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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:03 AM ET · 16 to play
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Commanders186 of 198 plays carry both curves
(4:04) 4-J.Elliott 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Swing +37.6 for EaglesExpected points +2.11 for EaglesModel and market agree here.play 197
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 4:04PHI +38% win prob(4:04) 4-J.Elliott 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Overtime · 4:50WAS +24% win prob(4:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep middle [96-J.Smith-Williams]. PENALTY on PHI-1-J.Hurts, Intentional Grounding, 11 yards, enforced at WAS 34.
Overtime · 7:13PHI +21% win prob(7:13) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to WAS 48 for 2 yards (57-C.Barton).
4th · 0:02PHI +21% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 1-J.Dotson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:34PHI +19% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 13-O.Zaccheaus to WAS 44 for 11 yards (22-D.Forrest).
Overtime · 6:02PHI +18% win prob(6:02) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 0-D.Swift ran ob at WAS 38 for 11 yards (31-K.Curl).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Elliott's 54-yard field goal with 4:04 left in overtime put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:02Jahan Dotson·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Howellfrom Sam Howell+731–31
Overtime4:04Jake Elliott·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap R.LovatoLead never changed again+331–34
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryEagles
Commanders2–5Eagles
365Total yards417
4.9Yards per play6.1
41%Success rate49%
47%Third-down rate33%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays6
20First downs21
5Sacks taken3
0Turnovers0
The read
Eagles ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.20Commanders: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.18Eagles: +0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Commanders: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.24Eagles: +0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.19Commanders: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.05Eagles: +0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 74 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Eagles’s 68 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 5, Eagles 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's blitz rate sent turned over: 13.8% in week 3 against 31.4% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
PHI's play-action rate turned over: 12.5% in week 3 against 29.5% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
WAS's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.9% in week 3 against 20.5% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 25 pts
inside their normal wobble · +7.9 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Eagles17.6%
inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
NotePHI's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 31.4%, 10.1 points above their season mean of 21.3% and 1.3 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
Jake Elliott+38% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:04) 4-J.Elliott 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
OT 4:04 · Eagles · 4th & 8 at WAS 36 · gained nothing · +2.11 EP · +37.6% win probability
184 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 198 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 192. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 75 yards from the WAS 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
198 of 198 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
198
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
41%
Yards
782
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61+0.1559%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59+0.2866%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.1846%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.4240%
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
198 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
198 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Commanders6Eagles0
Commanders7Eagles0
Touchdown17 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Eagles 1
Commanders7Eagles6
Commanders7Eagles7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Commanders 5
The period ended4 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 35
2nd quarter48 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Commanders13Eagles7
Commanders14Eagles7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Commanders 36 to the Eagles 1
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 49
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 21 to the Commanders 23
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 43 to the Eagles 45
Commanders17Eagles7
Field goal14 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Eagles 9
Commanders17Eagles10
Field goal10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Commanders 23
3rd quarter42 plays
Commanders17Eagles13
Field goal10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Commanders 30
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 36
How the play was built
A man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Commanders17Eagles19
Commanders17Eagles21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Eagles 41
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 42
The period ended10 plays, from the Eagles 31 to the Commanders 15
4th quarter55 plays
Commanders17Eagles24
Field goal2 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Commanders23Eagles24
Commanders24Eagles24
Touchdown14 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Eagles 15
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Commanders 49
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 7 to the Commanders 30
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Commanders24Eagles30
Commanders24Eagles31
Touchdown9 plays, from the Eagles 43 to the Commanders 28
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Commanders30Eagles31
Commanders31Eagles31
Touchdown14 plays, from the Commanders 36 to the Eagles 10
Overtime16 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 30
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, no huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxTen defenders
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown away.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Commanders31Eagles34
Field goal10 plays, from the Eagles 41 to the Commanders 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -9.5
Closing total
43
Commanders moneyline
+350
Eagles moneyline
-455
Eagles closed -9.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43; the game landed 65 — over by 22.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 77°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the north; clear.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
Commanders 7 days · Eagles 6 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Nick Sirianni
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 7:24
PHI +17% win prob
(7:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS-90-M.Sweat, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
Overtime · 8:35PHI +17% win prob(8:35) 5-T.Way punts 29 yards to PHI 41, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-95-C.Toohill.
