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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 8, 2023 · State Farm Stadium
Final
BengalsCincinnati34
BY 14final margin
CardinalsArizona20
Cincinnati Bengals 34 at Arizona Cardinals 20. Final.
Bengals -3 ✓O 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 5
Cincinnati Bengals 34, Cardinals 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 1:30, 2nd and 10, on Cam Taylor-Britt — 15.1 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:30 · 2nd and 10
Cam Taylor-Britt
Bengals
(1:30) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short right intended for 0-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Taylor-Britt at ARI 11. 29-C.Taylor-Britt for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Bengals closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.
Cincinnati Bengals 34–20. Biggest swing: Q2 1:30, Bengals +15.1% win probability on one snap.
15.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ja'Marr ChaseBengalsQ3 13:47(13:47) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.3pts
Joshua DobbsBengalsQ3 1:49(1:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs right end to CIN 17 for -1 yards (57-G.Pratt).
13.1pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Bengals won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.20 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.45 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — 1 giveaway, against Cardinals at 3 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — +0.01 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.29 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Bengals169 of 182 plays carry both curves
(1:30) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short right intended for 0-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Taylor-Britt at ARI 11. 29-C.Taylor-Britt for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −15.1 for CardinalsExpected points −6.84 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 19 points higher than the market did.play 81
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:30CIN +15% win prob(1:30) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short right intended for 0-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Taylor-Britt at ARI 11. 29-C.Taylor-Britt for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 13:47ARI +13% win prob(13:47) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:49CIN +13% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs right end to CIN 17 for -1 yards (57-G.Pratt).
2nd · 12:30ARI +11% win prob(12:30) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass deep right to 2-M.Brown for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 3:46ARI +10% win prob(3:46) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 4-R.Moore. 4-R.Moore left end pushed ob at CIN 25 for 41 yards (55-L.Wilson).
2nd · 10:36ARI +10% win prob(10:36) 6-J.Conner up the middle to CIN 14 for 35 yards (20-D.Turner, 57-G.Pratt).
3rd · 3:51
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cam Taylor-Britt's 11-yard touchdown with 1:30 left in the 2nd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:15Ja'Marr Chase·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+77–0
1st1:50Evan McPherson·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder B.Robbins · snap C.Adomitis+310–0
3rd13:47Ja'Marr Chase·63-yd TD catch63-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+724–14
3rd7:39Emari Demercado·11-yd TD run11-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+624–20
4th7:54Ja'Marr Chase·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+731–20
4th6:36Evan McPherson·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder B.Robbins · snap C.Adomitis+334–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryCardinals
Bengals4–3Cardinals
381Total yards294
4.9Yards per play5.2
53%Success rate33%
36%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays4
26First downs15
3Sacks taken3
1Turnovers3
The read
Bengals ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Bengals: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.29Cardinals: −0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Bengals: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.45Cardinals: −0.45 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.35Bengals: −0.35 expected points added per play
−0.05Cardinals: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 78 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 57 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 6, Cardinals 4.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.29.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 26 pts
right on their number · +3.5 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Cardinals7.8%
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
NoteCIN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 37.1%, 12.6 points above their season mean of 24.6% and 1.2 times their own 10.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Dobbs pass−21% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:30) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short right intended for 0-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Taylor-Britt at ARI 11. 29-C.Taylor-Britt for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 1:30 · Cardinals · 2nd & 10 at ARI 1 · gained nothing · -6.84 EP · −21.5% win probability
167 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 83 yards from the CIN 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
39%
Yards
674
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56+0.2868%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.5468%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.7131%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.5350%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.0160%
Bengals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 30
Bengals6Cardinals0
Bengals7Cardinals0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bengals 36 to the Cardinals 2
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 28
Bengals10Cardinals0
Field goal8 plays, from the Cardinals 48 to the Cardinals 7
The period ended5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 39
2nd quarter61 plays
Bengals10Cardinals6
Bengals10Cardinals7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 43 to the Bengals 25
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 29
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Offense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backs
Bengals10Cardinals13
Bengals10Cardinals14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bengals 49 to the Bengals 3
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 28
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxTen defenders
The period ended16 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Cardinals 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Bengals16Cardinals14
Touchdown3 plays
Bengals17Cardinals14
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 31
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Bengals 26 to the Bengals 44
3rd quarter36 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Bengals23Cardinals14
Bengals24Cardinals14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 37
Bengals24Cardinals20
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Bengals 11
Intercepted9 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Cardinals 45
How the play was built
A trick play, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Cardinals 34 to the Bengals 16
The period ended4 plays, from the Bengals 17 to the Bengals 28
4th quarter49 plays
Bengals30Cardinals20
Bengals31Cardinals20
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bengals 38 to the Cardinals 1
Fumble lost2 plays
Bengals34Cardinals20
Field goal8 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Cardinals 17
Intercepted5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 33
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 48 to the Cardinals 39
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Cardinals 7 to the Cardinals 37
The period ended5 plays, from the Cardinals 37 to the Cardinals 32
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bengals -3
Closing total
45.5
Bengals moneyline
-170
Cardinals moneyline
+142
Bengals closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 54 — over by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Bengals 7 days · Cardinals 7 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Jonathan Gannon
CIN +9% win prob
(3:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 16-T.Irwin INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Wallace [97-C.Thomas] at ARI 32. 22-K.Wallace to ARI 34 for 2 yards (16-T.Irwin).
2nd · 8:31ARI +8% win prob(8:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
