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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 4
It turned at Q2 7:56, 3rd and 7, on DeAndre Hopkins — 11.7 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tennessee Titans 27–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 7:56, Titans +11.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:56 · 3rd and 7
DeAndre Hopkins
Titans
(7:56) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins pushed ob at CIN 37 for 38 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
11.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Titans won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Bengals at 2 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Titans won this one — 8 of 13 on third down, against Bengals at 2 of 9 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Titans won this one — +0.36 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -0.32 expected points per dropback.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Titans won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.23 expected points per snap.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(7:56) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins pushed ob at CIN 37 for 38 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine's 13-yard touchdown catch with 6:36 left in the 2nd put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan TannehillLead never changed again+73–106 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Bengalscategory by categoryTitans
Titans ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 50 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Titans’s 61 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 1, Titans 5.
Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
TEN's sack or hit rate, 28.6%, sat 16.1 points above their season number of 12.5% — they got home by 2.4 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points. · +2.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 26 pts
Over Expected room →Bengals2.5 ptsright on their number · −3.2 vs their 5.7 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 50 snaps
Titans-4.0 ptsright on their number · +1.3 vs their -5.2 pts, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 88%
Tendencies room →Bengals65.0%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 63.1%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 40 early downs
Titans42.6%leaned — ran early · −8.9 vs their 51.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 52%
Tendencies room →Bengals11.4%inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Titans25.8%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 26.4%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32% to 107%
Fourth Down room →Bengals0.0%leaned — took the kick · −29.6 vs their 29.6%, and they swing ±20.8 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Titans—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.6%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 51%
Tendencies room →Bengals25.8%right on their number · +1.2 vs their 24.6%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Titans34.3%leaned — sent pressure · +13.7 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.66× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 35%
Tendencies room →Bengals22.6%inside their normal wobble · +6.1 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Titans28.6%off script — got home · +16.1 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+2.39× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
TEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.6%, 16.1 points above their season mean of 12.5% and 2.4 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · TEN
18/25, 240 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
7.2 expected points added · +10.9% completion over expected
Passing · CIN
20/30, 165 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-8.8 expected points added · +6.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Derrick Henry banked 9.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 24.4 | +9.9 | 59% | 42% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd, 1 TD · 22 car, 122 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 11 yd |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Featured Receiver | 16.1 | +6.5 | 83% | 94% | 23% | 20% | 5/6, 51 yd, 1 TD |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.3 | +2.2 | 94% | 100% | 33% | 25% | 7/9, 73 yd |
| Ryan TannehillQB · Starter QB | 12.7 | −1.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/25, 240 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 11 yd |
| Josh WhyleTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | +4.2 | 29% | 23% | 8% | 5% | 2/2, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Featured Receiver | 10.3 | −1.3 | 53% | 71% | 23% | 35% | 4/6, 63 yd |
| Tyjae SpearsRB · Receiving Back | 8.8 | +1.2 | 53% | 65% | 15% | 0% | 5 car, 40 yd · 3/4, 18 yd |
| Joe MixonRB · Bell Cow Back | 8.6 | −0.2 | 79% | 71% | 4% | 0% | 14 car, 67 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Tyler BoydWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.6 | −3.0 | 91% | 94% | 26% | 56% | 4/7, 26 yd |
| Chigoziem OkonkwoTE | 5.9 | +0.9 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Chris MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +0.1 | 79% | 74% | 12% | 25% | 1/3, 44 yd |
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 4.7 | −5.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/30, 165 yd · 3 car, 1 yd |
| Tee HigginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −4.5 | 51% | 51% | 15% | 20% | 2/4, 19 yd |
| Tanner HudsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +1.0 | 43% | 54% | 7% | 7% | 2/2, 18 yd |
| Trenton IrwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +1.4 | 42% | 43% | 4% | 6% | 1/1, 17 yd |
| Mitchell WilcoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.7 | 36% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Drew SampleTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | −0.3 | 32% | 29% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, -1 yd |
| Chase BrownRB | 0.7 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Trayveon WilliamsRB | 0.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Andrei IosivasWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | 17% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Colton DowellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.8 | 23% | 19% | 4% | 12% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mason KinseyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:56) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins pushed ob at CIN 37 for 38 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
Q2 7:56 · Titans · 3rd & 7 at TEN 25 · gained 38 · +3.17 EP · +12.4% win probability
142 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 154 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 142 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 149. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 80 yards from the TEN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
154 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
154 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bengals3
Titans0Bengals3Titans3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Bengals3Titans9Bengals3Titans10Bengals3Titans16Bengals3Titans17Bengals3Titans23Bengals3Titans24Bengals3Titans27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bengals at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 20/30 | 165 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −8.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Joe Burrow |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 7 | 9 | 73 | 0 | 33% | +4.8 |
| Tyler Boyd | 4 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 26% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Scott | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dax Hill | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Germaine Pratt |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 18/25 | 240 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +7.2 |
| Derrick Henry | 1/1 | 2 | 1 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_04_CIN_TEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 30 — under by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.3 |
| 0 |
| −2.3 |
| −3.4 |
| Tee Higgins | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 15% | −0.4 |
| Tanner Hudson | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 7% | +1.2 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 4% | +2.1 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.4 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 4% | −1.2 |
| Chase Brown | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Cam Taylor-Britt | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trey Hendrickson | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Wilson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chidobe Awuzie | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Hubbard | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Murphy | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hilton | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +3.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 22 | 122 | 5.5 | 1 | +2.6 |
| Tyjae Spears | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 | −6.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 6 | 63 | 0 | 23% | +5.5 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 5 | 6 | 51 | 1 | 23% | +1.7 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 12% | +0.7 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 12% | +0.5 |
| Josh Whyle | 2 | 2 | 26 | 1 | 8% | +4.5 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 15% | +4.1 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Colton Dowell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −2.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gibbens | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Roger McCreary | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Hooker | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Denico Autry | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kristian Fulton | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Harold Landry | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
