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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:50 AM ET · 16 to play
Buffalo Bills 48, Dolphins 20 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 3:12, 2nd and 6, on Stefon Diggs — 9.9 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 3:12 · 2nd and 6
Stefon Diggs
Bills
(3:12) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-4-K.Kohou, Illegal Contact, declined.
Bills closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 28.
Buffalo Bills 48–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 3:12, Bills +9.9% win probability on one snap.
9.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Stefon DiggsBillsQ1 11:10(11:10) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs ran ob at MIA 33 for 17 yards. PENALTY on MIA-4-K.Kohou, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 33.
8.2pts
Josh AllenBillsQ2 12:08(12:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 14-S.Diggs. PENALTY on MIA-4-K.Kohou, Defensive Pass Interference, 43 yards, enforced at BUF 37 - No Play.
7.8pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.74 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.09 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 3 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.44 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.01 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 5 of 9 on third down, against Dolphins at 3 of 10 on third down.
(3:12) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-4-K.Kohou, Illegal Contact, declined.
Swing +9.9 for BillsExpected points +5.58 for BillsModel and market agree here.play 72
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 3:12BUF +10% win prob(3:12) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-4-K.Kohou, Illegal Contact, declined.
1st · 11:10BUF +8% win prob(11:10) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs ran ob at MIA 33 for 17 yards. PENALTY on MIA-4-K.Kohou, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 33.
2nd · 12:08BUF +8% win prob(12:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 14-S.Diggs. PENALTY on MIA-4-K.Kohou, Defensive Pass Interference, 43 yards, enforced at BUF 37 - No Play.
2nd · 15:00BUF +6% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 31-R.Mostert to BUF 27 for 22 yards (27-T.White).
2nd · 2:20MIA +6% win prob(2:20) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert right tackle to MIA 32 for -2 yards (58-M.Milano). FUMBLES (58-M.Milano), touched at MIA 32, RECOVERED by BUF-43-T.Bernard at MIA 31.
2nd · 10:07BUF +6% win prob(10:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [2-B.Chubb].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Stefon Diggs's 11-yard touchdown catch with 10:07 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Bills ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.74 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Dolphins: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.44Bills: +0.44 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.09Dolphins: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.74Bills: +0.74 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.19Dolphins: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.06Bills: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 59 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Bills’s 52 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 4, Bills 7.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.44 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's early-down pass rate turned over: 35.6% in week 3 against 66.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
MIA's sack or hit rate turned over: 33.3% in week 3 against 10.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 24 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.6 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Bills21.4%
inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteBUF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 34.5%, 14.3 points above their season mean of 20.1% and 1.4 times their own 10.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass+9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:10) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs ran ob at MIA 33 for 17 yards. PENALTY on MIA-4-K.Kohou, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 33.
Q1 11:10 · Bills · 2nd & 8 at 50 · gained 17 · +2.54 EP · +9.3% win probability
153 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 80 yards from the BUF 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
47%
Yards
807
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.1245%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.0671%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR23+0.1874%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+1.2371%
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Dolphins0Bills6
Dolphins0Bills7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Dolphins 18
Dolphins6Bills7
Dolphins7Bills7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Bills 3
Dolphins7Bills13
Dolphins7Bills14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Dolphins 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to midfield
2nd quarter51 plays
Dolphins13Bills14
Dolphins14Bills14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 49 to the Bills 10
Dolphins14Bills20
Dolphins14Bills21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 21 to the Dolphins 6
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 22 to the Dolphins 26
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Dolphins 46
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 6 to the Dolphins 14
Dolphins14Bills27
Dolphins14Bills28
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bills 41 to the Bills 45
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 34
Dolphins14Bills31
Field goal5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 31
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Dolphins20Bills31
Touchdown13 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bills 11
Dolphins20Bills34
Field goal8 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Dolphins 12
Intercepted3 plays
Dolphins20Bills40
Dolphins20Bills41
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 13
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bills 47
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter36 plays
Dolphins20Bills47
Dolphins20Bills48
Touchdown2 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bills 6
Punt4 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Bills 29
The period ended8 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Bills 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
