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2023 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 1, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field

Washington Commanders

31

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

34

PHI -9.5 no coverO 43 ✓

Philadelphia Eagles 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 4:04, PHI +38% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4PHI ↑WAS ↓
OT · 4:04WAS 31 — PHI 34PHI ball · 4th & 8PHI 62%

(4:04) 4-J.Elliott 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. OT · 4:04PHI +38% win prob(4:04) 4-J.Elliott 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
  2. OT · 4:50WAS +24% win prob(4:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep middle [96-J.Smith-Williams]. PENALTY on PHI-1-J.Hurts, Intentional Grounding, 11 yards, enforced at WAS 34.
  3. OT · 7:13PHI +21% win prob(7:13) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to WAS 48 for 2 yards (57-C.Barton).
  4. Q4 · 0:02PHI +21% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 1-J.Dotson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:55WAS Touchdown

    (7:55) (Shotgun) 4-C.Samuel left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 7 — PHI 0
  2. Q1 · 1:20PHI Touchdown

    (1:20) (Shotgun) 0-D.Swift left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 7 — PHI 7
  3. Q2 · 13:08WAS Touchdown

    (13:08) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left end to PHI 1 for no gain (41-N.Morrow; 24-J.Bradberry). FUMBLES (41-N.Morrow), recovered by WAS-17-T.McLaurin at PHI -4. TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 14 — PHI 7
  4. Q2 · 1:42WAS Field goal

    (1:42) 6-J.Slye 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 17 — PHI 7
  5. Q2 · 0:04PHI Field goal

    (:04) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

    Score after this play: WAS 17 — PHI 10
  6. Q3 · 11:43PHI Field goal

    (11:43) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

    Score after this play: WAS 17 — PHI 13
  7. Q3 · 7:24PHI Touchdown

    (7:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS-90-M.Sweat, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: WAS 17 — PHI 21
  8. Q4 · 14:17PHI Field goal

    (14:17) 4-J.Elliott 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

    Score after this play: WAS 17 — PHI 24
  9. Q4 · 8:07WAS Touchdown

    (8:07) 8-B.Robinson left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 24 — PHI 24
  10. Q4 · 1:49PHI Touchdown

    (1:49) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 11-A.Brown for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-11-A.Brown, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 24 — PHI 31
  11. Q4 · 0:02WAS Touchdown

    (:02) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 1-J.Dotson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 31 — PHI 31
  12. OT · 4:04PHI Field goal

    (4:04) 4-J.Elliott 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

    Score after this play: WAS 31 — PHI 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCommandersEagles
Offensive plays7468
Total yards365417 (edge)
Yards per play4.96.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.20 (edge)0.18
Success rate41%49% (edge)
Dropback rate69%65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.210.24 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.19 (edge)0.05
Third downs8/17 (edge)4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)66
First downs gained on snaps2021 (edge)
Sacks taken53 (edge)
Turnovers00

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

25/37, 319 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.6 expected points added · +10.5% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Sam HowellQB

29/41, 290 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.7 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

14 att, 56 yds, 1 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

14 att, 45 yds, 1 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

A.J. BrownWR

9/13 for 175 yds, 2 TD

38% of team targets · 12.1 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

8/10 for 86 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1WASWAS 2516757:08Touchdown +7
2PHIPHI 2514656:35Touchdown +7
3WASWAS 259673:21Turnover on downs +7
4PHIPHI 257242:42Punt
5WASWAS 214-62:21Punt
6PHIPHI 434-31:47Punt
7WASWAS 2611564:27Field goal +3
8PHIPHI 259521:39Field goal +3
9PHIPHI 2510453:22Field goal +3
10WASWAS 25662:14Punt
11PHIPHI 265712:13Touchdown +8
12WASWAS 258122:57Punt
13PHIPHI 3110464:59Field goal +3
14WASWAS 2513656:14Touchdown +7
15PHIPHI 256261:33Punt
16WASWAS 77213:08Punt
17PHIPHI 437571:37Touchdown +7
18WASWAS 3612641:43Touchdown +7
19WASWAS 25551:34Punt
20PHIPHI 4110344:28Field goal +3

12 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 75 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Howell29/412901057.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Brian Robinson14453.211.8
Sam Howell6406.705.6
Antonio Gibson6193.20-1.4
Logan Thomas122.000.5
Curtis Samuel111.010.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Terry McLaurin81086026%2.7
Curtis Samuel7851021%3.1
Dyami Brown235108%4.7
Logan Thomas334108%3.2
Jahan Dotson4927123%1.2
Byron Pringle121505%-0.4
Antonio Gibson11703%1.1
Brian Robinson22605%-0.4
John Bates11603%0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kamren Curl831.000
Cody Barton710.000
Emmanuel Forbes620.002
Darrick Forrest240.000
Jamin Davis410.000
Benjamin St-Juste410.000
Jonathan Allen221.000
Chase Young211.000
Kendall Fuller300.000
Montez Sweat100.000

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jalen Hurts25/3731920310.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
D'Andre Swift14564.01-0.5
Jalen Hurts9343.801.4
Kenneth Gainwell4143.500.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
A.J. Brown913175238%12.1
DeVonta Smith7978026%-1.8
Dallas Goedert2425012%1.5
D'Andre Swift4423012%3.0
Olamide Zaccheaus121106%1.0
Kenneth Gainwell22706%0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Zach Cunningham940.000
Darius Slay910.000
Nicholas Morrow913.000
Reed Blankenship440.003
Josh Sweat321.000
James Bradberry320.000
Terrell Edmunds130.000
Fletcher Cox120.000
Haason Reddick111.000
Milton Williams110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
PHI -9.5
Closing total
43
WAS moneyline
+350
PHI moneyline
-455

Eagles closed -9.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 43; the game landed 65 — over by 22.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
WAS 7 days · PHI 6 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Nick Sirianni

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.