For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 24, 2023 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 3
It turned at Q4 1:56, 4th and 3 — 12.6 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 15–10. Biggest swing: Q4 1:56, Jets +12.6% win probability on one snap. Played in 19.6 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:56 · 4th and 3
Unnamed on the sheet
Jets
(1:56) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 45 for 18 yards (14-T.Montgomery).
12.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Patriots at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.19 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.42 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Patriots won this one — 8 of 19 on third down, against Jets at 2 of 14 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — -0.01 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.37 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(1:56) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 45 for 18 yards (14-T.Montgomery).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Chad Ryland's 48-yard field goal with 10:46 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Chad Ryland48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.CardonaLead never changed again+33–06 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryJets
Patriots ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jets, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 69 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against Jets’s 60 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 2, Jets 1.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.37.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's early-down pass rate, 32.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 3.6 points clear of the next team along.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points. · −2.3σ from their own normal
NE's pass rate over expected, −16.3 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 6.9 points clear of the next team along.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · −2.0σ from their own normal
NE's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 2 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 15 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.0 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-16.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −13.0 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.96× that swing) · 69 snaps
Jets-7.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their -1.1 pts, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 97%
Tendencies room →Patriots32.0%off script — ran early · −23.7 vs their 55.7%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−2.33× that swing) · 50 early downs
Jets56.8%right on their number · −3.9 vs their 60.8%, and they swing ±14.2 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 41%
Tendencies room →Patriots10.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Jets17.9%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 98%
Fourth Down room →Patriots0.0%leaned — took the kick · −31.2 vs their 31.2%, and they swing ±24.0 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Jets20.0%right on their number · −11.7 vs their 31.7%, and they swing ±25.9 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 58%
Tendencies room →Patriots48.7%leaned — sent pressure · +15.8 vs their 33.0%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+1.64× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Jets13.3%right on their number · −2.8 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 38%
Tendencies room →Patriots17.9%inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Jets16.7%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 32.0%, 23.7 points below their season mean of 55.7% and 2.3 times their own 10.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New York Jets
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
15/29, 201 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
5.4 expected points added · -4.9% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
18/36, 157 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-15.2 expected points added · -5.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Pharaoh Brown banked 11.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational Receiver | 15.1 | +11.6 | 35% | 13% | 7% | 8% | 2/2, 71 yd, 1 TD |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 13.3 | +2.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/29, 201 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 13 yd |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.8 | −1.6 | 97% | 98% | 32% | 31% | 5/9, 48 yd |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB · Committee Back | 9.7 | +0.4 | 38% | 27% | 4% | 0% | 16 car, 80 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Featured Receiver | 8.6 | +1.5 | 56% | 73% | 19% | 18% | 4/5, 46 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 7.2 | −6.6 | 65% | 73% | 15% | 0% | 19 car, 59 yd · 1/4, 3 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.9 | −0.4 | 97% | 98% | 18% | 39% | 3/5, 39 yd |
| Zach WilsonQB · Starter QB | 6.4 | −2.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/36, 157 yd · 1 car, 1 yd |
| Nick BawdenRB | 6.1 | +2.4 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dalvin CookRB · Committee Back | 5.9 | −1.3 | 25% | 20% | 11% | 0% | 8 car, 18 yd · 3/3, 11 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | −1.1 | 76% | 75% | 18% | 24% | 3/5, 26 yd |
| DeVante ParkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −1.3 | 76% | 93% | 11% | 17% | 2/3, 19 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Featured Receiver | 3.7 | −2.8 | 86% | 73% | 19% | 11% | 2/5, 17 yd |
| Breece HallRB · Committee Back | 3.7 | −4.5 | 49% | 40% | 7% | 1% | 12 car, 18 yd · 1/2, 9 yd |
| Demario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −1.6 | 24% | 40% | 11% | 26% | 1 car, 5 yd · 1/3, 15 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | +1.9 | 47% | 47% | 4% | 5% | 1/1, 18 yd |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −0.3 | 73% | 83% | 7% | 4% | 1/2, 12 yd |
| C.J. UzomahTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.4 | 44% | 33% | 4% | 4% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −2.7 | 74% | 60% | 11% | 14% | 1/3, 5 yd |
| Michael CarterRB | 1.3 | +0.1 | 24% | 35% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Ty MontgomeryWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Xavier GipsonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:56) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 45 for 18 yards (14-T.Montgomery).
Q4 1:56 · Patriots · 4th & 3 at NE 23 · gained nothing · -0.92 EP · −14.9% win probability
170 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 187 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 182. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 87 yards from the NYJ 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Patriots3
Jets0Patriots9Jets0Patriots10Jets0Patriots10Jets3Patriots13Jets3Patriots13Jets9Patriots13Jets10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Patriots15Jets10How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Jets, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 15/29 | 201 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 16 | 80 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 19 | 59 | 3.1 | 0 | −5.4 |
| Mac Jones |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 2 | 71 | 1 | 7% | +5.9 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Dugger | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Judon |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 18/36 | 157 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −15.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_03_NE_NYJ
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 35.5; the game landed 25 — under by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
Wind at 19.6 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 4 |
| 13 |
| 3.3 |
| 0 |
| −0.6 |
| Demario Douglas | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| 19% |
| +3.2 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 11% | +1.0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 4% | +2.5 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 19% | −1.0 |
| Demario Douglas | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 11% | +0.1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11% | −1.0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15% | −3.7 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Bryant | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Adrian Phillips | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Gonzalez | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Barmore | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Breece Hall | 12 | 18 | 1.5 | 0 | −4.2 |
| Zach Wilson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Nick Bawden | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | +0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 5 | 9 | 48 | 0 | 32% | −3.6 |
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 18% | +1.9 |
| Tyler Conklin | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 18% | −2.6 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 7% | +0.4 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 11% | −0.3 |
| Breece Hall | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | −0.2 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +1.1 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Mosley | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Adrian Amos | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quincy Williams | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reed | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Gardner | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Johnson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Franklin-Myers | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamien Sherwood | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
