For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending.mdto eligible URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown.
2023 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 24, 2023 · Lambeau Field
17
18
Green Bay Packers 18–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:10, NO +43% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(1:10) 19-B.Grupe 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
How the points landed
(6:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 80-J.Graham for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 7 — GB 0(10:47) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to NO 24, Center-42-M.Orzech. 22-R.Shaheed for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 14 — GB 0(:10) 19-B.Grupe 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 17 — GB 0(11:04) 17-A.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Score after this play: NO 17 — GB 3(7:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: NO 17 — GB 11(2:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 17 — GB 18Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Saints | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 60 | 68 |
| Total yards | 252 | 346 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.2 | 5.1 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.06 | -0.01 (edge) |
| Success rate | 43% (edge) | 41% |
| Dropback rate | 63% | 74% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.06 | -0.01 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.04 | -0.01 (edge) |
| Third downs | 4/14 | 8/17 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 | 6 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 14 | 19 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
22/44, 259 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-1.9 expected points added · -7.6% completion over expected
Passing · NO
13/18, 103 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
0.1 expected points added · +9.2% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | NO 25 | 5 | -9 | 1:19 | Punt | |
| 2 | GB | GB 48 | 4 | 23 | 2:57 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | NO | NO 44 | 10 | 41 | 4:04 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 4 | GB | GB 25 | 9 | 32 | 3:28 | Punt | |
| 5 | NO | NO 10 | 7 | 17 | 3:54 | Punt | |
| 6 | GB | GB 26 | 7 | 20 | 3:48 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 7 | GB | GB 18 | 12 | 41 | 6:00 | Punt | |
| 8 | NO | NO 11 | 14 | 82 | 4:24 | Field goal +3 | |
| 9 | GB | GB 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:06 | End of half | |
| 10 | GB | GB 25 | 4 | 1 | 1:43 | Interception | |
| 11 | NO | NO 38 | 6 | 5 | 3:00 | Punt | |
| 12 | GB | GB 10 | 4 | 6 | 1:25 | Punt | |
| 13 | NO | NO 44 | 7 | 19 | 2:37 | Punt | |
| 14 | GB | GB 5 | 12 | 82 | 6:17 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | NO | NO 13 | 4 | 8 | 2:08 | Punt | |
| 16 | GB | GB 34 | 7 | 46 | 1:50 | Field goal +3 | |
| 17 | NO | NO 19 | 7 | 30 | 2:33 | Punt | |
| 18 | GB | GB 20 | 8 | 15 | 1:29 | Touchdown +8 | |
| 19 | NO | NO 17 | 5 | 12 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 20 | GB | GB 20 | 10 | 80 | 2:27 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 21 | NO | NO 25 | 9 | 47 | 1:51 | Missed field goal | |
| 22 | GB | GB 36 | 3 | 0 | 1:05 | End of game |
5 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 82 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a field goal.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 13/18 | 103 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.1 |
| Jameis Winston | 10/16 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendre Miller | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Tony Jones | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Taysom Hill | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 8 | 11 | 104 | 0 | 32% | 7.2 |
| Michael Thomas | 6 | 9 | 50 | 0 | 26% | -1.0 |
| Tony Jones | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 12% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Werner | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshon Lattimore | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alontae Taylor | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 5 |
| Carl Granderson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 22/44 | 259 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 35 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
| 0.2 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 12% | -1.8 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | 0.6 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 3% | 2.7 |
| Kendre Miller | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.9 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -1.8 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.8 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jordan Howden | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Foskey | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Yiadom | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Demario Davis | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malcolm Roach | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4.1 |
| A.J. Dillon | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 | -1.6 |
| Keisean Nixon | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Patrick Taylor | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 5 | 12 | 73 | 1 | 28% | -0.4 |
| Jayden Reed | 3 | 7 | 63 | 0 | 16% | 4.1 |
| Luke Musgrave | 6 | 8 | 49 | 0 | 19% | 1.5 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 | 14% | -0.3 |
| Patrick Taylor | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 9% | -1.1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2% | 0.3 |
| Samori Toure | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7% | -0.9 |
| Malik Heath | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | -2.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quay Walker | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rudy Ford | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Darnell Savage | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McDuffie | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Ballentine | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kingsley Enagbare | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Clark | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keisean Nixon | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rashan Gary | 3 | 0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devonte Wyatt | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
