2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · Levi's Stadium

Arizona Cardinals

San Francisco 49ersWinner

SF -15 ✓O 44 ✓49ers closed -15 and covered, winning by 19.

San Francisco 49ers 35–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 4:17, SF +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 4:17ARI 16 — SF 21ARI ball · 1st & 8SF 93%

(4:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 14-Mi.Wilson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 4:17SF +6% win prob(4:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 14-Mi.Wilson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:16ARI +4% win prob(12:16) 23-C.McCaffrey left tackle to ARI 47 for 6 yards (52-V.Dimukeje; 47-E.Turner).
Q1 · 13:34ARI +3% win prob(13:34) 16-N.Cooney punts 49 yards to SF 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 3-R.McCloud pushed ob at SF 38 for 15 yards (85-T.McBride, 43-J.Luketa).
Q3 · 4:12ARI +3% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 6-J.Conner rushes left end. ATTEMPT FAILS.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:10SF Touchdown
(9:10) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 0 — SF 7
Q2 · 14:21SF Touchdown
(14:21) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey right end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 0 — SF 14
Q2 · 8:17ARI Field goal
(8:17) 5-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.
Score after this play: ARI 3 — SF 14
Q2 · 5:29SF Touchdown
(5:29) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 3 — SF 21
Q2 · 0:28ARI Touchdown
(:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass deep left to 14-Mi.Wilson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-97-N.Bosa, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 10 — SF 21
Q3 · 4:17ARI Touchdown
(4:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 14-Mi.Wilson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: ARI 16 — SF 21
Q4 · 14:25SF Touchdown
(14:25) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 16 — SF 28
Q4 · 2:00SF Touchdown
(2:00) 13-B.Purdy up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 16 — SF 35

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	49ers
Offensive plays	68	51
Total yards	362	397 (edge)
Yards per play	5.3	7.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.12	0.50 (edge)
Success rate	47%	65% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	43%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18	1.04 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01	0.09 (edge)
Third downs	8/15	3/5 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0	0

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.50 expected points added per play vs 0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

20/21, 283 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

22.8 expected points added · +27.2% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Joshua DobbsQB

28/41, 265 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.9 expected points added · +5.3% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

20 att, 106 yds, 3 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

11 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

6/6 for 148 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 10.0 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Marquise BrownWR

7/10 for 96 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 25	5	8	1:37	Punt
2	SF	SF 38	9	55	4:16	Touchdown +7
3	ARI	ARI 16	9	22	4:44	Punt
4	SF	SF 25	10	75	5:09	Touchdown +7
5	ARI	ARI 40	14	44	6:00	Field goal +3
6	SF	SF 25	7	75	2:52	Touchdown +7
7	ARI	ARI 13	15	92	4:59	Touchdown +7
8	SF	SF 25	2	0	0:23	End of half
9	SF	SF 13	9	41	4:23	Punt
10	ARI	ARI 1	12	94	6:25	Touchdown +6
11	SF	SF 25	10	75	4:50	Touchdown +7
12	ARI	ARI 25	12	42	5:09	Punt
13	SF	SF 23	15	76	7:14	Touchdown +7
14	ARI	ARI 25	12	60	1:52	Turnover on downs
15	SF	SF 15	1	0	0:07	End of game

8 of 15 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 94 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joshua Dobbs	28/41	265	2	0	1	3.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Conner	11	52	4.7	-0.7
Joshua Dobbs	12	48	4.0	3.6
Emari Demercado	1	3	3.0	-0.3
Ezekiel Turner	1	2	2.0	1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Brown	7	10	96	0	24%	5.9
Michael Wilson	7	7	76	2	17%	8.1
Zach Ertz	6	10	53	0	24%	-2.0
Emari Demercado	3	4	21	0	10%	-0.8
Zach Pascal	3	4	10	0	10%	-1.9
Trey McBride	1	1	5	0	2%	0.2
James Conner	1	2	4	0	5%	-0.6
Rondale Moore	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.8
Geoff Swaim	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Ezekiel Turner	4	6	0.0
K'Von Wallace	4	4	0.0
Kyzir White	3	4	0.0
Kei'Trel Clark	5	0	0.0
Leki Fotu	2	2	0.0
Marco Wilson	3	1	0.0
Dennis Gardeck	2	2	1.0
Roy Lopez	1	2	0.0
Jalen Thompson	3	0	0.0
Zaven Collins	2	0	0.0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	20/21	283	1	0	1	22.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	20	106	5.3	3	3.0
Jordan Mason	3	10	3.3	0	-0.7
Deebo Samuel	3	6	2.0	0	-0.7
Kyle Juszczyk	2	3	1.5	0	-0.5
Brock Purdy	2	0	0.0	1	1.6
Sam Darnold	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Aiyuk	6	6	148	0	29%	10.0
Christian McCaffrey	7	8	71	1	38%	7.4
Ray-Ray McCloud	2	2	22	0	10%	2.6
Jordan Mason	1	1	13	0	5%	0.8
George Kittle	1	1	9	0	5%	3.4
Willie Snead	1	1	9	0	5%	0.8
Ronnie Bell	1	1	7	0	5%	0.2
Kyle Juszczyk	1	1	4	0	5%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Dre Greenlaw	6	2	0.0
Fred Warner	6	2	0.0
Tashaun Gipson	1	4	0.0
Deommodore Lenoir	3	1	0.0
Talanoa Hufanga	3	1	0.0
Javon Hargrave	2	2	1.0
Isaiah Oliver	4	0	0.0
Kendall Sheffield	3	0	0.0
Ambry Thomas	2	1	0.0
Ji'Ayir Brown	1	1	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -15
Closing total: 44
ARI moneyline: +700
SF moneyline: -1100

49ers closed -15 and covered, winning by 19.

Total closed 44; the game landed 51 — over by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 75°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: ARI 7 days · SF 10 days
Coaches: Jonathan Gannon vs Kyle Shanahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.