2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · Nissan Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals

Tennessee TitansWinner

CIN -2.5 upsetU 41.5 ✓Bengals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tennessee Titans 27–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 7:56, TEN +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 7:56CIN 3 — TEN 3TEN ball · 3rd & 7CIN 59%

(7:56) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins pushed ob at CIN 37 for 38 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 7:56TEN +12% win prob(7:56) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins pushed ob at CIN 37 for 38 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
Q1 · 2:05CIN +8% win prob(2:05) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at CIN 35 for -11 yards (sack split by 92-B.Hill and 91-T.Hendrickson).
Q2 · 6:36TEN +7% win prob(6:36) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 5:34TEN +7% win prob(5:34) 17-R.Tannehill FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 23, recovered by TEN-32-T.Spears at TEN 23. 32-T.Spears to TEN 49 for 26 yards (23-D.Hill).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:15CIN Field goal
(9:15) 2-E.McPherson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Score after this play: CIN 3 — TEN 0
Q1 · 1:27TEN Field goal
(1:27) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: CIN 3 — TEN 3
Q2 · 6:36TEN Touchdown
(6:36) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 3 — TEN 10
Q2 · 4:06TEN Touchdown
(4:06) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 3 — TEN 17
Q2 · 0:14TEN Touchdown
(:14) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry pass short middle to 81-J.Whyle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 3 — TEN 24
Q3 · 4:41TEN Field goal
(4:41) 6-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: CIN 3 — TEN 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Titans
Offensive plays	50	61
Total yards	212	401 (edge)
Yards per play	4.2	6.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.23	0.20 (edge)
Success rate	52% (edge)	48%
Dropback rate	70%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.32	0.36 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03	0.04 (edge)
Third downs	2/9	8/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.23.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

18/25, 240 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

7.2 expected points added · +10.9% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

20/30, 165 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-8.8 expected points added · +6.5% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

22 att, 122 yds, 1 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

14 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

7/9 for 73 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

DeAndre HopkinsWR

4/6 for 63 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 25	12	72	5:48	Field goal +3
2	TEN	TEN 25	16	40	7:48	Field goal +3
3	CIN	CIN 25	9	9	3:00	Fumble
4	TEN	TEN 41	4	7	1:46	Punt
5	CIN	CIN 9	5	19	2:13	Punt
6	TEN	TEN 22	6	78	2:54	Touchdown +7
7	CIN	CIN 25	5	-1	0:52	Punt
8	TEN	TEN 27	5	73	1:41	Touchdown +7
9	CIN	CIN 25	7	22	2:38	Punt
10	TEN	TEN 20	8	75	1:10	Touchdown +7
11	CIN	CIN 36	2	0	0:10	End of half
12	TEN	TEN 18	16	62	10:22	Field goal +3
13	CIN	CIN 25	7	30	3:21	Fumble
14	TEN	TEN 45	4	7	1:31	Punt
15	CIN	CIN 13	4	6	1:32	Punt
16	TEN	TEN 41	5	13	2:43	Interception
17	CIN	CIN 9	12	55	5:41	Turnover on downs
18	TEN	TEN 36	7	46	4:50	End of game

6 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 78 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	20/30	165	0	0	3	-8.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	14	67	4.8	-0.3
Trayveon Williams	1	4	4.0	-0.1
Joe Burrow	3	1	0.3	-2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	7	9	73	33%	4.8
Tyler Boyd	4	7	26	26%	-3.4
Tee Higgins	2	4	19	15%	-0.4
Tanner Hudson	2	2	18	7%	1.2
Trenton Irwin	1	1	17	4%	2.1
Joe Mixon	1	1	9	4%	0.6
Mitchell Wilcox	1	1	7	4%	0.4
Drew Sample	1	1	-1	4%	-1.2
Chase Brown	1	1	-3	4%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nick Scott	5	2	0.0	0	0
Dax Hill	2	5	0.0	1	1
Germaine Pratt	5	1	0.0	0	0
Cam Taylor-Britt	4	2	0.0	0	0
Trey Hendrickson	2	3	0.5	0	0
Logan Wilson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	3	0	0.0	0	0
Sam Hubbard	3	0	1.0	0	0
Myles Murphy	2	1	1.0	0	0
Mike Hilton	1	1	0.0	0	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	18/25	240	1	1	3	7.2
Derrick Henry	1/1	2	1	0	0	3.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	22	122	5.5	1	2.6
Tyjae Spears	5	40	8.0	0	1.6
Ryan Tannehill	6	11	1.8	0	-6.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	4	6	63	0	23%	5.5
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	5	6	51	1	23%	1.7
Chris Moore	1	3	44	0	12%	0.7
Chigoziem Okonkwo	3	3	29	0	12%	0.5
Josh Whyle	2	2	26	1	8%	4.5
Tyjae Spears	3	4	18	0	15%	4.1
Derrick Henry	1	1	11	0	4%	0.7
Colton Dowell	0	1	0	0	4%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jack Gibbens	3	6	0.0	1
Azeez Al-Shaair	3	4	0.0	2
Roger McCreary	3	2	0.0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	2	2	0.0	0
Amani Hooker	3	1	0.0	1
Denico Autry	0	4	0.5	0
Kevin Byard	3	0	0.0	0
Jeffery Simmons	1	1	0.5	0
Kristian Fulton	2	0	0.0	1
Harold Landry	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -2.5
Closing total: 41.5
CIN moneyline: -162
TEN moneyline: +136

Bengals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 30 — under by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 82°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: CIN 6 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Mike Vrabel