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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Detroit Lions 42, Panthers 24 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 9:50, 1st and 10, on David Montgomery — 5.9 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Dome
Lions closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 18.
Detroit Lions 42–24 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:50, Lions +5.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:50 · 1st and 10
David Montgomery
Lions
(9:50) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.J. CharkPanthersQ1 13:10(13:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 17-D.Chark to DET 45 for 18 yards (34-A.Anzalone). Detroit challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
4.9pts
Aidan HutchinsonLionsQ1 7:37(7:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 97-A.Hutchinson at CAR 26. 97-A.Hutchinson to CAR 20 for 6 yards (15-J.Mingo).
4.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Lions won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 3 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Lions won this one — +0.32 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.22 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Lions won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Panthers at 4 chunk plays.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Lions won this one — +0.25 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.08 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Panthers166 of 171 plays carry both curves
(9:50) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +5.9 for LionsExpected points +3.53 for LionsThe model had Panthers 20 points higher than the market did.play 16
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:50DET +6% win prob(9:50) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:10DET +5% win prob(13:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 17-D.Chark to DET 45 for 18 yards (34-A.Anzalone). Detroit challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
1st · 7:37CAR +5% win prob(7:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 97-A.Hutchinson at CAR 26. 97-A.Hutchinson to CAR 20 for 6 yards (15-J.Mingo).
2nd · 10:07CAR +4% win prob(10:07) 6-M.Sanders left end to CAR 38 for 1 yard (54-A.McNeill). FUMBLES (54-A.McNeill), RECOVERED by DET-25-W.Harris at CAR 41. 25-W.Harris pushed ob at CAR 38 for 3 yards (82-T.Tremble).
2nd · 10:12CAR +2% win prob(10:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 5-D.Montgomery.
1st · 10:58DET +2% win prob(10:58) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 11-K.Raymond to DET 42 for 23 yards (49-F.Luvu).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
David Montgomery's 42-yard rushing touchdown with 9:50 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:50David Montgomery·42-yd TD run42-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st4:59Sam LaPorta·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+70–14
Lions ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.08Panthers: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.25Lions: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.01Panthers: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.19Lions: +0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.22Panthers: −0.22 expected points added per play
+0.32Lions: +0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 65 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Lions’s 57 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 4, Lions 6.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
−2.5σtheir own normal+2.5σ
One dot per reading, placed at how far it sits from that club's own normal in that club's own standard deviations. 10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DET's play-action rate, 46.7%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 4.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 28.6% in week 1.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CAR's blitz rate sent, 50.0%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 3.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 31.7% in week 2.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
CAR's play-action rate turned over: 5.1% in week 4 against 20.9% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +9.1 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.42× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Lions14.0%
right on their number · −3.6 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteDET's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 46.7%, 22.0 points above their season mean of 24.7% and 2.0 times their own 11.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Montgomery up+10% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:50) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 9:50 · Lions · 1st & 10 at CAR 42 · gained 42 · +3.53 EP · +10.4% win probability
164 snaps placed · 7 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 81 yards from the DET 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
48%
Yards
719
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59-0.1664%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26+0.2154%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.2556%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.4333%
Panthers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Lions 39
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Panthers0Lions6
Panthers0Lions7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Lions 19 to the Panthers 42
Intercepted6 plays, from the Panthers 17 to the Panthers 31
Panthers0Lions13
Panthers0Lions14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 4
The period ended13 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Lions 29
2nd quarter47 plays
Panthers6Lions14
Panthers7Lions14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 1
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Lions 19 to the Panthers 37
Fumble lost1 play
Panthers7Lions20
Panthers7Lions21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 38 to the Panthers 1
Intercepted2 plays
Panthers7Lions27
Panthers7Lions28
Touchdown2 plays
Panthers10Lions28
Field goal12 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Lions 15
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt15 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Panthers 28
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Panthers 33
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 28 to the Lions 32
Punt5 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Lions 49 to the Panthers 4
4th quarter43 plays
Panthers10Lions34
Panthers10Lions35
Touchdown2 plays
Panthers16Lions35
Panthers17Lions35
Touchdown10 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Lions 18
Panthers17Lions41
Panthers17Lions42
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Panthers 5
Panthers23Lions42
Panthers24Lions42
Touchdown17 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Lions 1
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 45 to the Panthers 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
