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2023 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 24, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

28

Minnesota Vikings

24

MIN -1 upsetU 54 ✓Dome

Los Angeles Chargers 28–24. Biggest swing: Q4 0:12, LAC +41% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIN ↑LAC ↓
Q4 · 0:12LAC 28 — MIN 24MIN ball · 1st & 6LAC 57%

(:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 87-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 9-K.Murray (31-N.Niemann) at LAC 0. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:12LAC +41% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 87-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 9-K.Murray (31-N.Niemann) at LAC 0. Touchback.
  2. Q4 · 1:51LAC +28% win prob(1:51) 25-J.Kelley up the middle to LAC 24 for no gain (90-J.Bullard). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
  3. Q4 · 11:30MIN +28% win prob(11:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-K.Mack].
  4. Q4 · 2:58LAC +21% win prob(2:58) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 18-J.Jefferson (43-M.Davis) [97-J.Bosa]. Penalty on MIN-18-J.Jefferson, Illegal Shift, declined.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 2:55LAC Touchdown

    (2:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 89-D.Parham for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [44-J.Metellus]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 7 — MIN 0
  2. Q2 · 7:33MIN Touchdown

    (7:33) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 84-J.Oliver for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [36-J.Taylor]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 7 — MIN 7
  3. Q2 · 2:11MIN Field goal

    (2:11) 1-G.Joseph 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: LAC 7 — MIN 10
  4. Q2 · 0:50LAC Touchdown

    (:50) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 89-D.Parham for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 14 — MIN 10
  5. Q3 · 6:01LAC Touchdown

    (6:01) (Shotgun) 13-K.Allen pass deep right to 81-M.Williams for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 21 — MIN 10
  6. Q3 · 3:09MIN Touchdown

    (3:09) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 17-K.Osborn for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 21 — MIN 17
  7. Q4 · 11:30MIN Touchdown

    (11:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-K.Mack]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 21 — MIN 24
  8. Q4 · 8:11LAC Touchdown

    (8:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 5-J.Palmer for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 28 — MIN 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChargersVikings
Offensive plays6378
Total yards476 (edge)475
Yards per play7.6 (edge)6.1
Expected points added / play0.20 (edge)-0.00
Success rate51% (edge)47%
Dropback rate79%71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.42 (edge)-0.03
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.690.08 (edge)
Third downs5/11 (edge)5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)1012 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps24 (edge)23
Sacks taken1 (edge)4
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

40/47, 405 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

21.5 expected points added · +14.7% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

32/50, 367 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

1.4 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Alexander MattisonRB

20 att, 93 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Joshua KelleyRB

11 att, 12 yds, 0 TD

-8.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

18/20 for 215 yds, 0 TD

42% of team targets · 13.4 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

7/13 for 149 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LACLAC 255152:17Punt
2MINMIN 437404:11Fumble
3LACLAC 2113795:41Touchdown +7
4MINMIN 258172:58Punt
5LACLAC 2010224:40Punt
6MINMIN 256702:46Touchdown +7
7LACLAC 254181:25Fumble
8MINLAC 4511463:54Field goal +3
9LACLAC 2512751:21Touchdown +7
10MINMIN 255240:47End of half
11MINMIN 256231:20Punt
12LACLAC 67642:50Missed field goal
13MINMIN 437163:46Punt
14LACLAC 204801:11Touchdown +7
15MINMIN 2510702:52Touchdown +7
16LACLAC 257162:54Punt
17MINMIN 179933:47Touchdown +7
18LACLAC 259853:15Touchdown +7
19MINMIN 2514585:12Turnover on downs
20LACLAC 25221:06Turnover on downs
21MINLAC 247181:40Interception
22LACLAC 20100:07End of game

8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 93 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert40/4740530121.5
Keenan Allen1/1491004.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Joshua Kelley11121.10-8.6
Justin Herbert2115.500.7
Isaiah Spiller273.50-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Keenan Allen1820215042%13.4
Mike Williams78121117%8.2
Josh Palmer4766115%-2.1
Gerald Everett6630013%1.1
Quentin Johnston231006%-1.0
Joshua Kelley11502%-0.0
Donald Parham22424%3.7
Derius Davis11302%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nick Niemann530.001
Michael Davis800.001
Kenneth Murray610.011
Derwin James520.000
Asante Samuel600.002
Alohi Gilman320.001
Sebastian Joseph221.000
Tuli Tuipulotu301.000
Nicholas Williams120.000
Raheem Layne200.000

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kirk Cousins32/503673141.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Alexander Mattison20934.700.5
Ty Chandler3279.001.3
Kirk Cousins11010.002.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Justin Jefferson713149127%2.4
T.J. Hockenson81178023%-7.3
Jordan Addison6852017%3.7
K.J. Osborn133616%4.6
Alexander Mattison5732015%1.1
C.J. Ham11702%0.3
Brandon Powell11502%0.1
Ty Chandler12404%-0.8
Josh Oliver22414%0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Akayleb Evans740.000
Byron Murphy910.002
Jordan Hicks410.000
Josh Metellus140.000
Camryn Bynum410.001
Mekhi Blackmon410.000
Danielle Hunter311.000
Harrison Smith220.000
Ivan Pace220.000
Jonathan Bullard110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIN -1
Closing total
54
LAC moneyline
-110
MIN moneyline
-110

Vikings closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 54; the game landed 52 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
LAC 7 days · MIN 10 days
Coaches
Brandon Staley vs Kevin O'Connell