2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · Wembley Stadium

Atlanta Falcons

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

JAX -3.5 ✓U 42.5 ✓Jaguars closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Jacksonville Jaguars 23–7. Biggest swing: Q2 4:42, ATL +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 4:42ATL 0 — JAX 16ATL ball · 1st & 10JAX 77%

(4:42) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 31-Dari.Williams at JAX 39. 31-Dari.Williams for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 4:42ATL +14% win prob(4:42) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 31-Dari.Williams at JAX 39. 31-Dari.Williams for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 6:54JAX +8% win prob(6:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk to ATL 28 for 10 yards (24-A.Terrell). JAX-17-E.Engram was injured during the play.
Q1 · 5:50JAX +7% win prob(5:50) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-K.Elliss].
Q1 · 4:12ATL +6% win prob(4:12) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder sacked at ATL 26 for -8 yards (41-J.Allen).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 5:50JAX Touchdown
(5:50) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-K.Elliss]. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 0 — JAX 7
Q2 · 14:56JAX Field goal
(14:56) 10-B.McManus 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: ATL 0 — JAX 10
Q2 · 4:42JAX Touchdown
(4:42) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 31-Dari.Williams at JAX 39. 31-Dari.Williams for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 0 — JAX 17
Q3 · 11:42ATL Touchdown
(11:42) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 5-D.London for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 7 — JAX 17
Q4 · 10:41JAX Field goal
(10:41) 10-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: ATL 7 — JAX 20
Q4 · 2:00JAX Field goal
(2:00) 10-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: ATL 7 — JAX 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Jaguars
Offensive plays	57	61
Total yards	287	304 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0 (edge)	5.0
Expected points added / play	-0.30	0.01 (edge)
Success rate	42% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	63%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.53	0.22 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.30
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	4
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.30.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

23/30, 207 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.4 expected points added · +6.1% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Desmond RidderQB

19/31, 191 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-19.3 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

14 att, 105 yds, 0 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

20 att, 55 yds, 0 TD

-5.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Jonnu SmithTE

6/6 for 95 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 5.8 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Christian KirkWR

8/12 for 84 yds, 0 TD

40% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	8	18	3:35	Punt
2	ATL	ATL 7	4	9	1:52	Punt
3	JAX	JAX 28	9	72	3:49	Touchdown +7
4	ATL	ATL 25	5	-4	2:21	Punt
5	JAX	JAX 16	8	56	3:32	Field goal +3
6	ATL	ATL 25	8	6	2:54	Punt
7	JAX	JAX 19	4	9	1:49	Punt
8	ATL	ATL 13	9	42	5:37	Defensive touchdown
9	ATL	ATL 25	2	0	0:11	Interception
10	JAX	ATL 16	4	4	2:00	Turnover on downs
11	ATL	ATL 12	7	24	1:22	Punt
12	JAX	JAX 20	5	15	0:58	End of half
13	ATL	ATL 25	10	75	3:22	Touchdown +7
14	JAX	JAX 25	9	21	4:14	Punt
15	ATL	ATL 7	9	47	4:27	Punt
16	JAX	JAX 10	13	75	7:21	Field goal +3
17	ATL	ATL 25	11	69	4:35	Turnover on downs
18	JAX	JAX 6	10	34	4:05	Field goal +3
19	ATL	ATL 25	4	19	0:28	Fumble
20	JAX	ATL 44	3	0	1:28	End of game

5 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 75 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Desmond Ridder	19/31	191	1	2	4	-19.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Bijan Robinson	14	105	7.5	3.7
Tyler Allgeier	7	16	2.3	-2.0
Desmond Ridder	1	6	6.0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jonnu Smith	6	6	95	0	20%	5.8
Bijan Robinson	5	5	32	0	17%	1.2
Drake London	3	7	28	1	23%	-9.2
Kyle Pitts	2	4	21	0	13%	-5.1
KhaDarel Hodge	2	2	19	0	7%	2.3
MyCole Pruitt	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7
Mack Hollins	0	3	0	0	10%	-1.7
Tyler Allgeier	1	2	-4	0	7%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Richie Grant	9	2	0.0
Nate Landman	6	2	0.0
Jessie Bates	4	3	0.0
David Onyemata	1	5	1.5
Mike Hughes	3	2	0.0
Bud Dupree	0	5	0.5
Kaden Elliss	2	2	0.0
Grady Jarrett	1	3	0.0
Dee Alford	3	1	0.0
A.J. Terrell	3	0	0.0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	23/30	207	1	0	2	4.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Travis Etienne	20	55	2.8	-5.5
Trevor Lawrence	8	42	5.3	2.3
Tank Bigsby	3	10	3.3	-1.4
D'Ernest Johnson	1	-2	-2.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian Kirk	8	12	84	0	40%	4.7
Evan Engram	7	8	59	0	27%	1.0
Calvin Ridley	2	2	38	1	7%	4.6
Travis Etienne	3	3	17	0	10%	1.3
Luke Farrell	2	2	10	0	7%	0.9
Jamycal Hasty	0	2	0	0	7%	-2.4
Tim Jones	1	1	-1	0	3%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	7	1	0.0	0	0
Chad Muma	3	4	0.0	0	2
Tyson Campbell	5	1	0.0	0	2
Darious Williams	4	1	0.0	1	3
Andre Cisco	4	0	0.0	1	1
Tre Herndon	2	1	0.0	0	1
Josh Hines-Allen	3	0	3.0	0	0
Angelo Blackson	1	1	0.0	0	0
Roy Robertson-Harris	1	1	0.0	0	0
Rayshawn Jenkins	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: JAX -3.5
Closing total: 42.5
ATL moneyline: +154
JAX moneyline: -185

Jaguars closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 30 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Wembley Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: ATL 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Arthur Smith vs Doug Pederson