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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · AT&T Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 4
It turned at Q1 8:49, 3rd and 6, on Demario Douglas — 11.0 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Dallas Cowboys 38–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:49, Patriots +11.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:49 · 3rd and 6
Demario Douglas
Patriots
(8:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 81-D.Douglas ran ob at DAL 15 for 42 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).
11.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.48 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — no giveaways, against Patriots at 3 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.44 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(8:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 81-D.Douglas ran ob at DAL 15 for 42 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
CeeDee Lamb's 20-yard touchdown catch with 1:34 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
CeeDee Lamb20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+73–10Leighton Vander Esch11-yd defense TD11-yard touchdownthe defense scored it · two-point good+83–188 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryCowboys
Cowboys ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 55 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 66 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 1, Cowboys 5.
Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.48.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 3 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 15 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.0 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
DAL's play-action rate turned over: 15.6% in week 3 against 37.5% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
DAL's pass rate over expected turned over: −8.2 pts in week 3 against +7.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points. · +0.7σ from their own normal
DAL's blitz rate sent turned over: 58.3% in week 3 against 20.6% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points. · −0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-8.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 55 snaps
Cowboys7.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 3.1 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 82%
Tendencies room →Patriots52.5%right on their number · −3.2 vs their 55.7%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 40 early downs
Cowboys54.0%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 56.9%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 48%
Tendencies room →Patriots11.8%inside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Cowboys37.5%leaned — faked the run · +12.2 vs their 25.3%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+1.39× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32% to 119%
Fourth Down room →Patriots66.7%leaned — went for it · +35.4 vs their 31.2%, and they swing ±24.0 week to week (+1.48× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Cowboys33.3%right on their number · −13.3 vs their 46.7%, and they swing ±28.3 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 59%
Tendencies room →Patriots37.5%right on their number · +4.5 vs their 33.0%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Cowboys20.6%inside their normal wobble · −8.6 vs their 29.1%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 32%
Tendencies room →Patriots17.5%inside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Cowboys5.9%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.9 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.59× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
DAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.9%, 9.9 points below their season mean of 15.8% and 1.6 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · DAL
28/34, 261 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
3.9 expected points added · +12.9% completion over expected
Passing · NE
12/21, 150 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-12.8 expected points added · -16.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kavontae Turpin banked 3.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee LambWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.8 | +0.6 | 63% | 75% | 17% | 24% | 1 car, 12 yd · 4/6, 36 yd, 1 TD |
| Jake FergusonTE · Featured Receiver | 14.7 | +1.2 | 56% | 73% | 19% | 23% | 7/7, 77 yd |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 14.3 | −5.2 | 90% | — | 0% | — | 28/34, 261 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Michael GallupWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.0 | +2.2 | 53% | 63% | 17% | 12% | 5/6, 60 yd |
| Jalen TolbertWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.3 | +2.1 | 34% | 23% | 11% | 18% | 4/4, 53 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.1 | +1.4 | 80% | 79% | 17% | 18% | 4/5, 51 yd |
| Tony PollardRB · Committee Back | 9.0 | −7.8 | 53% | 60% | 8% | 2% | 11 car, 47 yd · 3/3, 13 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | +0.2 | 70% | 75% | 11% | 8% | 4/4, 27 yd |
| Demario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.5 | +2.4 | 33% | 41% | 10% | 11% | 2/3, 45 yd |
| Hunter LuepkeRB | 6.4 | +2.0 | 20% | 13% | 0% | — | 2 car, 4 yd, 1 TD |
| Kavontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | +3.2 | 30% | 23% | 3% | 1% | 1 car, 46 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Bell Cow Back | 6.0 | −5.2 | 64% | 62% | 10% | 3% | 14 car, 30 yd · 2/3, 10 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | +0.9 | 53% | 59% | 10% | 11% | 2/3, 36 yd |
| DeVante ParkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | −0.7 | 82% | 88% | 14% | 19% | 2/4, 33 yd |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB · Receiving Back | 4.2 | −2.7 | 40% | 44% | 10% | 0% | 6 car, 16 yd · 2/3, 6 yd |
| Rico DowdleRB | 2.7 | −1.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −5.0 | 47% | 38% | 17% | 21% | 1/5, 14 yd |
| Bailey ZappeQB | 2.3 | −0.4 | 27% | — | 0% | — | 4/9, 57 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −5.4 | 60% | 62% | 10% | 19% | 1/3, 12 yd |
| Deuce VaughnRB | 2.1 | −5.8 | 31% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 8 car, 9 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 0.7 | −8.8 | 73% | — | 0% | — | 12/21, 150 yd, 2 INT · 3 car, 7 yd |
| Cooper RushQB | 0.6 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Luke SchoonmakerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −7.9 | 56% | 48% | 8% | 9% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Sean McKeonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 26% | 10% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Matt SlaterWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 81-D.Douglas ran ob at DAL 15 for 42 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).
Q1 8:49 · Patriots · 3rd & 6 at NE 43 · gained 42 · +4.41 EP · +13.9% win probability
158 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 82 yards from the NE 5 for a opp touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots0
Cowboys3How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Patriots3Cowboys3Patriots3Cowboys9Patriots3Cowboys10How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Patriots3Cowboys16Patriots3Cowboys18Patriots3Cowboys21Patriots3Cowboys27Patriots3Cowboys28Patriots3Cowboys31Patriots3Cowboys37Patriots3Cowboys38Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Cowboys, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 12/21 | 150 | 0 | 2 | 1 | −12.8 |
| Bailey Zappe | 4/9 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −3.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 14 | 30 | 2.1 | 0 | −4.4 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 17% | +4.4 |
| Demario Douglas | 2 | 3 | 45 | 0 | 10% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Dugger | 10 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Bryant | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabrill Peppers |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 28/34 | 261 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +3.9 |
| Cooper Rush | 2/2 | 20 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_04_NE_DAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 35.
Total closed 43; the game landed 41 — under by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
| Mac Jones | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | −4.5 |
| +2.6 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 10% | −6.0 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 14% | +0.3 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 17% | −5.8 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10% | −1.4 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 10% | −0.9 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 10% | −0.6 |
| 5 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Shaun Wade | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Mills | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Deatrich Wise | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Uche | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marte Mapu | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +1.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Kavontae Turpin | 1 | 46 | 46.0 | 0 | +3.5 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 8 | 9 | 1.1 | 0 | −4.8 |
| Hunter Luepke | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 | +2.1 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Cooper Rush | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Ferguson | 7 | 7 | 77 | 0 | 19% | +5.7 |
| Michael Gallup | 5 | 6 | 60 | 0 | 17% | +2.9 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 4 | 4 | 53 | 0 | 11% | +4.8 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 4 | 6 | 36 | 1 | 17% | +0.4 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 11% | +0.5 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 8% | +0.7 |
| Rico Dowdle | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| Kavontae Turpin | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +1.6 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leighton Vander Esch | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Wilson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damone Clark | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jourdan Lewis | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Bland | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 |
| Micah Parsons | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Markquese Bell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayron Kearse | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Stephon Gilmore | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Hooker | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
