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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:43 AM ET · 16 to play
New England Patriots 3 at Dallas Cowboys 38. Final.
Cowboys -6.5 ✓U 43 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 4
Dallas Cowboys 38, Patriots 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 8:49, 3rd and 6, on Demario Douglas — 11.0 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:49 · 3rd and 6
Demario Douglas
Patriots
(8:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 81-D.Douglas ran ob at DAL 15 for 42 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).
Dome
Cowboys closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 35.
Dallas Cowboys 38–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:49, Patriots +11.0% win probability on one snap.
11.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
CeeDee LambCowboysQ1 1:34(1:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6.6pts
Mac JonesCowboysQ2 11:17(11:17) 10-M.Jones sacked at NE 6 for -2 yards (56-D.Fowler). FUMBLES (56-D.Fowler) [56-D.Fowler], RECOVERED by DAL-55-L.Vander Esch at NE 11. 55-L.Vander Esch for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.5pts
What separated them
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.48 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — no giveaways, against Patriots at 3 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.44 expected points per carry.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Patriots159 of 168 plays carry both curves
(8:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 81-D.Douglas ran ob at DAL 15 for 42 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).
Swing −11.0 for CowboysExpected points −4.41 for CowboysThe model had Patriots 12 points higher than the market did.play 18
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:49DAL +11% win prob(8:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 81-D.Douglas ran ob at DAL 15 for 42 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).
2nd · 11:17NE +9% win prob(11:17) 10-M.Jones sacked at NE 6 for -2 yards (56-D.Fowler). FUMBLES (56-D.Fowler) [56-D.Fowler], RECOVERED by DAL-55-L.Vander Esch at NE 11. 55-L.Vander Esch for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:34DAL +7% win prob(1:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:37NE +6% win prob(11:37) 20-T.Pollard right end to NE 5 for -4 yards (23-K.Dugger).
1st · 14:26DAL +5% win prob(14:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 13-M.Gallup pushed ob at NE 40 for 29 yards (5-J.Peppers).
1st · 12:41DAL +4% win prob(12:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson to NE 4 for 14 yards (23-K.Dugger, 27-M.Bryant).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
CeeDee Lamb's 20-yard touchdown catch with 1:34 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:54Brandon Aubrey·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+30–3
1st6:44Chad Ryland·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Cardona+33–3
1st1:34CeeDee Lamb·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+73–10
Cowboys ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.48Patriots: −0.48 expected points added per play
+0.11Cowboys: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.50Patriots: −0.50 expected points added per play
+0.16Cowboys: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.44Patriots: −0.44 expected points added per play
+0.04Cowboys: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 55 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 66 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 1, Cowboys 5.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.48.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 3 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 15 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.0 points.
DAL's play-action rate turned over: 15.6% in week 3 against 37.5% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
DAL's pass rate over expected turned over: −8.2 pts in week 3 against +7.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
DAL's blitz rate sent turned over: 58.3% in week 3 against 20.6% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Cowboys5.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.9 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.59× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteDAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.9%, 9.9 points below their season mean of 15.8% and 1.6 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 5 inactive
71Michael OnwenuG · Every snap100%55 snaps
68Atonio MafiG · Every snap100%55 snaps
77Trenton BrownT · Every snap100%55 snaps
60David AndrewsC · Every snap100%55 snaps
59Vederian LoweT · Every snap100%55 snaps
1DeVante ParkerWR · Full-time82%45 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Full-time80%44 snaps
10Mac JonesQB · Heavy rotation73%40 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Heavy rotation64%35 snaps
88Mike GesickiTE · Heavy rotation60%33 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Heavy rotation53%29 snaps
7JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational47%26 snaps
86Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational40%22 snaps
15Ezekiel ElliottRB · Rotational40%22 snaps
81Demario DouglasWR · Rotational33%18 snaps
4Bailey ZappeQB · Rotational27%15 snaps
14Ty MontgomeryWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Jonathan JonesCBCole StrangeGWill GrierQBTyrone WheatleyTKayshon BoutteWR
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive
73Tyler SmithT · Every snap100%70 snaps
78Terence SteeleT · Every snap100%70 snaps
71Chuma EdogaT · Full-time90%63 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Full-time90%63 snaps
63Tyler BiadaszC · Full-time90%63 snaps
70Zack MartinG · Heavy rotation77%54 snaps
3Brandin CooksWR · Heavy rotation70%49 snaps
88CeeDee LambWR · Heavy rotation63%44 snaps
86Luke SchoonmakerTE · Heavy rotation56%39 snaps
87Jake FergusonTE · Heavy rotation56%39 snaps
13Michael GallupWR · Heavy rotation53%37 snaps
20Tony PollardRB · Heavy rotation53%37 snaps
18Jalen TolbertWR · Rotational34%24 snaps
42Deuce VaughnRB · Rotational31%22 snaps
9Kavontae TurpinWR · Rotational30%21 snaps
84Sean McKeonTE · Rotational26%18 snaps
66T.J. BassG · Situational23%16 snaps
40Hunter LuepkeRB · Situational20%14 snaps
76Asim RichardsG · Situational10%7 snaps
67Brock HoffmanC · Situational10%7 snaps
10Cooper RushQB · Situational10%7 snaps
23Rico DowdleRB · Situational9%6 snaps
Inactive · 7
Eric ScottCBViliami FehokoDEIsrael MukuamuFSTrey LanceQBTyron SmithTPeyton HendershotTEJalen BrooksWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Jones pass+14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 81-D.Douglas ran ob at DAL 15 for 42 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).
Q1 8:49 · Patriots · 3rd & 6 at NE 43 · gained 42 · +4.41 EP · +13.9% win probability
158 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 82 yards from the NE 5 for a opp touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.18
Success rate
36%
Yards
632
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.0065%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20-0.2470%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.1850%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.9144%
Patriots1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR13-0.6446%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.0540%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cowboys0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Patriots0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Patriots0Cowboys3
Field goal12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Patriots 1
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.8 seconds
Patriots3Cowboys3
Field goal10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Cowboys 6
Patriots3Cowboys9
Patriots3Cowboys10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Patriots 20
The period ended5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 38
2nd quarter53 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from midfield to the Cowboys 41
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 41 to the Cowboys 43
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Patriots3Cowboys16
Touchdown3 plays
Patriots3Cowboys18
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 29
Patriots3Cowboys21
Field goal11 plays, from the Cowboys 22 to the Patriots 5
Patriots3Cowboys27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Cowboys 48
Patriots3Cowboys28
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 27
The period ended9 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Patriots 48
3rd quarter40 plays
The period ended9 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Cowboys 40
Patriots3Cowboys31
Field goal10 plays, from the Cowboys 48 to the Patriots 6
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 29
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Cowboys 47 to the Patriots 22
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Patriots 43
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 11 to the Cowboys 28
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Patriots 21
Patriots3Cowboys37
Patriots3Cowboys38
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 37 to the Patriots 3
No good8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Cowboys 26
The period ended9 plays, from the Cowboys 42 to the Patriots 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
