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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:05 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · Soldier Field
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 4
It turned at Q4 7:05, 1st and 10, on Justin Fields — 38.6 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Denver Broncos 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 7:05, Broncos +38.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:05 · 1st and 10
Justin Fields
Broncos
(7:05) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 42 for -10 yards (42-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (42-N.Bonitto), RECOVERED by DEN-0-J.Cooper at CHI 35. 0-J.Cooper for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
38.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Bears at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 11 chunk plays, against Broncos at 6 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — no giveaways, against Bears at 2 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.35 expected points per snap, against Bears at +0.10 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
(7:05) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 42 for -10 yards (42-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (42-N.Bonitto), RECOVERED by DEN-0-J.Cooper at CHI 35. 0-J.Cooper for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Wil Lutz's 51-yard field goal with 1:51 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Wil Lutz51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.FraboniLead never changed again+331–289 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryBears
Broncos ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 47 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Bears’s 70 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 3, Bears 5.
Bears outgained Broncos 471-312 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
DEN's play-action rate, 38.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
DEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 3.6% in week 3 against 24.4% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 9 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos-1.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · +2.5 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 47 snaps
Bears-1.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their -5.1 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 70 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 29% to 79%
Tendencies room →Broncos58.3%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 56.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 36 early downs
Bears52.7%right on their number · +1.6 vs their 51.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 43%
Tendencies room →Broncos38.7%off script — faked the run · +17.6 vs their 21.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+2.02× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Bears31.7%leaned — faked the run · +8.4 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 92%
Fourth Down room →Broncos—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.6%.
Bears50.0%inside their normal wobble · +10.1 vs their 39.9%, and they swing ±19.9 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 65%
Tendencies room →Broncos17.1%leaned — sat back · −14.8 vs their 31.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Bears25.8%right on their number · +4.5 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 32%
Tendencies room →Broncos24.4%leaned — got home · +9.4 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.44× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Bears12.9%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
DEN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 38.7%, 17.6 points above their season mean of 21.1% and 2.0 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · CHI
28/35, 335 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
7.1 expected points added · +21.1% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
21/28, 223 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
14.2 expected points added · +13.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
D.J. Moore banked 11.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin FieldsQB · Starter QB | 27.9 | +7.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/35, 335 yd, 4 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 25 yd |
| Cole KmetTE · Alpha Receiver | 27.6 | +9.2 | 74% | 71% | 28% | 32% | 1 car, 1 yd · 7/9, 85 yd, 2 TD |
| D.J. MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 27.1 | +11.5 | 93% | 95% | 28% | 50% | 8/9, 131 yd, 1 TD |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 22.2 | +6.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/28, 223 yd, 3 TD · 4 car, 13 yd |
| Khalil HerbertRB · Committee Back | 22.2 | +3.4 | 78% | 76% | 16% | 0% | 18 car, 103 yd · 4/5, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB · Committee Back | 19.4 | +11.3 | 33% | 29% | 12% | 0% | 7 car, 72 yd · 3/3, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Featured Receiver | 11.7 | +0.8 | 83% | 94% | 19% | 27% | 3/5, 27 yd, 1 TD |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.1 | +2.8 | 75% | 90% | 13% | 13% | 4/4, 51 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Featured Receiver | 8.2 | +0.5 | 63% | 77% | 19% | 53% | 3/5, 52 yd |
| Brandon JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.4 | +4.2 | 35% | 39% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 4 yd, 1 TD |
| Marvin MimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | +3.5 | 35% | 39% | 8% | 18% | 2/2, 47 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB | 5.5 | −0.3 | 46% | 45% | 8% | 1% | 6 car, 12 yd · 2/2, 23 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Receiving Back | 3.9 | −1.7 | 17% | 19% | 12% | 0% | 2 car, 0 yd · 3/3, 9 yd |
| Robert TonyanTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +0.8 | 26% | 27% | 6% | 1% | 2/2, 18 yd |
| Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +1.4 | 58% | 54% | 3% | 8% | 1/1, 21 yd |
| Nate AdkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Roschon JohnsonRB | 2.5 | −3.7 | 22% | 24% | 3% | 0% | 5 car, 13 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.6 | 21% | 23% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.4 | 44% | 29% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Tyler ScottWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.8 | 19% | 17% | 0% | — | 2 car, 19 yd |
| Marcedes LewisTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.3 | 29% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Velus JonesRB | 1.0 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Travis HomerRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Trent TaylorWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Michael BurtonRB | 0.0 | — | 23% | 13% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 88% | 84% | 4% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:05) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 42 for -10 yards (42-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (42-N.Bonitto), RECOVERED by DEN-0-J.Cooper at CHI 35. 0-J.Cooper for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 7:05 · Bears · 1st & 10 at DEN 48 · lost 17 · -9.70 EP · −33.0% win probability
155 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 85 yards from the CHI 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Broncos6
Bears0Broncos7Bears0How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Broncos7Bears6Broncos7Bears7Broncos7Bears13Broncos7Bears14Broncos7Bears20Broncos7Bears21Broncos7Bears27Broncos7Bears28Broncos13Bears28Broncos14Bears28Broncos20Bears28Broncos21Bears28How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Broncos27Bears28Broncos28Bears28How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Broncos31Bears28How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown away.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Bears, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 21/28 | 223 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +14.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 7 | 72 | 10.3 | 0 | +3.8 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Samaje Perine |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 5 | 52 | 0 | 19% | +2.7 |
| Marvin Mims | 2 | 2 | 47 | 0 | 8% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 3 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Delarrin Turner-Yell | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kareem Jackson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 28/35 | 335 | 4 | 1 | 4 | +7.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_04_DEN_CHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 47; the game landed 59 — over by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
| 6 |
| 12 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.2 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.7 |
| +1.5 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 12% | +5.4 |
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 5 | 27 | 1 | 19% | +1.7 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 8% | +0.7 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +2.0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +1.1 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 12% | −0.8 |
| Nate Adkins | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 8% | +1.8 |
| Brandon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4% | +1.1 |
| Adam Trautman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Drew Sanders | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Quan McMillian | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damarri Mathis | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Allen | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Nik Bonitto | 2 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 18 | 103 | 5.7 | 0 | −3.4 |
| Justin Fields | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Tyler Scott | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Roschon Johnson | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Velus Jones | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Moore | 8 | 9 | 131 | 1 | 28% | +10.3 |
| Cole Kmet | 7 | 9 | 85 | 2 | 28% | +4.4 |
| Darnell Mooney | 4 | 4 | 51 | 0 | 13% | +4.4 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 3% | +1.1 |
| Khalil Herbert | 4 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 16% | +0.7 |
| Robert Tonyan | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 6% | +0.7 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Roschon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Edwards | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Jones | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Sanborn | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaquan Brisker | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terell Smith | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyrique Stevenson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarcus Walker | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Velus Jones | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
