2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

New Orleans Saints

NO -4 upsetU 41 ✓DomeSaints closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:41, TB +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:41TB 7 — NO 3NO ball · 1st & 10TB 62%

(:41) 46-A.Prentice right guard to NO 6 for 5 yards (31-A.Winfield; 96-G.Gaines). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield), RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at NO 6.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:41TB +12% win prob(:41) 46-A.Prentice right guard to NO 6 for 5 yards (31-A.Winfield; 96-G.Gaines). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield), RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at NO 6.
Q2 · 0:46TB +11% win prob(:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 27-I.Yiadom at NO 1. 27-I.Yiadom to NO 1 for no gain (14-C.Godwin).
Q2 · 5:25NO +11% win prob(5:25) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Jordan]. PENALTY on NO-93-N.Shepherd, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q2 · 1:21NO +8% win prob(1:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 83-D.Thompkins to NO 29 for 26 yards (23-M.Lattimore).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:23NO Field goal
(9:23) 19-B.Grupe 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: TB 0 — NO 3
Q2 · 5:25TB Touchdown
(5:25) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Jordan]. PENALTY on NO-93-N.Shepherd, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 7 — NO 3
Q2 · 0:22TB Touchdown
(:22) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 10-T.Palmer for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 14 — NO 3
Q3 · 0:52NO Field goal
(:52) 19-B.Grupe 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: TB 14 — NO 6
Q4 · 13:35TB Field goal
(13:35) 4-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: TB 17 — NO 6
Q4 · 8:34NO Field goal
(8:34) 19-B.Grupe 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: TB 17 — NO 9
Q4 · 3:53TB Touchdown
(3:53) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 83-D.Thompkins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: TB 23 — NO 9
Q4 · 2:27TB Field goal
(2:27) 4-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: TB 26 — NO 9

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Saints
Offensive plays	65	60
Total yards	356 (edge)	198
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	3.3
Expected points added / play	0.05 (edge)	-0.37
Success rate	43% (edge)	28%
Dropback rate	62%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.26 (edge)	-0.37
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.29 (edge)	-0.35
Third downs	8/14 (edge)	5/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.37.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

25/32, 246 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

7.9 expected points added · +15.1% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Derek CarrQB

23/37, 127 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-12.8 expected points added · -8.3% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

15 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

-3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

11 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

8/11 for 114 yds, 0 TD

37% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Michael ThomasWR

4/6 for 53 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	12	41	5:40	Field goal +3
2	TB	TB 25	9	49	4:00	Punt
3	NO	NO 16	4	1	0:56	Punt
4	TB	TB 37	4	3	0:50	Punt
5	NO	NO 19	9	37	4:24	Punt
6	TB	TB 13	18	79	8:51	Touchdown +7
7	NO	NO 25	8	15	3:13	Punt
8	TB	TB 20	8	69	1:25	Interception
9	NO	NO 1	1	5	0:12	Fumble
10	TB	NO 6	3	6	0:10	Touchdown +7
11	NO	NO 17	2	0	0:19	End of half
12	TB	TB 25	5	-5	2:15	Punt
13	NO	NO 46	4	-6	1:22	Punt
14	TB	TB 12	6	20	3:25	Punt
15	NO	NO 29	12	57	7:09	Field goal +3
16	TB	TB 25	7	52	2:18	Field goal +3
17	NO	NO 25	15	54	5:02	Field goal +3
18	TB	TB 25	12	75	4:45	Touchdown +6
19	NO	NO 25	5	-6	0:22	Fumble
20	TB	NO 19	4	9	0:58	Field goal +3
21	NO	NO 25	2	0	0:10	Interception
22	TB	TB 46	4	-1	2:14	End of game

8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 79 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	25/32	246	3	1	1	7.9
Chris Godwin	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rachaad White	15	56	3.7	-3.1
Baker Mayfield	8	31	3.9	1.8
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	9	16	1.8	-4.8
Deven Thompkins	1	11	11.0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Godwin	8	11	114	0	37%	3.9
Deven Thompkins	4	4	45	1	13%	5.8
Mike Evans	3	3	40	0	10%	1.8
Rachaad White	3	3	22	0	10%	1.0
Cade Otton	3	4	13	1	13%	-0.0
Trey Palmer	2	3	6	1	10%	-0.0
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.3
Rakim Jarrett	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Antoine Winfield	6	3	1.0	0	1
Christian Izien	4	2	0.0	0	0
Devin White	2	3	0.0	0	0
Zyon McCollum	4	0	0.0	0	1
Shaquil Barrett	3	0	0.0	0	0
Dee Delaney	3	0	0.0	1	1
Vita Vea	2	1	2.0	0	0
Carlton Davis	3	0	0.0	0	1
Joe Tryon	1	1	0.0	0	0
YaYa Diaby	2	0	0.0	0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	23/37	127	0	2	-12.8
Taysom Hill	1/1	13	0	1	-0.3
Jameis Winston	0/1	0	1	0	-2.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	11	51	4.6	-1.8
Taysom Hill	4	10	2.5	0.9
Adam Prentice	1	5	5.0	-5.3
Kendre Miller	1	3	3.0	-0.4
Derek Carr	2	1	0.5	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Thomas	4	6	53	16%	4.0
Alvin Kamara	13	14	33	37%	-3.5
Rashid Shaheed	3	7	33	18%	-0.0
Taysom Hill	1	1	7	3%	-0.6
Adam Prentice	1	2	5	5%	-1.5
Kendre Miller	1	1	5	3%	-0.5
Chris Olave	1	6	4	16%	-6.4
Lynn Bowden	0	1	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Malcolm Roach	1	5	0	0
Pete Werner	3	3	0	0
Isaac Yiadom	4	1	1	2
Johnathan Abram	1	4	0	0
Demario Davis	2	3	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	3	2	0	0
Marshon Lattimore	5	0	0	0
Carl Granderson	2	2	0	0
Zack Baun	3	1	0	0
Cameron Jordan	3	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -4
Closing total: 41
TB moneyline: +170
NO moneyline: -205

Saints closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 35 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: TB 6 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Dennis Allen

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.