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polling · 300s tick · as of 3:26 PM ET · 1 to play · 15 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 24, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 3
It turned at Q4 0:12, 1st and 6, on Kenneth Murray — 41.4 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Chargers 28–24. Biggest swing: Q4 0:12, Chargers +41.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:12 · 1st and 6
Kenneth Murray
Chargers
(:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 87-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 9-K.Murray (31-N.Niemann) at LAC 0. Touchback.
41.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.69 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.42 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at -0.03 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chargers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Vikings at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.00 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
(:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 87-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 9-K.Murray (31-N.Niemann) at LAC 0. Touchback.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Josh Palmer's 30-yard touchdown catch with 8:11 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Josh Palmer30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin HerbertLead never changed again+728–248 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chargerscategory by categoryVikings
Chargers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.69 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 63 snaps at a 79% dropback rate against Vikings’s 78 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Vikings 6.
Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's pass rate over expected, +19.4 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 8.1 points clear of the next team along.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points. · +2.4σ from their own normal
LAC's early-down pass rate, 78.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 2.1 points clear of the next team along.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
MIN's blitz rate sent, 84.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 20.7 points clear of the next team along.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 17.1 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Chargers19.4 ptsoff script — threw more than the situation asked · +18.7 vs their 0.7 pts, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+2.39× that swing) · 63 snaps
Vikings3.0 ptsright on their number · +0.8 vs their 2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 78 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 89%
Tendencies room →Chargers78.0%leaned — passed early · +17.7 vs their 60.3%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+1.96× that swing) · 50 early downs
Vikings63.9%right on their number · +4.1 vs their 59.8%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 61 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 50%
Tendencies room →Chargers30.0%leaned — faked the run · +9.7 vs their 20.3%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Vikings34.5%inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 29.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 108%
Fourth Down room →Chargers66.7%leaned — went for it · +28.5 vs their 38.2%, and they swing ±25.0 week to week (+1.14× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Vikings50.0%right on their number · +13.1 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±27.9 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 97%
Tendencies room →Chargers38.2%inside their normal wobble · +8.4 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Vikings84.0%leaned — sent pressure · +31.5 vs their 52.5%, and they swing ±17.1 week to week (+1.84× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 31%
Tendencies room →Chargers25.5%leaned — got home · +12.0 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+1.73× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Vikings12.0%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
LAC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 19.4 pts, 18.7 points above their season mean of 0.7 pts and 2.4 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
40/47, 405 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
21.5 expected points added · +14.7% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
32/50, 367 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
1.4 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected
Receiving · LAC
18/20 for 215 yds, 0 TD
42% of team targets · 13.4 expected points added
Receiving · MIN
7/13 for 149 yds, 1 TD
27% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Keenan Allen banked 12.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan AllenWR · Alpha Receiver | 45.5 | +12.8 | 89% | 92% | 42% | 36% | 1/1, 49 yd, 1 TD · 18/20, 215 yd |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 29.3 | +5.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 40/47, 405 yd, 3 TD · 2 car, 11 yd |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 27.9 | −0.5 | 95% | 95% | 27% | 41% | 7/13, 149 yd, 1 TD |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 25.7 | −6.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 32/50, 367 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 10 yd |
| Mike WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 25.1 | +11.2 | 67% | 74% | 17% | 31% | 7/8, 121 yd, 1 TD |
| Alexander MattisonRB · Bell Cow Back | 17.5 | −12.4 | 80% | 76% | 15% | 1% | 20 car, 93 yd · 5/7, 32 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.6 | +1.0 | 61% | 66% | 15% | 31% | 4/7, 66 yd, 1 TD |
| Donald ParhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.4 | +5.5 | 52% | 40% | 4% | 1% | 2/2, 4 yd, 2 TD |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Featured Receiver | 13.8 | −5.5 | 89% | 91% | 23% | 22% | 8/11, 78 yd |
| Jordan AddisonWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.2 | −3.8 | 71% | 78% | 17% | 19% | 6/8, 52 yd |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | +2.4 | 93% | 93% | 6% | 10% | 1/3, 36 yd, 1 TD |
| Gerald EverettTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.0 | −2.5 | 58% | 56% | 13% | 2% | 6/6, 30 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.4 | +3.9 | 33% | 22% | 4% | 1% | 2/2, 4 yd, 1 TD |
| Ty ChandlerRB | 4.1 | −0.6 | 15% | 15% | 4% | 2% | 3 car, 27 yd · 1/2, 4 yd |
| Quentin JohnstonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −1.4 | 24% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 2/3, 10 yd |
| Joshua KelleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 2.7 | −7.8 | 73% | 72% | 2% | 0% | 11 car, 12 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| C.J. HamRB | 1.7 | +0.2 | 10% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Brandon PowellWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Derius DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Isaiah SpillerRB | 0.7 | −0.3 | 24% | 24% | 0% | — | 2 car, 7 yd |
| Scott MatlockRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Tre' McKittyTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | 12% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 87-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 9-K.Murray (31-N.Niemann) at LAC 0. Touchback.
Q4 0:12 · Vikings · 1st & goal at LAC 6 · gained nothing · -4.46 EP · −44.7% win probability
178 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 191 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 186. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 83 yards from the MIN 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
191 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
191 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chargers6
Vikings0Chargers7Vikings0Chargers7Vikings6Chargers7Vikings7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chargers7Vikings10How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Chargers13Vikings10Chargers14Vikings10How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a trick play, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chargers20Vikings10Chargers21Vikings10How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Chargers21Vikings16Chargers21Vikings17How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chargers21Vikings23Chargers21Vikings24How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, the receiver created it himself.
Chargers27Vikings24Chargers28Vikings24How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown away.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chargers at Vikings, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 40/47 | 405 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +21.5 |
| Keenan Allen | 1/1 | 49 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Kelley | 11 | 12 | 1.1 | 0 | −8.6 |
| Justin Herbert | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Isaiah Spiller |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 18 | 20 | 215 | 0 | 42% | +13.4 |
| Mike Williams | 7 | 8 | 121 | 1 | 17% | +8.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Niemann | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Davis | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kenneth Murray | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Derwin James |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 32/50 | 367 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +1.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_03_LAC_MIN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 54; the game landed 52 — under by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 7 |
| 3.5 |
| 0 |
| −0.3 |
| Josh Palmer | 4 | 7 | 66 | 1 | 15% | −2.1 |
| Gerald Everett | 6 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 13% | +1.1 |
| Quentin Johnston | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 6% | −1.0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2% | −0.0 |
| Donald Parham | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4% | +3.7 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Asante Samuel | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Alohi Gilman | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sebastian Joseph | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tuli Tuipulotu | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nicholas Williams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Raheem Layne | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 |
| 93 |
| 4.7 |
| 0 |
| +0.5 |
| Ty Chandler | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | +2.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 7 | 13 | 149 | 1 | 27% | +2.4 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 8 | 11 | 78 | 0 | 23% | −7.3 |
| Jordan Addison | 6 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 17% | +3.7 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 3 | 36 | 1 | 6% | +4.6 |
| Alexander Mattison | 5 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 15% | +1.1 |
| C.J. Ham | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2% | +0.3 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2% | +0.1 |
| Ty Chandler | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4% | +0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akayleb Evans | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy | 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jordan Hicks | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Metellus | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mekhi Blackmon | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danielle Hunter | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Smith | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ivan Pace | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Bullard | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
