2023 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 24, 2023 · MetLife Stadium
New England PatriotsWinner
15
New York Jets
10
New England Patriots 15–10. Biggest swing: Q4 1:56, NE +13% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(1:56) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 45 for 18 yards (14-T.Montgomery).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 1:56NE +13% win prob(1:56) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 45 for 18 yards (14-T.Montgomery).
- Q4 · 1:26NE +12% win prob(1:26) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 83-T.Conklin to NYJ 47 for 2 yards (23-K.Dugger).
- Q2 · 11:49NYJ +9% win prob(11:49) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 86-P.Brown for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q4 · 5:36NYJ +9% win prob(5:36) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 18-R.Cobb. PENALTY on NE-27-M.Bryant, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at NE 9 - No Play.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 10:46NE Field goal
(10:46) 37-C.Ryland 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 3 — NYJ 0 - Q2 · 11:49NE Touchdown
(11:49) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 86-P.Brown for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 10 — NYJ 0 - Q2 · 1:25NYJ Field goal
(1:25) 9-G.Zuerlein 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: NE 10 — NYJ 3 - Q3 · 10:31NE Field goal
(10:31) 37-C.Ryland 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 13 — NYJ 3 - Q4 · 5:29NYJ Touchdown
(5:29) 48-N.Bawden up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 13 — NYJ 10 - Q4 · 2:27NE Safety
(2:27) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (9-M.Judon).
Score after this play: NE 15 — NYJ 10
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Patriots | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 69 | 60 |
| Total yards | 358 (edge) | 171 |
| Yards per play | 5.2 (edge) | 2.9 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.01 (edge) | -0.37 |
| Success rate | 38% (edge) | 28% |
| Dropback rate | 43% | 65% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.19 (edge) | -0.42 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.16 (edge) | -0.28 |
| Third downs | 8/19 (edge) | 2/14 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 (edge) | 2 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 17 (edge) | 11 |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 3 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.37.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · NE
15/29, 201 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
5.4 expected points added · -4.9% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
18/36, 157 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-15.2 expected points added · -5.8% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 5 | -5 | 1:42 | Punt | |
| 2 | NE | NE 42 | 7 | 29 | 2:37 | Field goal +3 | |
| 3 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 8 | 10 | 3:36 | Punt | |
| 4 | NE | NE 36 | 5 | 19 | 2:05 | Punt | |
| 5 | NYJ | NYJ 6 | 4 | 6 | 1:58 | Punt | |
| 6 | NE | NE 43 | 8 | 37 | 3:11 | Missed field goal | |
| 7 | NYJ | NYJ 38 | 4 | -12 | 1:04 | Punt | |
| 8 | NE | NE 22 | 5 | 78 | 2:09 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 9 | NYJ | NYJ 31 | 5 | 7 | 1:42 | Punt | |
| 10 | NE | NE 8 | 7 | 17 | 2:27 | Punt | |
| 11 | NYJ | NYJ 33 | 10 | 33 | 6:08 | Field goal +3 | |
| 12 | NE | NE 25 | 9 | 36 | 1:21 | Missed field goal | |
| 13 | NE | NE 25 | 11 | 42 | 4:34 | Field goal +3 | |
| 14 | NYJ | NYJ 27 | 7 | 18 | 3:00 | Punt | |
| 15 | NE | NE 20 | 4 | 12 | 2:52 | Punt | |
| 16 | NYJ | NYJ 49 | 4 | 3 | 1:37 | Punt | |
| 17 | NE | NE 20 | 7 | 17 | 2:50 | Punt | |
| 18 | NYJ | NYJ 31 | 4 | 1 | 0:54 | Punt | |
| 19 | NE | NE 23 | 7 | 32 | 3:27 | Punt | |
| 20 | NYJ | NYJ 13 | 14 | 84 | 5:22 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 21 | NE | NE 25 | 7 | 25 | 2:40 | Punt | |
| 22 | NYJ | NYJ 10 | 3 | -5 | 0:25 | Safety | |
| 23 | NE | NE 16 | 5 | 7 | 0:36 | Punt | |
| 24 | NYJ | NYJ 45 | 4 | 2 | 0:24 | Turnover on downs | |
| 25 | NE | NYJ 46 | 4 | 7 | 1:03 | Punt | |
| 26 | NYJ | NYJ 17 | 3 | 29 | 0:16 | End of game |
5 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 84 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
New England Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 15/29 | 201 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.4 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 16 | 80 | 5.0 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 19 | 59 | 3.1 | 0 | -5.4 |
| Mac Jones | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Demario Douglas | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 2 | 71 | 1 | 7% | 5.9 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 19% | 3.2 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 11% | 1.0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 4% | 2.5 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 19% | -1.0 |
| Demario Douglas | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 11% | 0.1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | -0.3 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11% | -1.0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15% | -3.7 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Dugger | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Judon | 2 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Bryant | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Adrian Phillips | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Gonzalez | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Barmore | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
New York Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 18/36 | 157 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -15.2 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 | -2.2 |
| Breece Hall | 12 | 18 | 1.5 | 0 | -4.2 |
| Zach Wilson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Nick Bawden | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.6 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 5 | 9 | 48 | 0 | 32% | -3.6 |
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 18% | 1.9 |
| Tyler Conklin | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 18% | -2.6 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 7% | 0.4 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 11% | -0.3 |
| Breece Hall | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | -0.2 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | 1.1 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | -1.1 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Mosley | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Adrian Amos | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quincy Williams | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reed | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Gardner | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Johnson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Franklin-Myers | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamien Sherwood | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NE -2.5
- Closing total
- 35.5
- NE moneyline
- -142
- NYJ moneyline
- +120
Patriots closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 35.5; the game landed 25 — under by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- MetLife Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · fieldturf
- Kickoff weather
- 64°F, wind 14 mph
- Referee
- Bill Vinovich
- Rest
- NE 7 days · NYJ 7 days
- Coaches
- Bill Belichick vs Robert Saleh
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.