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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:30 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 4
It turned at Q3 4:09, 2nd and 17, on Bryce Young — 40.5 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:09 · 2nd and 17
Bryce Young
Vikings
(4:09) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at MIN 39 for -11 yards (22-H.Smith). FUMBLES (22-H.Smith) [22-H.Smith], RECOVERED by MIN-98-D.Wonnum at MIN 49. 98-D.Wonnum for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Minnesota Vikings 21–13. Biggest swing: Q3 4:09, Vikings +40.5% win probability on one snap.
40.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Panthers at 1 chunk play.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 14 on third down, against Vikings at 1 of 8 on third down.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.18 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.16 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 14.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(4:09) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at MIN 39 for -11 yards (22-H.Smith). FUMBLES (22-H.Smith) [22-H.Smith], RECOVERED by MIN-98-D.Wonnum at MIN 49. 98-D.Wonnum for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
D.J. Wonnum's 51-yard touchdown with 4:09 left in the 3rd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
D.J. Wonnum51-yd defence TD51-yard touchdownthe defence scored itLead never changed again+714–136 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Vikingscategory by categoryPanthers
Vikings ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 44 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Panthers’s 68 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 3, Panthers 2.
Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIN's early-down pass rate, 35.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 0.4 points clear of the next team along.
34 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
CAR's play-action rate, 5.1%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 3.6 points clear of the next team along.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
MIN's pass rate over expected turned over: +3.0 pts in week 3 against −6.9 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.7 points.
MIN's blitz rate sent turned over: 84.0% in week 3 against 43.6% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 17.1 points.
CAR's early-down pass rate turned over: 75.9% in week 3 against 52.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Vikings-6.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.1 vs their 2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−1.92× that swing) · 44 snaps
Panthers-9.8 ptsright on their number · −4.3 vs their -5.5 pts, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 89%
Tendencies room →Vikings35.3%off script — ran early · −24.5 vs their 59.8%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−2.16× that swing) · 34 early downs
Panthers52.9%right on their number · −2.0 vs their 55.0%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 50%
Tendencies room →Vikings28.6%right on their number · −1.0 vs their 29.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Panthers5.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −8.4 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 112%
Fourth Down room →Vikings50.0%right on their number · +13.1 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±27.9 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Panthers66.7%inside their normal wobble · +13.8 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±22.1 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 97%
Tendencies room →Vikings43.6%inside their normal wobble · −8.9 vs their 52.5%, and they swing ±17.1 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Panthers28.6%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 30.9%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 31%
Tendencies room →Vikings15.4%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Panthers19.0%inside their normal wobble · +4.9 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
MIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 35.3%, 24.5 points below their season mean of 59.8% and 2.2 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CAR
25/32, 204 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-13.0 expected points added · +5.1% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
12/19, 139 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-10.9 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected
Receiving · MIN
6/9 for 85 yds, 2 TD
50% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Justin Jefferson banked 7.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 26.5 | +7.5 | 98% | 100% | 50% | 65% | 6/9, 85 yd, 2 TD |
| Adam ThielenWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.2 | +0.6 | 90% | 85% | 26% | 42% | 1 car, 6 yd · 7/8, 76 yd |
| Terrace MarshallWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.6 | −1.2 | 63% | 62% | 32% | 16% | 9/10, 56 yd |
| Alexander MattisonRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.8 | −0.5 | 69% | 57% | 6% | 1% | 17 car, 95 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 9.6 | −1.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 12/19, 139 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 0 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Committee Back | 7.3 | −2.9 | 54% | 51% | 6% | 0% | 14 car, 41 yd · 2/2, 12 yd |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 7.2 | −6.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/32, 204 yd · 2 car, 10 yd |
| Cam AkersRB · Receiving Back | 7.1 | +1.8 | 29% | 38% | 11% | 0% | 5 car, 40 yd · 2/2, 11 yd |
| Miles SandersRB · Committee Back | 6.2 | −6.9 | 43% | 41% | 10% | 0% | 13 car, 19 yd · 3/3, 13 yd |
| D.J. CharkWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | −0.3 | 92% | 87% | 10% | 41% | 2/3, 28 yd |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −0.1 | 88% | 95% | 17% | 5% | 2/3, 24 yd |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +1.1 | 18% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 7 yd · 1/1, 12 yd |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −3.1 | 83% | 90% | 11% | 12% | 1/2, 16 yd |
| Hayden HurstTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −3.2 | 51% | 64% | 10% | 6% | 1/3, 7 yd |
| Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.7 | 35% | 31% | 3% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Giovanni RicciTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ty ChandlerRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| C.J. HamRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 46% | 29% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jordan AddisonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.0 | 58% | 71% | 6% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Brandon PowellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 17-K.Osborn INTERCEPTED by 42-S.Franklin at CAR 1. 42-S.Franklin for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 10:42 · Vikings · 3rd & goal at CAR 5 · gained nothing · -11.25 EP · −32.0% win probability
144 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 158 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 144 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
4 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 75 yards from the MIN 20 for a opp touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Vikings0
Panthers6Vikings0Panthers7Vikings0Panthers10Vikings6Panthers10Vikings7Panthers10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Vikings7Panthers13How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Vikings13Panthers13Vikings14Panthers13How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Vikings20Panthers13Vikings21Panthers13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Vikings at Panthers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 12/19 | 139 | 2 | 2 | 2 | −10.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 17 | 95 | 5.6 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Cam Akers | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 | +2.8 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 9 | 85 | 2 | 50% | +6.9 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 17% | +0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Smith | 7 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Hicks | 4 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Wonnum |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 25/32 | 204 | 0 | 0 | 5 | −13.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_04_MIN_CAR
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 34 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 11% | −10.1 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 11% | +0.2 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6% | −1.0 |
| Jordan Addison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −5.1 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Josh Metellus | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ivan Pace | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Davenport | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Bullard | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danielle Hunter | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |
| 41 |
| 2.9 |
| 0 |
| +1.4 |
| Miles Sanders | 13 | 19 | 1.5 | 0 | −6.9 |
| Bryce Young | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 7 | 8 | 76 | 0 | 26% | +4.1 |
| Terrace Marshall | 9 | 10 | 56 | 0 | 32% | +1.2 |
| D.J. Chark | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 10% | +0.9 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 10% | +0.9 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6% | −0.0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10% | −0.0 |
| Ian Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vonn Bell | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frankie Luvu | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Chinn | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Franklin | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| C.J. Henderson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shy Tuttle | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jammie Robinson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Giovanni Ricci | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeShawn Williams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
