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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Raiders167 of 174 plays carry both curves
(2:39) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short right intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Samuel at LAC 3. 26-A.Samuel to LAC 11 for 8 yards.
Swing +24.2 for ChargersExpected points +6.57 for ChargersModel and market agree here.play 165
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:39LV +24% win prob(2:39) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short right intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Samuel at LAC 3. 26-A.Samuel to LAC 11 for 8 yards.
4th · 2:47LAC +17% win prob(2:47) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at LAC 3 for 19 yards (43-M.Davis).
1st · 14:50LAC +11% win prob(14:50) (Shotgun) 12-D.Davis right end to LV 35 for 51 yards (25-T.Moehrig).
4th · 3:34LV +10% win prob(3:34) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to LAC 34 for no gain (98-M.Crosby).
1st · 10:44LAC +8% win prob(10:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:48LV +7% win prob(9:48) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell sacked at LV 34 for -7 yards (56-M.Fox). FUMBLES (56-M.Fox), RECOVERED by LAC-94-C.Rumph at LV 36. 94-C.Rumph to LV 36 for no gain (22-A.Abdullah). LAC-56-M.Fox credited with a Sack, but not a Forced Fumble.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cameron Dicker's 33-yard field goal with 10:45 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Chargers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.17Raiders: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.03Chargers: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.26Raiders: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.02Chargers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Raiders: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.10Chargers: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 69 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Chargers’s 59 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 5, Chargers 4.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's early-down pass rate turned over: 78.0% in week 3 against 45.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
LAC's blitz rate sent turned over: 38.2% in week 3 against 15.2% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.3 points.
LAC's pass rate over expected turned over: +19.4 pts in week 3 against −3.0 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · −0.5 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Chargers17.4%
inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteLAC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 45.5%, 14.8 points below their season mean of 60.3% and 1.6 times their own 9.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.O'Connell pass−24% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:39) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short right intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Samuel at LAC 3. 26-A.Samuel to LAC 11 for 8 yards.
Q4 2:39 · Raiders · 1st & goal at LAC 3 · gained nothing · -6.57 EP · −23.7% win probability
165 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 86 yards from the LAC 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
39%
Yards
569
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.2778%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.0863%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR23-0.0148%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.4623%
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.4717%
Chargers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR5+0.7020%
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Chargers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Raiders0Chargers6
Raiders0Chargers7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chargers 14 to the Raiders 12
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 30
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 18 to the Chargers 41
Raiders6Chargers7
Raiders7Chargers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Raiders 36 to the Chargers 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 27
2nd quarter49 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Raiders7Chargers10
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 34 to the Raiders 7
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Raiders 37 to the Raiders 41
Raiders7Chargers16
Raiders7Chargers17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Raiders 36 to the Raiders 7
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 48
Raiders7Chargers23
Raiders7Chargers24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Raiders 1
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 28 to the Chargers 34
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Raiders 33
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 34
Punt4 plays
Raiders10Chargers24
Field goal13 plays, from the Raiders 48 to the Chargers 4
Intercepted8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to midfield
The period ended6 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Raiders 46
4th quarter49 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Chargers 18
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 13 to the Chargers 15
Raiders16Chargers24
Raiders17Chargers24
Touchdown14 plays, from the Raiders 40 to the Chargers 1
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxTen defenders
The period ended7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 34
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Chargers 34 to the Chargers 3
The period ended9 plays, from the Chargers 11 to the Raiders 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
