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2023 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 8, 2023 · Ford Field

Carolina Panthers

24

Detroit LionsWinner

42

DET -9.5 ✓O 43.5 ✓Dome

Detroit Lions 42–24 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:50, DET +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DET ↑CAR ↓
Q1 · 9:50CAR 0 — DET 6DET ball · 1st & 10DET 86%

(9:50) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 9:50DET +6% win prob(9:50) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 13:10DET +5% win prob(13:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 17-D.Chark to DET 45 for 18 yards (34-A.Anzalone). Detroit challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
  3. Q1 · 7:37CAR +5% win prob(7:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 97-A.Hutchinson at CAR 26. 97-A.Hutchinson to CAR 20 for 6 yards (15-J.Mingo).
  4. Q2 · 10:07CAR +4% win prob(10:07) 6-M.Sanders left end to CAR 38 for 1 yard (54-A.McNeill). FUMBLES (54-A.McNeill), RECOVERED by DET-25-W.Harris at CAR 41. 25-W.Harris pushed ob at CAR 38 for 3 yards (82-T.Tremble).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:50DET Touchdown

    (9:50) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — DET 7
  2. Q1 · 4:59DET Touchdown

    (4:59) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-S.LaPorta for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — DET 14
  3. Q2 · 12:52CAR Touchdown

    (12:52) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 82-T.Tremble for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — DET 14
  4. Q2 · 3:55DET Touchdown

    (3:55) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — DET 21
  5. Q2 · 3:29DET Touchdown

    (3:29) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — DET 28
  6. Q2 · 0:10CAR Field goal

    (:10) 4-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: CAR 10 — DET 28
  7. Q4 · 15:00DET Touchdown

    (15:00) 16-J.Goff up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 10 — DET 35
  8. Q4 · 11:57CAR Touchdown

    (11:57) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 17-D.Chark for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 17 — DET 35
  9. Q4 · 7:32DET Touchdown

    (7:32) 13-C.Reynolds left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 17 — DET 42
  10. Q4 · 2:00CAR Touchdown

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 24 — DET 42

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPanthersLions
Offensive plays6557
Total yards342380 (edge)
Yards per play5.36.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.080.25 (edge)
Success rate48%54% (edge)
Dropback rate66%53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.010.19 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.220.32 (edge)
Third downs5/10 (edge)4/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)49 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2222
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers30 (edge)

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

25/41, 247 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

-0.0 expected points added · +2.2% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

20/28, 236 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

5.8 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

David MontgomeryRB

19 att, 109 yds, 1 TD

4.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Craig ReynoldsRB

7 att, 52 yds, 1 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Adam ThielenWR

11/13 for 107 yds, 1 TD

37% of team targets · 10.9 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Josh ReynoldsWR

4/5 for 76 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CARCAR 2510364:02Punt
2DETDET 194811:17Touchdown +7
3CARCAR 176142:13Interception
4DETCAR 206202:35Touchdown +7
5CARCAR 2516757:05Touchdown +7
6DETDET 199442:41Turnover on downs
7CARCAR 37110:09Fumble
8DETCAR 3811386:08Touchdown +7
9CARCAR 23200:21Interception
10DETCAR 312310:08Touchdown +7
11CARCAR 3210483:15Field goal +3
12DETDET 25200:06End of half
13DETDET 2513326:33Punt
14CARCAR 106272:12Punt
15DETDET 28440:54Punt
16CARCAR 16460:50Punt
17DETDET 499514:33Touchdown +7
18CARCAR 259603:06Touchdown +7
19DETDET 259754:25Touchdown +7
20CARCAR 2515755:32Touchdown +7
21DETCAR 45441:55End of game

10 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 81 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bryce Young25/41247321-0.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chuba Hubbard9353.90-0.8
Miles Sanders7324.60-5.5
Laviska Shenault Jr.5275.401.0
Bryce Young144.00-0.2
Andy Dalton111.000.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Adam Thielen1113107137%10.9
Jonathan Mingo5748020%-2.1
D.J. Chark3642117%3.4
Ian Thomas122806%-4.5
Hayden Hurst332109%0.4
Tommy Tremble11113%1.1
Chuba Hubbard12006%-1.0
Miles Sanders01003%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Vonn Bell450.000
Sam Franklin510.000
Derrick Brown240.000
Frankie Luvu240.000
C.J. Henderson321.000
Shy Tuttle130.000
Brian Burns211.000
Troy Hill120.000
Jeremy Chinn110.000
D'Shawn Jamison110.000

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff20/282363025.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
David Montgomery191095.714.6
Craig Reynolds7527.413.4
Jared Goff200.010.7
Teddy Bridgewater2-2-1.00-2.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Josh Reynolds4576119%5.5
Sam LaPorta3447215%6.0
Kalif Raymond3345011%3.5
Marvin Jones222207%1.0
David Montgomery2620022%-2.8
Brock Wright3316011%0.3
Zonovan Knight11804%0.6
Jameson Williams232011%-2.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alex Anzalone730.000
Will Harris620.001
Derrick Barnes240.000
Kerby Joseph410.000
Tracy Walker III310.000
Cameron Sutton220.000
Alim McNeill210.000
Jerry Jacobs300.011
Aidan Hutchinson301.011
Jack Campbell200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -9.5
Closing total
43.5
CAR moneyline
+350
DET moneyline
-455

Lions closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 18.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 66 — over by 22.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
CAR 7 days · DET 10 days
Coaches
Frank Reich vs Dan Campbell