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2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · New Era Field
20
48
Buffalo Bills 48–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 3:12, BUF +10% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(3:12) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-4-K.Kohou, Illegal Contact, declined.
How the points landed
(10:46) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 0 — BUF 7(6:35) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 7 — BUF 7(1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 7 — BUF 14(12:52) 28-D.Achane left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 14 — BUF 14(10:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [2-B.Chubb]. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 14 — BUF 21(3:12) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-4-K.Kohou, Illegal Contact, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 14 — BUF 28(1:44) 2-T.Bass 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: MIA 14 — BUF 31(9:34) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 0-B.Berrios for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: MIA 20 — BUF 31(5:25) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: MIA 20 — BUF 34(3:04) (Shotgun) 76-D.Edwards reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 20 — BUF 41(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 20 — BUF 48Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Dolphins | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 59 | 52 |
| Total yards | 393 | 418 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 6.7 | 8.0 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.01 | 0.44 (edge) |
| Success rate | 47% | 58% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 71% | 56% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.09 | 0.74 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.19 (edge) | 0.06 |
| Third downs | 3/10 | 5/9 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 9 (edge) | 6 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 21 | 22 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 2 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 (edge) |
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.44 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
21/25, 320 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
22.2 expected points added · +19.3% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
25/35, 282 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-4.4 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | BUF 25 | 10 | 60 | 4:19 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | MIA | MIA 23 | 9 | 72 | 4:11 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 3 | BUF | BUF 20 | 12 | 80 | 5:20 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 4 | MIA | MIA 30 | 9 | 70 | 3:23 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 5 | BUF | BUF 21 | 7 | 41 | 2:45 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | MIA | MIA 22 | 5 | 8 | 2:20 | Punt | |
| 7 | BUF | BUF 27 | 5 | 27 | 2:14 | Punt | |
| 8 | MIA | MIA 6 | 4 | 8 | 1:37 | Punt | |
| 9 | BUF | BUF 41 | 3 | 59 | 0:53 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 10 | MIA | MIA 25 | 4 | 7 | 0:44 | Fumble | |
| 11 | BUF | MIA 31 | 4 | -4 | 0:35 | Field goal +3 | |
| 12 | MIA | MIA 25 | 5 | 6 | 1:32 | Punt | |
| 13 | BUF | BUF 23 | 1 | 0 | 0:07 | End of half | |
| 14 | MIA | MIA 25 | 13 | 75 | 5:30 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 15 | BUF | BUF 25 | 8 | 60 | 4:09 | Field goal +3 | |
| 16 | MIA | MIA 25 | 3 | 0 | 0:18 | Interception | |
| 17 | BUF | MIA 25 | 5 | 25 | 2:03 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 18 | MIA | MIA 25 | 6 | 20 | 2:21 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | BUF | MIA 45 | 3 | 45 | 0:44 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 20 | MIA | MIA 25 | 8 | 63 | 3:03 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | BUF | BUF 17 | 4 | 0 | 1:43 | Punt | |
| 22 | MIA | MIA 20 | 7 | 64 | 4:39 | Fumble | |
| 23 | BUF | BUF 21 | 8 | 25 | 5:30 | End of game |
11 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 25/35 | 282 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Achane | 8 | 101 | 12.6 | 2 | 7.7 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | 1.5 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Raheem Mostert | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 0 | -6.8 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | 0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 5 | 58 | 0 | 15% | 1.8 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 15% | 2.5 |
| Braxton Berrios | 6 | 6 | 43 | 1 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Long Jr. | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jevon Holland | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Da'Shawn Hand | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 21/25 | 320 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 22.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 28.
Total closed 53; the game landed 68 — over by 15.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3.5 |
| Durham Smythe | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 12% | 1.9 |
| Raheem Mostert | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 15% | 0.8 |
| Alec Ingold | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 3% | 1.6 |
| Devon Achane | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 15% | -0.3 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6% | -1.3 |
| Robbie Chosen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -4.8 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jerome Baker | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Bethel | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Xavien Howard | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Sieler | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Chubb | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Wilkins | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 0.9 |
| James Cook | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.1 |
| Damien Harris | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 1 | 1.1 |
| Kyle Allen | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 7 | 120 | 3 | 28% | 13.7 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 3 | 61 | 1 | 12% | 4.4 |
| James Cook | 1 | 1 | 48 | 0 | 4% | 2.8 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 20% | 0.9 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 8% | 1.0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 12% | 0.6 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4% | 0.8 |
| Deonte Harty | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 8% | 1.5 |
| Khalil Shakir | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Milano | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Hyde | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Taylor Rapp | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrel Bernard | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ed Oliver | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cameron Lewis | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Floyd | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
