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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
Denver Broncos 31, Bears 28 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 7:05, 1st and 10, on Justin Fields — 38.6 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:05 · 1st and 10
Justin Fields
Broncos
(7:05) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 42 for -10 yards (42-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (42-N.Bonitto), RECOVERED by DEN-0-J.Cooper at CHI 35. 0-J.Cooper for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Broncos closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Denver Broncos 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 7:05, Broncos +38.6% win probability on one snap.
38.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Khalil HerbertBroncosQ4 2:57(2:57) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert left tackle to DEN 18 for no gain (49-A.Singleton).
16.8pts
Marvin MimsBroncosQ4 2:52(2:52) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 19-M.Mims to CHI 33 for 48 yards (32-T.Smith).
20.0pts
What separated them
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Bears at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 11 chunk plays, against Broncos at 6 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — no giveaways, against Bears at 2 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.35 expected points per snap, against Bears at +0.10 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Broncos157 of 168 plays carry both curves
(7:05) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 42 for -10 yards (42-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (42-N.Bonitto), RECOVERED by DEN-0-J.Cooper at CHI 35. 0-J.Cooper for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −38.6 for BearsExpected points −9.70 for BearsThe model had Bears 2 points higher than the market did.play 134
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:05DEN +39% win prob(7:05) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 42 for -10 yards (42-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (42-N.Bonitto), RECOVERED by DEN-0-J.Cooper at CHI 35. 0-J.Cooper for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:52CHI +20% win prob(2:52) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 19-M.Mims to CHI 33 for 48 yards (32-T.Smith).
4th · 2:57DEN +17% win prob(2:57) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert left tackle to DEN 18 for no gain (49-A.Singleton).
4th · 0:50DEN +17% win prob(:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short left [93-D.Jones]. PENALTY on CHI-1-J.Fields, Intentional Grounding, 11 yards, enforced at 50.
2nd · 11:50CHI +15% win prob(11:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 85-C.Kmet for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:49CHI +13% win prob(5:49) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles left end to CHI 45 for 20 yards (0-J.Cooper). DEN-0-J.Cooper was injured during the play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Wil Lutz's 51-yard field goal with 1:51 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st5:15Jaleel McLaughlin·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+77–0
4th1:51Wil Lutz·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.FraboniLead never changed again+331–28
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryBears
Broncos5–4Bears
312Total yards471
6.6Yards per play6.7
53%Success rate49%
55%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays11
15First downs26
1Sacks taken4
0Turnovers2
The read
Broncos ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.35Broncos: +0.35 expected points added per play
+0.10Bears: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.48Broncos: +0.48 expected points added per play
+0.22Bears: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.10Broncos: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.07Bears: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 47 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Bears’s 70 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 3, Bears 5.
NoteBears outgained Broncos 471-312 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DEN's play-action rate, 38.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 3.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
DEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 3.6% in week 3 against 24.4% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 9 pts
leaned — got home · +9.4 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.44× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Bears12.9%
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteDEN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 38.7%, 17.6 points above their season mean of 21.1% and 2.0 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
69Mike McGlincheyT · Every snap100%48 snaps
77Quinn MeinerzG · Every snap100%48 snaps
74Ben PowersG · Every snap100%48 snaps
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%48 snaps
79Lloyd CushenberryC · Every snap100%48 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Every snap100%48 snaps
82Adam TrautmanTE · Full-time88%42 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Full-time83%40 snaps
10Jerry JeudyWR · Heavy rotation63%30 snaps
25Samaje PerineRB · Rotational46%22 snaps
84Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational44%21 snaps
19Marvin MimsWR · Rotational35%17 snaps
89Brandon JohnsonWR · Rotational35%17 snaps
38Jaleel McLaughlinRB · Rotational33%16 snaps
20Michael BurtonFB · Situational23%11 snaps
17Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Situational21%10 snaps
33Javonte WilliamsRB · Situational17%8 snaps
45Nate AdkinsTE · Situational13%6 snaps
Inactive · 7
Alex ForsythCRonnie PerkinsDEJustin SimmonsFSJosey JewellILBMike PurcellNTFrank ClarkOLBJ.L. SkinnerSS
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Jarrett StidhamQBCameron FlemingT
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
58Darnell WrightT · Every snap100%72 snaps
75Larry BoromT · Every snap100%72 snaps
65Cody WhitehairG · Every snap100%72 snaps
62Lucas PatrickC · Every snap100%72 snaps
64Nate DavisG · Every snap100%72 snaps
1Justin FieldsQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
2D.J. MooreWR · Full-time93%67 snaps
24Khalil HerbertRB · Heavy rotation78%56 snaps
11Darnell MooneyWR · Heavy rotation75%54 snaps
85Cole KmetTE · Heavy rotation74%53 snaps
19Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Heavy rotation58%42 snaps
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Fields sacked−33% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(7:05) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 42 for -10 yards (42-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (42-N.Bonitto), RECOVERED by DEN-0-J.Cooper at CHI 35. 0-J.Cooper for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 7:05 · Bears · 1st & 10 at DEN 48 · lost 17 · -9.70 EP · −33.0% win probability
155 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 85 yards from the CHI 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
42%
Yards
782
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.2563%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.5276%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.0136%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.6562%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.2760%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.470%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bears2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter30 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 25 to midfield
Broncos6Bears0
Broncos7Bears0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Broncos 16 to the Bears 18
The period ended10 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Broncos 43
2nd quarter47 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Broncos7Bears6
Broncos7Bears7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 4 to the Broncos 7
Broncos7Bears13
Broncos7Bears14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Broncos 44 to the Broncos 22
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 45
Broncos7Bears20
Broncos7Bears21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Broncos 3
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 44
The period ended10 plays, from the Bears 16 to the Broncos 48
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 34
Broncos7Bears27
Broncos7Bears28
Touchdown16 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Broncos 2
Broncos13Bears28
Broncos14Bears28
Touchdown10 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Bears 4
The period ended4 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 30
4th quarter55 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Bears 32 to the Bears 35
Broncos20Bears28
Broncos21Bears28
Touchdown12 plays, from the Broncos 34 to the Bears 13
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Broncos27Bears28
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Broncos 48
Broncos28Bears28
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
The period ended16 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Broncos 18
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Broncos31Bears28
Field goal6 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Bears 32
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown away.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Bears 25 to midfield
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Broncos -3
Closing total
47
Broncos moneyline
-162
Bears moneyline
+136
Broncos closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 47; the game landed 59 — over by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 75°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the south-east; clear.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Broncos 7 days · Bears 7 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Matt Eberflus
2nd · 15:00
CHI +12% win prob
(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 0:38DEN +11% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep middle intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Jackson at DEN 36. 22-K.Jackson to DEN 41 for 5 yards.
