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2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

28

Cleveland Browns

3

BAL -2 ✓U 38.5 ✓

Baltimore Ravens 28–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:59, BAL +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CLE ↑BAL ↓
Q1 · 6:59BAL 0 — CLE 0CLE ball · 3rd & 3BAL 53%

(6:59) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass deep left intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Stephens (10-A.Maulet) at BAL 38. 21-B.Stephens to CLE 10 for 52 yards (17-D.Thompson-Robinson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 6:59BAL +15% win prob(6:59) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass deep left intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Stephens (10-A.Maulet) at BAL 38. 21-B.Stephens to CLE 10 for 52 yards (17-D.Thompson-Robinson).
  2. Q2 · 10:53BAL +10% win prob(10:53) 8-L.Jackson FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 39, touched at CLE 39, RECOVERED by CLE-90-M.Hurst at CLE 39.
  3. Q1 · 4:18CLE +8% win prob(4:18) (Shotgun) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 88-H.Bryant. 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete deep right to 2-A.Cooper. PENALTY on BAL-21-B.Stephens, Defensive Pass Interference, 37 yards, enforced at CLE 44 - No Play.
  4. Q1 · 4:11BAL +7% win prob(4:11) (Shotgun) 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 8-E.Moore left end pushed ob at BAL 39 for -20 yards (95-T.Robinson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:42BAL Touchdown

    (6:42) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 7 — CLE 0
  2. Q1 · 2:26CLE Field goal

    (2:26) 7-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    Score after this play: BAL 7 — CLE 3
  3. Q2 · 4:21BAL Touchdown

    (4:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-95-M.Garrett, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 14 — CLE 3
  4. Q2 · 0:17BAL Touchdown

    (:17) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 21 — CLE 3
  5. Q4 · 6:02BAL Touchdown

    (6:02) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 28 — CLE 3

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRavensBrowns
Offensive plays5564
Total yards296 (edge)167
Yards per play5.4 (edge)2.6
Expected points added / play0.03 (edge)-0.51
Success rate42% (edge)33%
Dropback rate47%67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.20 (edge)-0.63
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.11 (edge)-0.27
Third downs4/12 (edge)4/16
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps15 (edge)12
Sacks taken3 (edge)4
Turnovers1 (edge)3

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.51.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

15/19, 186 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.9 expected points added · +19.6% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB

19/36, 121 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-27.4 expected points added · -9.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Pierre StrongRB

5 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

15 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-3.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

5/5 for 80 yds, 2 TD

28% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

3/4 for 56 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BALBAL 245112:18Punt
2CLECLE 258323:06Punt
3BALBAL 20492:03Punt
4CLECLE 38370:51Interception
5BALCLE 102100:04Touchdown +7
6CLECLE 25984:17Field goal +3
7BALBAL 265-31:40Punt
8CLECLE 28442:07Punt
9BALBAL 225352:45Fumble
10CLECLE 397162:07Punt
11BALBAL 79934:24Touchdown +7
12CLECLE 25541:33Punt
13BALBAL 2611942:34Touchdown +7
14CLECLE 25200:11End of half
15CLECLE 257-162:42Punt
16BALCLE 468-24:24Punt
17CLECLE 89213:53Punt
18BALBAL 36492:04Punt
19CLECLE 47213:34Punt
20BALBAL 37401:35Punt
21CLECLE 157162:12Interception
22BALCLE 387383:40Touchdown +7
23CLECLE 25511:22Punt
24BALBAL 35422:19Punt
25CLECLE 296532:15Interception

5 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 94 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson15/191862036.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Gus Edwards15483.20-3.1
Justice Hill33311.002.1
Lamar Jackson9273.02-2.4
Melvin Gordon3217.000.2
Tyler Huntley284.00-0.9
Zay Flowers1-6-6.00-0.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mark Andrews5580228%9.3
Zay Flowers3456022%3.8
Melvin Gordon112306%2.0
Patrick Ricard111406%2.3
Devin Duvernay228011%-1.3
Nelson Agholor124011%-1.3
Gus Edwards231017%-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Roquan Smith640.002
Arthur Maulet320.001
Patrick Queen411.001
Kyle Hamilton400.011
Tavius Robinson310.000
Broderick Washington301.000
Geno Stone210.011
Malik Harrison210.000
Nnamdi Madubuike111.000
Brandon Stephens200.011

Cleveland Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Dorian Thompson-Robinson19/36121034-27.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Pierre Strong5499.800.3
Jerome Ford9262.90-4.7
Dorian Thompson-Robinson4246.000.2
Kareem Hunt5122.40-1.1
Harrison Bryant122.002.1
Elijah Moore1-20-20.00-2.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
David Njoku6746021%3.4
Elijah Moore2420012%-1.2
Jerome Ford5619018%-1.4
Amari Cooper1616018%-9.2
Donovan Peoples-Jones147012%-5.5
Jordan Akins12606%-0.8
Cedric Tillman13509%-2.8
Harrison Bryant11203%-0.4
Marquise Goodwin11003%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Anthony Walker630.000
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah620.000
Juan Thornhill430.000
Sione Takitaki410.000
Grant Delpit220.000
Martin Emerson310.001
Maurice Hurst120.001
Greg Newsome210.001
Dalvin Tomlinson120.500
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo201.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -2
Closing total
38.5
BAL moneyline
-135
CLE moneyline
+114

Ravens closed -2 and covered, winning by 25.

Total closed 38.5; the game landed 31 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
71°F, wind 7 mph
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
BAL 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Kevin Stefanski

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.