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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:43 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · NRG Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 4
It turned at Q1 5:01, 2nd and 18, on Steven Nelson — 11.5 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:01 · 2nd and 18
Steven Nelson
Texans
(5:01) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle intended for 19-C.Austin INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Nelson at HOU 22. 21-S.Nelson to PIT 45 for 33 yards (11-A.Robinson). Penalty on PIT-76-C.Okorafor, Offensive Holding, declined. Penalty on HOU-42-C.Littleton, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on PIT-14-G.Pickens, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.
Houston Texans 30–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:01, Texans +11.5% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.3 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
11.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.46 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.40 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Steelers at 4 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Texans won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.28 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Texans won this one — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Steelers at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
(5:01) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle intended for 19-C.Austin INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Nelson at HOU 22. 21-S.Nelson to PIT 45 for 33 yards (11-A.Robinson). Penalty on PIT-76-C.Okorafor, Offensive Holding, declined.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Nico Collins's 2-yard touchdown catch with 8:58 left in the 1st put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryTexans
Texans ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 56 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Texans’s 67 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 2, Texans 5.
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's play-action rate turned over: 26.7% in week 3 against 12.5% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers-13.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their -6.1 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 56 snaps
Texans-6.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their -2.6 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 84%
Tendencies room →Steelers48.8%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 48.1%, and they swing ±14.1 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 41 early downs
Texans38.9%leaned — ran early · −15.4 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 54 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 46%
Tendencies room →Steelers12.5%inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Texans35.5%leaned — faked the run · +12.1 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.39× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -39% to 101%
Fourth Down room →Steelers16.7%right on their number · −11.5 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±26.3 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Texans—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 58%
Tendencies room →Steelers38.7%inside their normal wobble · +10.1 vs their 28.6%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Texans12.5%inside their normal wobble · −6.7 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 39%
Tendencies room →Steelers19.4%inside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.69× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Texans18.8%right on their number · +1.4 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
HOU's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 35.5%, 12.1 points above their season mean of 23.3% and 1.4 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
16/30, 306 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
9.8 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
15/23, 114 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-13.6 expected points added · +2.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Nico Collins banked 19.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico CollinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 35.8 | +19.4 | 76% | 70% | 33% | 36% | 7/9, 168 yd, 2 TD |
| C.J. StroudQB · Starter QB | 21.8 | +4.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/30, 306 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, 16 yd |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Rotational Receiver | 13.2 | +7.0 | 49% | 58% | 11% | 10% | 3/3, 42 yd, 1 TD |
| Dameon PierceRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.8 | −5.2 | 59% | 42% | 7% | 0% | 24 car, 81 yd · 1/2, 27 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Committee Back | 11.5 | 0.0 | 49% | 50% | 22% | 0% | 8 car, 29 yd · 6/6, 26 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 11.3 | +1.3 | 49% | 47% | 7% | 16% | 14 car, 71 yd · 1/2, 32 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB | 8.8 | +1.8 | 35% | 42% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 6 yd, 1 TD · 7 car, 25 yd · 1/1, 11 yd |
| Calvin AustinWR · Featured Receiver | 5.9 | −3.0 | 90% | 84% | 19% | 44% | 1 car, 5 yd · 3/5, 24 yd |
| Robert WoodsWR · Featured Receiver | 5.6 | −3.6 | 72% | 76% | 22% | 20% | 3/6, 26 yd |
| George PickensWR · Alpha Receiver | 5.5 | −6.3 | 98% | 94% | 26% | 36% | 3/7, 25 yd |
| Tank DellWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −3.4 | 70% | 76% | 11% | 12% | 2 car, 13 yd · 1/3, 16 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | −1.3 | 51% | 59% | 15% | 3% | 3/4, 7 yd |
| Kenny PickettQB · Starter QB | 3.5 | −5.6 | 83% | — | 0% | — | 15/23, 114 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 9 yd |
| John MetchieWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −1.5 | 23% | 18% | 7% | 12% | 1/2, 22 yd |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.8 | 42% | 34% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Allen RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −1.7 | 85% | 88% | 7% | 6% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Mitchell TrubiskyQB | 0.7 | −0.7 | 17% | — | 0% | — | 3/5, 18 yd |
| Mike BooneRB | 0.4 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Andrew BeckRB | 0.0 | −1.2 | 48% | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Brevin JordanTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 20% | 21% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:01) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle intended for 19-C.Austin INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Nelson at HOU 22. 21-S.Nelson to PIT 45 for 33 yards (11-A.Robinson). Penalty on PIT-76-C.Okorafor, Offensive Holding, declined. Penalty on HOU-42-C.Littleton, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on PIT-14-G.Pickens, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.
Q1 5:01 · Steelers · 2nd & 18 at PIT 32 · gained nothing · -3.96 EP · −7.2% win probability
158 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 86 yards from the HOU 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Steelers0
Texans6Steelers0Texans7Steelers0Texans10Steelers0Texans13Steelers0Texans16Steelers3Texans16Steelers6Texans16Steelers6Texans22Steelers6Texans23Steelers6Texans29Steelers6Texans30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Texans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 15/23 | 114 | 0 | 1 | 3 | −13.6 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3/5 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 14 | 71 | 5.1 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Jaylen Warren | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 | −3.1 |
| Kenny Pickett |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 7% | +2.2 |
| Jaylen Warren | 6 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 22% | −2.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elandon Roberts | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Holcomb | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Peterson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 16/30 | 306 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +9.8 |
| Devin Singletary | 1/1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1.8 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_04_PIT_HOU
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Steelers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 36 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 15.3 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 2 |
| 9 |
| 4.5 |
| 0 |
| +2.2 |
| Calvin Austin | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| George Pickens | 3 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 26% | −3.1 |
| Calvin Austin | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 19% | −1.7 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +1.2 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7% | −1.3 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 15% | −2.7 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Levi Wallace | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Keeanu Benton | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwon Alexander | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keanu Neal | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damontae Kazee | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 24 | 81 | 3.4 | 0 | −4.2 |
| Devin Singletary | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 | −1.0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Tank Dell | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 7 | 9 | 168 | 2 | 33% | +12.3 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 3 | 42 | 1 | 11% | +4.8 |
| Dameon Pierce | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 7% | +1.3 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 22% | −1.6 |
| John Metchie | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 7% | +1.4 |
| Tank Dell | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 11% | −0.1 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Andrew Beck | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −4.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Harris | 5 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry To'oTo'o | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Greenard | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grayland Arnold | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmie Ward | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerry Hughes | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Neville Hewitt | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sheldon Rankins | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Cashman | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
