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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
New England Patriots 15 at New York Jets 10. Final.
Patriots -2.5 ✓U 35.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 3
New England Patriots 15, Jets 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:56, 4th and 3 — 12.6 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:56 · 4th and 3
Unnamed on the sheet
Jets
(1:56) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 45 for 18 yards (14-T.Montgomery).
19.6 mph wind
Patriots closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.
New England Patriots 15–10. Biggest swing: Q4 1:56, Jets +12.6% win probability on one snap. Played in 19.6 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
12.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Pharaoh BrownPatriotsQ2 11:49(11:49) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 86-P.Brown for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.4pts
Tyler ConklinPatriotsQ4 1:26(1:26) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 83-T.Conklin to NYJ 47 for 2 yards (23-K.Dugger).
11.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Patriots at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.19 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.42 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Patriots won this one — 8 of 19 on third down, against Jets at 2 of 14 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — -0.01 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.37 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Patriots172 of 187 plays carry both curves
(1:56) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 45 for 18 yards (14-T.Montgomery).
Swing +12.6 for JetsExpected points +0.92 for JetsModel and market agree here.play 171
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:56NE +13% win prob(1:56) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 45 for 18 yards (14-T.Montgomery).
4th · 1:26NE +12% win prob(1:26) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 83-T.Conklin to NYJ 47 for 2 yards (23-K.Dugger).
2nd · 11:49NYJ +9% win prob(11:49) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 86-P.Brown for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:36NYJ +9% win prob(5:36) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 18-R.Cobb. PENALTY on NE-27-M.Bryant, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at NE 9 - No Play.
4th · 2:56NE +8% win prob(2:56) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 7-J.Smith-Schuster.
1st · 14:14NE +7% win prob(14:14) 20-Bre.Hall right end to NYJ 20 for -6 yards (33-A.Jennings).
4th · 2:27
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chad Ryland's 48-yard field goal with 10:46 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:46Chad Ryland·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.CardonaLead never changed again+33–0
2nd11:49Pharaoh Brown·58-yd TD catch58-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones+710–0
2nd1:25Greg Zuerlein·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+310–3
3rd10:31Chad Ryland·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Cardona+313–3
4th2:27Matt Judon·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+215–10
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categoryJets
Patriots7–1Jets
358Total yards171
5.2Yards per play2.9
38%Success rate28%
42%Third-down rate14%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays2
17First downs11
0Sacks taken3
0Turnovers0
The read
Patriots ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jets, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Patriots: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.37Jets: −0.37 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.19Patriots: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.42Jets: −0.42 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Patriots: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.28Jets: −0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 69 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against Jets’s 60 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 2, Jets 1.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.37.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NE's early-down pass rate, 32.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 3.6 points clear of the next team along.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.5-swing turn from week 2.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
NE's pass rate over expected, −16.3 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 6.9 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 2.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
NE's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 2 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 15 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Jets16.7%
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteNE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 32.0%, 23.7 points below their season mean of 55.7% and 2.3 times their own 10.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
71Michael OnwenuG · Every snap100%72 snaps
77Trenton BrownT · Every snap100%72 snaps
60David AndrewsC · Every snap100%72 snaps
10Mac JonesQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
59Vederian LoweT · Every snap100%72 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Full-time86%62 snaps
1DeVante ParkerWR · Heavy rotation76%55 snaps
7JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Heavy rotation74%53 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Heavy rotation65%47 snaps
69Cole StrangeG · Heavy rotation61%44 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Heavy rotation56%40 snaps
88Mike GesickiTE · Rotational47%34 snaps
68Atonio MafiG · Rotational39%28 snaps
15Ezekiel ElliottRB · Rotational38%27 snaps
86Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational35%25 snaps
81Demario DouglasWR · Situational24%17 snaps
Inactive · 5
Jonathan JonesCBWill GrierQBTyrone WheatleyTSidy SowTKayshon BoutteWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Baringer punts−15% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:56) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 45 for 18 yards (14-T.Montgomery).
Q4 1:56 · Patriots · 4th & 3 at NE 23 · gained nothing · -0.92 EP · −14.9% win probability
170 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 182. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 87 yards from the NYJ 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
-0.16
Success rate
29%
Yards
529
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.4077%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.0454%
Patriots1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR16+0.1113%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.3433%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.3050%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 26
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Patriots3Jets0
Field goal7 plays, from the Patriots 42 to the Jets 29
Punt9 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 43
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 36 to the Jets 44
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 6 to the Jets 12
Drive ended7 plays, from the Patriots 43 to the Jets 20
2nd quarter1 plays
1st quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
2nd quarter48 plays
No good1 play
Punt4 plays
Patriots9Jets0
Patriots10Jets0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Patriots 42
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Jets 38
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 8 to the Patriots 25
Patriots10Jets3
Field goal12 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Patriots 34
The period ended13 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Jets 39
3rd quarter39 plays
Patriots13Jets3
Field goal11 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Jets 33
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Jets 45
Punt7 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 49 to the Patriots 48
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 32
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter60 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Jets 32
The period ended8 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Jets 45
Patriots13Jets9
Patriots13Jets10
Touchdown16 plays, from the Jets 13 to the Patriots 1
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 25 to midfield
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Patriots15Jets10
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 16 to the Patriots 23
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Turnover on downs4 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 46 to the Jets 39
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.9 seconds
The period ended5 plays, from the Jets 17 to the Jets 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
