For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · Wembley Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 4
It turned at Q2 4:42, 1st and 10, on Darious Williams — 14.4 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Jacksonville Jaguars 23–7. Biggest swing: Q2 4:42, Jaguars +14.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:42 · 1st and 10
Darious Williams
Jaguars
(4:42) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 31-Dari.Williams at JAX 39. 31-Dari.Williams for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Jaguars won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 3 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.22 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.53 expected points per dropback.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Jaguars at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.30 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(4:42) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 31-Dari.Williams at JAX 39. 31-Dari.Williams for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Calvin Ridley's 30-yard touchdown catch with 5:50 left in the 1st put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Calvin Ridley30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Trevor LawrenceLead never changed again+70–76 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Falconscategory by categoryJaguars
Falcons ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 57 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 61 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 2, Jaguars 3.
Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Falcons-5.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their -9.9 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 57 snaps
Jaguars6.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.2 vs their 2.8 pts, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 88%
Tendencies room →Falcons54.5%inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 49.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 44 early downs
Jaguars52.2%inside their normal wobble · −7.8 vs their 60.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 60%
Tendencies room →Falcons13.9%leaned — dropped back clean · −13.8 vs their 27.7%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Jaguars19.4%right on their number · +0.0 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.00× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 104%
Fourth Down room →Falcons33.3%right on their number · −0.7 vs their 34.0%, and they swing ±27.4 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Jaguars33.3%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 31.5%, and they swing ±22.9 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 50%
Tendencies room →Falcons30.6%inside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Jaguars19.4%inside their normal wobble · −7.8 vs their 27.2%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 38%
Tendencies room →Falcons16.7%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Jaguars22.2%leaned — got home · +6.3 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
ATL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 13.9%, 13.8 points below their season mean of 27.7% and 1.1 times their own 12.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · JAX
23/30, 207 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
4.4 expected points added · +6.1% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
19/31, 191 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-19.3 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Calvin Ridley banked 8.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.7 | +5.5 | 76% | 81% | 17% | 0% | 14 car, 105 yd · 5/5, 32 yd |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 16.5 | +3.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/30, 207 yd, 1 TD · 8 car, 42 yd |
| Christian KirkWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.4 | −1.3 | 79% | 97% | 40% | 46% | 8/12, 84 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Featured Receiver | 15.5 | +6.2 | 55% | 67% | 20% | 19% | 6/6, 95 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Alpha Receiver | 12.9 | +1.1 | 73% | 89% | 27% | 19% | 7/8, 59 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Featured Receiver | 11.8 | −0.9 | 86% | 89% | 23% | 35% | 3/7, 28 yd, 1 TD |
| Calvin RidleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.8 | +8.2 | 80% | 97% | 7% | 21% | 2/2, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis EtienneRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.2 | −4.6 | 85% | 92% | 10% | 0% | 20 car, 55 yd · 3/3, 17 yd |
| Desmond RidderQB · Starter QB | 6.2 | −5.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/31, 191 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 6 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | −3.0 | 64% | 86% | 13% | 19% | 2/4, 21 yd |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +1.4 | 24% | 25% | 7% | 6% | 2/2, 19 yd |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +0.2 | 39% | 22% | 7% | 3% | 2/2, 10 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | 2.2 | −3.8 | 26% | 22% | 7% | 0% | 7 car, 16 yd · 1/2, -4 yd |
| Tank BigsbyRB | 1.0 | −0.6 | 12% | 3% | 0% | — | 3 car, 10 yd |
| Tim JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | −0.5 | 59% | 64% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, -1 yd |
| MyCole PruittTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 33% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.2 | 79% | 78% | 10% | 30% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Keith SmithRB | 0.0 | — | 29% | 11% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jamycal HastyRB | 0.0 | −3.7 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brenton StrangeTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 36% | 19% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Parker WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | -0.2 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:42) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 31-Dari.Williams at JAX 39. 31-Dari.Williams for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 4:42 · Falcons · 1st & 10 at JAX 45 · gained nothing · -9.77 EP · −14.2% win probability
149 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 161 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 75 yards from the ATL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Falcons0
Jaguars6Falcons0Jaguars7Falcons0Jaguars10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Falcons0Jaguars16Falcons0Jaguars17Falcons6Jaguars17Falcons7Jaguars17Falcons7Jaguars20Falcons7Jaguars23Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Falcons at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 19/31 | 191 | 1 | 2 | 4 | −19.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 14 | 105 | 7.5 | 0 | +3.7 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Desmond Ridder |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonnu Smith | 6 | 6 | 95 | 0 | 20% | +5.8 |
| Bijan Robinson | 5 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richie Grant | 9 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Landman | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 23/30 | 207 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +4.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_04_ATL_JAX
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Jaguars closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 30 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 6 |
| 6.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.4 |
| +1.2 |
| Drake London | 3 | 7 | 28 | 1 | 23% | −9.2 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 13% | −5.1 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 7% | +2.3 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −1.7 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 7% | −1.8 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| David Onyemata | 1 | 5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hughes | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bud Dupree | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaden Elliss | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grady Jarrett | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Alford | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Terrell | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 20 | 55 | 2.8 | 0 | −5.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Tank Bigsby | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | −1.4 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 8 | 12 | 84 | 0 | 40% | +4.7 |
| Evan Engram | 7 | 8 | 59 | 0 | 27% | +1.0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 2 | 2 | 38 | 1 | 7% | +4.6 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 10% | +1.3 |
| Luke Farrell | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 7% | +0.9 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −2.4 |
| Tim Jones | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | −1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chad Muma | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tyson Campbell | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Darious Williams | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Andre Cisco | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tre Herndon | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 3 | 0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Angelo Blackson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Robertson-Harris | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
