2023 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 8, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium

Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

BAL -4.5 upsetU 38.5 ✓Ravens closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17–10. Biggest swing: Q4 1:12, BAL +31% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:12BAL 10 — PIT 14BAL ball · 1st & 10PIT 67%

(1:12) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 35 for -9 yards (56-A.Highsmith). FUMBLES (56-A.Highsmith), RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at BAL 36. 90-T.Watt to BAL 18 for 18 yards (3-O.Beckham; 8-L.Jackson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:12BAL +31% win prob(1:12) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 35 for -9 yards (56-A.Highsmith). FUMBLES (56-A.Highsmith), RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at BAL 36. 90-T.Watt to BAL 18 for 18 yards (3-O.Beckham; 8-L.Jackson).
Q4 · 1:23PIT +31% win prob(1:23) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep right to 14-G.Pickens for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 4:10BAL +19% win prob(4:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 3-O.Beckham INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Porter at PIT -4. Touchback.
Q4 · 5:48PIT +19% win prob(5:48) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to PIT 17, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-G.Olszewski to PIT 25 for 8 yards (48-J.Moon). FUMBLES (48-J.Moon), touched at PIT 25, RECOVERED by BAL-25-K.Seymour at PIT 27. 25-K.Seymour to PIT 7 for 20 yards. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at PIT 5. Penalty on PIT-93-M.Robinson, Offensive Holding, declined.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:20BAL Touchdown
(6:20) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill left guard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 7 — PIT 0
Q2 · 12:25BAL Field goal
(12:25) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 10 — PIT 0
Q2 · 3:21PIT Field goal
(3:21) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-B.Wing.
Score after this play: BAL 10 — PIT 3
Q4 · 11:18PIT Safety
(11:18) 11-J.Stout punt is BLOCKED by 28-M.Killebrew, Center-69-T.Ott, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.
Score after this play: BAL 10 — PIT 5
Q4 · 7:13PIT Field goal
(7:13) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-B.Wing.
Score after this play: BAL 10 — PIT 8
Q4 · 1:23PIT Touchdown
(1:23) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep right to 14-G.Pickens for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: BAL 10 — PIT 14
Q4 · 0:52PIT Field goal
(:52) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-B.Wing.
Score after this play: BAL 10 — PIT 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Steelers
Offensive plays	67	61
Total yards	335 (edge)	297
Yards per play	5.0 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	-0.23	-0.03 (edge)
Success rate	42% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	67%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.41	0.07 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.18
Third downs	5/14	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	4	3 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Ravens outgained Steelers 335–297 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

22/38, 236 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-13.2 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Kenny PickettQB

18/32, 224 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.1 expected points added · -6.0% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

12 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

6 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

George PickensWR

6/10 for 130 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 8.9 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

5/11 for 73 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · -1.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	8	34	2:24	Punt
2	PIT	PIT 4	7	16	3:24	Punt
3	BAL	BAL 41	8	59	2:57	Touchdown +7
4	PIT	PIT 25	5	4	1:30	Punt
5	BAL	BAL 32	15	64	7:22	Field goal +3
6	PIT	PIT 10	12	43	4:14	Punt
7	BAL	BAL 8	5	35	2:38	Fumble
8	PIT	PIT 49	7	26	2:15	Field goal +3
9	BAL	BAL 25	12	52	3:03	Turnover on downs
10	PIT	PIT 23	1	0	0:13	End of half
11	PIT	PIT 25	5	9	1:55	Punt
12	BAL	BAL 23	6	28	2:58	Punt
13	PIT	PIT 13	9	27	4:19	Punt
14	BAL	BAL 18	5	31	2:34	Punt
15	PIT	PIT 15	9	43	4:37	Punt
16	BAL	BAL 20	4	4	2:25	Punt
17	PIT	PIT 44	10	49	4:02	Field goal +3
18	BAL	BAL 25	5	8	1:37	Punt
19	BAL	PIT 7	3	2	1:27	Interception
20	PIT	PIT 20	9	80	2:49	Touchdown +6
21	BAL	BAL 25	3	11	0:15	Fumble
22	PIT	BAL 18	4	0	0:13	Field goal +3
23	BAL	BAL 25	5	7	0:34	Turnover on downs
24	PIT	BAL 37	1	0	0:15	End of game

6 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	22/38	236	0	1	4	-13.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Gus Edwards	12	48	4.0	0	-0.8
Lamar Jackson	6	45	7.5	0	0.6
Justice Hill	7	32	4.6	1	2.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Flowers	5	11	73	29%	-1.7
Mark Andrews	6	10	65	26%	0.7
Nelson Agholor	4	5	64	13%	3.7
Justice Hill	4	4	13	11%	-4.0
Odell Beckham	2	4	13	11%	-4.6
Rashod Bateman	1	3	8	8%	-1.4
Devin Duvernay	0	1	0	3%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Roquan Smith	7	4	0.0	1
Patrick Queen	1	6	0.5	1
Brandon Stephens	3	2	0.0	1
Marlon Humphrey	4	0	0.0	0
Marcus Williams	2	2	0.0	0
Nnamdi Madubuike	2	2	0.5	0
Travis Jones	1	2	0.0	0
Brent Urban	2	0	1.0	0
Geno Stone	1	1	0.0	0
Kyle Hamilton	2	0	0.0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kenny Pickett	18/32	224	1	0	3	3.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jaylen Warren	9	40	4.4	-0.7
Najee Harris	14	37	2.6	-4.7
George Pickens	1	16	16.0	1.0
Kenny Pickett	6	-6	-1.0	-3.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Pickens	6	10	130	1	32%	8.9
Jaylen Warren	3	3	39	0	10%	4.4
Allen Robinson	5	9	29	0	29%	-0.7
Connor Heyward	3	4	23	0	13%	2.9
Najee Harris	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.3
Miles Boykin	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.3
Calvin Austin	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.4
Darnell Washington	0	2	0	0	6%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Minkah Fitzpatrick	7	2	0.0	0	0
Elandon Roberts	5	3	0.0	0	0
Cole Holcomb	6	1	0.0	0	1
Kwon Alexander	6	0	1.0	0	0
Levi Wallace	3	0	0.0	0	1
Keeanu Benton	1	2	0.0	0	0
Keanu Neal	3	0	0.0	0	0
T.J. Watt	2	0	2.0	0	2
Alex Highsmith	1	1	1.0	0	0
Joey Porter	0	2	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -4.5
Closing total: 38.5
BAL moneyline: -230
PIT moneyline: +190

Ravens closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 38.5; the game landed 27 — under by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 53°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: BAL 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Mike Tomlin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.