2023 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 8, 2023 · State Farm Stadium

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

Arizona Cardinals

CIN -3 ✓O 45.5 ✓DomeBengals closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.

Cincinnati Bengals 34–20. Biggest swing: Q2 1:30, CIN +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 1:30CIN 16 — ARI 14ARI ball · 2nd & 10CIN 60%

(1:30) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short right intended for 0-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Taylor-Britt at ARI 11. 29-C.Taylor-Britt for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 1:30CIN +15% win prob(1:30) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short right intended for 0-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Taylor-Britt at ARI 11. 29-C.Taylor-Britt for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 13:47ARI +13% win prob(13:47) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 1:49CIN +13% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs right end to CIN 17 for -1 yards (57-G.Pratt).
Q2 · 12:30ARI +11% win prob(12:30) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass deep right to 2-M.Brown for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:15CIN Touchdown
(7:15) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 7 — ARI 0
Q1 · 1:50CIN Field goal
(1:50) 2-E.McPherson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Score after this play: CIN 10 — ARI 0
Q2 · 12:30ARI Touchdown
(12:30) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass deep right to 2-M.Brown for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 10 — ARI 7
Q2 · 8:31ARI Touchdown
(8:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 10 — ARI 14
Q2 · 1:30CIN Touchdown
(1:30) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short right intended for 0-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Taylor-Britt at ARI 11. 29-C.Taylor-Britt for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 17 — ARI 14
Q3 · 13:47CIN Touchdown
(13:47) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 24 — ARI 14
Q3 · 7:39ARI Touchdown
(7:39) 31-E.Demercado left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CIN 24 — ARI 20
Q4 · 7:54CIN Touchdown
(7:54) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 31 — ARI 20
Q4 · 6:36CIN Field goal
(6:36) 2-E.McPherson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Score after this play: CIN 34 — ARI 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Cardinals
Offensive plays	78	57
Total yards	381 (edge)	294
Yards per play	4.9	5.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.01 (edge)	-0.29
Success rate	53% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	65%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	-0.45
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.35	-0.05 (edge)
Third downs	5/14	4/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.29.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

36/46, 317 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

9.5 expected points added · +9.7% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Joshua DobbsQB

15/32, 166 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-15.7 expected points added · -14.6% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

25 att, 81 yds, 0 TD

-8.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

6 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

15/19 for 192 yds, 3 TD

43% of team targets · 17.1 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Marquise BrownWR

4/10 for 61 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 25	5	-3	1:41	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 36	12	64	6:10	Touchdown +7
3	ARI	ARI 25	5	3	1:18	Punt
4	CIN	ARI 48	8	26	4:05	Field goal +3
5	ARI	ARI 25	11	75	4:21	Touchdown +7
6	CIN	CIN 25	5	-4	1:44	Punt
7	ARI	CIN 49	6	49	2:13	Touchdown +7
8	CIN	CIN 25	5	3	1:03	Punt
9	ARI	ARI 30	4	0	0:25	Punt
10	CIN	CIN 29	13	70	5:27	Turnover on downs
11	ARI	ARI 1	2	0	0:10	Defensive touchdown
12	ARI	ARI 25	5	6	0:23	Punt
13	CIN	CIN 26	5	11	1:00	Turnover on downs
14	CIN	CIN 25	5	75	1:21	Touchdown +7
15	ARI	ARI 25	13	75	6:06	Touchdown +6
16	CIN	CIN 25	9	30	3:47	Interception
17	ARI	ARI 34	5	49	2:03	Turnover on downs
18	CIN	CIN 17	16	82	8:55	Touchdown +7
19	ARI	ARI 25	2	0	0:07	Fumble
20	CIN	ARI 28	5	16	1:08	Field goal +3
21	ARI	ARI 25	5	8	1:37	Interception
22	CIN	ARI 48	4	3	1:40	Punt
23	ARI	ARI 7	7	30	1:06	Turnover on downs
24	CIN	ARI 37	4	5	1:50	Turnover on downs
25	ARI	ARI 33	1	2	0:20	End of game

8 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 82 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	36/46	317	3	1	3	9.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	25	81	3.2	-8.0
Joe Burrow	4	7	1.8	-1.7
Trayveon Williams	1	5	5.0	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	15	19	192	3	43%	17.1
Trenton Irwin	8	10	60	0	23%	-0.2
Tyler Boyd	6	7	39	0	16%	1.6
Joe Mixon	4	4	13	0	9%	-1.0
Andrei Iosivas	1	2	9	0	5%	-0.7
Chase Brown	1	1	2	0	2%	-0.5
Kwamie Lassiter	1	1	2	0	2%	0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Germaine Pratt	3	7	0.0	1	1
Logan Wilson	4	5	0.0	0	1
Mike Hilton	4	0	0.0	0	0
Trey Hendrickson	2	2	2.5	0	1
Dax Hill	1	2	0.5	0	0
D.J. Turner	2	1	0.0	0	1
D.J. Reader	1	2	0.0	0	0
Nick Scott	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jordan Battle	2	0	0.0	0	2
Sam Hubbard	2	0	0.0	0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joshua Dobbs	15/32	166	2	2	3	-15.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rondale Moore	3	50	16.7	0	2.2
James Conner	6	46	7.7	0	0.8
Emari Demercado	10	45	4.5	1	0.0
Joshua Dobbs	3	1	0.3	0	-4.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Brown	4	10	61	1	33%	1.5
Rondale Moore	3	5	26	0	17%	-1.2
Geoff Swaim	2	2	22	0	7%	2.4
Michael Wilson	1	2	18	0	7%	0.6
Trey McBride	2	3	17	0	10%	0.3
Emari Demercado	1	3	12	0	10%	-0.7
Zach Ertz	2	4	10	1	13%	-1.5
Zach Pascal	0	1	0	0	3%	-6.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Marco Wilson	8	3	0.0	0	0
Kyzir White	5	4	0.0	0	0
K'Von Wallace	3	3	0.0	1	1
Antonio Hamilton	5	1	0.0	0	0
Victor Dimukeje	3	2	0.0	0	0
Josh Woods	3	2	0.0	0	0
Kevin Strong	4	1	1.0	0	0
Dante Stills	2	2	1.0	0	0
Kei'Trel Clark	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jalen Thompson	3	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -3
Closing total: 45.5
CIN moneyline: -170
ARI moneyline: +142

Bengals closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 54 — over by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: CIN 7 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Jonathan Gannon