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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Bengals144 of 154 plays carry both curves
(7:56) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins pushed ob at CIN 37 for 38 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
Swing +11.7 for TitansExpected points +3.17 for TitansThe model had Titans 15 points higher than the market did.play 55
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 7:56TEN +12% win prob(7:56) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins pushed ob at CIN 37 for 38 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
1st · 2:05CIN +8% win prob(2:05) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at CIN 35 for -11 yards (sack split by 92-B.Hill and 91-T.Hendrickson).
2nd · 6:36TEN +7% win prob(6:36) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:34TEN +7% win prob(5:34) 17-R.Tannehill FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 23, recovered by TEN-32-T.Spears at TEN 23. 32-T.Spears to TEN 49 for 26 yards (23-D.Hill).
2nd · 14:12CIN +7% win prob(14:12) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 41 for -8 yards (sack split by 98-J.Simmons and 96-D.Autry).
1st · 1:27TEN +5% win prob(1:27) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine's 13-yard touchdown catch with 6:36 left in the 2nd put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:15Evan McPherson·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder B.Robbins · snap C.Adomitis+33–0
1st1:27Nick Folk·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+33–3
2nd6:36Nick Westbrook-Ikhine·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan TannehillLead never changed again+73–10
3rd4:41Nick Folk·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+33–27
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryTitans
Bengals1–7Titans
212Total yards401
4.2Yards per play6.6
52%Success rate48%
22%Third-down rate62%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
2Explosive plays10
13First downs20
3Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Titans ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.23Bengals: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.20Titans: +0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.32Bengals: −0.32 expected points added per play
+0.36Titans: +0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Bengals: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.04Titans: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 50 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Titans’s 61 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 1, Titans 5.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's sack or hit rate, 28.6%, sat 16.1 points above their season number of 12.5% — they got home by 2.4 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 26 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.1 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Titans28.6%
off script — got home · +16.1 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+2.39× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteTEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.6%, 16.1 points above their season mean of 12.5% and 2.4 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Tannehill pass+12% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(7:56) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins pushed ob at CIN 37 for 38 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
Q2 7:56 · Titans · 3rd & 7 at TEN 25 · gained 38 · +3.17 EP · +12.4% win probability
142 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 154 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 142 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 80 yards from the TEN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
154 of 154 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
154
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
46%
Yards
611
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.1067%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.1266%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.3637%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.0213%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Bengals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Bengals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Bengals3Titans0
Field goal13 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Titans 3
Bengals3Titans3
Field goal16 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Bengals 24
The period ended8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 46
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 41 to the Titans 43
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 9 to the Bengals 28
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Bengals3Titans9
Bengals3Titans10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Titans 22 to the Bengals 13
Punt5 plays
Bengals3Titans16
Bengals3Titans17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Bengals 29
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 47
Bengals3Titans23
Bengals3Titans24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Bengals 2
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter31 plays
Bengals3Titans27
Field goal20 plays, from the Titans 18 to the Bengals 17
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Titans 37
The period ended4 plays, from the Titans 45 to the Titans 48
4th quarter32 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 13 to the Bengals 19
Intercepted5 plays, from the Titans 41 to the Bengals 46
The period ended13 plays, from the Bengals 9 to the Titans 29
The period ended8 plays, from the Titans 36 to the Bengals 18
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
