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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 3 · Mon, Sep 25, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 3
It turned at Q1 9:14, 4th and 1, on Kenneth Gainwell — 10.9 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Philadelphia Eagles 25–11. Biggest swing: Q1 9:14, Buccaneers +10.9% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:14 · 4th and 1
Kenneth Gainwell
Buccaneers
(9:14) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell up the middle to TB 15 for -1 yards (23-R.Neal, 31-A.Winfield).
10.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.42 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 3 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.20 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
(9:14) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell up the middle to TB 15 for -1 yards (23-R.Neal, 31-A.Winfield).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Olamide Zaccheaus's 34-yard touchdown catch with 3:41 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Olamide Zaccheaus34-yd TD catch34-yard touchdown catchfrom Jalen HurtsLead never changed again+710–38 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryBuccaneers
Eagles ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 78 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 45 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 7, Buccaneers 2.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
PHI's pass rate over expected turned over: −13.3 pts in week 2 against +3.5 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
78 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · +0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles3.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their -1.5 pts, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 78 snaps
Buccaneers-1.3 ptsright on their number · +0.4 vs their -1.8 pts, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 44 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 82%
Tendencies room →Eagles50.8%inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 59 early downs
Buccaneers52.9%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 34 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 46%
Tendencies room →Eagles12.5%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.4 vs their 21.9%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−1.16× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Buccaneers20.7%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 108%
Fourth Down room →Eagles75.0%inside their normal wobble · +15.8 vs their 59.2%, and they swing ±17.8 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Buccaneers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 28.6%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 76%
Tendencies room →Eagles13.8%inside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Buccaneers47.5%inside their normal wobble · +8.3 vs their 39.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 33%
Tendencies room →Eagles17.2%inside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Buccaneers10.0%right on their number · −3.2 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
PHI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 12.5%, 9.4 points below their season mean of 21.9% and 1.2 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
23/37, 277 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
1.8 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected
Passing · TB
15/25, 146 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
1.6 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Olamide Zaccheaus banked 7.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.1 | −5.8 | 83% | 85% | 40% | 39% | 9/14, 131 yd |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 19.9 | −15.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/37, 277 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 10 car, 28 yd, 1 TD |
| Mike EvansWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.0 | −5.2 | 81% | 83% | 40% | 56% | 5/10, 60 yd, 1 TD |
| D'Andre SwiftRB · Committee Back | 14.8 | +2.3 | 54% | 57% | 6% | 1% | 16 car, 130 yd · 1/2, 8 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.8 | +7.0 | 55% | 68% | 9% | 18% | 2/3, 58 yd, 1 TD |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 10.0 | −6.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/25, 146 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Featured Receiver | 9.1 | −2.4 | 93% | 93% | 20% | 9% | 5/7, 41 yd |
| Chris GodwinWR · Featured Receiver | 8.2 | −2.3 | 87% | 90% | 20% | 18% | 3/5, 32 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Bell Cow Back | 7.2 | −7.0 | 91% | 93% | 12% | 0% | 14 car, 38 yd · 3/3, 24 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | −4.5 | 99% | 100% | 14% | 19% | 4/5, 28 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB · Committee Back | 5.8 | −4.7 | 46% | 43% | 6% | 10% | 14 car, 43 yd · 1/2, 5 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −0.7 | 91% | 90% | 8% | 5% | 1/2, 16 yd |
| Deven ThompkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −3.9 | 21% | 21% | 16% | 19% | 2/4, 6 yd |
| Trey PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.3 | 72% | 86% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Jack StollTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −2.9 | 51% | 38% | 6% | 4% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Sean TuckerRB | 0.1 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Devon AllenWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Britain CoveyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 0-D.Swift INTERCEPTED by 45-D.White at TB 17. 45-D.White ran ob at TB 43 for 26 yards (1-J.Hurts).
Q2 0:48 · Eagles · 1st & 10 at TB 22 · gained nothing · -5.13 EP · −17.3% win probability
148 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 159 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 84 yards from the PHI 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Eagles3
Buccaneers0Eagles3Buccaneers3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
Eagles9Buccaneers3Eagles10Buccaneers3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
Eagles13Buccaneers3Eagles19Buccaneers3Eagles20Buccaneers3Eagles22Buccaneers3Eagles25Buccaneers3Eagles25Buccaneers9Eagles25Buccaneers11Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 23/37 | 277 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 16 | 130 | 8.1 | 0 | +8.4 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 0 | −6.3 |
| Jalen Hurts |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 9 | 14 | 131 | 0 | 40% | +5.6 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 3 | 58 | 1 | 9% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reed Blankenship | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Josh Jobe | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Davis |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 15/25 | 146 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_03_PHI_TB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -6 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 44; the game landed 36 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
| 10 |
| 28 |
| 2.8 |
| 1 |
| +3.3 |
| +5.0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 7 | 41 | 0 | 20% | +1.8 |
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 14% | −1.3 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | −4.5 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | −0.0 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Josh Sweat | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrell Edmunds | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sydney Brown | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Fletcher Cox | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Nicholas Morrow | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Milton Williams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Tuipulotu | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 0 | −5.1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Sean Tucker | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 5 | 10 | 60 | 1 | 40% | +0.8 |
| Chris Godwin | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 20% | +1.8 |
| Rachaad White | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 12% | −1.4 |
| Cade Otton | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 8% | +0.7 |
| Trey Palmer | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +1.2 |
| Deven Thompkins | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 16% | −2.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 7 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Neal | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Izien | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin White | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Zyon McCollum | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anthony Nelson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| William Gholston | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Delaney | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jamel Dean | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
