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Pittsburgh Steelers 23 at Las Vegas Raiders 18. Final.
Raiders -3 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 3
Pittsburgh Steelers 23, Raiders 18 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 6:21, 3rd and 7, on Calvin Austin — 16.3 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:21 · 3rd and 7
Calvin Austin
Steelers
(6:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 19-C.Austin for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-25-T.Moehrig, Defensive Holding, declined.
U 43.5 ✓
Dome
Raiders closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Pittsburgh Steelers 23–18. Biggest swing: Q1 6:21, Steelers +16.3% win probability on one snap.
16.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Davante AdamsRaidersQ1 7:10(7:10) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.7pts
Daniel CarlsonRaidersQ4 3:15(3:15) 2-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. PENALTY on PIT-98-D.Leal, Leverage, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 29 - No Play.
10.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — no giveaways, against Raiders at 4 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.26 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at -0.13 expected points per dropback.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Steelers won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Raiders at 3 chunk plays.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Steelers169 of 180 plays carry both curves
(6:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 19-C.Austin for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-25-T.Moehrig, Defensive Holding, declined.
Swing −16.3 for RaidersExpected points −6.79 for RaidersModel and market agree here.play 28
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:21LV +16% win prob(6:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 19-C.Austin for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-25-T.Moehrig, Defensive Holding, declined.
1st · 7:10LV +14% win prob(7:10) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:15LV +11% win prob(3:15) 2-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. PENALTY on PIT-98-D.Leal, Leverage, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 29 - No Play.
3rd · 11:48LV +7% win prob(11:48) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right to 14-G.Pickens pushed ob at LV 42 for 32 yards (24-M.Peters).
4th · 2:31PIT +7% win prob(2:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 16-J.Meyers [54-K.Alexander].
2nd · 8:37LV +6% win prob(8:37) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Boswell's 43-yard field goal with 8:37 left in the 2nd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:10Davante Adams·32-yd TD catch32-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy Garoppolo+70–7
4th5:44Davante Adams·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy Garoppolo · two-point good+823–15
4th2:25Daniel Carlson·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+323–18
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryRaiders
Steelers5–3Raiders
334Total yards364
5.7Yards per play5.4
37%Success rate50%
40%Third-down rate31%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays3
15First downs17
1Sacks taken4
0Turnovers4
The read
Steelers ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Steelers: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.14Raiders: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.26Steelers: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.13Raiders: −0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Steelers: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.19Raiders: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 59 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Raiders’s 68 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 2, Raiders 3.
NoteRaiders outgained Steelers 364-334 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Raiders16.7%
inside their normal wobble · +3.3 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NotePIT's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 26.7%, 10.6 points above their season mean of 16.0% and 1.6 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Pickett pass+16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 19-C.Austin for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-25-T.Moehrig, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q1 6:21 · Steelers · 3rd & 7 at PIT 28 · gained 72 · +6.79 EP · +16.5% win probability
167 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 81 yards from the PIT 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
39%
Yards
697
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.2080%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.1851%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0653%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0833%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.24100%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.710%
Steelers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 34
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 12 to the Raiders 19
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Steelers 27
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerEightPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Steelers0Raiders6
Steelers0Raiders7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 26 to the Steelers 32
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Steelers6Raiders7
Steelers7Raiders7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 28
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 30
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 46
The period ended3 plays, from the Raiders 14 to the Raiders 16
2nd quarter44 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Raiders 23 to the Steelers 43
Steelers10Raiders7
Field goal9 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Raiders 23
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 32
Steelers13Raiders7
Field goal13 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Raiders 23
The period ended8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 48
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 32
Steelers16Raiders7
Field goal9 plays, from the Steelers 9 to the Raiders 39
Intercepted6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Steelers 48
Steelers22Raiders7
Steelers23Raiders7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Steelers 19 to the Raiders 13
The period ended9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Steelers 27
4th quarter56 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Steelers 36 to the Steelers 22
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 22 to the Steelers 30
Steelers23Raiders13
Steelers23Raiders15
Touchdown15 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Steelers 1
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 27
Steelers23Raiders18
Field goal11 plays, from the Raiders 48 to the Steelers 8
The period ended12 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 39
Intercepted1 play
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Raiders -3
Closing total
43.5
Steelers moneyline
+124
Raiders moneyline
-148
Raiders closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 41 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
Steelers 6 days · Raiders 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Josh McDaniels
2nd · 2:00
LV +6% win prob
(2:00) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
2nd · 3:31LV +6% win prob(3:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett scrambles left end ran ob at LV 26 for 10 yards (25-T.Moehrig). LV-51-M.Koonce was injured during the play.
