For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · Soldier Field

Denver BroncosWinner

31

Chicago Bears

28

DEN -3 pushO 47 ✓

Denver Broncos 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 7:05, DEN +39% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CHI ↑DEN ↓
Q4 · 7:05DEN 27 — CHI 28CHI ball · 1st & 10CHI 89%

(7:05) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 42 for -10 yards (42-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (42-N.Bonitto), RECOVERED by DEN-0-J.Cooper at CHI 35. 0-J.Cooper for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 7:05DEN +39% win prob(7:05) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 42 for -10 yards (42-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (42-N.Bonitto), RECOVERED by DEN-0-J.Cooper at CHI 35. 0-J.Cooper for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 2:52CHI +20% win prob(2:52) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 19-M.Mims to CHI 33 for 48 yards (32-T.Smith).
  3. Q4 · 2:57DEN +17% win prob(2:57) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert left tackle to DEN 18 for no gain (49-A.Singleton).
  4. Q4 · 0:50DEN +17% win prob(:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short left [93-D.Jones]. PENALTY on CHI-1-J.Fields, Intentional Grounding, 11 yards, enforced at 50.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 5:15DEN Touchdown

    (5:15) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 38-J.McLaughlin for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — CHI 0
  2. Q2 · 15:00CHI Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — CHI 7
  3. Q2 · 11:50CHI Touchdown

    (11:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 85-C.Kmet for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — CHI 14
  4. Q2 · 6:15CHI Touchdown

    (6:15) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 85-C.Kmet for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — CHI 21
  5. Q3 · 4:18CHI Touchdown

    (4:18) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 24-K.Herbert for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — CHI 28
  6. Q3 · 0:20DEN Touchdown

    (:20) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-B.Johnson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 14 — CHI 28
  7. Q4 · 9:40DEN Touchdown

    (9:40) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 21 — CHI 28
  8. Q4 · 7:05DEN Touchdown

    (7:05) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 42 for -10 yards (42-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (42-N.Bonitto), RECOVERED by DEN-0-J.Cooper at CHI 35. 0-J.Cooper for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 28 — CHI 28
  9. Q4 · 1:51DEN Field goal

    (1:51) 16-W.Lutz 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: DEN 31 — CHI 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBroncosBears
Offensive plays4770
Total yards312471 (edge)
Yards per play6.66.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.35 (edge)0.10
Success rate53% (edge)49%
Dropback rate66%59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.48 (edge)0.22
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.10 (edge)-0.07
Third downs6/11 (edge)6/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)611 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1526 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)4
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Bears outgained Broncos 471–312 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

28/35, 335 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

7.1 expected points added · +21.1% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

21/28, 223 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

14.2 expected points added · +13.6% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Khalil HerbertRB

18 att, 103 yds, 0 TD

-3.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Jaleel McLaughlinRB

7 att, 72 yds, 0 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

D.J. MooreWR

8/9 for 131 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 10.3 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Cole KmetTE

7/9 for 85 yds, 2 TD

28% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 257253:40Punt
2DENDEN 1612696:12Touchdown +7
3CHICHI 2511755:15Touchdown +7
4DENDEN 4521:53Punt
5CHIDEN 444491:16Touchdown +7
6DENDEN 256253:09Punt
7CHICHI 156752:27Touchdown +7
8DENDEN 257243:39Punt
9CHICHI 167412:29Turnover on downs
10DENDEN 25591:23Punt
11CHICHI 3416769:26Touchdown +7
12DENDEN 259653:57Touchdown +7
13CHICHI 25551:18Punt
14DENDEN 3411704:20Touchdown +7
15CHICHI 256102:41Defensive touchdown
16CHICHI 2512824:03Turnover on downs
17DENDEN 195481:06Field goal +3
18CHICHI 258331:14Interception
19DENDEN 41100:32End of game

8 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 82 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Russell Wilson21/2822330114.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jaleel McLaughlin77210.303.8
Russell Wilson4133.301.4
Samaje Perine6122.00-1.2
Javonte Williams200.00-1.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jerry Jeudy3552019%2.7
Marvin Mims224708%1.5
Jaleel McLaughlin3332112%5.4
Courtland Sutton3527119%1.7
Samaje Perine222308%0.7
Lil'Jordan Humphrey111104%2.0
Chris Manhertz111004%1.1
Javonte Williams339012%-0.8
Nate Adkins22808%1.8
Brandon Johnson11414%1.1
Adam Trautman01004%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alex Singleton380.000
Delarrin Turner-Yell800.001
Kareem Jackson520.011
Drew Sanders420.000
Jonathon Cooper231.000
Ja'Quan McMillian230.000
Damarri Mathis410.000
Zach Allen040.500
Patrick Surtain300.002
Nik Bonitto212.500

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Fields28/353354147.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Khalil Herbert181035.70-3.4
Justin Fields4256.300.8
Tyler Scott2199.501.4
Roschon Johnson5132.60-1.0
Velus Jones11010.00-0.0
Cole Kmet111.001.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
D.J. Moore89131128%10.3
Cole Kmet7985228%4.4
Darnell Mooney4451013%4.4
Equanimeous St. Brown112103%1.1
Khalil Herbert4519116%0.7
Robert Tonyan221806%0.7
Marcedes Lewis11803%0.5
Roschon Johnson11203%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
T.J. Edwards520.000
Tremaine Edmunds420.000
Justin Jones220.000
Jack Sanborn310.000
Jaquan Brisker310.000
Terell Smith310.001
Tyrique Stevenson300.000
DeMarcus Walker110.000
Velus Jones100.000
Travis Homer100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DEN -3
Closing total
47
DEN moneyline
-162
CHI moneyline
+136

Broncos closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 47; the game landed 59 — over by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
80°F, wind 2 mph
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
DEN 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Matt Eberflus