For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Giants164 of 174 plays carry both curves
(13:48) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 19-D.Samuel pushed ob at NYG 47 for 30 yards (29-X.McKinney).
Swing +9.0 for 49ersExpected points +3.73 for 49ersThe model had Giants 24 points higher than the market did.play 46
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 13:48SF +9% win prob(13:48) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 19-D.Samuel pushed ob at NYG 47 for 30 yards (29-X.McKinney).
1st · 12:16NYG +7% win prob(12:16) 13-B.Purdy sacked at NYG 45 for -4 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux).
1st · 11:32SF +7% win prob(11:32) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 15-J.Jennings to NYG 21 for 24 yards (37-T.Hawkins).
3rd · 10:06SF +5% win prob(10:06) 31-M.Breida right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:23SF +5% win prob(3:23) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
2nd · 10:17SF +5% win prob(10:17) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to NYG 14 for 17 yards (99-L.Williams).
1st · 5:25SF +5% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ronnie Bell's 9-yard touchdown catch with 7:53 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:47Jake Moody·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+30–3
1st3:23Graham Gano·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+33–3
49ers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.23Giants: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.1949ers: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.27Giants: −0.27 expected points added per play
+0.4249ers: +0.42 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Giants: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.0749ers: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 47 snaps at a 79% dropback rate against 49ers’s 75 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Giants 1, 49ers 6.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's play-action rate turned over: 48.9% in week 2 against 13.5% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 3.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
SF's play-action rate turned over: 7.7% in week 2 against 25.6% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
49ers16.2%
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteSF's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 37.8%, 16.9 points above their season mean of 20.9% and 1.6 times their own 10.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Purdy pass+13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:32) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 15-J.Jennings to NYG 21 for 24 yards (37-T.Hawkins).
Q1 11:32 · 49ers · 3rd & 8 at NYG 45 · gained 24 · +2.91 EP · +12.9% win probability
162 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 73 yards from the SF 27 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
40%
Yards
591
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.3462%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.3477%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR21+0.0848%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR17+0.0047%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.1488%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.2838%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Giants049ers3
Field goal16 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Giants 11
Giants349ers3
Field goal13 plays, from the Giants 25 to the 49ers 26
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to midfield
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Giants 4 to the Giants 12
Giants349ers9
Giants349ers10
Touchdown14 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the Giants 9
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 33
Giants349ers16
Giants349ers17
Touchdown14 plays, from the 49ers 27 to the Giants 4
Giants649ers17
Field goal10 plays, from the Giants 25 to the 49ers 38
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 43
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 4 to the 49ers 7
Giants1249ers17
Touchdown4 plays, from the 49ers 37 to the 49ers 8
Giants1249ers20
Field goal14 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Giants 3
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 19 to the Giants 21
The period ended4 plays, from the 49ers 39 to the 49ers 48
4th quarter43 plays
Giants1249ers23
Field goal5 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Giants 18
Punt6 plays
Giants1249ers29
Giants1249ers30
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Giants 27
Intercepted7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the 49ers 43
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 48 to the Giants 44
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 5 to the Giants 9
The period ended5 plays, from the 49ers 49 to the Giants 40
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -10.5
Closing total
43.5
Giants moneyline
+400
49ers moneyline
-535
49ers closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 42 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 77°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Giants 4 days · 49ers 4 days
Coaches
Brian Daboll vs Kyle Shanahan
(5:25) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 23-G.Brightwell to SF 30 for 18 yards (57-D.Greenlaw).
2nd · 7:53SF +4% win prob(7:53) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 10-R.Bell for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-53-O.Ximines, Defensive Offside, declined.
