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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 at New Orleans Saints 9. Final.
Saints -4 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26, Saints 9 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 0:41, 1st and 10, on Adam Prentice — 12.0 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:41 · 1st and 10
Adam Prentice
Buccaneers
(:41) 46-A.Prentice right guard to NO 6 for 5 yards (31-A.Winfield; 96-G.Gaines). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield), RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at NO 6.
U 41 ✓
Dome
Saints closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:41, Buccaneers +12.0% win probability on one snap.
12.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cade OttonBuccaneersQ2 5:25(5:25) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Jordan]. PENALTY on NO-93-N.Shepherd, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
11.0pts
Isaac YiadomSaintsQ2 0:46(:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 27-I.Yiadom at NO 1. 27-I.Yiadom to NO 1 for no gain (14-C.Godwin).
11.4pts
What separated them
Red zone
Buccaneers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Saints at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.26 expected points per dropback, against Saints at -0.37 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.37 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Saints at 2 chunk plays.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Buccaneers169 of 179 plays carry both curves
(:41) 46-A.Prentice right guard to NO 6 for 5 yards (31-A.Winfield; 96-G.Gaines). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield), RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at NO 6.
Swing −12.0 for SaintsExpected points −5.26 for SaintsThe model had Buccaneers 4 points higher than the market did.play 83
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:41TB +12% win prob(:41) 46-A.Prentice right guard to NO 6 for 5 yards (31-A.Winfield; 96-G.Gaines). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield), RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at NO 6.
2nd · 0:46TB +11% win prob(:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 14-C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by 27-I.Yiadom at NO 1. 27-I.Yiadom to NO 1 for no gain (14-C.Godwin).
2nd · 5:25NO +11% win prob(5:25) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Jordan]. PENALTY on NO-93-N.Shepherd, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
2nd · 1:21NO +8% win prob(1:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 83-D.Thompkins to NO 29 for 26 yards (23-M.Lattimore).
2nd · 3:01TB +6% win prob(3:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at NO 40 for -4 yards (31-A.Winfield).
3rd · 0:12NO +6% win prob(:12) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at NO 40 for 32 yards (1-A.Taylor).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cade Otton's 4-yard touchdown catch with 5:25 left in the 2nd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:23Blake Grupe·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder L.Hedley · snap Z.Wood+30–3
4th2:27Chase McLaughlin·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+326–9
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categorySaints
Buccaneers9–0Saints
356Total yards198
5.5Yards per play3.3
43%Success rate28%
57%Third-down rate33%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
7Explosive plays2
21First downs13
1Sacks taken3
1Turnovers3
The read
Buccaneers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Buccaneers: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.37Saints: −0.37 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.26Buccaneers: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.37Saints: −0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.29Buccaneers: −0.29 expected points added per play
−0.35Saints: −0.35 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 65 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Saints’s 60 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, Saints 2.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.37.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · −1.6 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Saints7.5%
inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 11.2%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteTB's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 35.0%, 12.2 points above their season mean of 22.8% and 1.3 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Prentice right−13% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:41) 46-A.Prentice right guard to NO 6 for 5 yards (31-A.Winfield; 96-G.Gaines). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield), RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at NO 6.
Q2 0:41 · Saints · 1st & 10 at NO 1 · gained 5 · -5.26 EP · −13.2% win probability
167 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 87 yards from the TB 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
33%
Yards
550
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.1457%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.0971%
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR19-0.4279%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.2342%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.5857%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints0 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Buccaneers0Saints3
Field goal13 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Buccaneers 19
Punt11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Saints 43
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 16 to the Saints 17
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Buccaneers 40
The period ended9 plays, from the Saints 19 to the Saints 46
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Saints 46 to the Buccaneers 49
Buccaneers6Saints3
Buccaneers7Saints3
Touchdown20 plays, from the Buccaneers 13 to the Saints 2
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 44
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Saints 21
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Buccaneers13Saints3
Buccaneers14Saints3
Touchdown4 plays, from the Saints 6 to the Saints 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 27
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 46 to the Buccaneers 44
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 12 to the Buccaneers 32
Buccaneers14Saints6
Field goal12 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Buccaneers 14
The period ended4 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 28
4th quarter54 plays
Buccaneers17Saints6
Field goal6 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Saints 33
Buccaneers17Saints9
Field goal16 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Buccaneers 26
Buccaneers23Saints9
Touchdown13 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Saints 5
Fumble lost5 plays
Buccaneers26Saints9
Field goal6 plays, from the Saints 19 to the Saints 10
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Buccaneers 46 to midfield
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
