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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Kansas City Chiefs 23, Jets 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 7:30, 2nd and 9 — 15.8 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:30 · 2nd and 9
Unnamed on the sheet
Chiefs
(7:30) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 46, RECOVERED by KC-98-T.Wharton at NYJ 47.
15.8
Chiefs closed -9.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 7:30, Chiefs +15.8% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Allen LazardJetsQ3 10:44(10:44) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 10-A.Lazard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.6pts
Patrick MahomesChiefsQ4 6:21(6:21) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to NYJ 35 for 25 yards (0-A.Amos). PENALTY on NYJ-57-C.Mosley, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 35.
8.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Chiefs at 0 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Jets at 5 of 12 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.16 expected points per carry.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Chiefs159 of 169 plays carry both curves
(7:30) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 46, RECOVERED by KC-98-T.Wharton at NYJ 47.
Swing −15.8 for JetsExpected points −5.00 for JetsThe model had Jets 16 points higher than the market did.play 147
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:30KC +16% win prob(7:30) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 46, RECOVERED by KC-98-T.Wharton at NYJ 47.
3rd · 10:44NYJ +11% win prob(10:44) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 10-A.Lazard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 6:21NYJ +8% win prob(6:21) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to NYJ 35 for 25 yards (0-A.Amos). PENALTY on NYJ-57-C.Mosley, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 35.
4th · 13:34NYJ +6% win prob(13:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice to NYJ 25 for 18 yards (4-D.Reed).
1st · 8:41NYJ +6% win prob(8:41) 10-I.Pacheco left tackle for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 5:19NYJ +6% win prob(5:19) 20-Bre.Hall right end to KC 42 for 43 yards (6-B.Cook).
3rd · 9:58
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Harrison Butker's 26-yard field goal with 10:54 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:39Harrison Butker·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+33–0
4th10:54Harrison Butker·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+323–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryJets
Chiefs7–2Jets
403Total yards338
6.3Yards per play5.8
48%Success rate40%
58%Third-down rate42%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays7
20First downs18
1Sacks taken2
2Turnovers1
The read
Chiefs ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jets, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Chiefs: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.02Jets: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.24Chiefs: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.09Jets: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Chiefs: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.16Jets: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 64 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Jets’s 58 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 6, Jets 3.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
NYJ's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 22 team-games charted in week 4 — 16.7 points clear of the next team along.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 24 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Jets22.9%
inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteKC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 48.1%, 14.4 points below their season mean of 62.5% and 1.8 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
79Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%70 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%70 snaps
74Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%70 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%70 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%70 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Heavy rotation79%55 snaps
84Justin WatsonWR · Heavy rotation61%43 snaps
10Isiah PachecoRB · Heavy rotation60%42 snaps
24Skyy MooreWR · Heavy rotation59%41 snaps
11Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation54%38 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Z.Wilson FUMBLES−24% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(7:30) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 46, RECOVERED by KC-98-T.Wharton at NYJ 47.
Q4 7:30 · Jets · 2nd & 9 at KC 49 · gained nothing · -5.00 EP · −23.6% win probability
157 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 89 yards from the KC 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
39%
Yards
739
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.0152%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.2473%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11-0.5436%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+1.8344%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.4367%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.3675%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Chiefs3Jets0
Field goal9 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Jets 17
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 30
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Chiefs9Jets0
Chiefs10Jets0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 31 to the Jets 48
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 21 to the Jets 41
Chiefs16Jets0
Chiefs17Jets0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 11 to the Jets 33
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 38
2nd quarter54 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Jets 32 to the Jets 43
Chiefs17Jets2
Drive ended3 plays, from the Chiefs 4 to the Chiefs 7
Chiefs17Jets5
Field goal9 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Chiefs 13
Intercepted2 plays
Chiefs17Jets11
Chiefs17Jets12
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 41 to the Chiefs 1
Chiefs20Jets12
Field goal11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Jets 19
The period ended11 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Chiefs 34
Intercepted1 play
The period ended6 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 49
3rd quarter36 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Chiefs20Jets18
Chiefs20Jets20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Chiefs 10
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 47 to the Chiefs 49
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 12 to the Chiefs 32
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Chiefs 42
The period ended7 plays, from the Chiefs 12 to the Chiefs 35
4th quarter38 plays
Chiefs23Jets20
Field goal9 plays, from the Chiefs 40 to the Jets 8
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Chiefs 49
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
The period ended22 plays, from the Jets 47 to the Jets 2
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
