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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 8, 2023 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 5
It turned at Q1 0:47, 1st and 10, on Tony Pollard — 8.8 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 0:47 · 1st and 10
Tony Pollard
49ers
(:47) 20-T.Pollard left end to DAL 9 for 4 yards (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), touched at DAL 9, RECOVERED by SF-90-K.Givens at DAL 16. 90-K.Givens ran ob at DAL 16 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
San Francisco 49ers 42–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 0:47, 49ers +8.8% win probability on one snap.
8.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.67 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.45 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 61% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cowboys at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at -0.45 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Cowboys at 4 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
(:47) 20-T.Pollard left end to DAL 9 for 4 yards (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), touched at DAL 9, RECOVERED by SF-90-K.Givens at DAL 16. 90-K.Givens ran ob at DAL 16 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the l
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
George Kittle's 19-yard touchdown catch with 11:16 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
George Kittle19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Brock PurdyLead never changed again+70–78 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cowboyscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.67 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 48 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against 49ers’s 66 at 39%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 2, 49ers 7.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.45.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's early-down pass rate, 35.2%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 1.8 points clear of the next team along.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
SF's sack or hit rate, 26.7%, is past their previous high of 17.6% in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
SF's play-action rate, 34.6%, is past their previous high of 25.6% in week 3 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
DAL's play-action rate, 13.3%, is past their previous low of 15.6% in week 3 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Cowboys-2.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 3.1 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 48 snaps
49ers-7.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −5.2 vs their -2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−1.16× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 79%
Tendencies room →Cowboys62.2%inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 56.9%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 37 early downs
49ers35.2%leaned — ran early · −15.0 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−1.47× that swing) · 54 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 48%
Tendencies room →Cowboys13.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −12.0 vs their 25.3%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.37× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
49ers34.6%leaned — faked the run · +14.3 vs their 20.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.65× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26% to 119%
Fourth Down room →Cowboys—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 46.7%.
49ers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 60%
Tendencies room →Cowboys34.6%right on their number · +5.5 vs their 29.1%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
49ers13.3%inside their normal wobble · −7.6 vs their 20.9%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 32%
Tendencies room →Cowboys7.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.1 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
49ers26.7%leaned — got home · +10.1 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.73× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
SF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.7%, 10.1 points above their season mean of 16.6% and 1.7 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
17/24, 252 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
18.5 expected points added · +5.8% completion over expected
Passing · DAL
14/24, 153 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
-12.2 expected points added · -4.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
George Kittle banked 17.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George KittleTE · Rotational Receiver | 27.7 | +17.6 | 79% | 92% | 16% | 21% | 3/4, 67 yd, 3 TD |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 26.1 | +10.4 | 85% | — | 0% | — | 17/24, 252 yd, 4 TD |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Committee Back | 13.8 | −6.6 | 73% | 92% | 12% | 0% | 19 car, 51 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 27 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB | 12.9 | +6.6 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 10 car, 69 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB · Receiving Back | 12.6 | +2.0 | 39% | 54% | 16% | 1% | 4/4, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.5 | +1.4 | 73% | 73% | 12% | 15% | 5 car, 30 yd · 3/3, 55 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.8 | −3.3 | 79% | 85% | 28% | 49% | 4/7, 58 yd |
| Kavontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.6 | +7.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| CeeDee LambWR · Featured Receiver | 8.9 | +1.1 | 69% | 87% | 19% | 15% | 4/5, 49 yd |
| Tony PollardRB · Committee Back | 8.4 | −2.0 | 69% | 80% | 19% | 1% | 8 car, 29 yd · 4/5, 35 yd |
| Jake FergusonTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | +1.8 | 69% | 77% | 12% | 2% | 3/3, 28 yd |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 4.3 | −3.5 | 80% | — | 0% | — | 14/24, 153 yd, 1 TD, 3 INT · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Michael GallupWR · Featured Receiver | 3.5 | −3.4 | 82% | 87% | 19% | 29% | 2/5, 15 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +0.8 | 38% | 38% | 4% | 9% | 1/1, 19 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −5.7 | 65% | 80% | 15% | 40% | 1 car, 6 yd · 1/4, 7 yd |
| Tyrion Davis-PriceRB | 2.1 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Deuce VaughnRB | 1.8 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Rico DowdleRB | 1.5 | −2.5 | 20% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 5 car, 15 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.6 | 18% | 12% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Cooper RushQB | 0.1 | −0.2 | 20% | — | 0% | — | 2/2, 8 yd · 1 car, -2 yd |
| Hunter LuepkeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Luke SchoonmakerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 41% | 23% | 4% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Sean McKeonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ronnie BellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 20% | 12% | 4% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Sam DarnoldQB | -0.1 | −0.3 | 15% | — | 0% | — | 1/1, 1 yd · 1 car, -1 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(15:00) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to DAL 2 for 8 yards (2-J.Lewis). FUMBLES (2-J.Lewis), RECOVERED by DAL-2-J.Lewis at DAL 2.
Q2 15:00 · 49ers · 2nd & 4 at DAL 10 · gained 8 · -4.58 EP · −10.3% win probability
151 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 159 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 80 yards from the SF 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cowboys0
49ers6Cowboys049ers7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Cowboys049ers13Cowboys049ers14Cowboys649ers14Cowboys749ers14Cowboys749ers20Cowboys749ers21Cowboys1049ers21Cowboys1049ers27Cowboys1049ers28Cowboys1049ers34Cowboys1049ers35Cowboys1049ers41Cowboys1049ers42Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cowboys at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 14/24 | 153 | 1 | 3 | 3 | −12.2 |
| Cooper Rush | 2/2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −1.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 | −6.0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Deuce Vaughn |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 19% | +2.7 |
| Tony Pollard | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 19% | +0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leighton Vander Esch | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Wilson | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damone Clark | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephon Gilmore |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 17/24 | 252 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +18.5 |
| Sam Darnold | 1/1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.1 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_05_DAL_SF
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 32.
Total closed 45; the game landed 52 — over by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 7 |
| 2.3 |
| 0 |
| −1.6 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Cooper Rush | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Jake Ferguson | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 12% | +1.5 |
| Kavontae Turpin | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1 | 4% | +3.6 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 19% | −5.4 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 15% | −8.9 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Rico Dowdle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Malik Hooker | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayron Kearse | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Bland | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Markquese Bell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnathan Hankins | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Malik Jefferson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 10 | 69 | 6.9 | 1 | +3.7 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 19 | 51 | 2.7 | 1 | −5.3 |
| Deebo Samuel | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Tyrion Davis-Price | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 3 | 4 | 67 | 3 | 16% | +6.9 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 4 | 7 | 58 | 0 | 28% | +2.2 |
| Deebo Samuel | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 12% | +5.9 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 12% | +0.4 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 4 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 16% | +3.6 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 4% | +2.0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| Jordan Mason | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Ronnie Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Oren Burks | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nick Bosa | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Ambry Thomas | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Odum | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin Givens | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Clelin Ferrell | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
