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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 8, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 5
It turned at Q4 1:12, 1st and 10, on Lamar Jackson — 31.3 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:12 · 1st and 10
Lamar Jackson
Steelers
(1:12) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 35 for -9 yards (56-A.Highsmith). FUMBLES (56-A.Highsmith), RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at BAL 36. 90-T.Watt to BAL 18 for 18 yards (3-O.Beckham; 8-L.Jackson).
Pittsburgh Steelers 17–10. Biggest swing: Q4 1:12, Steelers +31.3% win probability on one snap.
31.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — no giveaways, against Ravens at 3 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.07 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at -0.41 expected points per dropback.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — +0.14 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.18 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Steelers at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(1:12) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 35 for -9 yards (56-A.Highsmith). FUMBLES (56-A.Highsmith), RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at BAL 36. 90-T.Watt to BAL 18 for 18 yards (3-O.Beckham; 8-L.Jackson).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
George Pickens's 41-yard touchdown catch with 1:23 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Steelerssafetysafetytwo points, and the ball back+210–5
George Pickens41-yd TD catch41-yard touchdown catchfrom Kenny Pickett · two-point no goodLead never changed again+610–147 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ravenscategory by categorySteelers
Ravens ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 67 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Steelers’s 61 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 3, Steelers 3.
Ravens outgained Steelers 335-297 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's blitz rate sent, 46.7%, is past their previous high of 38.7% in week 4 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
BAL's early-down pass rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 60.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
BAL's sack or hit rate, 8.1%, is past their previous low of 11.6% in week 2 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
BAL's pass rate over expected turned over: −11.6 pts in week 4 against +2.6 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Ravens2.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.2 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 67 snaps
Steelers-5.2 ptsright on their number · +0.9 vs their -6.1 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 84%
Tendencies room →Ravens66.7%leaned — passed early · +14.3 vs their 52.4%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+1.45× that swing) · 51 early downs
Steelers50.0%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 48.1%, and they swing ±14.1 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 42%
Tendencies room →Ravens15.6%inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 20.0%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Steelers8.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −7.9 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -39% to 95%
Fourth Down room →Ravens25.0%right on their number · +8.3 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±18.8 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Steelers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 28.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 59%
Tendencies room →Ravens21.6%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 23.7%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Steelers46.7%leaned — sent pressure · +18.0 vs their 28.6%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+1.56× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 32%
Tendencies room →Ravens8.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.3 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.37× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Steelers15.6%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
PIT's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 46.7%, 18.0 points above their season mean of 28.6% and 1.6 times their own 11.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 5 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · BAL
22/38, 236 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-13.2 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
18/32, 224 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
3.1 expected points added · -6.0% completion over expected
Receiving · PIT
6/10 for 130 yds, 1 TD
32% of team targets · 8.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
George Pickens banked 9.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George PickensWR · Alpha Receiver | 26.6 | +9.1 | 88% | 95% | 32% | 64% | 1 car, 16 yd · 6/10, 130 yd, 1 TD |
| Justice HillRB · Receiving Back | 12.5 | +2.2 | 56% | 60% | 11% | 0% | 7 car, 32 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 13 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Alpha Receiver | 12.5 | −6.3 | 94% | 91% | 26% | 16% | 6/10, 65 yd |
| Kenny PickettQB · Starter QB | 12.4 | +0.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/32, 224 yd, 1 TD · 6 car, -6 yd |
| Zay FlowersWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.3 | −7.3 | 99% | 93% | 29% | 40% | 5/11, 73 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | 10.9 | +1.8 | 49% | 57% | 10% | 0% | 9 car, 40 yd · 3/3, 39 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.4 | +2.6 | 59% | 53% | 13% | 20% | 4/5, 64 yd |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 9.9 | −14.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/38, 236 yd, 1 INT · 6 car, 45 yd |
| Allen RobinsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.9 | −5.8 | 86% | 95% | 29% | 21% | 5/9, 29 yd |
| Connor HeywardTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | +0.3 | 56% | 57% | 13% | 6% | 3/4, 23 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 5.0 | −2.9 | 56% | 41% | 3% | 0% | 14 car, 37 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Gus EdwardsRB | 4.8 | −1.6 | 43% | 33% | 0% | — | 12 car, 48 yd |
| Odell BeckhamWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −4.3 | 53% | 60% | 11% | 11% | 2/4, 13 yd |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −5.0 | 39% | 29% | 8% | 11% | 1/3, 8 yd |
| Patrick RicardRB | 0.0 | — | 37% | 29% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Devin DuvernayWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Laquon TreadwellWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.5 | 70% | 49% | 6% | 1% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Miles BoykinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.4 | 18% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Calvin AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 56% | 73% | 3% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:23) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep right to 14-G.Pickens for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 1:23 · Steelers · 2nd & 9 at BAL 41 · gained 41 · +4.63 EP · +27.8% win probability
161 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 80 yards from the PIT 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Ravens6
Steelers0Ravens7Steelers0Ravens10Steelers0Ravens10Steelers3How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket, thrown away.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Ravens10Steelers5Ravens10Steelers8How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Ravens10Steelers14How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Ravens10Steelers17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Ravens at Steelers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 22/38 | 236 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −13.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Lamar Jackson | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Justice Hill | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 1 | +2.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 5 | 11 | 73 | 0 | 29% | −1.7 |
| Mark Andrews | 6 | 10 | 65 | 0 | 26% | +0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Patrick Queen | 1 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Brandon Stephens | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marlon Humphrey |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 18/32 | 224 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +3.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_05_BAL_PIT
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 27 — under by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Nelson Agholor | 4 | 5 | 64 | 0 | 13% | +3.7 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 11% | −4.0 |
| Odell Beckham | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 11% | −4.6 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 8% | −1.4 |
| Devin Duvernay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Marcus Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brent Urban | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Geno Stone | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 |
| 40 |
| 4.4 |
| 0 |
| −0.7 |
| Najee Harris | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 0 | −4.7 |
| George Pickens | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 6 | -6 | -1.0 | 0 | −3.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 6 | 10 | 130 | 1 | 32% | +8.9 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 10% | +4.4 |
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 9 | 29 | 0 | 29% | −0.7 |
| Connor Heyward | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 13% | +2.9 |
| Najee Harris | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Miles Boykin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.3 |
| Calvin Austin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.4 |
| Darnell Washington | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elandon Roberts | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Holcomb | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kwon Alexander | 6 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Wallace | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Keeanu Benton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keanu Neal | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Watt | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Alex Highsmith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Porter | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
