2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · MetLife Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

New York Jets

KC -9.5 no coverO 41.5 ✓Chiefs closed -9.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 7:30, KC +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 7:30KC 23 — NYJ 20NYJ ball · 2nd & 9KC 73%

(7:30) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 46, RECOVERED by KC-98-T.Wharton at NYJ 47.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 7:30KC +16% win prob(7:30) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 46, RECOVERED by KC-98-T.Wharton at NYJ 47.
Q3 · 10:44NYJ +11% win prob(10:44) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 10-A.Lazard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 6:21NYJ +8% win prob(6:21) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to NYJ 35 for 25 yards (0-A.Amos). PENALTY on NYJ-57-C.Mosley, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 35.
Q4 · 13:34NYJ +6% win prob(13:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice to NYJ 25 for 18 yards (4-D.Reed).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:39KC Field goal
(11:39) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 3 — NYJ 0
Q1 · 8:41KC Touchdown
(8:41) 10-I.Pacheco left tackle for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 10 — NYJ 0
Q1 · 3:32KC Touchdown
(3:32) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 83-N.Gray for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 17 — NYJ 0
Q2 · 13:27NYJ Safety
(13:27) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling (3-J.Whitehead) [47-B.Huff]. PENALTY on KC-74-J.Taylor, Face Mask, 7 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play.
Score after this play: KC 17 — NYJ 2
Q2 · 9:53NYJ Field goal
(9:53) 9-G.Zuerlein 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: KC 17 — NYJ 5
Q2 · 6:31NYJ Touchdown
(6:31) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 17 — NYJ 12
Q2 · 2:18KC Field goal
(2:18) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 20 — NYJ 12
Q3 · 10:44NYJ Touchdown
(10:44) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 10-A.Lazard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: KC 20 — NYJ 20
Q4 · 10:54KC Field goal
(10:54) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 23 — NYJ 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Jets
Offensive plays	64	58
Total yards	403 (edge)	338
Yards per play	6.3 (edge)	5.8
Expected points added / play	0.17 (edge)	0.02
Success rate	48% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	55%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.24 (edge)	0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08 (edge)	-0.16
Third downs	7/12 (edge)	5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

28/39, 245 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.6 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

18/30, 203 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

0.6 expected points added · -4.4% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

20 att, 115 yds, 1 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

6 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Allen LazardWR

3/3 for 61 yds, 1 TD

8% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

6/9 for 60 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 25	9	42	3:25	Field goal +3
2	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	5	1:00	Punt
3	KC	KC 31	6	69	2:03	Touchdown +7
4	NYJ	NYJ 21	6	20	2:20	Punt
5	KC	KC 11	7	89	2:48	Touchdown +7
6	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	18	4:13	Punt
7	KC	KC 4	2	3	0:51	Safety
8	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	62	3:30	Field goal +3
9	KC	KC 25	2	0	0:08	Interception
10	NYJ	KC 41	8	31	3:16	Touchdown +7
11	KC	KC 25	11	56	4:11	Field goal +3
12	NYJ	NYJ 25	10	41	1:49	Missed field goal
13	KC	KC 42	1	0	0:08	Interception
14	NYJ	NYJ 35	3	7	0:18	End of half
15	NYJ	NYJ 25	9	77	4:20	Touchdown +8
16	KC	KC 25	5	-6	1:46	Punt
17	NYJ	NYJ 47	4	4	1:33	Punt
18	KC	KC 12	5	20	2:02	Punt
19	NYJ	NYJ 15	5	47	2:05	Punt
20	KC	KC 12	14	75	7:23	Field goal +3
21	NYJ	NYJ 25	7	26	3:27	Fumble
22	KC	NYJ 47	15	55	7:24	End of game

8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 89 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	18/30	203	1	2	1	0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Isiah Pacheco	20	115	5.8	1	2.2
Patrick Mahomes	7	51	7.3	0	2.2
Skyy Moore	2	19	9.5	0	1.3
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	3	12	4.0	0	-0.3
Jerick McKinnon	3	7	2.3	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	6	9	60	0	31%	2.8
Isiah Pacheco	3	3	43	0	10%	2.3
Noah Gray	1	3	34	1	10%	-0.4
Rashee Rice	3	5	32	0	17%	-0.2
Kadarius Toney	2	2	22	0	7%	2.4
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1	2	6	0	7%	0.2
Justin Watson	1	1	5	0	3%	0.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.5
Skyy Moore	0	2	0	0	7%	-2.2
Jerick McKinnon	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Drue Tranquill	7	1	0.0	0
Trent McDuffie	5	1	0.0	0
Leo Chenal	3	2	0.0	0
Michael Danna	2	2	0.0	1
Willie Gay	3	1	0.0	1
L'Jarius Sneed	1	2	0.0	0
Mike Edwards	3	0	1.0	1
Chris Jones	2	1	1.0	0
Bryan Cook	1	1	0.0	0
Joshua Williams	2	0	0.0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Zach Wilson	28/39	245	2	0	2	3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Breece Hall	6	56	9.3	1.5
Dalvin Cook	5	16	3.2	-0.4
Zach Wilson	2	14	7.0	-3.8
Xavier Gipson	2	13	6.5	0.1
Michael Carter	1	9	9.0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Lazard	3	3	61	1	8%	6.1
Garrett Wilson	9	14	60	0	36%	-0.0
Tyler Conklin	4	6	58	0	15%	-0.7
Jeremy Ruckert	2	2	26	0	5%	1.6
Breece Hall	3	4	13	0	10%	1.1
Michael Carter	2	3	12	0	8%	-0.4
Randall Cobb	2	4	8	0	10%	-1.6
Xavier Gipson	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.5
Dalvin Cook	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.8
C.J. Uzomah	1	1	1	1	3%	0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Quincy Williams	9	3	0.0	0	2
C.J. Mosley	4	7	0.0	1	1
D.J. Reed	4	3	0.0	0	0
Michael Carter	2	2	0.0	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	2	2	0.0	0	0
Quinnen Williams	2	1	0.5	0	0
Adrian Amos	3	0	0.0	0	0
Quinton Jefferson	2	1	0.5	0	0
Ahmad Gardner	1	1	0.0	0	0
Micheal Clemons	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -9.5
Closing total: 41.5
KC moneyline: -485
NYJ moneyline: +370

Chiefs closed -9.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 43 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 69°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: KC 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Robert Saleh