2023 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 24, 2023 · Lambeau Field

New Orleans Saints

Green Bay PackersWinner

NO -1.5 upsetU 41.5 ✓Saints closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Green Bay Packers 18–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:10, NO +43% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:10NO 17 — GB 18NO ball · 4th & 6NO 56%

(1:10) 19-B.Grupe 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:10NO +43% win prob(1:10) 19-B.Grupe 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Q4 · 2:59GB +19% win prob(2:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:23GB +13% win prob(2:23) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short left to 12-C.Olave to GB 32 for 10 yards (35-C.Ballentine).
Q4 · 4:13GB +12% win prob(4:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 11-J.Reed to NO 15 for 30 yards (1-A.Taylor).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:44NO Touchdown
(6:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 80-J.Graham for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 7 — GB 0
Q2 · 10:47NO Touchdown
(10:47) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to NO 24, Center-42-M.Orzech. 22-R.Shaheed for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 14 — GB 0
Q2 · 0:10NO Field goal
(:10) 19-B.Grupe 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 17 — GB 0
Q4 · 11:04GB Field goal
(11:04) 17-A.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Score after this play: NO 17 — GB 3
Q4 · 7:02GB Touchdown
(7:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: NO 17 — GB 11
Q4 · 2:59GB Touchdown
(2:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 17 — GB 18

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Packers
Offensive plays	60	68
Total yards	252	346 (edge)
Yards per play	4.2	5.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.06	-0.01 (edge)
Success rate	43% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	63%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06	-0.01 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04	-0.01 (edge)
Third downs	4/14	8/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

22/44, 259 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-1.9 expected points added · -7.6% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Derek CarrQB

13/18, 103 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

0.1 expected points added · +9.2% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

9 att, 39 yds, 1 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Kendre MillerRB

9 att, 34 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

8/11 for 104 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Romeo DoubsWR

5/12 for 73 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · -0.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	5	-9	1:19	Punt
2	GB	GB 48	4	23	2:57	Turnover on downs
3	NO	NO 44	10	41	4:04	Touchdown +7
4	GB	GB 25	9	32	3:28	Punt
5	NO	NO 10	7	17	3:54	Punt
6	GB	GB 26	7	20	3:48	Defensive touchdown
7	GB	GB 18	12	41	6:00	Punt
8	NO	NO 11	14	82	4:24	Field goal +3
9	GB	GB 25	2	0	0:06	End of half
10	GB	GB 25	4	1	1:43	Interception
11	NO	NO 38	6	5	3:00	Punt
12	GB	GB 10	4	6	1:25	Punt
13	NO	NO 44	7	19	2:37	Punt
14	GB	GB 5	12	82	6:17	Turnover on downs
15	NO	NO 13	4	8	2:08	Punt
16	GB	GB 34	7	46	1:50	Field goal +3
17	NO	NO 19	7	30	2:33	Punt
18	GB	GB 20	8	15	1:29	Touchdown +8
19	NO	NO 17	5	12	1:35	Punt
20	GB	GB 20	10	80	2:27	Touchdown +7
21	NO	NO 25	9	47	1:51	Missed field goal
22	GB	GB 36	3	0	1:05	End of game

5 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 82 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	13/18	103	1	0	3	0.1
Jameis Winston	10/16	101	0	0	1	-2.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kendre Miller	9	34	3.8	0.9
Tony Jones	8	31	3.9	0.2
Taysom Hill	4	12	3.0	-1.3
Rashid Shaheed	1	0	0.0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Olave	8	11	104	0	32%	7.2
Michael Thomas	6	9	50	0	26%	-1.0
Tony Jones	4	4	21	0	12%	0.2
Juwan Johnson	2	4	12	0	12%	-1.8
Taysom Hill	1	1	9	0	3%	0.6
Jimmy Graham	1	1	8	1	3%	2.7
Kendre Miller	1	1	0	0	3%	-0.9
Rashid Shaheed	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.8
Keith Kirkwood	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Pete Werner	5	4	0.0	0
Marshon Lattimore	4	3	0.0	1
Alontae Taylor	5	0	1.0	5
Carl Granderson	2	2	0.0	0
Jordan Howden	1	3	0.0	0
Isaiah Foskey	3	1	0.0	0
Isaac Yiadom	1	3	0.0	4
Demario Davis	1	2	0.0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	1	2	0.0	1
Malcolm Roach	1	1	0.0	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jordan Love	22/44	259	1	1	1	-1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jordan Love	9	39	4.3	1	4.1
A.J. Dillon	11	33	3.0	0	-1.6
Keisean Nixon	1	11	11.0	0	0.5
Patrick Taylor	3	6	2.0	0	-1.2
Emanuel Wilson	2	6	3.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Romeo Doubs	5	12	73	1	28%	-0.4
Jayden Reed	3	7	63	0	16%	4.1
Luke Musgrave	6	8	49	0	19%	1.5
Dontayvion Wicks	4	6	45	0	14%	-0.3
Patrick Taylor	3	4	23	0	9%	-1.1
Emanuel Wilson	1	1	6	0	2%	0.3
Samori Toure	0	3	0	0	7%	-0.9
Malik Heath	0	2	0	0	5%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Quay Walker	3	4	0.0	0
Rudy Ford	6	1	0.0	2
Darnell Savage	5	1	0.0	0
Isaiah McDuffie	4	1	0.0	0
Corey Ballentine	4	0	0.0	1
Kingsley Enagbare	3	1	0.0	0
Kenny Clark	3	1	1.0	0
Keisean Nixon	3	0	0.0	1
Rashan Gary	3	0	3.0	0
Devonte Wyatt	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -1.5
Closing total: 41.5
NO moneyline: -125
GB moneyline: +105

Saints closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 35 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 68°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: NO 6 days · GB 7 days
Coaches: Dennis Allen vs Matt LaFleur