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Game Center
polling · 300s tick · as of 3:25 PM ET · 1 to play · 15 final
Los Angeles Rams 16 at Cincinnati Bengals 19. Final.
Bengals -3 pushU 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 3
Cincinnati Bengals 19, Rams 16 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 0:03, 4th and 19, on Evan McPherson — 17.1 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Bengals closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Cincinnati Bengals 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 0:03, Bengals +17.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:03 · 4th and 19
Evan McPherson
Bengals
(:03) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
17.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Logan WilsonBengalsQ2 3:43(3:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 12-V.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 55-L.Wilson [33-N.Scott] at LA 41. 55-L.Wilson to LA 41 for no gain (12-V.Jefferson). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
14.1pts
Logan WilsonBengalsQ3 5:01(5:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 17-P.Nacua INTERCEPTED by 55-L.Wilson (21-M.Hilton) at CIN 22. 55-L.Wilson to CIN 22 for no gain.
13.3pts
What separated them
Red zone
Bengals won this one — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Rams at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bengals won this one — 5 of 15 on third down, against Rams at 1 of 11 on third down.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — 1 giveaway, against Rams at 2 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Bengals at 4 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Rams170 of 183 plays carry both curves
(:03) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Swing +17.1 for BengalsExpected points +1.16 for BengalsModel and market agree here.play 93
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:03CIN +17% win prob(:03) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
2nd · 3:43LA +14% win prob(3:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 12-V.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 55-L.Wilson [33-N.Scott] at LA 41. 55-L.Wilson to LA 41 for no gain (12-V.Jefferson). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
3rd · 5:01LA +13% win prob(5:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 17-P.Nacua INTERCEPTED by 55-L.Wilson (21-M.Hilton) at CIN 22. 55-L.Wilson to CIN 22 for no gain.
3rd · 8:29CIN +11% win prob(8:29) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase to LA 31 for 13 yards (4-J.Fuller).
3rd · 5:29CIN +11% win prob(5:29) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 12-V.Jefferson to CIN 30 for 46 yards (33-N.Scott).
2nd · 0:42LA +10% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at LA 34 for -9 yards (sack split by 0-B.Young and 91-K.Turner).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Joe Mixon's 14-yard rushing touchdown with 5:39 left in the 3rd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:26Brett Maher·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+33–0
2nd13:00Evan McPherson·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder B.Robbins · snap C.Adomitis+33–3
2nd9:52Brett Maher·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+36–3
2nd0:03Evan McPherson·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder B.Robbins · snap C.Adomitis+36–6
3rd10:42Brett Maher·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+39–6
3rd5:39Joe Mixon·14-yd TD run14-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+79–13
3rd3:14Evan McPherson·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder B.Robbins · snap C.Adomitis+39–16
4th7:18Evan McPherson·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder B.Robbins · snap C.Adomitis+39–19
4th1:06Tutu Atwell·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+716–19
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryBengals
Rams3–5Bengals
292Total yards311
5.6Yards per play4.4
38%Success rate33%
9%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays4
14First downs17
6Sacks taken2
2Turnovers1
The read
Bengals ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.13Rams: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.10Bengals: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.15Rams: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.13Bengals: −0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Rams: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.01Bengals: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 52 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Bengals’s 70 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Rams 4, Bengals 1.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CIN's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.5% in week 2 against 25.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 26 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Bengals25.0%
leaned — got home · +8.5 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteLA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 21.6 points above their season mean of 53.4% and 1.9 times their own 11.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Evan McPherson+17% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:03) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Q2 0:03 · Bengals · 4th & 19 at LA 34 · gained nothing · +1.16 EP · +16.9% win probability
168 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 178. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 75 yards from the CIN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
33%
Yards
601
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.1375%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.1478%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.1440%
Bengals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR6+0.18100%
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bengals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
No good10 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Rams 38
Rams3Bengals0
Field goal8 plays, from the Rams 46 to the Bengals 2
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 34
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Rams 35
The period ended8 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Rams 45
2nd quarter56 plays
Rams3Bengals3
Field goal8 plays, from the Rams 38 to the Rams 26
Rams6Bengals3
Field goal8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Bengals 5
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 36
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 36 to the Rams 44
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 11 to the Bengals 24
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 41 to the Rams 39
The period ended8 plays, from the Rams 8 to the Rams 21
Rams6Bengals6
Field goal7 plays, from the Bengals 40 to the Rams 25
3rd quarter42 plays
How the play was built
A screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Rams9Bengals6
Field goal12 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Bengals 17
Rams9Bengals12
Rams9Bengals13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Rams 14
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.2 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Bengals 30
Rams9Bengals16
Field goal7 plays, from the Bengals 22 to the Rams 30
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 34
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Intercepted9 plays, from the Bengals 32 to the Rams 37
Punt4 plays
Rams9Bengals19
Field goal4 plays, from the Rams 40 to the Rams 35
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 30
Punt5 plays
Rams15Bengals19
Rams16Bengals19
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 39 to the Bengals 1
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Ramscategory by categoryBengals
Rams3
Bengals0
