2023 Week 5 · Thu, Oct 5, 2023 · FedExField

Chicago BearsWinner

Washington Commanders

WAS -6 upsetO 45.5 ✓Commanders closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Chicago Bears 40–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:16, WAS +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:16CHI 0 — WAS 0CHI ball · 3rd & 9WAS 75%

(14:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at WAS 16 for 58 yards (22-D.Forrest).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:16WAS +14% win prob(14:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at WAS 16 for 58 yards (22-D.Forrest).
Q1 · 12:09WAS +12% win prob(12:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 2:03WAS +9% win prob(2:03) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to CHI 25, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 31 for 6 yards (35-P.Butler).
Q1 · 6:36WAS +8% win prob(6:36) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert right tackle to WAS 13 for 34 yards (57-C.Barton).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:09CHI Touchdown
(12:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 7 — WAS 0
Q1 · 4:20CHI Field goal
(4:20) 8-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: CHI 10 — WAS 0
Q2 · 14:20CHI Touchdown
(14:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 2-D.Moore for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Payne]. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 17 — WAS 0
Q2 · 8:37WAS Field goal
(8:37) 6-J.Slye 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: CHI 17 — WAS 3
Q2 · 2:28CHI Field goal
(2:28) 8-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: CHI 20 — WAS 3
Q2 · 0:27CHI Touchdown
(:27) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 85-C.Kmet for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 27 — WAS 3
Q3 · 12:06WAS Touchdown
(12:06) 78-C.Lucas reported in as eligible. 14-S.Howell pass short right to 82-L.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: CHI 27 — WAS 11
Q3 · 3:20WAS Field goal
(3:20) 6-J.Slye 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: CHI 27 — WAS 14
Q4 · 14:13CHI Field goal
(14:13) 8-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: CHI 30 — WAS 14
Q4 · 10:55WAS Touchdown
(10:55) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 4-C.Samuel for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CHI 30 — WAS 20
Q4 · 4:18CHI Touchdown
(4:18) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 2-D.Moore for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 37 — WAS 20
Q4 · 2:00CHI Field goal
(2:00) 8-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: CHI 40 — WAS 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Commanders
Offensive plays	64	68
Total yards	451 (edge)	390
Yards per play	7.0 (edge)	5.7
Expected points added / play	0.31 (edge)	-0.10
Success rate	42% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	52%	90%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.38 (edge)	-0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	-0.45
Third downs	7/15	6/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	18	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	5
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Sam HowellQB

37/51, 388 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

2.7 expected points added · +11.7% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

15/29, 282 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

11.5 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Khalil HerbertRB

10 att, 76 yds, 0 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

11 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

6.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

D.J. MooreWR

8/10 for 230 yds, 3 TD

40% of team targets · 21.3 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Logan ThomasTE

9/11 for 77 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · -0.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 25	8	75	2:56	Touchdown +7
2	WAS	WAS 25	5	8	2:13	Punt
3	CHI	CHI 26	11	70	5:33	Field goal +3
4	WAS	WAS 25	5	4	2:26	Punt
5	CHI	CHI 31	7	69	2:37	Touchdown +7
6	WAS	WAS 25	12	37	5:42	Field goal +3
7	CHI	CHI 25	14	57	6:09	Field goal +3
8	WAS	WAS 25	2	0	0:05	Interception
9	CHI	WAS 36	7	36	1:55	Touchdown +7
10	WAS	WAS 25	5	35	0:24	End of half
11	WAS	WAS 25	7	52	3:00	Touchdown +8
12	CHI	CHI 25	7	20	2:28	Punt
13	WAS	WAS 30	2	15	0:48	Fumble
14	CHI	WAS 46	4	-5	1:04	Punt
15	WAS	WAS 17	7	70	4:23	Field goal +3
16	CHI	CHI 25	9	50	4:08	Field goal +3
17	WAS	WAS 25	14	75	3:18	Touchdown +6
18	CHI	CHI 25	5	8	1:38	Punt
19	WAS	WAS 20	11	52	4:02	Missed field goal
20	CHI	CHI 36	4	64	1:02	Touchdown +7
21	WAS	WAS 25	5	1	1:39	Turnover on downs
22	CHI	WAS 26	4	7	0:34	Field goal +3
23	WAS	WAS 25	7	41	1:56	End of game

12 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 75 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Fields	15/29	282	4	0	3	11.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Khalil Herbert	10	76	7.6	3.3
Justin Fields	11	57	5.2	6.0
Khari Blasingame	8	26	3.3	-1.7
Roschon Johnson	3	19	6.3	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	8	10	230	3	40%	21.3
Cole Kmet	5	5	42	1	20%	1.9
Robert Tonyan	2	2	10	0	8%	0.3
Khalil Herbert	0	3	0	0	12%	-2.5
Darnell Mooney	0	4	0	0	16%	-3.0
Equanimeous St. Brown	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tyrique Stevenson	4	4	0.0	0	1
Tremaine Edmunds	1	7	0.0	0	0
T.J. Edwards	2	5	1.0	0	0
Greg Stroman	4	3	1.0	1	1
Jaquan Brisker	2	4	0.0	0	0
Terell Smith	3	3	0.0	0	0
Jack Sanborn	3	2	0.0	0	0
Elijah Hicks	2	2	0.0	0	1
Jaylon Jones	2	2	0.0	0	0
DeMarcus Walker	1	2	1.0	0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Howell	37/51	388	2	1	5	2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Sam Howell	4	19	4.8	0	-0.1
Brian Robinson	6	10	1.7	0	-4.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Logan Thomas	9	11	77	1	23%	-0.4
Curtis Samuel	6	7	65	1	15%	2.0
Antonio Gibson	4	6	64	0	13%	2.3
Terry McLaurin	4	5	49	0	10%	2.3
Brian Robinson	4	4	33	0	8%	0.6
Jahan Dotson	3	5	30	0	10%	-0.5
Jamison Crowder	2	2	21	0	4%	1.5
John Bates	2	2	19	0	4%	-1.1
Dyami Brown	1	3	11	0	6%	0.6
Byron Pringle	1	2	10	0	4%	0.1
Cole Turner	1	1	9	0	2%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cody Barton	5	3	0.0	0
Kamren Curl	4	3	0.0	0
Darrick Forrest	6	1	0.0	0
Jonathan Allen	2	5	1.0	0
Montez Sweat	4	2	1.5	1
Daron Payne	1	4	0.0	0
Jamin Davis	2	1	0.0	0
Benjamin St-Juste	3	0	0.0	2
Chase Young	1	1	0.5	1
Kendall Fuller	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: WAS -6
Closing total: 45.5
CHI moneyline: +210
WAS moneyline: -258

Commanders closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 60 — over by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 70°F, wind 1 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: CHI 4 days · WAS 4 days
Coaches: Matt Eberflus vs Ron Rivera