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Atlanta Falcons 7 at Jacksonville Jaguars 23. Final.
Jaguars -3.5 ✓U 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 4
Jacksonville Jaguars 23, Falcons 7 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 4:42, 1st and 10, on Darious Williams — 14.4 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:42 · 1st and 10
Darious Williams
Jaguars
(4:42) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 31-Dari.Williams at JAX 39. 31-Dari.Williams for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Jaguars closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Jacksonville Jaguars 23–7. Biggest swing: Q2 4:42, Jaguars +14.4% win probability on one snap.
14.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Christian KirkJaguarsQ1 6:54(6:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk to ATL 28 for 10 yards (24-A.Terrell). JAX-17-E.Engram was injured during the play.
7.6pts
Calvin RidleyJaguarsQ1 5:50(5:50) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-K.Elliss].
7.0pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Jaguars won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 3 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.22 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.53 expected points per dropback.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Jaguars at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.30 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Falcons151 of 161 plays carry both curves
(4:42) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 31-Dari.Williams at JAX 39. 31-Dari.Williams for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +14.4 for JaguarsExpected points +9.77 for JaguarsModel and market agree here.play 59
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:42ATL +14% win prob(4:42) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 31-Dari.Williams at JAX 39. 31-Dari.Williams for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:54JAX +8% win prob(6:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk to ATL 28 for 10 yards (24-A.Terrell). JAX-17-E.Engram was injured during the play.
1st · 5:50JAX +7% win prob(5:50) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-K.Elliss].
1st · 4:12ATL +6% win prob(4:12) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder sacked at ATL 26 for -8 yards (41-J.Allen).
2nd · 4:31ATL +5% win prob(4:31) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short middle intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 5-A.Cisco at ATL 38. 5-A.Cisco to ATL 20 for 18 yards (40-K.Smith). FUMBLES (40-K.Smith), recovered by JAX-23-F.Oluokun at ATL 16.
3rd · 3:04JAX +5% win prob(3:04) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to JAX 10, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Calvin Ridley's 30-yard touchdown catch with 5:50 left in the 1st put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
4th10:41Brandon McManus·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+37–20
4th2:00Brandon McManus·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+37–23
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryJaguars
Falcons5–3Jaguars
287Total yards304
5.0Yards per play5.0
42%Success rate38%
50%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
4Explosive plays4
17First downs15
4Sacks taken2
3Turnovers0
The read
Falcons ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.30Falcons: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.01Jaguars: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.53Falcons: −0.53 expected points added per play
+0.22Jaguars: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.09Falcons: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.30Jaguars: −0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 57 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 61 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 2, Jaguars 3.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · +0.9 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Jaguars22.2%
leaned — got home · +6.3 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteATL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 13.9%, 13.8 points below their season mean of 27.7% and 1.1 times their own 12.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
65Matthew BergeronG · Every snap100%58 snaps
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%58 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%58 snaps
67Drew DalmanC · Every snap100%58 snaps
9Desmond RidderQB · Every snap100%58 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%58 snaps
5Drake LondonWR · Full-time86%50 snaps
18Mack HollinsWR · Heavy rotation79%46 snaps
7Bijan RobinsonRB · Heavy rotation76%44 snaps
8Kyle PittsTE · Heavy rotation64%37 snaps
81Jonnu SmithTE · Heavy rotation55%32 snaps
85MyCole PruittTE · Rotational33%19 snaps
40Keith SmithFB · Rotational29%17 snaps
25Tyler AllgeierRB · Rotational26%15 snaps
12KhaDarel HodgeWR · Situational24%14 snaps
16Scott MillerWR · Situational24%14 snaps
87John FitzPatrickTE · Situational2%1 snap
84Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Clark PhillipsCBJoe GazianoDEAlbert HugginsDTJovaughn GwynGLogan WoodsideQBJosh AliWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Taylor HeinickeQB
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
69Tyler ShatleyG · Every snap100%66 snaps
72Walker LittleT · Every snap100%66 snaps
77Anton HarrisonT · Every snap100%66 snaps
79Luke FortnerC · Every snap100%66 snaps
16Trevor LawrenceQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
68Brandon ScherffG · Full-time95%63 snaps
1Travis EtienneRB · Full-time85%56 snaps
0Calvin RidleyWR · Full-time80%53 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Heavy rotation79%52 snaps
17Evan EngramTE · Heavy rotation73%48 snaps
15Tim JonesWR · Heavy rotation59%39 snaps
89Luke FarrellTE · Rotational39%26 snaps
85Brenton StrangeTE · Rotational36%24 snaps
73Blake HanceG · Situational15%10 snaps
4Tank BigsbyRB · Situational12%8 snaps
83Jacob HarrisWR · Situational11%7 snaps
22Jamycal HastyRB · Situational8%5 snaps
78Ben BartchG · Situational5%3 snaps
25D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Situational2%1 snap
11Parker WashingtonWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Antonio JohnsonFSDevin LloydILBElijah CooksWRZay JonesWRJamal AgnewWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Ridder pass−14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:42) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 31-Dari.Williams at JAX 39. 31-Dari.Williams for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 4:42 · Falcons · 1st & 10 at JAX 45 · gained nothing · -9.77 EP · −14.2% win probability
149 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 75 yards from the ATL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
40%
Yards
587
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.1167%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26-0.1985%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.0875%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-1.1136%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR11+0.2564%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.140%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Falcons2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 43
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 7 to the Falcons 16
Falcons0Jaguars6
Falcons0Jaguars7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 28 to the Falcons 28
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 34
The period ended7 plays, from the Jaguars 16 to the Falcons 33
2nd quarter45 plays
Falcons0Jaguars10
Field goal2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 45
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 19 to the Jaguars 28
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Falcons0Jaguars16
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 13 to the Jaguars 45
Falcons0Jaguars17
Intercepted2 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Falcons 16 to the Falcons 7
The period ended9 plays, from the Falcons 12 to the Falcons 31
The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 42
3rd quarter38 plays
Falcons6Jaguars17
Falcons7Jaguars17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Jaguars 15
Punt10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 47
Punt11 plays, from the Falcons 7 to the Jaguars 48
The period ended7 plays, from the Jaguars 10 to the Jaguars 26
4th quarter42 plays
Falcons7Jaguars20
Field goal8 plays, from the Jaguars 37 to the Falcons 25
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Jaguars 6
Falcons7Jaguars23
Field goal15 plays, from the Jaguars 6 to the Falcons 20
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Jaguars 47
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
