2023 Week 3 · Mon, Sep 25, 2023 · Paycor Stadium

Los Angeles Rams

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

CIN -3 pushU 45.5 ✓Bengals closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Cincinnati Bengals 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:03, CIN +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:03LA 6 — CIN 6CIN ball · 4th & 19LA 63%

(:03) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:03CIN +17% win prob(:03) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Q2 · 3:43LA +14% win prob(3:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 12-V.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 55-L.Wilson [33-N.Scott] at LA 41. 55-L.Wilson to LA 41 for no gain (12-V.Jefferson). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q3 · 5:01LA +13% win prob(5:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 17-P.Nacua INTERCEPTED by 55-L.Wilson (21-M.Hilton) at CIN 22. 55-L.Wilson to CIN 22 for no gain.
Q3 · 8:29CIN +11% win prob(8:29) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase to LA 31 for 13 yards (4-J.Fuller).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:26LA Field goal
(8:26) 8-B.Maher 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Score after this play: LA 3 — CIN 0
Q2 · 13:00CIN Field goal
(13:00) 2-E.McPherson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Score after this play: LA 3 — CIN 3
Q2 · 9:52LA Field goal
(9:52) 8-B.Maher 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Score after this play: LA 6 — CIN 3
Q2 · 0:03CIN Field goal
(:03) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Score after this play: LA 6 — CIN 6
Q3 · 10:42LA Field goal
(10:42) 8-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Score after this play: LA 9 — CIN 6
Q3 · 5:39CIN Touchdown
(5:39) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 9 — CIN 13
Q3 · 3:14CIN Field goal
(3:14) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Score after this play: LA 9 — CIN 16
Q4 · 7:18CIN Field goal
(7:18) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Score after this play: LA 9 — CIN 19
Q4 · 1:06LA Touchdown
(1:06) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 5-T.Atwell for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LA 16 — CIN 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Bengals
Offensive plays	52	70
Total yards	292	311 (edge)
Yards per play	5.6 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	-0.13	-0.10 (edge)
Success rate	38% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	77%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	-0.13 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08	-0.01 (edge)
Third downs	1/11	5/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	14	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

18/33, 269 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-8.4 expected points added · -6.3% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

26/49, 259 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-6.4 expected points added · -12.6% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

19 att, 65 yds, 1 TD

0.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

10 att, 38 yds, 0 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

12/15 for 141 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 9.1 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Puka NacuaWR

5/7 for 72 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 25	10	37	3:34	Missed field goal
2	LA	LA 46	8	43	3:04	Field goal +3
3	CIN	CIN 25	5	13	2:27	Punt
4	LA	LA 26	4	9	1:33	Punt
5	CIN	CIN 21	12	48	6:27	Field goal +3
6	LA	LA 25	8	70	3:06	Field goal +3
7	CIN	CIN 25	8	11	2:45	Punt
8	LA	LA 36	4	8	2:18	Punt
9	CIN	CIN 11	5	13	1:03	Punt
10	LA	LA 30	1	0	0:05	Interception
11	CIN	LA 41	4	2	1:20	Punt
12	LA	LA 8	6	11	1:05	Punt
13	CIN	CIN 40	6	26	1:13	Field goal +3
14	LA	LA 25	8	42	4:23	Field goal +3
15	CIN	CIN 25	12	75	5:03	Touchdown +7
16	LA	LA 24	3	46	0:37	Interception
17	CIN	CIN 22	6	45	1:48	Field goal +3
18	LA	LA 25	5	13	2:32	Punt
19	CIN	CIN 28	10	35	5:16	Interception
20	LA	LA 20	4	-16	1:35	Punt
21	CIN	LA 40	4	5	1:33	Field goal +3
22	LA	LA 25	5	5	1:11	Punt
23	CIN	CIN 24	4	1	2:28	Punt
24	LA	LA 39	11	61	2:31	Touchdown +7
25	CIN	LA 45	4	0	1:03	End of game

9 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 75 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	18/33	269	1	2	6	-8.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kyren Williams	10	38	3.8	-2.6
Tutu Atwell	1	22	22.0	1.9
Matthew Stafford	1	7	7.0	2.5
Van Jefferson	1	4	4.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Puka Nacua	5	7	72	0	22%	1.5
Tyler Higbee	5	5	71	0	16%	3.7
Tutu Atwell	4	9	50	1	28%	-1.4
Van Jefferson	1	3	46	0	9%	-1.0
Kyren Williams	2	7	27	0	22%	-1.9
Ben Skowronek	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Ernest Jones	5	2	0.0	1
Aaron Donald	5	2	1.0	0
Cobie Durant	6	0	0.0	1
Russ Yeast	3	3	0.0	0
Michael Hoecht	1	4	0.0	0
Derion Kendrick	2	3	0.0	2
Byron Young	4	1	0.5	0
Jordan Fuller	3	1	0.0	0
Christian Rozeboom	2	1	0.0	0
Royce Freeman	1	1	0.0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	26/49	259	0	1	2	-6.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	19	65	3.4	1	0.0
Trayveon Williams	1	4	4.0	0	-0.3
Joe Burrow	3	-2	-0.7	0	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	12	15	141	33%	9.1
Tyler Boyd	5	9	39	20%	-3.8
Tanner Hudson	2	4	30	9%	-1.7
Tee Higgins	2	8	21	17%	-2.5
Mitchell Wilcox	2	3	10	7%	-0.5
Drew Sample	1	1	7	2%	-0.2
Charlie Jones	1	2	6	4%	0.1
Joe Mixon	1	2	5	4%	-0.8
Trayveon Williams	0	2	0	4%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Dax Hill	7	1	1.0	0	0
Cam Taylor-Britt	5	1	0.0	0	0
Sam Hubbard	4	1	1.0	0	0
Logan Wilson	3	1	0.0	2	2
Chidobe Awuzie	2	2	0.0	0	0
Germaine Pratt	1	1	0.0	0	0
Trey Hendrickson	2	0	2.0	0	0
B.J. Hill	2	0	1.0	0	0
Nick Scott	2	0	0.0	0	0
D.J. Reader	2	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -3
Closing total: 45.5
LA moneyline: +136
CIN moneyline: -162

Bengals closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 35 — under by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 74°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: LA 8 days · CIN 8 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Zac Taylor