2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · New Era Field

Miami Dolphins

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -2.5 ✓O 53 ✓Bills closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 28.

Buffalo Bills 48–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 3:12, BUF +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 3:12MIA 14 — BUF 27BUF ball · 2nd & 6BUF 79%

(3:12) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-4-K.Kohou, Illegal Contact, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 3:12BUF +10% win prob(3:12) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-4-K.Kohou, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q1 · 11:10BUF +8% win prob(11:10) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs ran ob at MIA 33 for 17 yards. PENALTY on MIA-4-K.Kohou, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 33.
Q2 · 12:08BUF +8% win prob(12:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 14-S.Diggs. PENALTY on MIA-4-K.Kohou, Defensive Pass Interference, 43 yards, enforced at BUF 37 - No Play.
Q2 · 15:00BUF +6% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 31-R.Mostert to BUF 27 for 22 yards (27-T.White).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:46BUF Touchdown
(10:46) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 0 — BUF 7
Q1 · 6:35MIA Touchdown
(6:35) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 7 — BUF 7
Q1 · 1:15BUF Touchdown
(1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 7 — BUF 14
Q2 · 12:52MIA Touchdown
(12:52) 28-D.Achane left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 14 — BUF 14
Q2 · 10:07BUF Touchdown
(10:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [2-B.Chubb]. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 14 — BUF 21
Q2 · 3:12BUF Touchdown
(3:12) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-4-K.Kohou, Illegal Contact, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 14 — BUF 28
Q2 · 1:44BUF Field goal
(1:44) 2-T.Bass 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: MIA 14 — BUF 31
Q3 · 9:34MIA Touchdown
(9:34) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 0-B.Berrios for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: MIA 20 — BUF 31
Q3 · 5:25BUF Field goal
(5:25) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: MIA 20 — BUF 34
Q3 · 3:04BUF Touchdown
(3:04) (Shotgun) 76-D.Edwards reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 20 — BUF 41
Q4 · 15:00BUF Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 20 — BUF 48

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Bills
Offensive plays	59	52
Total yards	393	418 (edge)
Yards per play	6.7	8.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.01	0.44 (edge)
Success rate	47%	58% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09	0.74 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19 (edge)	0.06
Third downs	3/10	5/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	21	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.44 expected points added per play vs -0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

21/25, 320 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

22.2 expected points added · +19.3% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

25/35, 282 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-4.4 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Devon AchaneRB

8 att, 101 yds, 2 TD

7.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

12 att, 29 yds, 1 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

6/7 for 120 yds, 3 TD

28% of team targets · 13.7 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Gabe DavisWR

3/3 for 61 yds, 1 TD

12% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 25	10	60	4:19	Touchdown +7
2	MIA	MIA 23	9	72	4:11	Touchdown +7
3	BUF	BUF 20	12	80	5:20	Touchdown +7
4	MIA	MIA 30	9	70	3:23	Touchdown +7
5	BUF	BUF 21	7	41	2:45	Touchdown +7
6	MIA	MIA 22	5	8	2:20	Punt
7	BUF	BUF 27	5	27	2:14	Punt
8	MIA	MIA 6	4	8	1:37	Punt
9	BUF	BUF 41	3	59	0:53	Touchdown +7
10	MIA	MIA 25	4	7	0:44	Fumble
11	BUF	MIA 31	4	-4	0:35	Field goal +3
12	MIA	MIA 25	5	6	1:32	Punt
13	BUF	BUF 23	1	0	0:07	End of half
14	MIA	MIA 25	13	75	5:30	Touchdown +6
15	BUF	BUF 25	8	60	4:09	Field goal +3
16	MIA	MIA 25	3	0	0:18	Interception
17	BUF	MIA 25	5	25	2:03	Touchdown +7
18	MIA	MIA 25	6	20	2:21	Turnover on downs
19	BUF	MIA 45	3	45	0:44	Touchdown +7
20	MIA	MIA 25	8	63	3:03	Turnover on downs
21	BUF	BUF 17	4	0	1:43	Punt
22	MIA	MIA 20	7	64	4:39	Fumble
23	BUF	BUF 21	8	25	5:30	End of game

11 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	25/35	282	1	1	4	-4.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devon Achane	8	101	12.6	2	7.7
Tyreek Hill	1	14	14.0	0	1.5
Braxton Berrios	1	11	11.0	0	0.7
Raheem Mostert	7	9	1.3	0	-6.8
Tua Tagovailoa	2	7	3.5	0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	3	5	58	0	15%	1.8
Jaylen Waddle	4	5	46	0	15%	2.5
Braxton Berrios	6	6	43	1	18%	3.5
Durham Smythe	4	4	41	0	12%	1.9
Raheem Mostert	3	5	36	0	15%	0.8
Alec Ingold	1	1	23	0	3%	1.6
Devon Achane	3	5	19	0	15%	-0.3
Cedrick Wilson	1	2	16	0	6%	-1.3
Robbie Chosen	0	1	0	0	3%	-4.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
David Long Jr.	5	3	0.0	0
Jevon Holland	3	2	0.0	0
Da'Shawn Hand	1	3	0.0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	3	1	2.0	0
Jerome Baker	3	0	0.0	0
Justin Bethel	1	2	0.0	1
Xavien Howard	2	1	0.0	1
Zach Sieler	2	1	0.0	0
Bradley Chubb	1	1	0.0	0
Christian Wilkins	1	1	0.0	1

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	21/25	320	4	0	2	22.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Latavius Murray	4	32	8.0	0	0.9
James Cook	12	29	2.4	1	-1.1
Damien Harris	6	29	4.8	0	-0.4
Josh Allen	4	17	4.3	1	1.1
Kyle Allen	3	-3	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	6	7	120	3	28%	13.7
Gabe Davis	3	3	61	1	12%	4.4
James Cook	1	1	48	0	4%	2.8
Dalton Kincaid	4	5	27	0	20%	0.9
Latavius Murray	2	2	24	0	8%	1.0
Trent Sherfield	2	3	18	0	12%	0.6
Dawson Knox	1	1	12	0	4%	0.8
Deonte Harty	2	2	10	0	8%	1.5
Khalil Shakir	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Matt Milano	8	2	0.0	0	0
Micah Hyde	4	1	0.0	1	1
Taylor Rapp	4	1	0.0	0	0
Terrel Bernard	1	3	0.0	0	0
Taron Johnson	3	1	0.0	0	1
Ed Oliver	3	0	1.0	0	0
Dane Jackson	3	0	0.0	0	0
Gregory Rousseau	3	0	2.0	0	1
Cameron Lewis	1	1	0.0	0	0
Leonard Floyd	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -2.5
Closing total: 53
MIA moneyline: +120
BUF moneyline: -142

Bills closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 28.

Total closed 53; the game landed 68 — over by 15.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 70°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: MIA 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Mike McDaniel vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.