2023 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 8, 2023 · Levi's Stadium

Dallas Cowboys

San Francisco 49ersWinner

SF -3.5 ✓O 45 ✓49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 32.

San Francisco 49ers 42–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 0:47, DAL +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 0:47DAL 0 — SF 7DAL ball · 1st & 10SF 76%

(:47) 20-T.Pollard left end to DAL 9 for 4 yards (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), touched at DAL 9, RECOVERED by SF-90-K.Givens at DAL 16. 90-K.Givens ran ob at DAL 16 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the l

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 0:47DAL +9% win prob(:47) 20-T.Pollard left end to DAL 9 for 4 yards (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), touched at DAL 9, RECOVERED by SF-90-K.Givens at DAL 16. 90-K.Givens ran ob at DAL 16 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q2 · 13:26SF +8% win prob(13:26) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-O.Odighizuwa].
Q2 · 15:00DAL +8% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle to DAL 2 for 8 yards (2-J.Lewis). FUMBLES (2-J.Lewis), RECOVERED by DAL-2-J.Lewis at DAL 2.
Q2 · 7:51SF +7% win prob(7:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 9-K.Turpin for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-A.Armstead].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:16SF Touchdown
(11:16) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DAL 0 — SF 7
Q2 · 13:26SF Touchdown
(13:26) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-O.Odighizuwa]. (kick good)
Score after this play: DAL 0 — SF 14
Q2 · 7:51DAL Touchdown
(7:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 9-K.Turpin for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-A.Armstead]. (kick good)
Score after this play: DAL 7 — SF 14
Q2 · 2:40SF Touchdown
(2:40) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-65-A.Banks, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)
Score after this play: DAL 7 — SF 21
Q3 · 11:58DAL Field goal
(11:58) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: DAL 10 — SF 21
Q3 · 7:24SF Touchdown
(7:24) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DAL 10 — SF 28
Q4 · 14:22SF Touchdown
(14:22) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 44-K.Juszczyk for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DAL 10 — SF 35
Q4 · 14:05SF Touchdown
(14:05) 24-J.Mason left end for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL-55-L.Vander Esch was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: DAL 10 — SF 42

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	49ers
Offensive plays	48	66
Total yards	199	422 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	6.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.45	0.20 (edge)
Success rate	35%	61% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	39%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.45	0.67 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.44	-0.10 (edge)
Third downs	4/11	6/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	8	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	4	1 (edge)

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.45.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

17/24, 252 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

18.5 expected points added · +5.8% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

14/24, 153 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-12.2 expected points added · -4.0% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Jordan MasonRB

10 att, 69 yds, 1 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

19 att, 51 yds, 1 TD

-5.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

3/4 for 67 yds, 3 TD

16% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

4/7 for 58 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 25	9	55	3:50	Touchdown +7
2	DAL	DAL 25	5	1	0:50	Punt
3	SF	SF 23	4	8	1:34	Punt
4	DAL	DAL 21	4	1	1:52	Punt
5	SF	SF 30	12	29	6:07	Punt
6	DAL	DAL 5	1	4	0:09	Fumble
7	SF	DAL 16	2	14	0:42	Fumble
8	DAL	DAL 2	4	2	1:30	Punt
9	SF	DAL 38	2	38	0:10	Touchdown +7
10	DAL	DAL 22	13	78	5:31	Touchdown +7
11	SF	SF 25	11	60	5:09	Touchdown +7
12	DAL	DAL 34	5	8	0:45	Punt
13	SF	SF 18	4	8	1:01	Punt
14	DAL	DAL 25	2	-1	0:50	End of half
15	DAL	DAL 29	7	39	3:07	Field goal +3
16	SF	SF 25	9	90	4:33	Touchdown +7
17	DAL	DAL 21	4	16	1:19	Interception
18	SF	SF 38	13	62	6:42	Touchdown +7
19	DAL	DAL 25	3	0	0:14	Interception
20	SF	DAL 26	2	26	0:06	Touchdown +7
21	DAL	DAL 25	4	33	1:09	Interception
22	SF	SF 47	6	13	4:03	Punt
23	DAL	DAL 1	7	11	3:55	Punt
24	SF	SF 46	5	19	2:58	Turnover on downs
25	DAL	DAL 40	4	7	1:44	Turnover on downs
26	SF	DAL 30	1	0	0:10	End of game

8 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 90 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	14/24	153	1	3	3	-12.2
Cooper Rush	2/2	8	0	0	1	-1.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Tony Pollard	8	29	3.6	-6.0
Rico Dowdle	5	15	3.0	-1.3
Deuce Vaughn	3	7	2.3	-1.6
Brandin Cooks	1	6	6.0	0.5
Dak Prescott	1	2	2.0	0.5
Cooper Rush	1	-2	-2.0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
CeeDee Lamb	4	5	49	0	19%	2.7
Tony Pollard	4	5	35	0	19%	0.8
Jake Ferguson	3	3	28	0	12%	1.5
Kavontae Turpin	1	1	26	1	4%	3.6
Michael Gallup	2	5	15	0	19%	-5.4
Brandin Cooks	1	4	7	0	15%	-8.9
Deuce Vaughn	1	1	1	0	4%	-0.6
Rico Dowdle	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4
Luke Schoonmaker	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Leighton Vander Esch	4	6	0.0	0
Donovan Wilson	5	2	0.0	0
Damone Clark	3	4	0.0	0
Stephon Gilmore	4	1	0.0	1
Malik Hooker	2	3	0.0	0
Jayron Kearse	4	0	1.0	0
Daron Bland	1	2	0.0	1
Markquese Bell	1	2	0.0	0
Johnathan Hankins	2	1	0.0	2
Malik Jefferson	1	1	0.0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	17/24	252	4	0	1	18.5
Sam Darnold	1/1	1	0	0	0	-1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jordan Mason	10	69	6.9	1	3.7
Christian McCaffrey	19	51	2.7	1	-5.3
Deebo Samuel	5	30	6.0	0	1.2
Tyrion Davis-Price	6	21	3.5	0	-3.7
Sam Darnold	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	3	4	67	3	16%	6.9
Brandon Aiyuk	4	7	58	0	28%	2.2
Deebo Samuel	3	3	55	0	12%	5.9
Christian McCaffrey	2	3	27	0	12%	0.4
Kyle Juszczyk	4	4	26	1	16%	3.6
Jauan Jennings	1	1	19	0	4%	2.0
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	1	1	0	4%	-1.1
Jordan Mason	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Ronnie Bell	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Fred Warner	5	3	1.0	1	1
Oren Burks	2	3	0.0	1	1
Nick Bosa	2	2	0.5	0	0
Ambry Thomas	3	1	0.0	0	0
George Odum	2	2	0.0	0	0
Isaiah Oliver	1	2	0.0	0	0
Dre Greenlaw	3	0	1.0	0	1
Kevin Givens	1	1	1.0	0	0
Clelin Ferrell	2	0	0.0	0	0
Deommodore Lenoir	0	2	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -3.5
Closing total: 45
DAL moneyline: +150
SF moneyline: -180

49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 32.

Total closed 45; the game landed 52 — over by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 78°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: DAL 7 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Mike McCarthy vs Kyle Shanahan