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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 4
It turned at Q3 4:17, 1st and 8, on Michael Wilson — 5.7 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 35–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 4:17, Cardinals +5.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:17 · 1st and 8
Michael Wilson
Cardinals
(4:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 14-Mi.Wilson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +1.04 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at +0.18 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 65% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 4 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.50 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at +0.12 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(4:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 14-Mi.Wilson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Christian McCaffrey's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 9:10 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Michael Wilson8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Joshua Dobbs · two-point no good+616–218 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cardinalscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.04 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 68 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against 49ers’s 51 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 4, 49ers 5.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.50 expected points added per play vs 0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's blitz rate sent, 4.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 7.6 points clear of the next team along.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
ARI's sack or hit rate, 4.5%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 1.3 points clear of the next team along.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
ARI's early-down pass rate turned over: 36.6% in week 3 against 65.3% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 10 pts
Over Expected room →Cardinals-0.2 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +6.2 vs their -6.4 pts, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 67 snaps
49ers-1.4 ptsright on their number · +0.8 vs their -2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 51 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 82%
Tendencies room →Cardinals65.3%leaned — passed early · +11.9 vs their 53.4%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 49 early downs
49ers40.0%leaned — ran early · −10.2 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 47%
Tendencies room →Cardinals23.4%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 21.5%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
49ers22.7%right on their number · +2.4 vs their 20.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17% to 112%
Fourth Down room →Cardinals—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 47.9%.
49ers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 49%
Tendencies room →Cardinals18.2%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 19.8%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
49ers4.3%leaned — sat back · −16.6 vs their 20.9%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−1.53× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 32%
Tendencies room →Cardinals4.5%leaned — stayed blocked · −5.3 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
49ers14.9%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
SF's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 4.3%, 16.6 points below their season mean of 20.9% and 1.5 times their own 10.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
20/21, 283 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
22.8 expected points added · +27.2% completion over expected
Passing · ARI
28/41, 265 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
3.9 expected points added · +5.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Michael Wilson banked 16.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 48.7 | +13.5 | 85% | 86% | 38% | 9% | 20 car, 106 yd, 3 TD · 7/8, 71 yd, 1 TD |
| Michael WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 26.6 | +16.1 | 70% | 74% | 17% | 18% | 7/7, 76 yd, 2 TD |
| Joshua DobbsQB · Starter QB | 23.4 | +3.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/41, 265 yd, 2 TD · 12 car, 48 yd |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 21.3 | +7.0 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 20/21, 283 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 0 yd, 1 TD |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.8 | +8.4 | 76% | 82% | 29% | 71% | 6/6, 148 yd |
| Marquise BrownWR · Featured Receiver | 16.6 | +2.5 | 94% | 98% | 24% | 42% | 7/10, 96 yd |
| Zach ErtzTE · Featured Receiver | 11.3 | −3.3 | 76% | 87% | 24% | 30% | 6/10, 53 yd |
| James ConnerRB | 6.6 | −1.5 | 62% | 49% | 5% | 1% | 11 car, 52 yd · 1/2, 4 yd |
| Emari DemercadoRB | 5.4 | −0.7 | 35% | 49% | 10% | 1% | 1 car, 3 yd · 3/4, 21 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +0.6 | 24% | 36% | 10% | 9% | 2/2, 22 yd |
| Zach PascalWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −1.7 | 30% | 19% | 10% | 7% | 3/4, 10 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB | 3.3 | +0.3 | 15% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 3 car, 10 yd · 1/1, 13 yd |
| George KittleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | 96% | 100% | 5% | 2% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Willie SneadWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 1.7 | −4.6 | 65% | 68% | 5% | 2% | 2 car, 3 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Ronnie BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.3 | 16% | 14% | 5% | 0% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Trey McBrideTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | 27% | 19% | 2% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.6 | −1.7 | 87% | 86% | 0% | — | 3 car, 6 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Geoff SwaimTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 28% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Rondale MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.8 | 76% | 85% | 5% | 0% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Brayden WillisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Sam DarnoldQB | -0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:26) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle to ARI 30 for 9 yards (22-K.Wallace; 45-D.Gardeck).
Q1 0:26 · 49ers · 4th & 4 at ARI 39 · gained 9 · +3.37 EP · +6.1% win probability
152 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 15 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 15 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 99 yards from the ARI 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cardinals0
49ers6Cardinals049ers7Cardinals049ers13Cardinals049ers14Cardinals349ers14Cardinals349ers20Cardinals349ers21Cardinals949ers21Cardinals1049ers21Cardinals1649ers21Cardinals1649ers27Cardinals1649ers28Cardinals1649ers34Cardinals1649ers35Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cardinals at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 28/41 | 265 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 0 | +3.6 |
| Emari Demercado |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 7 | 10 | 96 | 0 | 24% | +5.9 |
| Michael Wilson | 7 | 7 | 76 | 2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Turner | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Von Wallace | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyzir White |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 20/21 | 283 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +22.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_04_ARI_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -15 and covered, winning by 19.
Total closed 44; the game landed 51 — over by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.3 |
| Ezekiel Turner | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +1.9 |
| 17% |
| +8.1 |
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 10 | 53 | 0 | 24% | −2.0 |
| Emari Demercado | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 10% | −0.8 |
| Zach Pascal | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 10% | −1.9 |
| Trey McBride | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2% | +0.2 |
| James Conner | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| Rondale Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.8 |
| Geoff Swaim | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.7 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kei'Trel Clark | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leki Fotu | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marco Wilson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dennis Gardeck | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Lopez | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Thompson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaven Collins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 20 | 106 | 5.3 | 3 | +3.0 |
| Jordan Mason | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Deebo Samuel | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Brock Purdy | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | +1.6 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 6 | 6 | 148 | 0 | 29% | +10.0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 8 | 71 | 1 | 38% | +7.4 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 10% | +2.6 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 5% | +0.8 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 5% | +3.4 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 5% | +0.8 |
| Ronnie Bell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5% | +0.2 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dre Greenlaw | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Warner | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Hargrave | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Sheffield | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ambry Thomas | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
