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2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · NRG Stadium

Pittsburgh Steelers

6

Houston TexansWinner

30

PIT -3 upsetU 41.5 ✓

Houston Texans 30–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:01, PIT +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3HOU ↑PIT ↓
Q1 · 5:01PIT 0 — HOU 7PIT ball · 2nd & 18HOU 53%

(5:01) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle intended for 19-C.Austin INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Nelson at HOU 22. 21-S.Nelson to PIT 45 for 33 yards (11-A.Robinson). Penalty on PIT-76-C.Okorafor, Offensive Holding, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 5:01PIT +11% win prob(5:01) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle intended for 19-C.Austin INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Nelson at HOU 22. 21-S.Nelson to PIT 45 for 33 yards (11-A.Robinson). Penalty on PIT-76-C.Okorafor, Offensive Holding, declined. Penalty on HOU-42-C.Littleton, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on PIT-14-G.Pickens, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.
  2. Q3 · 7:17HOU +8% win prob(7:17) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 22-N.Harris to HOU 8 for 32 yards (48-C.Harris). PIT-88-P.Freiermuth was injured during the play. He is Out.
  3. Q1 · 12:23HOU +7% win prob(12:23) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 31-D.Pierce to PIT 12 for 27 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
  4. Q1 · 9:25HOU +7% win prob(9:25) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 9-B.Jordan. PENALTY on PIT-39-M.Fitzpatrick, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at PIT 10 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:58HOU Touchdown

    (8:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 0 — HOU 7
  2. Q1 · 1:23HOU Field goal

    (1:23) 15-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

    Score after this play: PIT 0 — HOU 10
  3. Q2 · 12:13HOU Field goal

    (12:13) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

    Score after this play: PIT 0 — HOU 13
  4. Q2 · 0:04HOU Field goal

    (:04) 15-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

    Score after this play: PIT 0 — HOU 16
  5. Q3 · 9:35PIT Field goal

    (9:35) 9-C.Boswell 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-B.Wing.

    Score after this play: PIT 3 — HOU 16
  6. Q3 · 5:50PIT Field goal

    (5:50) 9-C.Boswell 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-B.Wing.

    Score after this play: PIT 6 — HOU 16
  7. Q4 · 10:54HOU Touchdown

    (10:54) 26-D.Singletary pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-E.Roberts]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 6 — HOU 23
  8. Q4 · 3:46HOU Touchdown

    (3:46) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 12-N.Collins for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 6 — HOU 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSteelersTexans
Offensive plays5667
Total yards225451 (edge)
Yards per play4.06.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.280.14 (edge)
Success rate34%45% (edge)
Dropback rate57%46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.400.46 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.12 (edge)-0.14
Third downs6/146/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)410 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1123 (edge)
Sacks taken30 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.28.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

16/30, 306 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.8 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Kenny PickettQB

15/23, 114 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-13.6 expected points added · +2.0% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Dameon PierceRB

24 att, 81 yds, 0 TD

-4.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

14 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

7/9 for 168 yds, 2 TD

33% of team targets · 12.3 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Dalton SchultzTE

3/3 for 42 yds, 1 TD

11% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1HOUHOU 3114706:05Touchdown +7
2PITPIT 199134:09Interception
3HOUPIT 459273:26Field goal +3
4PITPIT 25521:28Punt
5HOUHOU 327482:43Field goal +3
6PITPIT 21521:32Punt
7HOUHOU 336393:32Turnover on downs
8PITPIT 286212:39Punt
9HOUHOU 206302:29Punt
10PITPIT 156151:16Punt
11HOUHOU 225570:41Field goal +3
12PITPIT 2511585:29Field goal +3
13HOUHOU 25540:51Punt
14PITHOU 467412:53Field goal +3
15HOUHOU 256171:04Punt
16PITPIT 247343:33Turnover on downs
17HOUHOU 4211685:20Touchdown +7
18PITPIT 28580:47Punt
19HOUHOU 1412916:24Touchdown +7
20PITPIT 258313:39End of game

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 91 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kenny Pickett15/23114013-13.6
Mitchell Trubisky3/518000-1.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Najee Harris14715.10-0.6
Jaylen Warren8293.60-3.1
Kenny Pickett294.502.2
Calvin Austin155.000.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Najee Harris123207%2.2
Jaylen Warren6626022%-2.0
George Pickens3725026%-3.1
Calvin Austin3524019%-1.7
Darnell Washington111004%1.2
Allen Robinson12807%-1.3
Pat Freiermuth347015%-2.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Minkah Fitzpatrick640.000
Elandon Roberts350.000
Cole Holcomb430.000
Patrick Peterson320.001
Levi Wallace400.002
Keeanu Benton220.000
Kwon Alexander130.000
Keanu Neal220.000
Larry Ogunjobi120.000
Damontae Kazee300.000

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud16/303062009.8
Devin Singletary1/161001.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Dameon Pierce24813.40-4.2
Devin Singletary7253.60-1.0
C.J. Stroud4164.001.9
Tank Dell2136.500.2
Mike Boone144.001.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Nico Collins79168233%12.3
Dalton Schultz3342111%4.8
Dameon Pierce122707%1.3
Robert Woods3626022%-1.6
John Metchie122207%1.4
Tank Dell1316011%-0.1
Devin Singletary111104%0.7
Andrew Beck01004%-4.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Christian Harris570.000
Henry To'oTo'o340.001
Jonathan Greenard312.000
Grayland Arnold310.000
Jimmie Ward220.000
Jerry Hughes211.000
Neville Hewitt210.000
Sheldon Rankins120.000
Blake Cashman110.000
Jalen Pitre200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
PIT -3
Closing total
41.5
PIT moneyline
-162
HOU moneyline
+136

Steelers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 36 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
open · astroturf
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
PIT 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs DeMeco Ryans