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2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · SoFi Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders

17

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

24

LAC -7 pushU 49 ✓Dome

Los Angeles Chargers 24–17. Biggest swing: Q4 2:39, LV +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LAC ↑LV ↓
Q4 · 2:39LV 17 — LAC 24LV ball · 1st & 3LAC 71%

(2:39) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short right intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Samuel at LAC 3. 26-A.Samuel to LAC 11 for 8 yards.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 2:39LV +24% win prob(2:39) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short right intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Samuel at LAC 3. 26-A.Samuel to LAC 11 for 8 yards.
  2. Q4 · 2:47LAC +17% win prob(2:47) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at LAC 3 for 19 yards (43-M.Davis).
  3. Q1 · 14:50LAC +11% win prob(14:50) (Shotgun) 12-D.Davis right end to LV 35 for 51 yards (25-T.Moehrig).
  4. Q4 · 3:34LV +10% win prob(3:34) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to LAC 34 for no gain (98-M.Crosby).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:44LAC Touchdown

    (10:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 0 — LAC 7
  2. Q1 · 0:48LV Touchdown

    (:48) 4-A.O'Connell up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 7 — LAC 7
  3. Q2 · 10:45LAC Field goal

    (10:45) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LV 7 — LAC 10
  4. Q2 · 7:23LAC Touchdown

    (7:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 7 — LAC 17
  5. Q2 · 3:06LAC Touchdown

    (3:06) 10-J.Herbert up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 7 — LAC 24
  6. Q3 · 4:54LV Field goal

    (4:54) 2-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LV 10 — LAC 24
  7. Q4 · 4:04LV Touchdown

    (4:04) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 17 — LAC 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRaidersChargers
Offensive plays6959
Total yards264316 (edge)
Yards per play3.85.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.17-0.03 (edge)
Success rate45% (edge)34%
Dropback rate67%53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.260.02 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.01 (edge)-0.10
Third downs1/115/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)38 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps19 (edge)13
Sacks taken72 (edge)
Turnovers31 (edge)

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Aidan O'ConnellQB

24/39, 238 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-11.8 expected points added · -8.1% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

13/24, 167 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-3.7 expected points added · -7.3% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Joshua KelleyRB

17 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

17 att, 58 yds, 1 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Josh JacobsRB

8/11 for 81 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Josh PalmerWR

3/8 for 77 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · -3.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LACLAC 1411814:22Touchdown +7
2LVLV 255-42:03Punt
3LACLAC 186233:05Punt
4LVLV 369604:45Touchdown +7
5LACLAC 2513605:03Field goal +3
6LVLV 374-11:03Fumble
7LACLV 366212:19Touchdown +7
8LVLV 255102:05Fumble
9LACLV 357302:10Touchdown +7
10LVLV 255-21:02Punt
11LACLAC 28460:52Punt
12LVLV 244190:51Punt
13LACLAC 21100:20End of half
14LVLV 25552:45Punt
15LACLAC 54-20:55Punt
16LVLV 4813386:29Field goal +3
17LACLAC 258352:52Interception
18LVLV 2413536:22Punt
19LACLAC 13422:09Punt
20LVLV 4013554:29Touchdown +7
21LACLAC 25590:29Turnover on downs
22LVLAC 346310:57Interception
23LACLAC 116512:33End of game

7 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 81 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aidan O'Connell24/39238017-11.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs17583.410.6
Zamir White3155.000.1
Aidan O'Connell331.01-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Josh Jacobs81181029%5.0
Davante Adams81375034%7.7
Jakobi Meyers2433011%-5.7
Ameer Abdullah221405%0.3
Jakob Johnson121205%1.0
Hunter Renfrow2412011%0.2
Austin Hooper121105%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Maxx Crosby432.000
John Jenkins410.001
Robert Spillane230.000
Trevon Moehrig500.012
Marcus Peters310.001
Divine Deablo310.000
Adam Butler210.000
David Long300.001
Ameer Abdullah200.000
Isaac Rochell200.000

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert13/24167112-3.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Joshua Kelley17653.80-1.1
Derius Davis35117.002.3
Justin Herbert12272.320.6
Isaiah Spiller5122.40-2.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Josh Palmer3877033%-3.2
Keenan Allen3532121%3.5
Quentin Johnston1318013%0.0
Derius Davis221608%0.2
Isaiah Spiller221508%0.9
Gerald Everett22908%-0.3
Donald Parham01004%-0.6
Stone Smartt01004%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Khalil Mack726.001
Michael Davis800.000
Eric Kendricks420.000
Asante Samuel500.011
Kenneth Murray220.001
Tuli Tuipulotu310.000
Dean Marlowe400.000
Ja'Sir Taylor300.000
Raheem Layne120.000
Sebastian Joseph210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -7
Closing total
49
LV moneyline
+250
LAC moneyline
-310

Chargers closed -7 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 49; the game landed 41 — under by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
LV 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches
Josh McDaniels vs Brandon Staley

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.