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2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · SoFi Stadium
17
24
Los Angeles Chargers 24–17. Biggest swing: Q4 2:39, LV +24% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(2:39) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short right intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Samuel at LAC 3. 26-A.Samuel to LAC 11 for 8 yards.
How the points landed
(10:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 0 — LAC 7(:48) 4-A.O'Connell up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 7 — LAC 7(10:45) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: LV 7 — LAC 10(7:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 7 — LAC 17(3:06) 10-J.Herbert up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 7 — LAC 24(4:54) 2-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: LV 10 — LAC 24(4:04) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 17 — LAC 24Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Raiders | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 69 | 59 |
| Total yards | 264 | 316 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 3.8 | 5.4 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.17 | -0.03 (edge) |
| Success rate | 45% (edge) | 34% |
| Dropback rate | 67% | 53% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.26 | 0.02 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.01 (edge) | -0.10 |
| Third downs | 1/11 | 5/13 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 3 | 8 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 19 (edge) | 13 |
| Sacks taken | 7 | 2 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 3 | 1 (edge) |
Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
24/39, 238 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-11.8 expected points added · -8.1% completion over expected
Passing · LAC
13/24, 167 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-3.7 expected points added · -7.3% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | LAC 14 | 11 | 81 | 4:22 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | LV | LV 25 | 5 | -4 | 2:03 | Punt | |
| 3 | LAC | LAC 18 | 6 | 23 | 3:05 | Punt | |
| 4 | LV | LV 36 | 9 | 60 | 4:45 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 5 | LAC | LAC 25 | 13 | 60 | 5:03 | Field goal +3 | |
| 6 | LV | LV 37 | 4 | -1 | 1:03 | Fumble | |
| 7 | LAC | LV 36 | 6 | 21 | 2:19 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 8 | LV | LV 25 | 5 | 10 | 2:05 | Fumble | |
| 9 | LAC | LV 35 | 7 | 30 | 2:10 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 10 | LV | LV 25 | 5 | -2 | 1:02 | Punt | |
| 11 | LAC | LAC 28 | 4 | 6 | 0:52 | Punt | |
| 12 | LV | LV 24 | 4 | 19 | 0:51 | Punt | |
| 13 | LAC | LAC 21 | 1 | 0 | 0:20 | End of half | |
| 14 | LV | LV 25 | 5 | 5 | 2:45 | Punt | |
| 15 | LAC | LAC 5 | 4 | -2 | 0:55 | Punt | |
| 16 | LV | LV 48 | 13 | 38 | 6:29 | Field goal +3 | |
| 17 | LAC | LAC 25 | 8 | 35 | 2:52 | Interception | |
| 18 | LV | LV 24 | 13 | 53 | 6:22 | Punt | |
| 19 | LAC | LAC 13 | 4 | 2 | 2:09 | Punt | |
| 20 | LV | LV 40 | 13 | 55 | 4:29 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 21 | LAC | LAC 25 | 5 | 9 | 0:29 | Turnover on downs | |
| 22 | LV | LAC 34 | 6 | 31 | 0:57 | Interception | |
| 23 | LAC | LAC 11 | 6 | 51 | 2:33 | End of game |
7 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 81 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 24/39 | 238 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -11.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 1 | 0.6 |
| Zamir White | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 8 | 11 | 81 | 0 | 29% | 5.0 |
| Davante Adams | 8 | 13 | 75 | 0 | 34% | 7.7 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 11% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxx Crosby | 4 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Jenkins | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Robert Spillane | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Moehrig |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 13/24 | 167 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Kelley | 17 | 65 | 3.8 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -7 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 49; the game landed 41 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| -5.7 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 5% | 0.3 |
| Jakob Johnson | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 5% | 1.0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 11% | 0.2 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5% | -0.1 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| Marcus Peters | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Divine Deablo | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Butler | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Long | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Rochell | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -1.1 |
| Derius Davis | 3 | 51 | 17.0 | 0 | 2.3 |
| Justin Herbert | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 2 | 0.6 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 | -2.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Palmer | 3 | 8 | 77 | 0 | 33% | -3.2 |
| Keenan Allen | 3 | 5 | 32 | 1 | 21% | 3.5 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 13% | 0.0 |
| Derius Davis | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 8% | 0.2 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 8% | 0.9 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8% | -0.3 |
| Donald Parham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -0.6 |
| Stone Smartt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Mack | 7 | 2 | 6.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Davis | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Kendricks | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asante Samuel | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kenneth Murray | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tuli Tuipulotu | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Marlowe | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Sir Taylor | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Raheem Layne | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sebastian Joseph | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
