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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
Seattle Seahawks 24, Giants 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 1:19, 2nd and 5, on Devon Witherspoon — 18.5 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 1:19 · 2nd and 5
Devon Witherspoon
Seahawks
(1:19) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left intended for 0-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Witherspoon at SEA 3. 21-D.Witherspoon for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Seahawks closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 21.
Seattle Seahawks 24–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 1:19, Seahawks +18.5% win probability on one snap.
18.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Daniel JonesSeahawksQ1 0:57(:57) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 15 for -10 yards (97-M.Edwards). FUMBLES (97-M.Edwards) [97-M.Edwards], RECOVERED by SEA-56-J.Brooks at NYG 15. 56-J.Brooks pushed ob at NYG 7 for 8 yards (74-M.Peart).
15.3pts
Noah FantSeahawksQ2 1:52(1:52) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right to 87-N.Fant to NYG 1 for 51 yards (19-I.Simmons).
12.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 3 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Seahawks won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Giants at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — -0.11 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.45 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.02 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.33 expected points per carry.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Seahawks157 of 169 plays carry both curves
(1:19) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left intended for 0-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Witherspoon at SEA 3. 21-D.Witherspoon for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −18.5 for GiantsExpected points −12.44 for GiantsThe model had Giants 5 points higher than the market did.play 122
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 1:19SEA +19% win prob(1:19) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left intended for 0-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Witherspoon at SEA 3. 21-D.Witherspoon for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:57SEA +15% win prob(:57) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 15 for -10 yards (97-M.Edwards). FUMBLES (97-M.Edwards) [97-M.Edwards], RECOVERED by SEA-56-J.Brooks at NYG 15. 56-J.Brooks pushed ob at NYG 7 for 8 yards (74-M.Peart).
2nd · 1:52NYG +13% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right to 87-N.Fant to NYG 1 for 51 yards (19-I.Simmons).
3rd · 2:46NYG +7% win prob(2:46) 8-D.Jones scrambles right end to SEA 6 for 10 yards (20-J.Love).
1st · 11:29NYG +7% win prob(11:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 17-W.Robinson ran ob at SEA 36 for 12 yards (27-T.Woolen).
1st · 0:06NYG +6% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
DK Metcalf's 6-yard touchdown catch with 0:06 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
4th5:29Jason Myers·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+324–3
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryGiants
Seahawks7–2Giants
281Total yards248
5.5Yards per play3.4
39%Success rate35%
25%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
6Explosive plays5
12First downs16
2Sacks taken11
0Turnovers3
The read
Seahawks ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.11Seahawks: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.45Giants: −0.45 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.21Seahawks: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.51Giants: −0.51 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Seahawks: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.33Giants: −0.33 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 51 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Giants’s 74 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, Giants 1.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.45.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SEA's sack or hit rate, 29.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
51 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, was the highest of the 22 team-games charted in week 4 — 33.3 points clear of the next team along.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 39.0 points.
SEA's blitz rate sent turned over: 24.2% in week 3 against 43.1% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 21 pts
leaned — got home · +14.7 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+1.74× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Giants10.3%
right on their number · −1.5 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteSEA's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 43.1%, 16.5 points above their season mean of 26.6% and 1.8 times their own 9.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive
78Stone ForsytheT · Every snap100%55 snaps
74Jake CurhanT · Every snap100%55 snaps
63Evan BrownC · Every snap100%55 snaps
75Anthony BradfordG · Full-time91%50 snaps
14DK MetcalfWR · Heavy rotation71%39 snaps
9Kenneth WalkerRB · Heavy rotation71%39 snaps
51Olusegun OluwatimiC · Heavy rotation69%38 snaps
7Geno SmithQB · Heavy rotation69%38 snaps
16Tyler LockettWR · Heavy rotation69%38 snaps
84Colby ParkinsonTE · Heavy rotation58%32 snaps
89Will DisslyTE · Heavy rotation53%29 snaps
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Heavy rotation53%29 snaps
87Noah FantTE · Rotational45%25 snaps
19Jake BoboWR · Rotational38%21 snaps
68Damien LewisG · Rotational31%17 snaps
2Drew LockQB · Rotational31%17 snaps
26Zach CharbonnetRB · Situational24%13 snaps
13Cody ThompsonWR · Situational11%6 snaps
60Phil HaynesG · Situational9%5 snaps
31DeeJay DallasRB · Situational7%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Tre BrownCBArtie BurnsCBCoby BryantCBBen BrownGMcClendon CurtisGNick BelloreILBCharles CrossT
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Jones pass−22% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:19) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left intended for 0-P.Campbell INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Witherspoon at SEA 3. 21-D.Witherspoon for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 1:19 · Giants · 2nd & goal at SEA 5 · gained nothing · -12.44 EP · −21.9% win probability
155 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 75 yards from the SEA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.26
Success rate
36%
Yards
529
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR64-0.4166%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.0978%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.0629%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.0417%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.2120%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Seahawks 27
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 33 to the Seahawks 46
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 34
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Giants 25
Seahawks6Giants0
Seahawks7Giants0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Giants 7 to the Giants 6
2nd quarter54 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 10 to the Giants 42
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Seahawks 38
Seahawks7Giants3
Field goal12 plays, from the Giants 2 to the Seahawks 37
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Seahawks13Giants3
Seahawks14Giants3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Giants 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 28
The period ended11 plays, from the Seahawks 11 to the Seahawks 32
3rd quarter37 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Giants 15
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 16 to the Giants 19
No good4 plays, from the Giants 40 to the Giants 35
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Seahawks20Giants3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Giants 43 to the Seahawks 5
Seahawks21Giants3
The period ended5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 37
4th quarter41 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 40 to the Giants 48
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 33
Intercepted6 plays, from the Giants 13 to the Giants 44
Seahawks24Giants3
Field goal8 plays, from the Giants 45 to the Giants 8
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 41
The period ended5 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Giants 28
The period ended3 plays, from the Giants 29 to the Giants 33
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
