For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · FirstEnergy Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 4
It turned at Q1 6:59, 3rd and 3, on Brandon Stephens — 15.1 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:59 · 3rd and 3
Brandon Stephens
Ravens
(6:59) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass deep left intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Stephens (10-A.Maulet) at BAL 38. 21-B.Stephens to CLE 10 for 52 yards (17-D.Thompson-Robinson).
Baltimore Ravens 28–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:59, Ravens +15.1% win probability on one snap.
15.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Browns at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.20 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.63 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.51 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — 1 giveaway, against Browns at 3 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(6:59) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass deep left intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Stephens (10-A.Maulet) at BAL 38. 21-B.Stephens to CLE 10 for 52 yards (17-D.Thompson-Robinson).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Lamar Jackson's 10-yard rushing touchdown with 6:42 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ravenscategory by categoryBrowns
Ravens ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.63 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 55 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Browns’s 64 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 4, Browns 2.
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.51.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's pass rate over expected, −11.6 pts, sat 11.0 points below their season number of −0.6 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 2.0 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
55 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
BAL's blitz rate sent turned over: 63.3% in week 3 against 18.6% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 3.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Ravens-11.6 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −11.0 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−2.02× that swing) · 55 snaps
Browns-2.8 ptsright on their number · +1.1 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 77%
Tendencies room →Ravens35.7%leaned — ran early · −16.7 vs their 52.4%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−1.69× that swing) · 42 early downs
Browns59.6%inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 53.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 49%
Tendencies room →Ravens11.5%inside their normal wobble · −8.5 vs their 20.0%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Browns18.6%right on their number · −4.2 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 103%
Fourth Down room →Ravens33.3%inside their normal wobble · +16.7 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±18.8 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Browns—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 36.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 63%
Tendencies room →Ravens18.6%right on their number · −5.1 vs their 23.7%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Browns19.2%inside their normal wobble · −10.3 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 37%
Tendencies room →Ravens20.9%inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Browns23.1%inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
BAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -11.6 pts, 11.0 points below their season mean of -0.6 pts and 2.0 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · BAL
15/19, 186 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
6.9 expected points added · +19.6% completion over expected
Passing · CLE
19/36, 121 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
-27.4 expected points added · -9.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Mark Andrews banked 16.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 28.1 | +9.6 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 15/19, 186 yd, 2 TD · 9 car, 27 yd, 2 TD |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Alpha Receiver | 25.0 | +16.6 | 69% | 81% | 28% | 33% | 5/5, 80 yd, 2 TD |
| David NjokuTE · Featured Receiver | 10.6 | +1.6 | 70% | 70% | 21% | 13% | 6/7, 46 yd |
| Jerome FordRB · Committee Back | 9.5 | −3.3 | 62% | 65% | 18% | 5% | 9 car, 26 yd · 5/6, 19 yd |
| Zay FlowersWR · Featured Receiver | 8.0 | +1.4 | 98% | 85% | 22% | 46% | 1 car, -6 yd · 3/4, 56 yd |
| Gus EdwardsRB · Committee Back | 6.9 | −4.3 | 69% | 65% | 17% | 0% | 15 car, 48 yd · 2/3, 1 yd |
| Melvin GordonRB | 5.4 | +2.6 | 19% | 12% | 6% | 11% | 3 car, 21 yd · 1/1, 23 yd |
| Pierre StrongRB | 4.9 | +2.4 | 13% | 9% | 0% | — | 5 car, 49 yd |
| Justice HillRB | 3.3 | +1.7 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Devin DuvernayWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | 0.0 | 60% | 62% | 11% | 3% | 2/2, 8 yd |
| Amari CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −6.4 | 81% | 79% | 18% | 40% | 1/6, 16 yd |
| Patrick RicardRB | 2.4 | +1.6 | 40% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 1/1, 14 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −4.6 | 83% | 79% | 12% | 9% | 1 car, -20 yd · 2/4, 20 yd |
| Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −3.0 | 90% | 81% | 12% | 16% | 1/4, 7 yd |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −1.1 | 22% | 16% | 6% | 0% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Cedric TillmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −4.1 | 20% | 19% | 9% | 13% | 1/3, 5 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −3.0 | 74% | 69% | 11% | 8% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Harrison BryantTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.2 | 17% | 12% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 2 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB · Starter QB | 1.2 | −10.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/36, 121 yd, 3 INT · 4 car, 24 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB | 1.2 | −1.1 | 22% | 16% | 0% | — | 5 car, 12 yd |
| Marquise GoodwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tyler HuntleyQB | 0.8 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Laquon TreadwellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 29% | 15% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 26% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:59) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass deep left intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Stephens (10-A.Maulet) at BAL 38. 21-B.Stephens to CLE 10 for 52 yards (17-D.Thompson-Robinson).
Q1 6:59 · Browns · 3rd & 3 at CLE 45 · gained nothing · -6.81 EP · −21.6% win probability
160 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 93 yards from the BAL 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Ravens6
Browns0Ravens7Browns0Ravens7Browns3How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Ravens13Browns3Ravens14Browns3Ravens20Browns3Ravens21Browns3Ravens27Browns3Ravens28Browns3Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Ravens at Browns, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 15/19 | 186 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +6.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 0 | −3.1 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 2 | −2.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 5 | 80 | 2 | 28% | +9.3 |
| Zay Flowers | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 | 22% | +3.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Arthur Maulet | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Patrick Queen | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Hamilton |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 19/36 | 121 | 0 | 3 | 4 | −27.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Strong |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_04_BAL_CLE
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -2 and covered, winning by 25.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 31 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Tyler Huntley | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 6% | +2.0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 6% | +2.3 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 11% | −1.3 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11% | −1.3 |
| Gus Edwards | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17% | −2.1 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Tavius Robinson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Broderick Washington | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Geno Stone | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Malik Harrison | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stephens | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 |
| 49 |
| 9.8 |
| 0 |
| +0.3 |
| Jerome Ford | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 | −4.7 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Kareem Hunt | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | -20 | -20.0 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku | 6 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 21% | +3.4 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 12% | −1.2 |
| Jerome Ford | 5 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 18% | −1.4 |
| Amari Cooper | 1 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 18% | −9.2 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 12% | −5.5 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | −0.8 |
| Cedric Tillman | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 9% | −2.8 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Walker | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Thornhill | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sione Takitaki | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Delpit | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Martin Emerson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Maurice Hurst | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Greg Newsome | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dalvin Tomlinson | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Ogbonnia Okoronkwo | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
