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2023 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 24, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

23

Las Vegas Raiders

18

LV -3 upsetU 43.5 ✓Dome

Pittsburgh Steelers 23–18. Biggest swing: Q1 6:21, LV +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LVPIT
Q1 · 6:21PIT 6LV 7PIT ball · 3rd & 7LV 77%

(6:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 19-C.Austin for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-25-T.Moehrig, Defensive Holding, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 6:21LV +16% win prob(6:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 19-C.Austin for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-25-T.Moehrig, Defensive Holding, declined.
  2. Q1 · 7:10LV +14% win prob(7:10) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 3:15LV +11% win prob(3:15) 2-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. PENALTY on PIT-98-D.Leal, Leverage, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 29 - No Play.
  4. Q3 · 11:48LV +7% win prob(11:48) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right to 14-G.Pickens pushed ob at LV 42 for 32 yards (24-M.Peters).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:10LV Touchdown

    (7:10) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 0LV 7
  2. Q1 · 6:21PIT Touchdown

    (6:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 19-C.Austin for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-25-T.Moehrig, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 7LV 7
  3. Q2 · 8:37PIT Field goal

    (8:37) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

    Score after this play: PIT 10LV 7
  4. Q2 · 2:00PIT Field goal

    (2:00) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

    Score after this play: PIT 13LV 7
  5. Q3 · 9:33PIT Field goal

    (9:33) 9-C.Boswell 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

    Score after this play: PIT 16LV 7
  6. Q3 · 4:00PIT Touchdown

    (4:00) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 23LV 7
  7. Q4 · 5:44LV Touchdown

    (5:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: PIT 23LV 15
  8. Q4 · 2:25LV Field goal

    (2:25) 2-D.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: PIT 23LV 18

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSteelersRaiders
Offensive plays5968
Total yards334364 (edge)
Yards per play5.7 (edge)5.4
Expected points added / play0.02 (edge)-0.14
Success rate37%50% (edge)
Dropback rate51%74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.26 (edge)-0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.23-0.19 (edge)
Third downs6/15 (edge)4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)5 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps1517 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)4
Turnovers0 (edge)4

Raiders outgained Steelers 364–334 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

28/44, 324 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

-7.3 expected points added · -4.4% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Kenny PickettQB

16/28, 235 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.9 expected points added · -10.1% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

19 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

-4.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

17 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Davante AdamsWR

13/20 for 172 yds, 2 TD

45% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Jakobi MeyersWR

7/12 for 85 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · -3.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1PITPIT 25592:04Punt
2LVLV 12471:29Punt
3PITPIT 23441:00Punt
4LVLV 268793:23Touchdown +7
5PITPIT 255750:52Touchdown +7
6LVLV 25551:43Punt
7PITPIT 257143:40Punt
8LVLV 148433:25Interception
9PITPIT 318293:51Field goal +3
10LVLV 255121:29Punt
11PITPIT 2311435:08Field goal +3
12LVLV 257151:18Punt
13PITPIT 20160:38End of half
14LVLV 25571:03Punt
15PITPIT 99524:29Field goal +3
16LVLV 256272:13Interception
17PITPIT 197813:19Touchdown +7
18LVLV 2511685:43Turnover on downs
19PITPIT 22481:41Punt
20LVLV 2012685:51Touchdown +8
21PITPIT 25521:06Punt
22LVLV 489332:13Field goal +3
23PITPIT 258112:10Punt
24LVLV 15100:07Interception
25PITLV 31100:05End of game

8 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 81 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kenny Pickett16/282352015.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Najee Harris19653.40-4.8
Jaylen Warren8293.60-1.5
Kenny Pickett3113.701.4
Connor Heyward100.00-1.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
George Pickens4675022%6.0
Calvin Austin2672122%2.4
Pat Freiermuth3441115%2.7
Allen Robinson4424015%1.0
Jaylen Warren3423015%-0.5
Najee Harris01004%-0.8
Connor Heyward02007%-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Minkah Fitzpatrick640.000
Kwon Alexander520.000
Levi Wallace420.024
Patrick Peterson410.011
Mark Robinson400.000
Keanu Neal220.000
Cole Holcomb300.001
Damontae Kazee200.000
T.J. Watt202.000
Montravius Adams110.000

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jimmy Garoppolo28/44324234-7.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs17623.60-2.2
Jimmy Garoppolo273.50-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Davante Adams1320172245%8.5
Jakobi Meyers71285027%-3.9
Josh Jacobs3518011%-0.3
Hunter Renfrow221705%-0.1
Ameer Abdullah231607%-1.9
DeAndre Carter111602%-0.1
Michael Mayer01002%-3.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Divine Deablo440.000
Nate Hobbs330.002
John Jenkins240.000
Robert Spillane510.000
Marcus Peters410.000
Bilal Nichols320.000
Marcus Epps220.000
Maxx Crosby121.000
Jerry Tillery110.000
Trevon Moehrig110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LV -3
Closing total
43.5
PIT moneyline
+124
LV moneyline
-148

Raiders closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 41 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
PIT 6 days · LV 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Josh McDaniels