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5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Saints172 of 182 plays carry both curves
(1:10) 19-B.Grupe 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Swing +42.6 for PackersExpected points +1.94 for PackersThe model had Packers 9 points higher than the market did.play 176
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:10NO +43% win prob(1:10) 19-B.Grupe 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
4th · 2:59GB +19% win prob(2:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:23GB +13% win prob(2:23) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short left to 12-C.Olave to GB 32 for 10 yards (35-C.Ballentine).
4th · 4:13GB +12% win prob(4:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 11-J.Reed to NO 15 for 30 yards (1-A.Taylor).
1st · 14:31NO +12% win prob(14:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at NO 16 for -9 yards (97-K.Clark).
2nd · 10:47NO +11% win prob(10:47) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to NO 24, Center-42-M.Orzech. 22-R.Shaheed for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:33
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Romeo Doubs's 8-yard touchdown catch with 2:59 left in the 4th put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th2:59Romeo Doubs·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan LoveLead never changed again+717–18
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by categoryPackers
Saints2–7Packers
252Total yards346
4.2Yards per play5.1
43%Success rate41%
29%Third-down rate47%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays6
14First downs19
4Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Packers ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Saints, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Saints: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.01Packers: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Saints: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.01Packers: −0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Saints: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.01Packers: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 60 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Packers’s 68 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Saints 2, Packers 4.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
GB's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, was the highest of the 22 team-games charted in week 3 — 25.0 points clear of the next team along.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.9 points.
GB's play-action rate turned over: 33.3% in week 2 against 12.0% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
NO's sack or hit rate turned over: 20.0% in week 2 against 6.0% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.2 vs their 11.2%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Packers15.8%
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteGB's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 58.3 points above their season mean of 41.7% and 2.3 times their own 25.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Blake Grupe−36% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:10) 19-B.Grupe 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Q4 1:10 · Saints · 4th & 6 at GB 28 · gained nothing · -1.94 EP · −35.6% win probability
170 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 82 yards from the NO 11 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
38%
Yards
594
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.0575%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.1084%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.2554%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.0540%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints0 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Packers 48 to the Saints 44
Saints6Packers0
Saints7Packers0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 44 to the Packers 8
Punt10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Saints 41
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 10 to the Saints 25
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt2 plays
Saints13Packers0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Packers 46
Saints14Packers0
Punt14 plays, from the Packers 18 to the Saints 27
Saints17Packers0
Field goal17 plays, from the Saints 11 to the Packers 7
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 26
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 38 to midfield
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Packers 11
Punt9 plays, from the Saints 44 to the Packers 37
The period ended12 plays, from the Packers 5 to the Saints 16
4th quarter61 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 13 to the Saints 21
Saints17Packers3
Field goal7 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Saints 20
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 19 to the Saints 39
Saints17Packers9
Saints17Packers11
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Saints 1
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 17 to the Saints 24
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Saints17Packers17
Saints17Packers18
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Saints 8
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Packers 28
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -1.5
Closing total
41.5
Saints moneyline
-125
Packers moneyline
+105
Saints closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 35 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 70°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 10 mph out of the south-east; overcast.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Saints 6 days · Packers 7 days
Coaches
Dennis Allen vs Matt LaFleur
GB +11% win prob
(2:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep right to 12-C.Olave pushed ob at GB 42 for 28 yards (35-C.Ballentine).
1st · 10:52NO +8% win prob(10:52) 31-Em.Wilson FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 48, recovered by GB-10-J.Love at GB 46. 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 13-D.Wicks.
