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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Bears168 of 176 plays carry both curves
(14:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at WAS 16 for 58 yards (22-D.Forrest).
Swing −13.8 for CommandersExpected points −5.26 for CommandersThe model had Bears 14 points higher than the market did.play 5
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:16WAS +14% win prob(14:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at WAS 16 for 58 yards (22-D.Forrest).
1st · 12:09WAS +12% win prob(12:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:03WAS +9% win prob(2:03) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to CHI 25, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 31 for 6 yards (35-P.Butler).
1st · 6:36WAS +8% win prob(6:36) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert right tackle to WAS 13 for 34 yards (57-C.Barton).
4th · 6:38WAS +8% win prob(6:38) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin to CHI 23 for 32 yards (27-G.Stroman; 29-T.Stevenson).
1st · 1:52WAS +7% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at WAS 30 for 39 yards (25-B.St-Juste).
3rd · 12:06
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.J. Moore's 20-yard touchdown catch with 12:09 left in the 1st put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 11 scores that followed.
4th2:00Cairo Santos·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder T.Gill · snap P.Scales+340–20
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryCommanders
Bears7–2Commanders
451Total yards390
7.0Yards per play5.7
42%Success rate41%
47%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
10Explosive plays6
18First downs25
3Sacks taken5
0Turnovers2
The read
Bears ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.31Bears: +0.31 expected points added per play
−0.10Commanders: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.38Bears: +0.38 expected points added per play
−0.06Commanders: −0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.23Bears: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.45Commanders: −0.45 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 64 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Commanders’s 68 at 90%. Red-zone trips: Bears 7, Commanders 3.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
WAS's early-down pass rate, 90.6%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 12.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 73.2% in week 3.
2.6 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 4.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
WAS's pass rate over expected, +17.8 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 6.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +10.8 pts in week 3.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
WAS's play-action rate, 6.6%, is past their previous low of 12.8% in week 1 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
61 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 25 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 61 dropbacks
Commanders24.2%
leaned — got home · +11.7 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteWAS's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 90.6%, 26.0 points above their season mean of 64.6% and 2.6 times their own 10.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Fields pass+16% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at WAS 16 for 58 yards (22-D.Forrest).
Q1 14:16 · Bears · 3rd & 9 at CHI 26 · gained 58 · +5.26 EP · +15.6% win probability
166 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 75 yards from the CHI 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
40%
Yards
841
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61-0.1484%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27-0.2044%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.9363%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.2420%
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.2140%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.0380%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Bears6Commanders0
Bears7Commanders0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Commanders 16
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 34
Bears10Commanders0
Field goal11 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Commanders 4
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 28
The period ended5 plays, from the Bears 31 to the Commanders 15
2nd quarter46 plays
Bears16Commanders0
Bears17Commanders0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Commanders 15 to the Commanders 11
Bears17Commanders3
Field goal13 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Bears 33
Bears20Commanders3
Field goal14 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Commanders 18
Intercepted2 plays
Bears26Commanders3
Bears27Commanders3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Commanders 36 to the Commanders 4
The period ended7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 36
3rd quarter36 plays
Bears27Commanders9
Bears27Commanders11
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Bears 2
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 45
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Commanders 37
Punt5 plays
Bears27Commanders14
Field goal7 plays, from the Commanders 17 to the Bears 13
The period ended7 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Commanders 31
4th quarter57 plays
Bears30Commanders14
Field goal3 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Commanders 25
Bears30Commanders20
Touchdown14 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Bears 3
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 33
No good11 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Bears 23
Bears36Commanders20
Bears37Commanders20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bears 36 to the Bears 44
Turnover on downs5 plays
Bears40Commanders20
Field goal6 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Commanders 19
The period ended8 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Bears 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
