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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:18 AM ET · 16 to play
Arizona Cardinals 16 at San Francisco 49ers 35. Final.
49ers -15 ✓O 44 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 4
San Francisco 49ers 35, Cardinals 16 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 4:17, 1st and 8, on Michael Wilson — 5.7 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:17 · 1st and 8
Michael Wilson
Cardinals
(4:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 14-Mi.Wilson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
49ers closed -15 and covered, winning by 19.
San Francisco 49ers 35–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 4:17, Cardinals +5.7% win probability on one snap.
5.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheet49ersQ1 13:34(13:34) 16-N.Cooney punts 49 yards to SF 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 3-R.McCloud pushed ob at SF 38 for 15 yards (85-T.McBride, 43-J.Luketa).
3.2pts
Christian McCaffreyCardinalsQ1 12:16(12:16) 23-C.McCaffrey left tackle to ARI 47 for 6 yards (52-V.Dimukeje; 47-E.Turner).
3.7pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +1.04 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at +0.18 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 65% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 4 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.50 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at +0.12 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Cardinals154 of 164 plays carry both curves
(4:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 14-Mi.Wilson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −5.7 for 49ersExpected points −1.54 for 49ersThe model had Cardinals 16 points higher than the market did.play 106
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 4:17SF +6% win prob(4:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 14-Mi.Wilson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:16ARI +4% win prob(12:16) 23-C.McCaffrey left tackle to ARI 47 for 6 yards (52-V.Dimukeje; 47-E.Turner).
1st · 13:34ARI +3% win prob(13:34) 16-N.Cooney punts 49 yards to SF 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 3-R.McCloud pushed ob at SF 38 for 15 yards (85-T.McBride, 43-J.Luketa).
3rd · 6:34SF +2% win prob(6:34) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass deep right to 2-M.Brown ran ob at SF 22 for 41 yards (31-T.Gipson).
1st · 14:23SF +2% win prob(14:23) 6-J.Conner right guard to ARI 33 for 2 yards (57-D.Greenlaw, 98-J.Hargrave).
3rd · 2:46
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Christian McCaffrey's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 9:10 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:10Christian McCaffrey·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
49ers ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.04 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Cardinals: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.5049ers: +0.50 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Cardinals: +0.18 expected points added per play
+1.0449ers: +1.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Cardinals: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.0949ers: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 68 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against 49ers’s 51 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 4, 49ers 5.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.50 expected points added per play vs 0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SF's blitz rate sent, 4.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 7.6 points clear of the next team along.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 3.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ARI's sack or hit rate, 4.5%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 1.3 points clear of the next team along.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
ARI's early-down pass rate turned over: 36.6% in week 3 against 65.3% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 10 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.3 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
49ers14.9%
right on their number · −1.7 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
NoteSF's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 4.3%, 16.6 points below their season mean of 20.9% and 1.5 times their own 10.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Purdy pass+6% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:26) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle to ARI 30 for 9 yards (22-K.Wallace; 45-D.Gardeck).
Q1 0:26 · 49ers · 4th & 4 at ARI 39 · gained 9 · +3.37 EP · +6.1% win probability
152 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 15 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 15 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 99 yards from the ARI 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
+0.21
Success rate
49%
Yards
757
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.1470%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR30+0.4647%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR14+0.7350%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0345%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Cardinals0 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 33
Cardinals049ers6
Cardinals049ers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 38 to the Cardinals 1
Punt11 plays, from the Cardinals 16 to the Cardinals 36
The period ended8 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cardinals 39
2nd quarter48 plays
Cardinals049ers13
Cardinals049ers14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 18
Cardinals349ers14
Field goal16 plays, from the Cardinals 40 to the 49ers 20
Cardinals349ers20
Cardinals349ers21
Touchdown7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cardinals 6
Cardinals949ers21
Touchdown17 plays, from the Cardinals 13 to the 49ers 16
Cardinals1049ers21
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter31 plays
Punt10 plays, from the 49ers 13 to the Cardinals 32
Cardinals1649ers21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cardinals 1 to the 49ers 8
The period ended8 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Cardinals 13
4th quarter49 plays
Cardinals1649ers27
Cardinals1649ers28
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cardinals 9 to the Cardinals 2
Punt12 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the 49ers 35
Cardinals1649ers34
Cardinals1649ers35
Touchdown20 plays, from the 49ers 23 to the Cardinals 1
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the 49ers 11
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
