For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Detroit Lions 34, Packers 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 9:04, 3rd and 5, on Sam LaPorta — 13.0 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:04 · 3rd and 5
Sam LaPorta
Lions
(9:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to GB 24 for 35 yards (20-R.Ford).
Lions closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Detroit Lions 34–20. Biggest swing: Q1 9:04, Lions +13.0% win probability on one snap.
13.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Rudy FordPackersQ1 13:44(13:44) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 14-A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Ford at DET 37. 20-R.Ford ran ob at DET 16 for 21 yards (16-J.Goff).
9.9pts
Josh ReynoldsLionsQ1 6:23(6:23) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds to GB 25 for 23 yards (20-R.Ford).
7.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Lions won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Packers at 3 chunk plays.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Lions won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Packers at -0.22 expected points per snap.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Packers at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +0.11 expected points per dropback, against Packers at -0.28 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Lions167 of 177 plays carry both curves
(9:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to GB 24 for 35 yards (20-R.Ford).
Swing −13.0 for PackersExpected points −3.59 for PackersThe model had Packers 15 points higher than the market did.play 16
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:04GB +13% win prob(9:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to GB 24 for 35 yards (20-R.Ford).
1st · 13:44DET +10% win prob(13:44) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 14-A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Ford at DET 37. 20-R.Ford ran ob at DET 16 for 21 yards (16-J.Goff).
1st · 6:23GB +8% win prob(6:23) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds to GB 25 for 23 yards (20-R.Ford).
1st · 13:25DET +6% win prob(13:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at DET 25 for -9 yards (97-A.Hutchinson).
4th · 14:57GB +5% win prob(14:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 14:01DET +5% win prob(14:01) 10-J.Love pass deep middle intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Jacobs (34-A.Anzalone) at GB 27. 23-J.Jacobs to GB 7 for 20 yards (9-C.Watson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Amon-Ra St. Brown's 24-yard touchdown catch with 8:22 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:03Anders Carlson·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+30–3
1st8:22Amon-Ra St. Brown·24-yd TD catch24-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared GoffLead never changed again+77–3
4th2:56Anders Carlson·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+334–20
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryPackers
Lions9–0Packers
402Total yards232
5.6Yards per play4.2
49%Success rate38%
41%Third-down rate27%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
10Explosive plays3
24First downs13
2Sacks taken5
1Turnovers2
The read
Lions ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Lions: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.22Packers: −0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.11Lions: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.28Packers: −0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.16Lions: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.04Packers: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 72 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against Packers’s 55 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Lions 7, Packers 4.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
GB's early-down pass rate, 73.2%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 5.7 points clear of the next team along.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
DET's blitz rate sent, 11.9%, sat 23.5 points below their season number of 35.4% — they sat back by 2.3 times their own 10.3-point weekly swing.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.3 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Packers19.4%
right on their number · +2.8 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteDET's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 11.9%, 23.5 points below their season mean of 35.4% and 2.3 times their own 10.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass+13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to GB 24 for 35 yards (20-R.Ford).
Q1 9:04 · Lions · 3rd & 5 at DET 41 · gained 35 · +3.59 EP · +13.5% win probability
165 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 86 yards from the GB 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
43%
Yards
633
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.1683%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.0456%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.2532%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.3858%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.1420%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.0820%
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted4 plays
Lions0Packers3
Field goal4 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Lions6Packers3
Lions7Packers3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Packers 24
Punt6 plays
Lions13Packers3
Lions14Packers3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 45 to the Packers 3
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Packers 28
The period ended3 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Packers 49
2nd quarter50 plays
Lions17Packers3
Field goal5 plays, from the Packers 9 to the Packers 4
Intercepted2 plays
Lions23Packers3
Lions24Packers3
Touchdown3 plays, from the Packers 7 to the Packers 2
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 30
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 40
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 8 to the Packers 24
Lions27Packers3
Field goal13 plays, from the Lions 24 to the Packers 19
The period ended8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Lions 47
3rd quarter35 plays
Lions27Packers9
Lions27Packers11
Touchdown15 plays, from the Packers 14 to the Lions 1
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Lions 30
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 34
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 11 to the Lions 28
The period ended4 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Packers 47
4th quarter51 plays
Lions27Packers17
Touchdown3 plays
Lions33Packers17
Lions34Packers17
Touchdown18 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Packers 1
Intercepted9 plays, from the Packers 17 to the Lions 14
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 18 to the Lions 32
Lions34Packers20
Field goal4 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Lions 32
The period ended10 plays, from the Packers 47 to the Packers 19
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
