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2023 Week 4 · Thu, Sep 28, 2023 · Lambeau Field

Detroit LionsWinner

34

Green Bay Packers

20

DET -2.5 ✓O 45 ✓

Detroit Lions 34–20. Biggest swing: Q1 9:04, GB +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3GB ↑DET ↓
Q1 · 9:04DET 0 — GB 3DET ball · 3rd & 5GB 52%

(9:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to GB 24 for 35 yards (20-R.Ford).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 9:04GB +13% win prob(9:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to GB 24 for 35 yards (20-R.Ford).
  2. Q1 · 13:44DET +10% win prob(13:44) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 14-A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Ford at DET 37. 20-R.Ford ran ob at DET 16 for 21 yards (16-J.Goff).
  3. Q1 · 6:23GB +8% win prob(6:23) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds to GB 25 for 23 yards (20-R.Ford).
  4. Q1 · 13:25DET +6% win prob(13:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at DET 25 for -9 yards (97-A.Hutchinson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:03GB Field goal

    (12:03) 17-A.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: DET 0 — GB 3
  2. Q1 · 8:22DET Touchdown

    (8:22) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 7 — GB 3
  3. Q1 · 2:58DET Touchdown

    (2:58) 5-D.Montgomery left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 14 — GB 3
  4. Q2 · 14:10DET Field goal

    (14:10) 36-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: DET 17 — GB 3
  5. Q2 · 13:22DET Touchdown

    (13:22) (No Huddle) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 24 — GB 3
  6. Q2 · 0:38DET Field goal

    (:38) 36-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: DET 27 — GB 3
  7. Q3 · 8:22GB Touchdown

    (8:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 9-C.Watson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: DET 27 — GB 11
  8. Q4 · 14:57GB Touchdown

    (14:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: DET 27 — GB 17
  9. Q4 · 6:03DET Touchdown

    (6:03) 5-D.Montgomery right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 34 — GB 17
  10. Q4 · 2:56GB Field goal

    (2:56) 17-A.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: DET 34 — GB 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricLionsPackers
Offensive plays7255
Total yards402 (edge)232
Yards per play5.6 (edge)4.2
Expected points added / play0.14 (edge)-0.22
Success rate49% (edge)38%
Dropback rate43%76%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.11 (edge)-0.28
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.16 (edge)-0.04
Third downs7/17 (edge)3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps24 (edge)13
Sacks taken2 (edge)5
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.22.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

23/36, 246 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-11.6 expected points added · +3.4% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

19/28, 210 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.5 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

David MontgomeryRB

32 att, 121 yds, 3 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

8 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Romeo DoubsWR

9/13 for 95 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · -0.7 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Josh ReynoldsWR

3/6 for 69 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DETDET 254-21:26Interception
2GBDET 16401:35Field goal +3
3DETDET 259753:43Touchdown +7
4GBGB 205-61:06Punt
5DETDET 459554:16Touchdown +7
6GBGB 21571:34Punt
7DETDET 256712:13Field goal +3
8GBGB 10200:16Interception
9DETGB 7370:32Touchdown +7
10GBGB 25531:41Punt
11DETDET 305212:31Punt
12GBGB 86113:33Punt
13DETDET 2412575:00Field goal +3
14GBGB 25580:34End of half
15GBGB 1414676:43Touchdown +8
16DETDET 27512:01Punt
17GBGB 30441:23Punt
18DETDET 117163:59Punt
19GBGB 346661:02Touchdown +6
20DETDET 2516698:52Touchdown +7
21GBGB 179691:55Interception
22DETDET 18540:33Punt
23GBDET 35430:40Field goal +3
24DETGB 477282:52End of game

10 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 75 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff19/282101122.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
David Montgomery321213.833.7
Jahmyr Gibbs8405.000.3
Kalif Raymond14040.002.5
Jared Goff2105.00-2.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Josh Reynolds3669022%3.2
Amon-Ra St. Brown5756126%1.2
Sam LaPorta4556019%4.6
David Montgomery222007%1.4
Jahmyr Gibbs4511019%-1.6
Marvin Jones01004%-0.4
Kalif Raymond11-204%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Derrick Barnes240.000
Jerry Jacobs500.024
Brian Branch320.001
Alex Anzalone320.001
Tracy Walker III220.000
John Cominsky221.000
Will Harris210.000
Ifeatu Melifonwu210.000
Aidan Hutchinson111.500
Chase Lucas200.000

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love23/36246125-11.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones5183.600.9
A.J. Dillon5112.20-0.9
Jordan Love2-2-1.01-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Romeo Doubs91395038%-0.7
Jayden Reed3555015%2.8
Samori Toure113503%2.2
Josiah Deguara4434012%0.1
Christian Watson2425112%-4.8
Tucker Kraft22506%-0.7
Luke Musgrave11103%-0.4
A.J. Dillon01003%-1.0
Dontayvion Wicks01003%-1.2
Aaron Jones12-406%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Quay Walker890.000
Rudy Ford710.011
Isaiah McDuffie340.000
Eric Wilson410.000
Darnell Savage320.000
Colby Wooden220.000
Rasul Douglas400.000
Devonte Wyatt311.000
Preston Smith210.000
Tedarrell Slaton120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -2.5
Closing total
45
DET moneyline
-142
GB moneyline
+120

Lions closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 45; the game landed 54 — over by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
64°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Alan Eck
Rest
DET 4 days · GB 4 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Matt LaFleur

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.