For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2023 Week 3 · Mon, Sep 25, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
EaglesPhiladelphia25
BY 14final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay11
Philadelphia Eagles 25 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11. Final.
Eagles -6 ✓U 44 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 3
Philadelphia Eagles 25, Buccaneers 11 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 9:14, 4th and 1, on Kenneth Gainwell — 10.9 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:14 · 4th and 1
Kenneth Gainwell
Buccaneers
(9:14) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell up the middle to TB 15 for -1 yards (23-R.Neal, 31-A.Winfield).
Eagles closed -6 and covered, winning by 14.
Philadelphia Eagles 25–11. Biggest swing: Q1 9:14, Buccaneers +10.9% win probability on one snap.
10.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Olamide ZaccheausEaglesQ2 3:41(3:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 13-O.Zaccheaus for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-G.Gaines].
7.7pts
Devin WhiteBuccaneersQ2 0:48(:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 0-D.Swift INTERCEPTED by 45-D.White at TB 17. 45-D.White ran ob at TB 43 for 26 yards (1-J.Hurts).
9.4pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.42 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 3 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.20 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Eagles150 of 159 plays carry both curves
(9:14) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell up the middle to TB 15 for -1 yards (23-R.Neal, 31-A.Winfield).
Swing +10.9 for BuccaneersExpected points +4.09 for BuccaneersThe model had Buccaneers 24 points higher than the market did.play 16
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:14PHI +11% win prob(9:14) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell up the middle to TB 15 for -1 yards (23-R.Neal, 31-A.Winfield).
2nd · 0:48PHI +9% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 0-D.Swift INTERCEPTED by 45-D.White at TB 17. 45-D.White ran ob at TB 43 for 26 yards (1-J.Hurts).
2nd · 3:41TB +8% win prob(3:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 13-O.Zaccheaus for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-G.Gaines].
1st · 6:40PHI +6% win prob(6:40) 5-J.Camarda punts 60 yards to PHI 4, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at TB 44 for 52 yards (44-S.Tucker).
2nd · 10:59TB +6% win prob(10:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 14-C.Godwin to PHI 28 for 18 yards (32-R.Blankenship).
2nd · 7:37TB +5% win prob(7:37) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 34 for 13 yards (23-R.Neal).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Olamide Zaccheaus's 34-yard touchdown catch with 3:41 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:10Jake Elliott·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap R.Lovato+33–0
2nd8:37Chase McLaughlin·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+33–3
Eagles ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Eagles: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.20Buccaneers: −0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.08Eagles: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.08Buccaneers: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.11Eagles: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.42Buccaneers: −0.42 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 78 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 45 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 7, Buccaneers 2.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's pass rate over expected turned over: −13.3 pts in week 2 against +3.5 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
78 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Buccaneers10.0%
right on their number · −3.2 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NotePHI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 12.5%, 9.4 points below their season mean of 21.9% and 1.2 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
68Jordan MailataT · Every snap100%80 snaps
51Cam JurgensG · Every snap100%80 snaps
1Jalen HurtsQB · Every snap100%80 snaps
62Jason KelceC · Every snap100%80 snaps
65Lane JohnsonT · Every snap100%80 snaps
6DeVonta SmithWR · Every snap99%79 snaps
88Dallas GoedertTE · Full-time93%74 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Full-time83%66 snaps
69Landon DickersonG · Heavy rotation69%55 snaps
13Olamide ZaccheausWR · Heavy rotation55%44 snaps
0D'Andre SwiftRB · Heavy rotation54%43 snaps
89Jack StollTE · Heavy rotation51%41 snaps
14Kenneth GainwellRB · Rotational46%37 snaps
78Iosua OpetaG · Rotational31%25 snaps
81Grant CalcaterraTE · Situational15%12 snaps
18Britain CoveyWR · Situational5%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Mario GoodrichCBMoro OjomoDTTyler SteenGTanner McKeeQBBoston ScottRBAlbert OkwuegbunamTEQuez WatkinsWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass−17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 0-D.Swift INTERCEPTED by 45-D.White at TB 17. 45-D.White ran ob at TB 43 for 26 yards (1-J.Hurts).
Q2 0:48 · Eagles · 1st & 10 at TB 22 · gained nothing · -5.13 EP · −17.3% win probability
148 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 159 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 84 yards from the PHI 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
159 of 159 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
159
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
45%
Yards
648
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.3658%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.0674%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.0342%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11-0.7027%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.5530%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 41
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Buccaneers 14
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Buccaneers 36
Eagles3Buccaneers0
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 44 to the Buccaneers 13
Punt5 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Eagles 19 to the Eagles 41
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt3 plays
Eagles3Buccaneers3
Field goal14 plays, from the Buccaneers 16 to the Eagles 15
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.1 seconds
Eagles9Buccaneers3
Eagles10Buccaneers3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Buccaneers 29
Intercepted4 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 27
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Buccaneers 22
The period ended3 plays
Eagles13Buccaneers3
Field goal8 plays, from the Buccaneers 36 to the Buccaneers 20
3rd quarter38 plays
Eagles19Buccaneers3
Eagles20Buccaneers3
Touchdown16 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Buccaneers 1
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 39
Intercepted6 plays, from the Eagles 13 to the Buccaneers 41
Eagles22Buccaneers3
The period ended8 plays, from the Eagles 37 to the Buccaneers 21
4th quarter33 plays
Eagles25Buccaneers3
Field goal4 plays, from the Buccaneers 6 to the Buccaneers 2
Eagles25Buccaneers9
Eagles25Buccaneers11
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Eagles 1
The period ended18 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Buccaneers 11
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -6
Closing total
44
Eagles moneyline
-258
Buccaneers moneyline
+210
Eagles closed -6 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 44; the game landed 36 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 79°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 5 mph out of the east; 0.02 in of precipitation; partly cloudy.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Eagles 11 days · Buccaneers 8 days
Coaches
Nick Sirianni vs Todd Bowles
2nd · 9:32
TB +5% win prob
(9:32) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Otton. PENALTY on PHI-28-J.Jobe, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 26 - No Play.
1st · 11:32TB +5% win prob(11:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at TB 39 for 28 yards (31-A.Winfield).
