2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · AT&T Stadium

New England Patriots

Dallas CowboysWinner

DAL -6.5 ✓U 43 ✓DomeCowboys closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 35.

Dallas Cowboys 38–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:49, DAL +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 8:49NE 0 — DAL 3NE ball · 3rd & 6DAL 73%

(8:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 81-D.Douglas ran ob at DAL 15 for 42 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 8:49DAL +11% win prob(8:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 81-D.Douglas ran ob at DAL 15 for 42 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).
Q2 · 11:17NE +9% win prob(11:17) 10-M.Jones sacked at NE 6 for -2 yards (56-D.Fowler). FUMBLES (56-D.Fowler) [56-D.Fowler], RECOVERED by DAL-55-L.Vander Esch at NE 11. 55-L.Vander Esch for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 1:34DAL +7% win prob(1:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 11:37NE +6% win prob(11:37) 20-T.Pollard right end to NE 5 for -4 yards (23-K.Dugger).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:54DAL Field goal
(10:54) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: NE 0 — DAL 3
Q1 · 6:44NE Field goal
(6:44) 37-C.Ryland 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 3 — DAL 3
Q1 · 1:34DAL Touchdown
(1:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 3 — DAL 10
Q2 · 11:17DAL Touchdown
(11:17) 10-M.Jones sacked at NE 6 for -2 yards (56-D.Fowler). FUMBLES (56-D.Fowler) [56-D.Fowler], RECOVERED by DAL-55-L.Vander Esch at NE 11. 55-L.Vander Esch for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: NE 3 — DAL 16
Q2 · 11:09DAL Two-point
(Kick formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-B.Anger pass to 99-C.Golston is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Score after this play: NE 3 — DAL 18
Q2 · 4:06DAL Field goal
(4:06) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: NE 3 — DAL 21
Q2 · 1:07DAL Touchdown
(1:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bland at DAL 46. 26-D.Bland for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 3 — DAL 28
Q3 · 7:45DAL Field goal
(7:45) 17-B.Aubrey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: NE 3 — DAL 31
Q4 · 6:41DAL Touchdown
(6:41) (Shotgun) 40-H.Luepke right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 3 — DAL 38

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Cowboys
Offensive plays	55	66
Total yards	253	382 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.48	0.11 (edge)
Success rate	31%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	62%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.50	0.16 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.44	0.04 (edge)
Third downs	4/13	8/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	10	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.48.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

28/34, 261 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.9 expected points added · +12.9% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

12/21, 150 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-12.8 expected points added · -16.7% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Tony PollardRB

11 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

14 att, 30 yds, 0 TD

-4.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

Jake FergusonTE

7/7 for 77 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

Michael GallupWR

5/6 for 60 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 25	11	70	4:08	Field goal +3
2	NE	NE 25	9	69	4:11	Field goal +3
3	DAL	DAL 25	12	75	5:11	Touchdown +7
4	NE	NE 25	8	39	2:47	Turnover on downs
5	DAL	DAL 41	4	-8	1:49	Punt
6	NE	NE 10	2	3	0:45	Defensive touchdown
7	NE	NE 25	5	4	1:33	Punt
8	DAL	DAL 22	11	73	5:33	Field goal +3
9	NE	NE 25	9	37	3:09	Defensive touchdown
10	NE	NE 25	5	2	0:38	Punt
11	DAL	DAL 29	3	23	0:16	End of half
12	NE	NE 25	8	35	3:17	Interception
13	DAL	DAL 48	10	37	4:01	Field goal +3
14	NE	NE 25	5	4	1:34	Punt
15	DAL	DAL 47	6	7	2:27	Turnover on downs
16	NE	NE 31	7	12	2:51	Punt
17	DAL	DAL 14	7	21	3:20	Punt
18	NE	NE 15	4	6	1:31	Punt
19	DAL	DAL 37	8	60	4:21	Touchdown +7
20	NE	NE 25	8	42	2:35	Missed field goal
21	DAL	DAL 42	6	22	4:03	End of game

6 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 75 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	12/21	150	0	2	1	-12.8
Bailey Zappe	4/9	57	0	0	1	-3.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	14	30	2.1	-4.4
Ezekiel Elliott	6	16	2.7	-1.5
Mac Jones	3	7	2.3	-4.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Hunter Henry	4	5	51	17%	4.4
Demario Douglas	2	3	45	10%	2.6
Kendrick Bourne	2	3	36	10%	-6.0
DeVante Parker	2	4	33	14%	0.3
JuJu Smith-Schuster	1	5	14	17%	-5.8
Mike Gesicki	1	3	12	10%	-1.4
Rhamondre Stevenson	2	3	10	10%	-0.9
Ezekiel Elliott	2	3	6	10%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kyle Dugger	10	3	0.0	0
Myles Bryant	6	4	0.0	0
Jabrill Peppers	5	3	0.0	0
Shaun Wade	5	0	0.0	0
Jalen Mills	2	3	0.0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	2	3	0.0	1
Jahlani Tavai	3	2	1.0	1
Deatrich Wise	2	2	1.0	0
Joshua Uche	2	1	1.0	0
Marte Mapu	1	1	0.0	0

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	28/34	261	1	0	3	3.9
Cooper Rush	2/2	20	0	0	0	1.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tony Pollard	11	47	4.3	0	-0.4
Kavontae Turpin	1	46	46.0	0	3.5
CeeDee Lamb	1	12	12.0	0	0.7
Rico Dowdle	3	9	3.0	0	-0.2
Deuce Vaughn	8	9	1.1	0	-4.8
Hunter Luepke	2	4	2.0	1	2.1
Dak Prescott	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0
Cooper Rush	3	-2	-0.7	0	-2.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jake Ferguson	7	7	77	0	19%	5.7
Michael Gallup	5	6	60	0	17%	2.9
Jalen Tolbert	4	4	53	0	11%	4.8
CeeDee Lamb	4	6	36	1	17%	0.4
Brandin Cooks	4	4	27	0	11%	0.5
Tony Pollard	3	3	13	0	8%	0.7
Rico Dowdle	1	1	8	0	3%	0.4
Kavontae Turpin	1	1	5	0	3%	1.6
Deuce Vaughn	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.7
Luke Schoonmaker	0	3	0	0	8%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Leighton Vander Esch	4	3	0	0
Donovan Wilson	2	3	0	0
Damone Clark	2	3	0	0
Jourdan Lewis	4	1	0	0
Daron Bland	3	1	2	3
Micah Parsons	1	1	0	0
Markquese Bell	1	1	0	0
Jayron Kearse	2	0	0	2
Stephon Gilmore	2	0	0	0
Malik Hooker	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -6.5
Closing total: 43
NE moneyline: +230
DAL moneyline: -285

Cowboys closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 35.

Total closed 43; the game landed 41 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: NE 7 days · DAL 7 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Mike McCarthy