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2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium

Minnesota VikingsWinner

21

Carolina Panthers

13

MIN -4.5 ✓U 46.5 ✓

Minnesota Vikings 21–13. Biggest swing: Q3 4:09, MIN +41% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CAR ↑MIN ↓
Q3 · 4:09MIN 13 — CAR 13CAR ball · 2nd & 17CAR 74%

(4:09) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at MIN 39 for -11 yards (22-H.Smith). FUMBLES (22-H.Smith) [22-H.Smith], RECOVERED by MIN-98-D.Wonnum at MIN 49. 98-D.Wonnum for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 4:09MIN +41% win prob(4:09) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at MIN 39 for -11 yards (22-H.Smith). FUMBLES (22-H.Smith) [22-H.Smith], RECOVERED by MIN-98-D.Wonnum at MIN 49. 98-D.Wonnum for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 10:42MIN +29% win prob(10:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 17-K.Osborn INTERCEPTED by 42-S.Franklin at CAR 1. 42-S.Franklin for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 0:46MIN +24% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 3-J.Addison INTERCEPTED by 54-K.Grugier-Hill [97-Y.Gross-Matos] at CAR 13. 54-K.Grugier-Hill to CAR 44 for 31 yards (17-K.Osborn).
  4. Q2 · 5:29MIN +9% win prob(5:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 27 for -8 yards (21-J.Chinn).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:42CAR Touchdown

    (10:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 17-K.Osborn INTERCEPTED by 42-S.Franklin at CAR 1. 42-S.Franklin for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 0 — CAR 7
  2. Q2 · 14:59CAR Field goal

    (14:59) 4-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: MIN 0 — CAR 10
  3. Q2 · 9:49MIN Touchdown

    (9:49) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 7 — CAR 10
  4. Q2 · 0:02CAR Field goal

    (:02) 4-E.Pineiro 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: MIN 7 — CAR 13
  5. Q3 · 4:09MIN Touchdown

    (4:09) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at MIN 39 for -11 yards (22-H.Smith). FUMBLES (22-H.Smith) [22-H.Smith], RECOVERED by MIN-98-D.Wonnum at MIN 49. 98-D.Wonnum for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 14 — CAR 13
  6. Q3 · 0:07MIN Touchdown

    (:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-99-S.Tuttle, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 21 — CAR 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricVikingsPanthers
Offensive plays4468
Total yards265 (edge)232
Yards per play6.0 (edge)3.4
Expected points added / play-0.15 (edge)-0.26
Success rate52% (edge)38%
Dropback rate48%57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.52-0.33 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.18 (edge)-0.16
Third downs1/85/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)1
First downs gained on snaps1318 (edge)
Sacks taken2 (edge)5
Turnovers21 (edge)

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

25/32, 204 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-13.0 expected points added · +5.1% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

12/19, 139 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-10.9 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Alexander MattisonRB

17 att, 95 yds, 0 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

14 att, 41 yds, 0 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

6/9 for 85 yds, 2 TD

50% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Adam ThielenWR

7/8 for 76 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MINMIN 258404:33Defensive touchdown
2MINMIN 23572:05Punt
3CARCAR 3115638:26Field goal +3
4MINMIN 3612645:13Touchdown +7
5CARCAR 308162:59Punt
6MINMIN 175102:03Punt
7CARCAR 314142:50Punt
8MINMIN 305541:17Interception
9CARCAR 444180:34Field goal +3
10CARCAR 25582:25Punt
11MINMIN 45192:10Punt
12CARCAR 1310386:27Defensive touchdown
13CARCAR 255-92:14Punt
14MINMIN 445561:44Touchdown +7
15CARCAR 2313336:11Punt
16MINMIN 20481:29Punt
17CARCAR 2615516:23Turnover on downs
18MINMIN 23470:57Turnover on downs

4 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 64 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kirk Cousins12/19139222-10.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Alexander Mattison17955.602.0
Cam Akers5408.002.8
Kirk Cousins100.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Justin Jefferson6985250%6.9
T.J. Hockenson2324017%0.6
K.J. Osborn1216011%-10.1
Cam Akers2211011%0.2
Alexander Mattison11306%-1.0
Jordan Addison01006%-5.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Harrison Smith763.000
Jordan Hicks480.000
Camryn Bynum730.000
D.J. Wonnum421.001
Josh Metellus150.001
Ivan Pace320.000
Marcus Davenport131.000
Harrison Phillips220.000
Jonathan Bullard210.000
Danielle Hunter210.000

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bryce Young25/32204005-13.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chuba Hubbard14412.901.4
Miles Sanders13191.50-6.9
Bryce Young2105.000.3
Laviska Shenault Jr.177.000.6
Adam Thielen166.000.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Adam Thielen7876026%4.1
Terrace Marshall91056032%1.2
D.J. Chark2328010%0.9
Miles Sanders3313010%0.9
Chuba Hubbard221206%-0.0
Laviska Shenault Jr.111203%0.8
Hayden Hurst137010%-0.0
Ian Thomas01003%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Vonn Bell430.000
Frankie Luvu140.000
Jeremy Chinn501.000
Sam Franklin220.011
C.J. Henderson400.000
Yetur Gross-Matos401.000
Shy Tuttle200.000
Jammie Robinson200.000
Giovanni Ricci200.000
DeShawn Williams110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIN -4.5
Closing total
46.5
MIN moneyline
-225
CAR moneyline
+185

Vikings closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 34 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
78°F, wind 7 mph
Referee
Tra Blake
Rest
MIN 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches
Kevin O'Connell vs Frank Reich