND 16 — BAL 14
Q4 · 7:38BAL Field goal
(7:38) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: IND 16 — BAL 17
Q4 · 2:03BAL Two-point
8-R.Sanchez kicks 62 yards from IND 20 to BAL 18, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Score after this play: IND 16 — BAL 19
Q4 · 1:02IND Field goal
(1:02) 7-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: IND 19 — BAL 19
OT · 1:14IND Field goal
(1:14) 7-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: IND 22 — BAL 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Ravens
Offensive plays	84	72
Total yards	327	364 (edge)
Yards per play	3.9	5.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.15	-0.14 (edge)
Success rate	39%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17 (edge)	-0.21
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13	-0.06 (edge)
Third downs	8/22	6/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	4 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Ravens outgained Colts 364–327 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Gardner MinshewQB

27/44, 227 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-8.4 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

22/31, 202 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-7.3 expected points added · +0.8% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Zack MossRB

30 att, 122 yds, 0 TD

-3.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

14 att, 101 yds, 2 TD

7.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

9/11 for 77 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Josh DownsWR

8/12 for 57 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · -2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 25	6	16	1:54	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 20	13	80	6:31	Touchdown +7
3	IND	IND 25	8	3	3:08	Punt
4	BAL	BAL 25	3	53	1:20	Fumble
5	IND	IND 20	9	34	4:11	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 7	4	1	2:20	Punt
7	IND	IND 27	10	73	4:29	Touchdown +7
8	BAL	BAL 24	2	-5	0:09	Fumble
9	IND	BAL 19	7	12	2:32	Field goal +3
10	BAL	BAL 25	5	5	1:37	Punt
11	IND	IND 46	7	1	1:31	Punt
12	BAL	BAL 12	1	14	0:18	End of half
13	BAL	BAL 25	8	23	4:06	Punt
14	IND	IND 45	6	19	2:21	Field goal +3
15	BAL	BAL 25	5	4	0:49	Punt
16	IND	IND 12	7	17	2:15	Punt
17	BAL	BAL 19	11	81	5:16	Touchdown +7
18	IND	IND 25	9	40	3:51	Field goal +3
19	BAL	BAL 25	9	43	3:49	Field goal +3
20	IND	IND 25	7	15	2:45	Punt
21	BAL	BAL 21	7	19	2:34	Punt
22	IND	IND 2	3	-1	0:11	Turnover on downs
23	BAL	BAL 25	5	3	0:22	Punt +2
24	IND	IND 38	6	33	0:44	Field goal +3
25	BAL	BAL 25	9	32	0:56	Missed field goal
26	IND	BAL 49	1	0	0:01	Turnover on downs
27	IND	IND 25	5	4	1:38	Punt
28	BAL	IND 48	4	4	1:22	Punt
29	IND	IND 11	6	43	2:50	Turnover on downs
30	BAL	BAL 46	4	7	0:49	Turnover on downs
31	IND	IND 47	5	18	2:12	Field goal +3

10 of 31 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 81 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Gardner Minshew	27/44	227	1	0	5	-8.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Zack Moss	30	122	4.1	0	-3.4
Trey Sermon	5	17	3.4	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	9	11	77	0	26%	3.8
Josh Downs	8	12	57	0	29%	-2.0
Alec Pierce	3	7	43	0	17%	-1.3
Zack Moss	2	3	23	1	7%	2.3
Andrew Ogletree	1	2	11	0	5%	0.6
Kylen Granson	2	4	9	0	10%	-1.4
Trey Sermon	1	2	4	0	5%	-1.7
Isaiah McKenzie	1	1	3	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Zaire Franklin	9	4	1.0	0
Julian Blackmon	6	6	0.0	0
Shaquille Leonard	2	4	0.0	0
Dallis Flowers	4	1	0.0	0
Samson Ebukam	4	1	1.0	0
Rodney Thomas	3	1	0.0	0
Julius Brents	4	0	0.0	0
Kenny Moore	2	2	0.0	1
Grover Stewart	2	2	0.0	0
E.J. Speed	3	0	0.0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	22/31	202	0	0	4	-7.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Lamar Jackson	14	101	7.2	2	7.8
Gus Edwards	11	51	4.6	0	-2.1
Melvin Gordon	10	32	3.2	0	-2.4
Zay Flowers	1	2	2.0	0	-0.7
Kenyan Drake	1	0	0.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Flowers	8	10	48	33%	-0.4
Nelson Agholor	4	4	39	13%	1.3
Mark Andrews	4	5	35	17%	-0.6
Kenyan Drake	2	3	31	10%	-3.8
Melvin Gordon	2	2	23	7%	1.1
Isaiah Likely	1	2	20	7%	0.4
Rashod Bateman	1	3	6	10%	-0.4
Devin Duvernay	0	1	0	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Roquan Smith	3	8	0.5	1
Patrick Queen	4	5	0.0	0
Brandon Stephens	6	3	0.0	2
Kyle Hamilton	7	2	3.0	1
Geno Stone	5	2	0.0	0
Daryl Worley	3	3	0.0	0
Michael Pierce	3	2	0.0	0
Jeremiah Moon	1	3	0.0	0
Travis Jones	1	2	0.0	0
Jadeveon Clowney	2	1	0.5	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -7.5
Closing total: 43.5
IND moneyline: +300
BAL moneyline: -380

Ravens closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 41 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 68°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: IND 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches: Shane Steichen vs John Harbaugh